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Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 20 replies

Bitcoin Analysis 19 replies

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Bitcoin technical analysis

Ho HO. I was about to move my stops to 805, & hit the sack, When, quicker than I could say holy cow look at the little f%*r go. Price shot up to 805.

And now at 808.50. It just wanted to kiss the 14 MA before heading on down.........

I'll give it a few minutes to roll over, Set my stops & I'll see you all on the 'morrow.
Shit Happens
Quote
I have a question for you: you see the way Overstock.com took $130k worth of Bitcoins? Do you think those sales are reflected in the market or have those Bitcoins merely changed hands? So more businesses accepting Bitcoin... will that increase the price or not affect it at all?

i donīt trade them, but IMHO it would stabilize the price of bitcoins giving less volatility, who would hold a xx0000$ amount in Bicoins with a daily volatility of 10% or more? i would worry when i go to bed and have a sleep...

i mean uff... thatīs no currency thats gamble for every portal which except bitcoins as a payment,...
just do it
Quoting venzen
{quote}There is no "correct way". Traders and websites talking to traders think so but there is not a "most accurate" way to analyse nor a majic combination of things to keep an eye on.

I have a question for you: you see the way Overstock.com took $130k worth of Bitcoins? Do you think those sales are reflected in the market or have those Bitcoins merely changed hands? So more businesses accepting Bitcoin... will that increase the price or not affect it at all?
I also agree there is no "correct way". With all due respect to all of you that use the charts to try and predict long term, I don't see that as effective. I could be wrong on that though. From what I have seen, the price has fluctuated in a very unpredictable manner while I have been paying attention to it this last month. I've heard many times, "OMG, the chart said it was going to do this, and instead it did that! WTF!!" Honestly I don't see any effective way of making predictions, I think anyone who speculates on where the price is going next is just making a guess based on nothing really. I could not look at charts or news and just say "I think btc is going to go to $845 by this evening" and my guess would be about as good as anyone elses who is studying this thing to death. Even watching the news that comes out isn't always the best indication. The other day when Overstock announced they were taking Bitcoins that day, I thought the price was going to go through the roof. I started buying. What did it do? It just limped along hovering around the 810-820 mark where it had been for several days. Up to that point I had made a $230 profit in the last month or somewhere around there, I forget the exact amount. I lost all but $60 of it that day because I was "sure" the news was going to drive the price up. Why did I lose $170? Because I was impatient. I thought big things were going to happen that day and I wanted "in the game". I learned from that one though, I will never never sell at a loss again. I will wait out the slump and wait for it to come back up, whether it takes a day, a week or a month.

As far as businesses accepting bitcoins and will it change the price. Hell if I know, I've just been guessing all along this last month. I've guessed right most of the time, and I think it was mostly due to luck. I don't pretend to have a clue about charts, markets, terminology, etc. If I had to guess though, I would say that more and more businesses accepting it would decrease the volatility of it all. Which is bad for day traders looking to make a few bucks everyday on the price swings. But the more businesses that accept it the less I think we are dependent on "what is China doing". And I would think that the more it is accepted the more the price will increase. But I think the increase will slow down, and just make a steady climb from there on out. But that's just a guess and it's about as good as if you asked me "Whats the car market in Bombay India going to look like in 6 months"
I question I do have though is concerning the MACD chart. I've probably watched at least 50 youtube videos in the last month trying to learn what it's all about. I get the part about the crossover and seeing if it's trending up or down. But what about the time interval. The trends look differently depending on what time interval you are looking at. Looking at 1min trend will show it moving up, while switching to another interval like the 15min or 30min will show it dropping. What the hell?? Which time interval is the one that's going to tell me the truth?? LOL.
Quoting venzen
{quote} chonchy, this is weird... i couldn't watch all of it because it don't make sense... similar to Dianetics and Scientology?
It makes a lot of sense to me venzen and it will to you if you will have being seeing this videos since 2005 like I have, but I can save you the trouble if you trust me and conclude that the elite (rosthshilds and rokefellers) own us and own the world and have over 100 secrets that are pure evil, but with some whistle blowers like his daughter Ervin and Jessica and others, good will prevail over evil, we just have to have faith......mind control and time travel are just two of the many secrets they control and don't allow people to know about it because those secrets keep them apart from us, it give them power, but sorry for bringing those weird things into the thread, won't happen again.......
The Chonchy
Quoting dcramer16
I question I do have though is concerning the MACD chart. I've probably watched at least 50 youtube videos in the last month trying to learn what it's all about. I get the part about the crossover and seeing if it's trending up or down. But what about the time interval. The trends look differently depending on what time interval you are looking at. Looking at 1min trend will show it moving up, while switching to another interval like the 15min or 30min will show it dropping. What the hell?? Which time interval is the one that's going to tell me...

