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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,001
  • Jan 31, 2014 5:37am Jan 31, 2014 5:37am
Quoting venzen
{quote} It may take long but it may also happen in a couple of weeks (once advance starts). Why I prefer the "sudden advance" scenario over "ranging meanderings" is because of a) the chart history and b) the speed of adoption - a year ago only very few people even knew Bitcoin existed and up to 4 months ago it was hard to find an article about Bitcoin and when you did it generally was being ridiculed as a libertarian creation taken over by the crime world. Now we've got banks saying it's a "game changer", the world's biggest retailers scrambling...
Well said..You are one clued up dude.....
Money Makes Money
  • #2,002
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:18am Jan 31, 2014 7:18am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Well said..You are one clued up dude.....
thanks for saying KiwiOz. If i could nail targets with the simple ease of your charts - THEN i'd consider myself clued up!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,003
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:26am Jan 31, 2014 7:26am
popped up in my BTC news finder just now:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/us-says-bit...120147567.html
US Says Bitcoin Miners and Investors are not Money Transmitters ...
38 mins ago - 'US Says Bitcoin Miners and Investors are not Money Transmitters' on Yahoo News UK. The US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) released a ...


http://uswebdaily.com/news2/bitcoin-...s-yuan-trading
Bitcoin back: Major exchange resumes yuan trading | USWebDaily ...
33 mins ago - Bitcoin received some good news on Friday with a prominent exchange resuming trading after a clampdown by the People's Bank of China....

These two topics accompanied downmoves back in June 2012 as well as from the Nov ATH: FinCen in the US and BTC China being blocked from taking Yuan deposits. Won't translate into immediate uptrends but will certainly touch significant nerve endings amongst Bitcoin fans.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,004
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:48am Jan 31, 2014 7:48am
crash alert! danger!

expecting wave 3 of 3 to start anytime now.....
  • #2,005
  • Edited 8:04am Jan 31, 2014 7:53am | Edited 8:04am
Quote
crash alert! danger!

Good one ! That's pretty funny, troll box good ol' day kind of funny

Thanks venzen for the snapshot button, I'm sure my clipboard will feel the relief !
I wonder about PBOC, in the past it seems they tried to go against US unofficial position, now it appears they are going with the flow, unless they expect negative outcome.
Is the hearing over yet ?

Edit : Kiwioz, I doubt altcoin are a threat to BTC, their is three sort of altcoin player, first the miner with old and useless BTC rigs, second those who missed (or want a revival of) the BTC train early day, last the Max Keiser type who already made too much profit with BTC and are bored with 50% swings. And all of them are mostly in altcoin for BTC. So i don't see no threat.
  • #2,006
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:17am Jan 31, 2014 8:17am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good one ! That's pretty funny, troll box good ol' day kind of funny Thanks venzen for the snapshot button, I'm sure my clipboard will feel the relief ! I wonder about PBOC, in the past it seems they tried to go against US unofficial position, now it appears they are going with the flow, unless they expect negative outcome. Is the hearing over yet ? Edit : Kiwioz, I doubt altcoin are a threat to BTC, their is three sort of altcoin player, first the miner with old and useless BTC rigs, second those who missed (or want a revival...
Thanks L_L. Just eliminating all the negatives. I don't understand the whole concept as you & Venzen do. Here's another one. If their are only 21 million to be mined..
1..What happens to all the people without bitcoins if bitcoin become the #1 currency.?
2.. If others like you n me can mine (produce) bitcoins. Doesn't that add to the 21 million.? Meaning their could eventually be billions of bitcoins.?
Money Makes Money
  • #2,007
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:29am Jan 31, 2014 8:29am
Quoting emptymind
crash alert! danger! expecting wave 3 of 3 to start anytime now.....
Jeez, when i first saw this after reloading the page i got such a shock... then i realized it's what you're expecting to happen...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,008
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:31am Jan 31, 2014 8:31am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Thanks L_L. Just eliminating all the negatives. I don't understand the whole concept as you & Venzen do. Here's another one. If their are only 21 million to be mined.. 1..What happens to all the people without bitcoins if bitcoin become the #1 currency.? 2.. If others like you n me can mine (produce) bitcoins. Doesn't that add to the 21 million.? Meaning their could eventually be billions of bitcoins.?
The supply is limited, it started with zero BTC in circulation, at the beginning it was easy to mine.
Let's compare it to pre-school math and at the end it will be some NASA type of equation.
But the more complex the equation the less reward you get.
Which mean that the time to mine the same amount of coin is exponentially longer and required more solving power.

Actually only 12.000.000 btc have been mined, the last 9.000.000 won't be mined before the next century (according to what I said above).
And neither new technology nor adoption rate can change this establish fact.
Because reward is inversely proportional to the work difficulty.

Also bitcoin is divisible, we are trading BTC but soon (my guess ? by year end) we will be trading mBTC (1mBTC=0.001BTC).
And I believe, this change into BTC subdivision will each time see a great increase in value. Question of people psychology and trading convenience.
That's why people assume that BTC can reach $1.000.000 in the coming decades, then we surely will have switch to trade uBTC.
  • #2,009
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:42am Jan 31, 2014 8:42am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good one ! That's pretty funny, troll box good ol' day kind of funny Thanks venzen for the snapshot button, I'm sure my clipboard will feel the relief ! I wonder about PBOC, in the past it seems they tried to go against US unofficial position, now it appears they are going with the flow, unless they expect negative outcome. Is the hearing over yet ? Edit : Kiwioz, I doubt altcoin are a threat to BTC, their is three sort of altcoin player, first the miner with old and useless BTC rigs, second those who missed (or want a revival...
hi lady_luck,

TradingView is a great service...i'm really happy with everything they offer - in fact I don't see the need to pay for any of the Pro services! The free stuff is amazing. Pity about the quality of conversation in the chat section... but sometimes some good info and knowledgeable people there.

