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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,981
  • Edited 9:22am Jan 30, 2014 8:54am | Edited 9:22am
i think it's good idea to count waves of exchanges that do not have leverage. keep it as close to cash as possible. this way the waves will be more accurate and not exagerated........... similar to how futures markets are distorted due to leverage

Quoting venzen
{quote} In my own preferred count we are on the brink of a motive diagonal advance in which the wave degrees will steadily increase - not only for the advance but for corrections too!
is that an expanding ending diagonal for wave 5? that's quite unstable... how can you predict this?


! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 ! ! 100 !
  • #1,982
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:09am Jan 30, 2014 9:09am
Good morning

Have you finished writing your article Venzen ?
Lol, I'm starting to see what you meant Venzen, Kiwioz, you are almost 99% right all the time ! To the point that i don't even bother counter-analyze too much anymore, if I have any altcount matching your chart, I just accept the fate

Still I'm doubtful about any sub 700 (stamp/btc-e), I've been considering again Emptymind count, and to me BTCCHINA PA of december invalidate it. Me getting old, sorry for the repetition but, there was no double top on there, plus they lead the uptrend and correction, having a way deeper move down retracing to the wave 2 of a lesser degree, and also touched dailysma20 and weekly sma, and fib 0.76. Their volume spikes also showed clearly a top and bottom. Again their volume being between x2 to x4 times higher than Gox and stamp/btce, so btcchina were definitely leading PA, so this is very significant.
Also find confirmation with LTC, showing a clearer ABCDE down. Those two chart invalid the diagonal and the LL being a "A".
Last, LTC/BTC ratio has historically be going down when BTC/USD is completing a wave 2.3.4.A or C, wave 3, A and C producing the larger decline, I do not have any significant LL showing up as potential target on LTC/BTC.

So I wouldn't say clear sky, but it appears that the price action since december are part of a new wave up. So it seems impossible in my opinion to make a LL. If the present correction were to be incomplete (and it seems so), 700 (btce/stamp) would then be the absolute potential bottom (previous corrective wave of a lesser degree).
Since the negativity is accumulating, I'm waiting for the volume to increase (let's say a spike around 70000btc on a 3day chart on stamp would do) and it should mark the end of this current correction.
  • #1,983
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:16am Jan 30, 2014 11:16am
Quoting emptymind
i think it's good idea to count waves of exchanges that do not have leverage. keep it as close to cash as possible. this way the waves will be more accurate and not exagerated........... similar to how futures markets are distorted due to leverage
good idea, lady_luck also gave the tip to compare the CNY as well Gox and others - sometimes one exchange shows a clearer wave structure than the others. Seems BTCe and Gox have different counts happening since beginning January as it is...

Quote
is that an expanding ending diagonal for...

do you mean how do i predict a diagonal? if a wave starts with a 3wave structure and advances with motive force then I generally assume it's going to be a diagonal. In this case my alt count still has this as a potential upward correction in a larger C wave targeting the 500 area... preferred count is a diagonal targeting 1300.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,984
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:32am Jan 30, 2014 11:32am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning Have you finished writing your article Venzen ? Lol, I'm starting to see what you meant Venzen, Kiwioz, you are almost 99% right all the time ! To the point that i don't even bother counter-analyze too much anymore, if I have any altcount matching your chart, I just accept the fate Still I'm doubtful about any sub 700 (stamp/btc-e), I've been considering again Emptymind count, and to me BTCCHINA PA of december invalidate it. Me getting old, sorry for the repetition but, there was no double top on there, plus they lead the...

Morning lady_luck,

I read your post after replying to emptymind, so you already stated the analysis that prefers an uptrend in progress. The thrust with which BTC moved away from the HL today is significant. I have seen Gold move fast and far like that on the last leg of a correction only to reverse with even more momentum (so keeping an eye on the indicators for potential reversal) but in this case I think some big money bulls are making a decisive statement. There were so many sell orders between 770 and 800 (on BTCe) that I thought an advance impossible yet overwhelming market buy orders demolished them all.

Hehehe - KiwiOz is very good, eh? Perhaps this is a 1% case in which he may be wrong (the downside call) but in his defense: yesterday he made a call for upside to near 900, so let's see. Nonetheless, KO's method is a welcome canary in the Gold mine for us all.

