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  • #1,421
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:16am Jan 13, 2014 11:16am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hermano, if you're looking to take a Gold trade check out this wave count forecast: http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.blogspot.com/ The analyst there is diligent and I like his contrarian style. I am itching to hit the Gold chart for some profit, but all my trading capital is locked in BTC right now. Nevermind, there will be plenty opportunities when BTC makes good by April (at the latest, i expect).

.........Oh no venzen I was just trying to explain our fellow trader about the endless possibilities to see price behavior in the markets, I have my money in e/u, e/a, g/u and a/j a basket for long term interest rate gains and some profits on some, and some negative on e/u and g/u, but they will come down when dollar appreciate, Mario Dragi will push the euro down soon, when the Germans scream for some sale on BMW's.........or some Heidelberg's printers.......
The Chonchy
  • #1,422
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:23am Jan 13, 2014 11:23am
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} Yep, that's why I sold. Because I thought the bottom was going to drop out and I could buy at a massive discount. Why did I think the bottom was dropping out.....oh, just because. LOL I then realized that I really don't know shit about trends, LMAO. I made about 6 bad trades in the course of the hour and lost almost all my profits. "Oh crap, it's going down, I better sell at a loss. Crap, it just shot back up, I better buy in now and catch the ride up. Oh shit, there it goes, down down down. Better sell. WTF, it just shot back up again!!...



LOL sometimes a small trading decision ends up like this!

Inserted Video
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,423
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:25am Jan 13, 2014 11:25am
Quoting venzen
{quote} LOL sometimes a small trading decision ends up like this!
Ain't that the truth!
  • #1,424
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:29am Jan 13, 2014 11:29am
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} What do you mean? And what is your predicted price by april?
I simply mean BTCUSD will go above $1000 soon. We are in a pre-launch consolidative phase now and at some point a massive wave will surge up above $1000 and higher. The wave may well go above $1000, pull back and consolidate again on top of $1000 and before advancing with great momentum. I expect this will happen in the coming months but by April latest - for no other reason than BTC has shown a roughly 6 month high-to-new-high cycle to date. May happen sooner or may not - no need to pre-empt the market - it will show us what it wants to do.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,425
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:30am Jan 13, 2014 11:30am
Quoting venzen
{quote} There will be different things happening at different timeframes at any moment. When they sync up (generally at a top or bottom) that is a strong signal to buy or sell. So for example if you look at 5min, 15min, 1hr and 4hr TFs of today's action you will see that MACD reaches a low on all of them* at today's price low near 787 (BTC-e pricing). So your choice of which timeframe (TF) you monitor and trade from is a matter of personal style and preference. The larger TFs show bigger price swings over longer periods (and the MACD indicator will...

and that is why stops are a great thing to have handy, I got out at the break of the magenta line or lower trend line of the triangle, because I think there is more lower prices today or tomorrow, I think some one want it lower, so I took a loss but that is what is call probabilities, now I will rinse and repeat, and when I enter again and hit 1500 then all the losses are erased, that is all you need, one goal in this one good trade and that is it, one good trade.......
The Chonchy
  • #1,426
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:31am Jan 13, 2014 11:31am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} so the dealer that sold the tesla for 91 BTC is crazy, or maybe he is certain price is going to go higher and his 91 BTC will become a huge fortune and the tesla is going to cost less every year, so who is the crazy now the one who gave the BTC or the one that took them, oh well maybe the one who gave the BTC took them for 0.06 cents a few years ago, who knows ah.......
i´m not talking about one single trade.

if a bigger dealer let´s say amazon is going to accept BTC the dealer has the volatility RISK of this currency, because he has to pay TAXES and employs in other currencies. 10% volatility a day is hugh for a currency.

that has nothing to do with my opinion about BTC. (the snowballsystem)

The price will contuine rise until the early BTC holders want their cash out
if i remember right there where ~6 million already mined and shared under the founders BEFORE they have gone public with the project

it´s naive to believe the price rise and rise and rise, all holders will be millionaires over night?

so no offence to your trading! Do it gain pips, i wish you all profit, in the end many people
has to loose for the profit of a few (the founders...)
just do it
  • #1,427
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:32am Jan 13, 2014 11:32am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} .........Oh no venzen I was just trying to explain our fellow trader about the endless possibilities to see price behavior in the markets, I have my money in e/u, e/a, g/u and a/j a basket for long term interest rate gains and some profits on some, and some negative on e/u and g/u, but they will come down when dollar appreciate, Mario Dragi will push the euro down soon, when the Germans scream for some sale on BMW's.........or some Heidelberg's printers.......