I'm not sure if the hearings are done yet - should be done today - media headlines have seemed very positive all along. Today the Twins said they think Bitcoin needs a Sheriff - probably meaning a regulator so they can get an OK from the SEC for their ETF

re: KiwiOz asking about 21mil BTC and mining, i've got a responseto give to that, but he asked you, so i'll wait a bit...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,010
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:48am Jan 31, 2014 8:48am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} The supply is limited, it started with zero BTC in circulation, at the beginning it was easy to mine. Let's compare it to pre-school math and at the end it will be some NASA type of equation. But the more complex the equation the less reward you get. Which mean that the time to mine the same amount of coin is exponentially longer and required more solving power. Actually only 12.000.000 btc have been mined, the last 9.000.000 won't be mined before the next century (according to what I said above). And neither new technology nor adoption...
Wow......
Money Makes Money
  • #2,011
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:50am Jan 31, 2014 8:50am
I'm glad you like TV, i enjoy how customizable everything is.
Also, i read your question about paper BTC, I think it will be the same as paper plane ticket*, the first few times you don't believe you got anything until your are on-board
We still need some new tech development but I'm sure the twin and bitpay are already on top of it !!
Ideally it would allow a BTC user to pay instantly a non BTC user.

In term of price, it would be the same as altcoin, the more BTC is changing hand for a purpose, the better.
May be bad in term of daytrading, but better in term of yearly ROI.

edit :*not a paper plane made out of a ticket but a plane ticket print on a random paper
  • #2,012
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:52am Jan 31, 2014 8:52am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, TradingView is a great service...i'm really happy with everything they offer - in fact I don't see the need to pay for any of the Pro services! The free stuff is amazing. Pity about the quality of conversation in the chat section... but sometimes some good info and knowledgeable people there. I'm not sure if the hearings are done yet - should be done today - media headlines have seemed very positive all along. Today the Twins said they think Bitcoin needs a Sheriff - probably meaning a regulator so they can get an OK from the...
Cheers mate will read it in the morning. T'will dream of a million dollar Bitcoin. The one I will buy for $400......
Money Makes Money
  • #2,013
  • Jan 31, 2014 9:25am Jan 31, 2014 9:25am
Quoting lady_luck
edit :*not a paper plane made out of a ticket but a plane ticket print on a random paper
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,014
  • Jan 31, 2014 9:32am Jan 31, 2014 9:32am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Cheers mate will read it in the morning. T'will dream of a million dollar Bitcoin. The one I will buy for $400......
sure KO, but L_L said it all: exponential tapering off of mined coins, BTC divisible to 8 decimal places (0.000 000 01 BTC = 1 satoshi), finite amount means as demand increases the price must increase, that's it, really. All I can add is that this is probably where the altcoins will come into play. Today they're kind of a sideshow but later as BTC becomes really expensive and unwieldy for small quick transactions, then some of the more popular altcoins such as Litecoin will definitely have a niche and a role to play.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,015
  • Jan 31, 2014 9:32am Jan 31, 2014 9:32am
Quoting venzen
{quote}
Also I'm curious to read your answer to KiwiOz
edit : just did
  • #2,016
  • Jan 31, 2014 9:54am Jan 31, 2014 9:54am
my target is 620 for wave 3 of 3.... that's 261.8% of wave 1 of 3

(i'm serious, this is not a joke)
  • #2,017
  • Jan 31, 2014 10:06am Jan 31, 2014 10:06am
Quoting emptymind
my target is 620 for wave 3 of 3.... that's 261.8% of wave 1 of 3 (i'm serious, this is not a joke)
sure, understood (serious face)... but remember to keep an open mind to other possibilities... remember, when using EW to forecast we're looking for probable outcomes, not definite "will do this then that" - price only infrequently does what we expect it to do.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,018
  • Jan 31, 2014 10:14am Jan 31, 2014 10:14am
Quoting venzen
{quote} sure, understood (serious face)... but remember to keep an open mind to other possibilities... remember, when using EW to forecast we're looking for probable outcomes, not definite "will do this then that" - price only infrequently does what we expect it to do.
No, it always does That's why I've been outside for two month -in the pouring rain- waiting for 373 to happen

(sorry for the jokes, feeling cheerful today)

By the way, have published your article yet ? Can't wait to read that !
  • #2,019
  • Jan 31, 2014 10:26am Jan 31, 2014 10:26am
Fractal comparison fun

I was looking too far in the past for patterns that match the current wave. As emptymind pointed out some time ago, the wave up since mid-December IS the blueprint for the advance! According to this view, we're going up in a 5th wave at the moment (possibly to complete wave 5 of the advance that started in Oct 2013).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BEUWaF3B/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,020
  • Jan 31, 2014 10:37am Jan 31, 2014 10:37am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} No, it always does That's why I've been outside for two month -in the pouring rain- waiting for 373 to happen (sorry for the jokes, feeling cheerful today) By the way, have published your article yet ? Can't wait to read that !
That's like me waiting for that one more wave down to 55 in July last year and the choo-choo train left me alone on the platform - i finally realised it was going to go to 1000 and bought in at 533! That's why it's amusing to see some longtime traders come and check our analysis and argue it's going to crash - all they really want is to buy in lower. It's like: "How dare this new-fangled instrument leave the station without me!"

Yes, my article is being submitted this weekend - lot's of admin had to be completed before i became an official contributor. Will post here as soon as its up.
cryptocurrency everytime
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