Today is New Moon and the end of the Chinese Year of the Snake, I expect these strong emotional forces will capitulate in the markets...

btw, EM chaos continues - I see Argentina and Turkey are getting hammered and maybe all of the BoJ easing could be undone...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,985
  • Edited 11:51am Jan 30, 2014 11:36am | Edited 11:51am
apologies for the crowded BTC-e chart, but Gox (blue line) has not yet made a satisfactory low for what looks like a triangle...

edit: on second thoughts, it doesn't need to make a LL in the current wave E since it could be a contracting triangle and the touch points below are C and E, so it could be complete as is...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PIR01YOb/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,986
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:56am Jan 30, 2014 11:56am
I can speak for argentina, I'm not originally from here, but residing here for a bit, and the inflation is terrible. Locals can't save money, can't change ARS to USD. In the past week BTC prices (divergence with BTC/USD) are now 15% on the buy side and 10% on the sell side, close to the price of the ATH in december and equivalent to the higher high of january.
Have a look at the chart : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/loca...zm1g10zm2g25zv
It's full of gaps but I followed closely on localbtc myself and what I said is more obvious on there.

PS : Thanks Venzen, by looking at the BTCARS charts for the first time (and remembering my good old AUD bank account where it's easy to buy/sell BTC, ) I've just realized that I really, really need to find a way to exploit that somehow. Doesn't strike me how tho...

edit : i looked at the chart again, can't barely even see a correction in december and it just look like a diagonal uptrend since, that's about the size of it (hyperinflation)! Also look at how the volume as increase in the last 5days !
  • #1,987
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:23pm Jan 30, 2014 12:23pm
BTCCNY (BTC China)

I know i keep going on about this, but am i seeing right? Look at the pattern circled lower left and look at the larger pattern since the Nov high... and vol is spiking in a impossibly narrow contracting triangle.

H1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/u3t2wq9D/

Here's the M1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JSWeUJEM/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,988
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:32pm Jan 30, 2014 12:32pm
Yes i'm personally seeing the same thing, I haven't bring much chart to the table lately, because simply put : I agree with yours. And also I am in the same situation as yours : not trading before 1000 is reach.
But yes, i see the same circle,and it make sens, in fact you can also find it in jan 2013 on gox and less clearly in november 2012.
I've been back to my daily bitcointalk and trollbox reading, and everything point toward the circle. All I can say is :I have never seen a reversal/downtrend continuation happening after/with this human/chart pattern.
  • #1,989
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:40pm Jan 30, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting lady_luck
I can speak for argentina, I'm not originally from here, but residing here for a bit, and the inflation is terrible. Locals can't save money, can't change ARS to USD. In the past week BTC prices (divergence with BTC/USD) are now 15% on the buy side and 10% on the sell side, close to the price of the ATH in december and equivalent to the higher high of january. Have a look at the chart : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/loca...zm1g10zm2g25zv It's full of gaps but I followed closely on localbtc myself and what I said is more...
I feel for Argentinians in this - and it's not the first time. Besides I have to figure out how this is going to affect me in Asia where the currencies devalue quickly and average people have been loaded with cheap credit by the banks for about a decade now so country economies are precarious.

I looked at the BTC chart you linked. And with the kind of spread you're describing I guess it doesn't make sense to buy and sell BTC via ARS?

Quote
PS : Thanks Venzen, by looking at the BTCARS charts for the first time (and remembering my good old AUD bank account where it's easy to buy/sell BTC, ) I've just realized that I really, really need to find a way to exploit that somehow. Doesn't strike me how tho...

which makes AUD a better option and you're lucky to have this. You just have to figure out how you do the exchange and arbitrage to make the transactions work for you in ARS (on the cash side) and BTC (on the trade side). And tax of course... will Australia want to take a share of your profits or perhaps there are banking fees?

