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  • #1,321
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:47am Jan 12, 2014 9:47am
Quoting lady_luck
Yeah I'm somewhat glad they killed SR. Despite the idea of taking drug of the street had potential, if they didn't btc would have been the one to die. It's a contradiction because if you look at the low it can't be a wave B, but if you start by the high, then it does show as a B... I'm afraid we are actual neither going to the moon nor to the center of earth any time soon. And may be those PA could be misleading because we are looking at them with a expectation of either ? edit : also an other question, after looking at btc history, [b]have you...
Not sure exactly what you mean, LL, but i'll answer in two parts and hopefully one answer hits target!

1) Well of course a B wave has either 3 or 5 subwaves. If it's 3 subwaves then the last subwave is always an impulse or diagonal, namely subwave C. If wave B has 5 subwaves then it is a triangle. Triangles usually occur in B waves and 4th waves. In my previous post those waves circled in red are B waves (well the second one from the top is actually a D wave which is functionally no different from a B wave). B waves have the distinctive role of moving against the direction of trend - "correcting the correction" as it were! So they are usually characterized by choppy wave action and irrationality. We've been saying this current wave up is "not behaving as expected" but it is not very choppy... so there is no clear sign if this is the pre-launch or the pre-drop.

2) If you mean can a B wave make a high, higher than wave 5. Indeed, and this is called an irrelgular top. I played with the idea that BTC had made a wave 5 top at 750 in mid-November and that the wave to above $1000 was in fact a B wave followed by a C wave to the lows. But I quickly abandoned the idea - although theoretically possible it just doesn't make sense to count this chart in this way - the A wave is just too small and the C wave from the top just too big by comparison. Not sure this is what you were refering to... maybe ask the same in a different wording... "topping"?...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,322
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:47am Jan 12, 2014 9:47am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Facts are facts: {quote} {image} If this were an impulse then the action following the 1200 area top cannot be a wave 2 if we are indeed looking at a triangle (abcde - each subwave being a zigzag, complex zigzag combo, a flat or another triangle). The declining PA very much looks like a textbook triangle. However, it could be a combination (labelled W-X-Y etc). I am not a fan of WXY labelling because it is mostly a counting cop-out and can easily be relabelled with ABCDE without breaking any rules. Even so, I cannot see any clear zigzags...
I was thinking, sometime too much doubt, a bad call or two, and two much questions, but in my opinion I think you have a great judgment. That was a month ago, page 41. With the fact that you saw more cleary that ABCDE triangle on LTCUSD, i'd say that your call back then is very much valid today. I'd even say spot on

edit : the 2) answer my question
  • #1,323
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:58am Jan 12, 2014 9:58am
Quoting lady_luck
Yeah I'm somewhat glad they killed SR. Despite the idea of taking drug of the street had potential, if they didn't btc would have been the one to die. It's a contradiction because if you look at the low it can't be a wave B, but if you start by the high, then it does show as a B... I'm afraid we are actual neither going to the moon nor to the center of earth any time soon. And may be those PA could be misleading because we are looking at them with a expectation of either ? edit : also an other question, after looking at btc history, have...
Yep, this isn't going anywhere... my feeling also. I mean, sure a lot of media optimism and so-and-so Mr Big is investing $25 Gazillion in the famous Coinbase... but as BeautyBubble asks in one of her chart comments? Who is Mr Big actually? And come to think about it... Coinbase was never a major player... and where is this $25 gazillion and when will it hit the exchanges? Overstock.com report $126,000 worth of Bitcoin purchases on their first Bitcoin day. But didn't those go through the exchanges as BTC sales? Or simply change of owner in the blockchain?

So I think some reality is setting in and this may be it for the time being. Maybe slightly overbought. A consolidation phase and then the next rally - stronger for sure and setting up base above $1000.

Damn... I was hoping for a moon rocket - I had plans for those profits but will have to make some reality adjustments to my budget. If Bitcoin is going stagnant, it seems Gold and Silver have a good C wave rally coming up:

http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.blogspot.com/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,324
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:14am Jan 12, 2014 10:14am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I was thinking, sometime too much doubt, a bad call or two, and two much questions, but in my opinion I think you have a great judgment. That was a month ago, page 41. With the fact that you saw more cleary that ABCDE triangle on LTCUSD, i'd say that your call back then is very much valid today. I'd even say spot on edit : the 2) answer my question

Thanks for saying! (and glad the answer was satisfactory)

I see a pattern in my own trading which is this: On first glance I am able to assess a chart simply and with some accuracy. This is my "first impression" which is almost always correct. As I spend more time with the chart, take in others' opinions as well as start second guessing my own initial assessment, some doubts crawl in and with time I have forgotten my initial assessment and start acting on uncertainty and doubt. It usually then all goes wrong and I end up realizing: "hey but this is exactly how I foresaw this chart developing a few weeks/months ago!?" Why didn't I just stick to the original analysis? Because of lack of faith in my own analysis, over-analysing and overworking (overworking = tired = blurry memory/lack of focus). It is honestly a good time for me to spend more time away from the charts (and even the thread) and to trade bigger TFs with confidence. There is actually nothing that can go wrong with a modest sized BTC long position at current levels. PA is going nowhere and even lower lows cannot descend below the strong demand level near 400/500. It's like Jesse Livermore said:

Quoting Jesse Livermore
It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.
I don't have to sit because my phone has the chart and alerts. I want to get more exercise and enjoy my beautiful surroundings.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,325
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:26am Jan 12, 2014 10:26am
That sound like my plan from a month ago I should also got back to it

But i know what you mean about doubt, I used to get frustrated at myself for not following my first impression which was often the most accurate. But i also realized that those doubt even when they were preventing me from bigger gain were protecting me from more significant loss. And with it the ability to switch side faster when on the wrong position since ultimately this capacity for doubt imply not optimist/pessimist bias but fluidity of perspective.