Man, you're brave to trade those forex pairs! I just don't have the cohones... but I wish you luck - the plan sounds good!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,428
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:39am Jan 13, 2014 11:39am
Quoting venzen
{quote} LOL sometimes a small trading decision ends up like this! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM

Lol, now that is funny.....and true....
The Chonchy
  • #1,429
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:40am Jan 13, 2014 11:40am
Quoting venzen
{quote} I simply mean BTCUSD will go above $1000 soon. We are in a pre-launch consolidative phase now and at some point a massive wave will surge up above $1000 and higher. The wave may well go above $1000, pull back and consolidate again on top of $1000 and before advancing with great momentum. I expect this will happen in the coming months but by April latest - for no other reason than BTC has shown a roughly 6 month high-to-new-high cycle to date. May happen sooner or may not - no need to pre-empt the market - it will show us what it wants to...
That's good news for me. I bought my 2btc right around $800, which I will try and boost from day to day making small profits on the safest bets I can find. By April 4th I will have about $5700 in my account (sitting at $1700 now), and the more I have in there, the more profit I think I will make. I have to laugh at the people who say btc will pass by 50K in 2014, I think Max Keiser said this a while back. But if we can pass $2000 in 2014 I'll be happy as hell. I don't know what a realistic number is for 2014, and I don't think anyone else has one either. But I hope it holds out until April so I can keep buying around the 800 mark.

EDIT: And I greatly appreciate your guy's time explaining some of this to me. I have every intention of paying it forward in the future when I figure out some of this mess. Right now I'm trying to help my older brother get started, but at the moment it's really the blind leading the blind.
  • #1,430
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:41am Jan 13, 2014 11:41am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Man, you're brave to trade those forex pairs! I just don't have the cohones... but I wish you luck - the plan sounds good!

.....I have being long aud/jpy since last year, it pays very good everyday after 5 o'clock.....long from the bottom adding at every pull back....
The Chonchy
  • #1,431
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:44am Jan 13, 2014 11:44am
Quoting thodie
{quote} i´m not talking about one single trade. if a bigger dealer let´s say amazon is going to accept BTC the dealer has the volatility RISK of this currency, because he has to pay TAXES and employs in other currencies. 10% volatility a day is hugh for a currency. that has nothing to do with my opinion about BTC. (the snowballsystem) The price will contuine rise until the early BTC holders want their cash out if i remember right there where ~6 million already mined and shared under the founders BEFORE they have gone public with the project it´s...

hi thodie, hope you're well!

As I understand it the current Silicon Valley project is to develop a Bitcoin payment system (online and POS) whereby the retailer gets a single quote that is applied to the transaction from beginning to end, so the exchange rate that the customer is charged (in BTC) and the exchange rate that the retailer gets (for BTC to USD conversion) is the same. Thereby volatility risk is zero and the retailer and customer both benefit from BTC's lower fees, higer security, fewer intermediaries, etc. By implication Visa and Mastercard (and Paypal) are relegated to the dutbin of history!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,432
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:46am Jan 13, 2014 11:46am
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} That's good news for me. I bought my 2btc right around $800, which I will try and boost from day to day making small profits on the safest bets I can find. By April 4th I will have about $5700 in my account (sitting at $1700 now), and the more I have in there, the more profit I think I will make. I have to laugh at the people who say btc will pass by 50K in 2014, I think Max Keiser said this a while back. But if we can pass $2000 in 2014 I'll be happy as hell. I don't know what a realistic number is for 2014, and I don't think anyone else...

