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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,301
  • Jan 11, 2014 1:36pm Jan 11, 2014 1:36pm
i've got to get some sleep... been an insightful day and a productive night for me. Enjoyed sharing ideas - I'm feeling more confident with the chart now - i think it's critical to look at a few exchange charts everyday - because they each represent a part of the whole - one chart (BTC-e) only - doesn't cut it.

look forward to more discussion and progress tomorrow - i want to get my head around the BTC wave DNA
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,302
  • Edited 6:53pm Jan 11, 2014 1:41pm | Edited 6:53pm
Could something like this work ?
(sorry for annotating over your chart, i hope it's not rude, it was just easier )

http://i.imgur.com/mYmIvUm.png


Good night and good tulip dreams

edit : so now could be a "i", which would explain the fractal similitude with the "december wave" 1 and also "october 12-24th" i ? So the next ii should be (iv) of the blue 5 so something like 855 (btc-e), but before that the high of current i should be at the same level as the top of b within the blue 2, so 950 (btc-e).
Those numbers are just experimental don't act on them...
  • #1,303
  • Jan 11, 2014 3:13pm Jan 11, 2014 3:13pm
New high, RSI going down, volume up, during those flat top triangle, as you spotted yesterday,that should break up..

http://i.imgur.com/QpGRMEW.png
  • #1,304
  • Jan 12, 2014 12:51am Jan 12, 2014 12:51am
Quoting lady_luck
Could something like this work ? (sorry for annotating over your chart, i hope it's not rude, it was just easier ) {image} Good night and good tulip dreams edit : so now could be a "i", which would explain the fractal similitude with the "december wave" 1 and also "october 12-24th" i ? So the next ii should be (iv) of the blue 5 so something like 855 (btc-e), but before that the high of current i should be at the same level as the top of b within the blue 2, so 950 (btc-e). Those numbers are just experimental don't act on them...
OMG! my lovely chart!... jokes (feel free, sometimes its just plain easier)

I agree that count could be accurate - and we're dipping for the iv wave and then upside around 925-950 (lots of Fib confluence there).

Then I believe we would have wave B of this correction complete and I would expect a return to 750 for the C wave. After that the next push up in a 3rd wave as per your count. Does that fit with your idea of what's happening?


http://ubuntuone.com/7N9vrpfsQm454BA07wNOzn
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,305
  • Edited 6:59am Jan 12, 2014 6:08am | Edited 6:59am
In the following chart I just chose the first A wave I could find after the Silk Road low (bummer, I never got to experience a Silk Road "high").

I could have chosen any wave to calibrate the Fib tool, but I find the A wave of wave 1 works best because it is the original market reaction and psychological statement of the advance.

Subwave 1 of wave 3 is also good but the reason I didn't use it is because it's almost useless as a forecasting tool - first we have to wait for it and then hope what we measure is completed. It's much easier to measure the first A wave and then start projecting and extending Fibs - which is what I'm trying to determine with this exercise: What reliable forecasting can be achieved with the first clear wave of an advance? I think the results speak for themself - there is a Fib measure being respected in this entire chart.

http://ubuntuone.com/5s88ZRLTLIgLvD8qB7EfMB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,306
  • Jan 12, 2014 6:31am Jan 12, 2014 6:31am
I have been trading bitcoin with no capital needed real easy way to make risk free money nous.net/intro?by=zRTjRB its fun and safe and a good way to practice
Copy my trades for free ask me how )
  • #1,307
  • Jan 12, 2014 6:48am Jan 12, 2014 6:48am
Quoting venzen
In the following chart I just chose the first A wave I could find after the Silk Road low (bummer, I never got to experience a Silk Road "high"). I could have chosen any wave to calibrate the Fib tool, but I find the A wave of wave 1 works best because it is the original market reaction and psychological statement of the advance. Subwave 1 of wave 3 is also good but the reason I didn't use it is because it is useless as a forcasting tool - it's easy to measure the first A wave and then start projecting and extending Fibs - which is what I'm trying...
Check Fib's & targets on this chart.........No guarantee it will achieve the last target
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 37 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #1,308
  • Jan 12, 2014 6:53am Jan 12, 2014 6:53am
Quoting londontg
I have been trading bitcoin with no capital needed real easy way to make risk free money nous.net/intro?by=zRTjRB its fun and safe and a good way to practice

you're going to get into trouble with the moderators posting stuff like that in FF.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,309
  • Jan 12, 2014 6:56am Jan 12, 2014 6:56am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Check Fib's & targets on this chart.........No guarantee it will achieve the last target {image} {image}

hi KiwiOz,

790 seems pretty much a sure thing - I'm wondering about 720... you reckon that's likely?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,310
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:03am Jan 12, 2014 7:03am
Good morning

