Does the martingale system really work? | Page 25 | Crypto Craft

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Does the martingale system really work?

  • #481
  • Feb 12, 2014 12:11am Feb 12, 2014 12:11am
@COGSx86: sorry, I just deleted my prior post, as I realized that it might break forum rules/etiquette.
  • #482
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:49am Feb 12, 2014 11:49am
Quoting COGSx86
What makes a pro card player a pro card player or a pro trader a pro trader?
There are market situations, whether one believes it or not, that would be the equivalent of having pocket 10s in a Texas Hold 'em game. Using Martingale with any poker hand, 2,10 to A,A, is a lot different than using Martingale after a 10,10 loss, then a 9,9 loss, then A,K, with your fourth being Q,J. It is up to the card player to discriminate against hands that do not stand as great a chance and not apply their methodology to that hand, whether those would have turned out winners or not.

If the utilities sector on the stock market is being completely battered, and none of the megas are making money, using Martingale to long it will not have the same probability of working as trading a mining sector that has megas improving their numbers, that have also already gone down 50% as a whole in the past 52 weeks. A trader can use a system like Martingale, as as they can any other system, so long as they do apply a certain amount of their own insight and reason.

Everyone is looking for the "Holy Grail". It doesn't exist.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #483
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:14pm Feb 12, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} I see where you are coming from, around mathematical studies on "these system" but why then are there millionaires and billionaires, did they use martingale ? Or said differently, statistically speaking isnt it far to say the percentile curve for traders who are located in the upper 95 percentile can have the ability to form a martingale approach ? What about traders who have found ways to gauge sentiment + technical analysis instead of some code that is unable to gauge the fluctuations and rate of change of the market, news events, or even...
Very simple to answer in one line:

99.6% of Forex Retail Traders lose money.

These are official stats directly from the RETAIL FOREX BROKERS.

We didn't know this 10 years ago. But since 2012, RETAIL FOREX BROKERS are forced to report their stats to the government.

If someone is so stupid or Naive to enter a business where 99.6% of people lose money, and they think they will make a lot of money or make a living, they will eventually face the sad truth.

Just my two cents.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #484
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:53pm Feb 12, 2014 3:53pm
Whatever you do, don't do Martingale.
Forex is a losers game.
  • #485
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:19pm Feb 12, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
...........Just my 3 cents.
Quoting MapleLeaf
..........Just my two cents.
Currency fluctuation?
  • #486
  • Feb 12, 2014 4:21pm Feb 12, 2014 4:21pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} {quote} Currency fluctuation?
I think next is... one cent ?
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #487
  • Feb 12, 2014 7:00pm Feb 12, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} {quote} Currency fluctuation?
Bitcoin Cents.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #488
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:10pm Feb 12, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} {quote} Currency fluctuation?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #489
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:36pm Feb 13, 2014 4:36pm
Does Martingale work? Mathematically yes, practically it works fine for the brokers. For traders it's a dark pool of death.
  • #490
  • Feb 13, 2014 5:09pm Feb 13, 2014 5:09pm
Sorry for post here, I am new, can't open post.

I have one question
Why commodities and indices have month date? FEB-14?
  • #491
  • Feb 15, 2014 9:42pm Feb 15, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting Alon1972
Sorry for post here, I am new, can't open post. I have one question Why commodities and indices have month date? FEB-14?
FEB-14 means Feb 2014 (not Feb 14th). It represents the expiry date for options and futures. Monthly US stock options expire on the third Friday of each month; I'm not sure about futures (but see Google results here and here, for example).
  • #492
  • Apr 8, 2014 1:55pm Apr 8, 2014 1:55pm
I think the original question should get more importance. Of course Martingale will fail eventually, but does a modified version last and give results? I saw suggestions of Martingale + Grid + Hedge. There have been some interesting attempts of experience traders on how to use the system. Can all those who just dissagree with the Margingale system step aside for a while and give others the oportunity to discuss modefied Margingale systems?

I mean we have already read a 100 times now that it doesn't work and will fail eventually. Sorry no offense.

Thanks
Brendan
  • #493
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:56pm Apr 8, 2014 2:56pm
i must be fecking bored, lol, btw, i have developed a few awesome martingale systems......i no longer use them.

but before i step away, i still try to leave a piece of advice:

the martingale systems, ok, modified ones, awesome ones, may be really existing, however not on FF.

i tell you one of the most essential characteristics of a successful martingale system:

every sequence of trades may produce an equity growth of 20+% instead of 2%

by 'sequence', i mean, you enter 1st, losing, you enter 2nd, losing, you enter 3rd, winning all back. this 1,2,3 are three trades, but one sequence.

it might not be 20+%, it could well be 15% or 35%, but you get the point.......

why all martingale/grid system in commercial section@FF are crap is, i believe, partially because they fail to pass this criteria above.