Quote
edit : i looked at the chart again, can't barely even see a correction in december and it just look like a diagonal uptrend since, that's about the size of it (hyperinflation)! Also look at how the volume as increase in the last 5days !

hmmm, so people are buying it seems. Buying for safety - store of value...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,990
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:50pm Jan 30, 2014 12:50pm
Quoting lady_luck
Yes i'm personally seeing the same thing, I haven't bring much chart to the table lately, because simply put : I agree with yours. And also I am in the same situation as yours : not trading before 1000 is reach. But yes, i see the same circle,and it make sens, in fact you can also find it in jan 2013 on gox and less clearly in november 2012. I've been back to my daily bitcointalk and trollbox reading, and everything point toward the circle. All I can say is :I have never seen a reversal/downtrend continuation happening after/with this human/chart...

Sure, i've also seen this pattern many times before (and mostly in Gold) This last leg being a contracting triangle it can (in my interpretation of EW) only be a B or D wave (since A, C and E make diagonals which cannot contract horizontally - only at an angle - else diagonal rules get broken). So in the context this is most likely a B wave before a five wave structure (wave C) to the upside.

no sweat about you not posting charts - our analysis has agreed 99% of the time - and, anyway, we end up posting the same analysis charts (at the same time!) so whilst I'm charting a lot i'm happy to do it. I discovered the TradingView snapshot tool - only started using it the past week and it saves me a lot of screenshot, save, upload, post, etc runaround

edit: When I typed "Sure" above, I meant to say "Thanks for confirming you also see the fractal"!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,991
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:58pm Jan 30, 2014 12:58pm
Quote
hmmm, so people are buying it seems. Buying for safety - store of value...
BTC isn't very popular yet, but it's progressing, last time when I sold some there was a small waiting room with at least 5ppl at all time. But, USD is being heavily purchased hand to hand, pull out a 20 in the street and you can start an hand rising auction !
So, in those circumstances It only make sens to buy BTC and only sell little by little to pay for living expenses, never for profit taking.

So yes that's why I guess economic crisis are great for BTC, people buy some but don't trade, can't sell, so you got a majority of long term holders. Which make it easier for a rise in price.


Yes i thought about that arbitrage opportunity, the problem is that I'll be ending up with ARS. Which means, I would have to buy goods with ARS (may be physical silver or gold) and sell them back in aud then btc.
  • #1,992
  • Jan 30, 2014 1:20pm Jan 30, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting venzen
{quote}. I discovered the TradingView snapshot tool - only started using it the past week and it saves me a lot of screenshot, save, upload, post, etc runaround edit: When I typed "Sure" above, I meant to say "Thanks for confirming you also see the fractal"!
Thanks
Where is this snapshot tool ? Been looking for it !

Yes this 5 wave diagonal up would make sens, in the context of the word "regulation" being brought up in france, US, Singapore and other. This 1300 target slowly reach would make sens as a V, then a longer deeper correction long awaited matching in time with an event as significant as BTC regulated.
  • #1,993
  • Jan 30, 2014 1:31pm Jan 30, 2014 1:31pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Thanks Where is this snapshot tool ? Been looking for it ! Yes this 5 wave diagonal up would make sens, in the context of the word "regulation" being brought up in france, US, Singapore and other. This 1300 target slowly reach would make sens as a V, then a longer deeper correction long awaited matching in time with an event as significant as BTC regulated.

let's see what fundamentals will be created by price!

snapshot, next to Twitter logo, to the lower right of your chart:

Attached Image
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,994
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:00pm Jan 30, 2014 4:00pm
Quoting venzen
BTC-e target at 860? The 1.618 extension of this first wave up shows a potential near 860, but there are many obstacles on the way: psych level 800, resistance around 825-835 and Fib confluence at 850... good luck BTC! edit: oh no KiwiOz, i just saw your downside call! just when I thought there were clear skies up above... {image}
<br />
<br />

Sorry mate. Just woke up to find the 2nd target was a fizzer. Change in direction whilst I slept. DOH.
Reevaluation required.
Money Makes Money
  • #1,995
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:18pm Jan 30, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} <br /> <br /> Sorry mate. Just woke up to find the 2nd target was a fizzer. Change in direction whilst I slept. DOH. Reevaluation required.
Food for thought charts.......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 35 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #1,996
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:26am Jan 31, 2014 2:26am
hi KiwiOz,

I'm studying your charts now... here's a snapshot of current PA on M1 - it seems to have an advancing push to it:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BUrGFzir/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,997
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:58am Jan 31, 2014 2:58am
Still regularly reading this thread, i'm not invested, but interested... Thought I'd share this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...k-caution.html
Fail better.
  • #1,998
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:59am Jan 31, 2014 2:59am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Food for thought charts....... {image} {image} {image}
KO,

Similar to your first chart I also have a target at 840 and in case of another stint down, near 776. We might see both in the coming days.