remember to invest what you can afford to lose, but if you can afford that kind of money, you should add at the lows, if it goes lower, add, and if it goes lower add more.......BTC will go to 2000 dollars for sure.......trust me......when I don't know but that it will, it will......do you think people will invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in something that is going to be worthless, nahhhhh, they know some.......
The Chonchy
  • #1,433
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:53am Jan 13, 2014 11:53am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} remember to invest what you can afford to lose, but if you can afford that kind of money, you should add at the lows, if it goes lower, add, and if it goes lower add more.......BTC will go to 2000 dollars for sure.......trust me......when I don't know but that it will, it will......do you think people will invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in something that is going to be worthless, nahhhhh, they know some.......
That's very good advise. I have been putting aside here and there over the years, taking some out here for car repairs, putting more back in, etc. My savings account is sitting at $15,000 right now so I can afford to start putting my monthly savings into btc for now. I think at this point btc is about as sure a bet as you can find. I missed all the good things over the last 10 years by being safe and conservative. All the missed opportunities really adds up, and I'm not going to miss this one. A friend told me years ago to buy bitcoins when it was at like $5, I thought "Gee, an imaginary coin, that isn't backed by anything, that is worth nothing unless people say it is. Yeah, sure, that's a winner, pffft" Boy do I wish I would have listened to him!! I'm always a day late and a dollar short on these opportunities. Not this time!! I will inject every penny I can afford for the foreseeable future. I think the train has left to make millions, it's too late for me. But I don't think it's too late to make decent money.
  • #1,434
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:56am Jan 13, 2014 11:56am
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} That's good news for me. I bought my 2btc right around $800, which I will try and boost from day to day making small profits on the safest bets I can find. By April 4th I will have about $5700 in my account (sitting at $1700 now), and the more I have in there, the more profit I think I will make. I have to laugh at the people who say btc will pass by 50K in 2014, I think Max Keiser said this a while back. But if we can pass $2000 in 2014 I'll be happy as hell. I don't know what a realistic number is for 2014, and I don't think anyone else...

Forecasting the evntual upside target is almost futile because as much as BTC can advance to encredible highs it subsequently retraces most of the upside within days/hours! $2000 is a realistic target IMO and of course price will then most likely come back to $1000 again... that much we can anticipate at this stage but beyond that becomes soothsaying. Some Wall Street analysts are giving upside max valuations of $10,000, $40,000, $100,000, etc but this cannot be known or used to plan a trade. For now we endure the consolidation and look for how approaches to $1000 hint at intentions for higher up...

As for you and your brother learning, it's good to learn as a team, so work from first principles and take nothing for granted. Comprehend whatever you read/learn fully before moving on to more complex knowledge. A good idea is to do the education course at babypips.com - all of the concepts, jargon and trading basic skills are taught there. It is good quality and an objective introduction to the industry.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,435
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:03pm Jan 13, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} $2000 is a realistic target IMO and of course price will then most likely come back to $1000 again...