There will be different things happening at different timeframes at any moment. When they sync up (generally at a top or bottom) that is a strong signal to buy or sell. So for example if you look at 5min, 15min, 1hr and 4hr TFs of today's action you will see that MACD reaches a low on all of them* at today's price low near 787 (BTC-e pricing). So your choice of which timeframe (TF) you monitor and trade from is a matter of personal style and preference. The larger TFs show bigger price swings over longer periods (and the MACD indicator will take longer to move from a high to low value) while the smaller TFs (e.g. 5min) will show the smaller subwaves that make up the bigger waves (and, of course, the 5min MACD will go from positive to negative extremes many times a day because there a many small subwaves in a larger wave).

As a suggestion, I would say trade off a 1hour TF chart but simultaneously monitor a 5min chart to get a sense of how price action correlates and how MACD behaves in each TF.

BTW, if you read a page or two back you will see that KiwiOz and chonchy both predicted that price would hit ~780 today and reverse back up. They used different analysis methods and came to the same target and conclusion! It's called technical analysis (TA) but all analysts are not cut from the same cloth. These two "old hands" are skilled as you can see from their accurate forecasts. Even so, they are sometimes wrong because unexpected things do happen in the market.

edit:
*MACD low - I say a "MACD low on all of them" but I'm not saying the MACD lowest low on the chart. At a price low, MACD is often not at it's maximum low value. This is a phenomenon called "divergence" - but I will leave you to study that in your own time...
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting chonchy
{quote} It makes a lot of sense to me venzen and it will to you if you will have being seeing this videos since 2005 like I have, but I can save you the trouble if you trust me and conclude that the elite (rosthshilds and rokefellers) own us and own the world and have over 100 secrets that are pure evil, but with some whistle blowers like his daughter Ervin and Jessica and others, good will prevail over evil, we just have to have faith......mind control and time travel are just two of the many secrets they control and don't allow people to know...

Hey, take it easy, chonchy, no sweat! ... thanks for posting and sharing. I'm just being honest to say I couldn't watch it all today. Maybe another time I feel interested to know more and then it's here to watch, you see? I cannot say I know everything already and I am always keen to learn more, but sometimes I know when something doesn't grab my interest immediately, then it's not time for it just then, compriendes?

BTW - how are the tulip bulbs coming along?
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting dcramer16
I question I do have though is concerning the MACD chart. I've probably watched at least 50 youtube videos in the last month trying to learn what it's all about. I get the part about the crossover and seeing if it's trending up or down. But what about the time interval. The trends look differently depending on what time interval you are looking at. Looking at 1min trend will show it moving up, while switching to another interval like the 15min or 30min will show it dropping. What the hell?? Which time interval is the one that's going to tell me...
......For me 30M, one hour and 4H work well when they are in sync and is trending, but not only MACD I watch I also look for the sync in 30M, one hour and 4h on my tree moving averages, 5, 30 and 100, when all is in sync it will break out for a few pips, that is for day trading, for long term I don't do it but it could work on daily weekly and monthly, or 1hour, 4H and daily, and for scalping a few pips at a time, 5M, 15M and 30M is good for me, of course this is what I do and is good for me because I have being doing this since 2005 wish is a lot of screen time, they don't just give a plane full of people to anybody to fly, unless they have several hours flying, they give them a plane full of cows first to see if he makes it and then they give them people when they a lot of flying hours, is the same here, many screen hours, give you a sense of direction some times, not all the time, but if you are 6 times out of ten correct in this game, you make money, not a lot, but to pay the bills, my two cents, sorry for the rant.....just trying to help......
The Chonchy
So I'm looking at BTC-e macd. At the present moment the 5min chart is showing it's gonna drop quite a bit. The 15min is showing a rise, but looks to me it's at the top of the rise because the blue and red line are moving closer to each other. The 1hr tf is flatlined, neither moving up or down. And the 4hr is showing a gradual downtrend. Now I'm looking to see where you came up with todays price falling to 787. I don't see that anywhere, but then I guess I'm not sure where to look. But basically the macd is showing a downtrend for today I guess. Do the timeframes mean anything. Like the 15min, if it's rising does that mean in the next 15 minutes we will see it rise, and the 4hr going down, meaning after the 15min are over we will see a downtrend for the next 4hrs??