As for your H4 and Daily chart, that downside target around 700 at the LTL is feasible - although i wouldn't like to see PA go there - i'll have to figure out a new count and recalibrate the advance.

I haven't found strong targets above 900 so I'll look for the two you show on your daily chart. There is another (out of view) higher up and drawn in yellow - what price does it forecast?

here's an M15 chart with Fibs showing the same levels you show on your first chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DtsXaHGt
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,999
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:01am Jan 31, 2014 4:01am
Quoting venzen
{quote} KO, Similar to your first chart I also have a target at 840 and in case of another stint down, near 776. We might see both in the coming days. As for your H4 and Daily chart, that downside target around 700 at the LTL is feasible - although i wouldn't like to see PA go there - i'll have to figure out a new count and recalibrate the advance. I haven't found strong targets above 900 so I'll look for the two you show on your daily chart. There is another (out of view) higher up and drawn in yellow - what price does it forecast? here's...
That comes in at around 1300. Feasible but t'will be a winding & perhaps dangerous road getting there.......Bitcoin may range between 700 & 1000 for quite some time. 'Tis all speculation. I think day to day trading is the way to go. No sense in second guessing the ultimate outcome.
Do you think all these other whatevercoins coming on to the market will have a detrimental effect on the price of Bitcoin.??
Money Makes Money
  • #2,000
  • Jan 31, 2014 5:24am Jan 31, 2014 5:24am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} That comes in at around 1300. Feasible but t'will be a winding & perhaps dangerous road getting there.......Bitcoin may range between 700 & 1000 for quite some time. 'Tis all speculation. I think day to day trading is the way to go. No sense in second guessing the ultimate outcome. Do you think all these other whatevercoins coming on to the market will have a detrimental effect on the price of Bitcoin.??
It may take long but it may also happen in a couple of weeks (once advance starts). Why I prefer the "sudden advance" scenario over "ranging meanderings" is because of a) the chart history and b) the speed of adoption - a year ago only very few people even knew Bitcoin existed and up to 4 months ago it was hard to find an article about Bitcoin and when you did it generally was being ridiculed as a libertarian creation taken over by the crime world. Now we've got banks saying it's a "game changer", the world's biggest retailers scrambling to accept it and laws being passed to deal with it. I believe the next parabolic launch is imminent - perhaps a week or two.

Altcoins - i don't think they represent any threat or disruption. They're all based on the Bitcoin code and represent nothing new or improved. Even those people coming out saying "our coin is an improvement on some weaknesses in Bitcoin" - don't take them seriously. I've had a look through the Bitcoin code and it is quality code but the magnificence of the thing is in it's concept and design.. As far as I can tell there are no weaknesses or shortcomings in Bitcoin - these ideas are evidently invented by the media who either misunderstand the tech or exaggerate something that is a "potential" problem foreseen for the future. The altcoins are inevitable since Bitcoin is Open Source, and I cannot see someone coming up with a variation or "new approach" to cryptocurrency that will immediately supercede Bitcoin. The design principles that underlie Bitcoin are proven and immutable - in the same sense that the internet is built on the solid design of TCP/IP and HTTP protocol. Or bridge design - there is just one standard design that dictates spanning a given distance and no matter how hard anyone thinks they're not going to improve much about 3000 years of bridge design. Whatever innovation does happen out there, it will no-doubt find it's way into the Bitcoin code and I can see a "fork" happening in future - perhaps into Bitcoin 2.0 or some such thing - but unless the fork was done because of fundamental security issues, it will be possible for Bitcoin to exist as both version 1.0 and 2.0 at the same time, as well as having all kinds of altcoins (e.g. Litecoin) floating around and being useful.

The thing that really interests me is: What will happen when people cotton on to the fact that you can print out a paper wallet (worth say 1BTC) and use it as a promissory note - yes, a piece of paper, but backed by something immutable and objectively verifiable.
cryptocurrency everytime
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