A good idea is to do the education course at babypips.com - all of the concepts, jargon and trading basic skills are taught there. It is good quality and an objective introduction to the industry.
Sell at $2000, check.
Website bookmarked. I go home tomorrow for my days off and will get on there soon. Thanks!
  • #1,436
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:09pm Jan 13, 2014 12:09pm
I had a strange encounter today.
I tried to sell quiet a few btc today, met the buyer from localbitcoins, and ended up in a financial agency with a dozen traders, more than a few of them having MT4 and plus500 BTC open on their screen.
For the anecdote, the sell didn't happen, I guess those guys thought they can make me wait until tomorrow for may be a new low and cancel the trade, or hedge it if it goes up.
Anyway, that was an interesting thing to see
  • #1,437
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:15pm Jan 13, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting lady_luck
I had a strange encounter today. I tried to sell quiet a few btc today, met the buyer from localbitcoins, and ended up in a financial agency with a dozen traders, more than a few of them having MT4 and plus500 BTC open on their screen. For the anecdote, the sell didn't happen, I guess those guys thought they can make me wait until tomorrow for may be a new low and cancel the trade, or hedge it if it goes up. Anyway, that was an interesting thing to see
That brings up an interesting point I was wondering about. What about these guys who have hundreds of bitcoins? If they go to sell all their coins at once, people will see a sell off, and start selling and driving the price down. Then they can buy their coins back at a lower price and begin driving the price back up. I would imagine if you have quite a few coins in your account you could do this all day and make money.
  • #1,438
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:18pm Jan 13, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting lady_luck
I had a strange encounter today. I tried to sell quiet a few btc today, met the buyer from localbitcoins, and ended up in a financial agency with a dozen traders, more than a few of them having MT4 and plus500 BTC open on their screen. For the anecdote, the sell didn't happen, I guess those guys thought they can make me wait until tomorrow for may be a new low and cancel the trade, or hedge it if it goes up. Anyway, that was an interesting thing to see

that's an interesting story - unfortunate turn of events (cancelled sale) but perhaps for the better - because price seems to be turning up from 800 right now... it may force their hand and you have a better bargaining position

so they had MT4 ? and plus500 (? gotta google that)

I actually just bought some Bitcoin via MtGox at $900... burns me when i see BTC-e at $800 for the same product but the joy is greater when I get to sell at MtGox's higher sell price above $1000 later on!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,439
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:35pm Jan 13, 2014 12:35pm
Unfortunately, that's the part where I got suckered, the trade wasn't canceled just "postpone" with a "sorry i have no more credit for the day". I could have scream like a siren but cheeky me started the trade on the week-end high, so it's still at my advantage.
Yeah i think the guy on plus500 was doing LTC.

Dcramer16, I was saying not long ago, 100btc is nothing, even 1000btc isn't much. To manipulate the market in the way you mention you need 100time that amount and a high volume of trade, as strange as it sounds it's actually harder to manipulate the market when there is fewer trade, it costs too much coins for not much profit. And if you get high volume you better trade than waste coin in unsure manipulation, either way I could look at it, it's as a lose-lose for large holder.
That's why overstock numbers and news doesn't impress me much.
  • #1,440
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:35pm Jan 13, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} That brings up an interesting point I was wondering about. What about these guys who have hundreds of bitcoins? If they go to sell all their coins at once, people will see a sell off, and start selling and driving the price down. Then they can buy their coins back at a lower price and begin driving the price back up. I would imagine if you have quite a few coins in your account you could do this all day and make money.

in theory it seems to work, but in practice there is some algorithm in place at the exchange server which plays with spread before it actually moves the buy-side or sell-side price. SO for instance when a large market sell order (say 100BTC) drops into the exchange the sell price (higher of the two quote prices) will drop slightly and the buy price (lower of the two) will increase slightly - thereby increasing the spread. If more people pile in then initially the spread will continue widening - thereby hitting some nearby buy orders which bring the spread back to "normal" leaving the market as it was but with both the buy and sell price slightly lower. If people just keep piling in on one side (say selling) then the spread will continue widening, thereby triggering buy orders being lasso'ed by the widening spread and mostly this widening spread deters new sellers from piling in. Spread will remain wide until a buy market order is put in the market and then spread will "normalise" again. For all intents and purposes the selling frenzy hardly affected price. However, on sustained volume (continuous heavy selling) the exchange algorithm has a threshold whereby it will stop widening spread and allow the selling price to start moving with each new sale. That's when you see red candles start running to the downside.

So yes, it's difficult to move the market with one large transaction, since the exchange thought about that and have an algorithm that only allows sustained transactions in one direction to start shifting actual price (rather than just spread)

edit: i don't know for a fact this is how it works, but that is my impression anyway from 1000s of hours of watching MtGox price action when I was coding an app using their price feed last year. The mechanism may work slightly differently but I suspect my interpretation is 80% correct.
cryptocurrency everytime
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