By the way, thanks Venzan for taking the time to answer me, I'm paying attention to everything you are trying to tell people.
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hey, take it easy, chonchy, no sweat! ... thanks for posting and sharing. I'm just being honest to say I couldn't watch it all today. Maybe another time I feel interested to know more and then it's here to watch, you see? I cannot say I know everything already and I am always keen to learn more, but sometimes I know when something doesn't grab my interest immediately, then it's not time for it just then, compriendes?
I started watching them when people told me those things, and I say, well I don't believe it but I have to investigate, and after years of intense investigation I came to the conclusion that all is true and all we see in the movies is also true, with a twist of sensation so the viewers don't get bored in the theater, and even more that we don't know yet, I learn some new everyday, every day I learn some new, also in the markets, I never stop learning, look at me now, when I though I was over, I'm learning about Elliot waves.......
The Chonchy
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ......For me 30M, one hour and 4H work well when they are in sync and is trending, but not only MACD I watch I also look for the sync in 30M, one hour and 4h on my tree moving averages, 5, 30 and 100, when all is in sync it will break out for a few pips, that is for day trading, for long term I don't do it but it could work on daily weekly and monthly, or 1hour, 4H and daily, and for scalping a few pips at a time, 5M, 15M and 30M is good for me, of course this is what I do and is good for me because I have being doing this since 2005 wish...
So what I'm getting from that is you watch the 30m, 1hr and 4hr. If if they are in sync (all 3 showing a rise) you buy and if all 3 or showing a drop you sell. But say for example the 30min is showing a rise and the 1hr and 4hr are both showing a drop then they aren't in sync and you don't do anything?
Quoting dcramer16
So I'm looking at BTC-e macd. At the present moment the 5min chart is showing it's gonna drop quite a bit. The 15min is showing a rise, but looks to me it's at the top of the rise because the blue and red line are moving closer to each other. The 1hr tf is flatlined, neither moving up or down. And the 4hr is showing a gradual downtrend. Now I'm looking to see where you came up with todays price falling to 787. I don't see that anywhere, but then I guess I'm not sure where to look. But basically the macd is showing a downtrend for today I guess....
if you see a chart with price hitting certain levels many times in the past, there is a provability that it will bounce there again or feel attracted to it again in the future and that is one way to see where price is going to go, but I sense some frustration in your voice, that is why you need to demo for a while to get a sense of the charts and the markets, and to tell you the true I don't follow the news, for me is just another way to follow the market but I don't use it, I like the charts, if you look is all in the charts but it needs time like all in life, you don't become a surgeon in 6 months.......

......Do you think price will go to 1171 in this gold chart in the future again? I do, and I trade based on that and some other things, among the six sense you develop when you do it for a while.........

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The Chonchy
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} Up to that point I had made a $230 profit in the last month or somewhere around there, I forget the exact amount. I lost all but $60 of it that day because I was "sure" the news was going to drive the price up. Why did I lose $170? Because I was impatient. I thought big things were going to happen that day and I wanted "in the game". I learned from that one though, I will never never sell at a loss again. I will wait out the slump and wait for it to come back up, whether it takes a day, a week or a month.
Valuable lesson and you learnt it by reflecting on it. Best to wait for confirmation of price going up (as opposed to assuming it will) and then buy. The common wisdom goes: "Let the market come to you"

And yes, I would not sell at a loss because we know Bitcoin/Litecoin will eventually make a new all time high, right? So eventually price will return to the level where you bought. Looking at it a different way: If price just keeps going down and eventually reahes zero, then the whole investment has gone down the toilet anyway - so selling at a loss was unnecessary! However, it's not a "rule of thumb" - if you sell for say a $50 loss because price is in a prolonged downtrend and you know taking a loss now will free up capital to buy at a massive discount - then it makes sense to sell at a loss. But first you have to be sure about the "prolonged downtrend" and that will take some more technical analysis skills and experience to forecast.

Quote
But I think the increase will slow down, and just make a steady climb from there on out. But that's just a guess and it's about as good as if you asked me "Whats the car market in Bombay India going to look like in 6 months"

cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} So what I'm getting from that is you watch the 30m, 1hr and 4hr. If if they are in sync (all 3 showing a rise) you buy and if all 3 or showing a drop you sell. But say for example the 30min is showing a rise and the 1hr and 4hr are both showing a drop then they aren't in sync and you don't do anything?
.......exactly, use any three time frames accordingly to your like, if you go to play pool, do you set a match for one table or tree at least, any body can win a table, but two out of tree is a champion now correct? if for long time, use long time time frames, if for medium term or daily then 30M, one hour and 4H will be fine, and for scalping a few pips, 5M, 30M and one hour could work with the correct indis......use RSI, also notice all indicators lag, so you need to use proper judgment........there are many things to help you make an assessment of the situation and act accordingly, and always use proper stops and realistic targets, did you check TEB63 like I told you?
The Chonchy
Quoting chonchy
{quote} if you see a chart with price hitting certain levels many times in the past, there is a provability that it will bounce there again or feel attracted to it again in the future and that is one way to see where price is going to go, but I sense some frustration in your voice, that is why you need to demo for a while to get a sense of the charts and the markets, and to tell you the true I don't follow the news, for me is just another way to follow the market but I don't use it, I like the charts, if you look is all in the charts but it needs...