Quoting bmcgowra
I think the original question should get more importance. Of course Martingale will fail eventually, but does a modified version last and give results? I saw suggestions of Martingale + Grid + Hedge. There have been some interesting attempts of experience traders on how to use the system. Can all those who just dissagree with the Margingale system step aside for a while and give others the oportunity to discuss modefied Margingale systems? I mean we have already read a 100 times now that it doesn't work and will fail eventually. Sorry no offense....
  • #494
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:26pm Apr 8, 2014 3:26pm
I know but 1 good modified martingale system. In theory these only work assuming the probability that the trade is in the money increases with every step, as Hanover has pointed out before on this same thread. In practice this sine qua non of edge is very difficult to validate sufficiently, because the larger the number of martingale steps required, the smaller the sample is. Thus, in practice those later steps with increased position size tend to have less statistical significance than the first steps. This 'paradox' alone should illustrate how difficult it is to work these ideas into 'something', and how dangerous they can be...
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #495
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:36am Apr 9, 2014 2:36am
Quoting charvo
every sequence of trades may produce an equity growth of 20+% instead of 2%{quote}
charvo, I don't understand your point. I trade a martingale since february, look at my explorer and it produces a fraction of percentage of equity growth per cycle instead of those 20%+ you talk about.

You never know how long a cycle will be, it can be of 1 single trade so to have 20% return you should bet big from the very beginning and that can easily blow out your account if your cycle lasts 10 trades or more...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #496
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:59am Apr 9, 2014 4:59am
Quoting bmcgowra
I think the original question should get more importance. Of course Martingale will fail eventually, but does a modified version last and give results? I saw suggestions of Martingale + Grid + Hedge. There have been some interesting attempts of experience traders on how to use the system. Can all those who just dissagree with the Margingale system step aside for a while and give others the oportunity to discuss modefied Margingale systems? I mean we have already read a 100 times now that it doesn't work and will fail eventually. Sorry no offense....
I'm open let's do ;-)
The original marty doubles the bet after each loss. So the losses accumulate as 1+2+4+8+16+32+..+2^k. This is exponential, O(2^k). No way to survive. Not even short term.
The grid martingale adds to the losers every X pips. The losses accumulate as X(1+2+3+4+...+k). This is quadratic, O(n^2). No way to survive more than short term.
I could find a linear loss martingale: X(1+1+1+...). But it still needs to reach the profit at or before the 4th step with more than 93% probability to survive. I can't guaranty that.
A sub-linear method would require to bet less and less but this would require an exponentially increasing TP. The time to recover and take profit would also increase exponentially.

An example of linear martingale is also here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=478482 . Despite the title, it is of course a losing game.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #497
  • Apr 9, 2014 6:49am Apr 9, 2014 6:49am
Quoting SemperAugust
Does Martingale work? Mathematically yes, practically it works fine for the brokers. For traders it's a dark pool of death.
Very risky method. I also have dark memories with it. Luckily got away at the right time
  • #498
  • Apr 9, 2014 7:48am Apr 9, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Qualm01
Anyway i tell you what?You can not make money from trading without Martingale...
I always either prove my points or I clearly write in my posts that I don't know. Can you yourself prove such a bold statement?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #499
  • Apr 9, 2014 8:07am Apr 9, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Qualm01
Guess who's back? ...It is funny to see same people under threads which is subject' martingale also they still believe that martingale won t work...They know theirself...Anyway i tell you what?You can not make money from trading without Martingale...At best maybe break even if you don t get frustrated (revenge trade vs....) and follow ur strategy' rules with disipline..
Thank you for making me LOL
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #500
  • Apr 9, 2014 9:28am Apr 9, 2014 9:28am
what i implied is in fact it is reckless gambling. reckless gambling in trading or in our life is in fact okay sometimes for some people. but if you do, you should make sure that it is worthy.

if within, say, 5~10 sequence, you can double your account, then try it. if NOT, then it'll be too risky, doing it would be stupid gambling for little gain.

99% crap martingale can only grow equity by 1~2% per sequence, that's too slow.

ultimately, for longterm trading professionals, or who takes trading seriously, martingale is not useful. it is only expanding the risk to wipe-out, while almost impossible to help likelihood to win. only traders without an edge in the market will desperately resort to its application.

nubcake has elaborated this very well in several posts in this thread (page x~1x) on martingale shit. highly recommended! he converted me, lol.

Quoting broketrader
{quote} charvo, I don't understand your point. I trade a martingale since february, look at my explorer and it produces a fraction of percentage of equity growth per cycle instead of those 20%+ you talk about. You never know how long a cycle will be, it can be of 1 single trade so to have 20% return you should bet big from the very beginning and that can easily blow out your account if your cycle lasts 10 trades or more...
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