Also gonna warn all y'all not to click on any link of the kind

Well, my short term vision was wrong, just when I thought I was onto something... Sorry for tagging your chart Venzen But yes the count you mentioned does fit very well
Quote
I never got to experience a Silk Road "high"
I think i laugh for a good five minutes

So according to the fib level we are heading down to 8 before touching 12, Is my interpretation correct ?
  • #1,311
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:11am Jan 12, 2014 7:11am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi KiwiOz, 790 seems pretty much a sure thing - I'm wondering about 720... you reckon that's likely?
No not at this stage. if it's going to get that low there will need to be a decent pullbak first.
Remember the gap to show on charts not weekend trading. That will show up in 9 hrs from now. I will be looking to trade the gap. UP
Money Makes Money
  • #1,312
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:13am Jan 12, 2014 7:13am
Yeah, I was gonna ask you that Kiwioz, since this week-end it would be a gap then it should fill it by going up ?
edit: but you just answered that
  • #1,313
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:15am Jan 12, 2014 7:15am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Check Fib's & targets on this chart.........No guarantee it will achieve the last target {image} {image}
Also look at the Fib' expansion targets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 43 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #1,314
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:22am Jan 12, 2014 7:22am
I'm off to bed. I got a gap to trade in the morning....cheers.
Money Makes Money
  • #1,315
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:23am Jan 12, 2014 7:23am
Quoting KiwiOz
I'm off to bed. I got a gap to trade in the morning....cheers.
Will post chart showing gap in the morning.
Money Makes Money
  • #1,316
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:20am Jan 12, 2014 8:20am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Will post chart showing gap in the morning.

thanks a lot - sweet tulip dreams!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,317
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:35am Jan 12, 2014 8:35am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning Also gonna warn all y'all not to click on any link of the kind Well, my short term vision was wrong, just when I thought I was onto something... Sorry for tagging your chart Venzen But yes the count you mentioned does fit very well {quote} I think i laugh for a good five minutes So according to the fib level we are heading down to 8 before touching 12, Is my interpretation correct ?
That old Silk Road nonsense - can you remember the days when every article about Bitcoin somehow mentioned that!

lady_luck, i don't know whats going on with PA - I expected a downtrend to go touch 720 - as per those examples in the past when PA would do a "double-tap" on each correction low... but I have no confidence to say for sure. In fact looking at the historic PA very hard today for maybe 8 hours non-stop, when I returned to the present wave up from ~400 area, my first thought was: "hey, this isn't an impulse, it's a B wave". But how could that be? It doesn't make sense.. that's why I prodded KiwiOz about lower lows... and you saw his repsonse.

I don't want to instroduce doubt but just for the record:

http://ubuntuone.com/561NUKgz8z0MGM6C5Zahz9
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,318
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:45am Jan 12, 2014 8:45am
Which broker offers you trade this crypto currency?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #1,319
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:56am Jan 12, 2014 8:56am
Quoting Yuri57
Sorry, but I don't understand your optimism. After an instrument rips off 80% of the investors only the fanatic still believe it would go up again. If it's a textbooks play, sell at 50% backtest and don't look back.
are you sure you want to trade this, Yuri57 ? Last time you were not so interested.

you have to be sure, because I'm not to blame if you become an 80%er

and if you trade it as it goes up again, who's calling who fanatic now?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,320
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:59am Jan 12, 2014 8:59am
Yeah I'm somewhat glad they killed SR. Despite the idea of taking drug of the street had potential, if they didn't btc would have been the one to die.

It's a contradiction because if you look at the low it can't be a wave B, but if you start by the high, then it does show as a B...

I'm afraid we are actual neither going to the moon nor to the center of earth any time soon. And may be those PA could be misleading because we are looking at them with a expectation of either ?

edit : also an other question, after looking at btc history, have you seen any impulse/diagonal within a topping B wave ?
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