It's not really frustration in my voice, just confusion, When I'm "out of the game" when I accidentally buy high and I'm waiting for days for the price to come back up, I use it as a time to try and learn. I use a bitcoin fee calculator and watch the charts. Then I say I'm going to buy this much in bitcoins here, then watch the charts and decide when to sell, then when to buy, etc etc etc... I use the fee calculator to keep track of my (pretend) profits or losses for that day, and carry on into the next day and do it some more until the price comes up and I can sell my bitcoin and trade for real. I am very fortunate with the job I have, I have tons and tons of free time to practice. Yesterday I made $13 in pretend profits. It's short of my $100 per day goal, but that's only trading with 1btc that's locked in a higher price. I think I will need at least 4btc in order to make my goal of $100 per day profit. So I practice practice practice! Thanks for your advice chonchy.
Quoting chonchy
{quote} if you see a chart with price hitting certain levels many times in the past, there is a provability that it will bounce there again or feel attracted to it again in the future and that is one way to see where price is going to go, but I sense some frustration in your voice, that is why you need to demo for a while to get a sense of the charts and the markets, and to tell you the true I don't follow the news, for me is just another way to follow the market but I don't use it, I like the charts, if you look is all in the charts but it needs...
hermano, if you're looking to take a Gold trade check out this wave count forecast: http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.blogspot.com/

The analyst there is diligent and I like his contrarian style.

I am itching to hit the Gold chart for some profit, but all my trading capital is locked in BTC right now. Nevermind, there will be plenty opportunities when BTC makes good by April (at the latest, i expect).
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting thodie
{quote} i donīt trade them, but IMHO it would stabilize the price of bitcoins giving less volatility, who would hold a xx0000$ amount in Bicoins with a daily volatility of 10% or more? i would worry when i go to bed and have a sleep... i mean uff... thatīs no currency thats gamble for every portal which except bitcoins as a payment,...
so the dealer that sold the tesla for 91 BTC is crazy, or maybe he is certain price is going to go higher and his 91 BTC will become a huge fortune and the tesla is going to cost less every year, so who is the crazy now the one who gave the BTC or the one that took them, oh well maybe the one who gave the BTC took them for 0.06 cents a few years ago, who knows ah.......
The Chonchy
Quoting venzen
{quote} However, it's not a "rule of thumb" - if you sell for say a $50 loss because price is in a prolonged downtrend and you know taking a loss now will free up capital to buy at a massive discount - then it makes sense to sell at a loss. But first you have to be sure about the "prolonged downtrend" and that will take some more technical analysis skills and experience to forecast. {quote}
Yep, that's why I sold. Because I thought the bottom was going to drop out and I could buy at a massive discount. Why did I think the bottom was dropping out.....oh, just because. LOL I then realized that I really don't know shit about trends, LMAO. I made about 6 bad trades in the course of the hour and lost almost all my profits. "Oh crap, it's going down, I better sell at a loss. Crap, it just shot back up, I better buy in now and catch the ride up. Oh shit, there it goes, down down down. Better sell. WTF, it just shot back up again!! Ok, I'm done. Done done done done!!" I then decided that my new rule was not to sell at a loss, even to free up capital to buy at a massive discount. I inject $400 every 2 weeks from my paycheck that normally goes to savings. If I want to buy at a massive discount I will use those funds and leave the ones I bought at a higher price alone until the price goes up.
Quoting venzen
{quote} there will be plenty opportunities when BTC makes good by April (at the latest, i expect).
What do you mean? And what is your predicted price by april?
Quoting chonchy
{quote} .......exactly, use any three time frames accordingly to your like, if you go to play pool, do you set a match for one table or tree at least, any body can win a table, but two out of tree is a champion now correct? if for long time, use long time time frames, if for medium term or daily then 30M, one hour and 4H will be fine, and for scalping a few pips, 5M, 30M and one hour could work with the correct indis......use RSI, also notice all indicators lag, so you need to use proper judgment........there are many things to help you make an...

chonchy, just to put you in the picture - i think you have not read dcramer's original post - he has no trading or TA experience and is playing the exchange straight - buy-and-hold and then sell high to buy in again at lower prices. I think this is very good experience. I traded BTC like that for months before I learnt about BTC-e's MT4 option.

I think the member should continue as he is doing - buy and hold strategy straight into the exchange - calculate spreads and fees into the trade - and just learn how the chart moves and his own reactions to it - valuable lessons. Now he's learning about multiple TFs and researching MACD on his own. These are all signs of an enquiring mind and of greater things to come for this green horn trader.

very good.
cryptocurrency everytime
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