And if the computer had to stay away from me, I would agree with a long position being the safest.
  • #1,326
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:46am Jan 12, 2014 10:46am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I was thinking, sometime too much doubt, a bad call or two, and two much questions, but in my opinion I think you have a great judgment. That was a month ago, page 41. With the fact that you saw more cleary that ABCDE triangle on LTCUSD, i'd say that your call back then is very much valid today. I'd even say spot on edit : the 2) answer my question
I just realized your question is not answered fully:

Can this current wave (if we assume it's a B wave for this argument) - can it make an ATH? Yes, I reckon it's got what it takes - this is very possible: if the present small decline bottoms around 700/800 (or even where it made a low today) that bottom can be labeled "wave D" (or wave X) and then an E wave (which is equivalent to a C wave) or a Y wave zigzag up can complete the correction. But it would have gone very high and most likely made a new ATH before it crashes down. This could be a classic "bull-trap".

Having said that, looking at the previous (April) top and subsequent correction we may consolidate for a few weeks before any new upside enthusiasm develops. The way this wave up from the 400 low just suddenly turned up before falling flat makes me think it was a fake-out - a false start. The market just doesn't have the will to commit to long positions and to hold them - what we discussed last night: fear of missing the rally is strong but the bullish spirit is away chewing grass under a shady tree somewhere
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,327
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:56am Jan 12, 2014 10:56am
Thanks for the more detailed answer, I think it's a great analysis, early December my more optimistic scenario for an other bull run was for mid-february, I don't know why I changed my mind...

edit : not I do, fear of the "last chance to buy my tulips"
  • #1,328
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:59am Jan 12, 2014 10:59am
Quoting lady_luck
That sound like my plan from a month ago I should also got back to it But i know what you mean about doubt, I used to get frustrated at myself for not following my first impression which was often the most accurate. But i also realized that those doubt even when they were preventing me from bigger gain were protecting me from more significant loss. And with it the ability to switch side faster when on the wrong position since ultimately this capacity for doubt imply not optimist/pessimist bias but fluidity of perspective. And if the computer...
Yes, i think this is our challenge in this profession. We learn to be cautious from getting our fingers burnt in the fire of the market. The fear is a healthy instinct protecting us from loss and encouraging us to think of what could go wrong and to have a plan B. But at the same time the fear is often a ego defense: I swear that if i look at a chart long enough and wonder about the safety of my trade plan long enough - eventually I will do the opposite of my plan and buy into an overbought RSI! Honestly, I do that because of doubt and fear of being wrong - more than belief in the method I have developed over the years. The ego pain of being wrong creates such massive self-sabotaging doubt that I can easily end up on the wrong side of trend despite me knowing better and having a good method. It's hard to explain but I think you know what I'm talking about.

Trading can really bring out some strange "Monsters of the Id"!

http://mutantreviewers.files.wordpre.../2011/02/f.jpg
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,329
  • Jan 12, 2014 11:07am Jan 12, 2014 11:07am
Great poster and movie

This little bit of schizophrenia is surely healthier than delusion of grandeur, i feel bad for those who don't doubt and got to always be right

Robby, the Robot,that's awesome !
  • #1,330
  • Jan 12, 2014 11:26am Jan 12, 2014 11:26am
Quoting venzen
{quote} are you sure you want to trade this, Yuri57 ? Last time you were not so interested. you have to be sure, because I'm not to blame if you become an 80%er and if you trade it as it goes up again, who's calling who fanatic now?

Who cares about your ego my friend?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #1,331
  • Jan 12, 2014 11:38am Jan 12, 2014 11:38am
Quoting lady_luck
Great poster and movie This little bit of schizophrenia is surely healthier than delusion of grandeur, i feel bad for those who don't doubt and got to always be right Robby, the Robot,that's awesome !
1) exactly

2) having always been a fan of scifi, i only saw Forbidden Planet for the first time a few years ago. It was so good to see a true classic with all the right ingredients: space travel, lost worlds, technology destroying its creators, Morpheus and the Monsters from the Id and Robbie the 1950s Robot... fantastic!

Seems BTC has found parity at current levels so I am going to go dream of Tulips and first assessment winning trades

Good bye for now and let's see what the new week brings.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,332
  • Edited 12:21pm Jan 12, 2014 11:43am | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} Who cares about your ego my friend?
Yes, yes Yuri, you see - this is why i don't want you around - because as you began here you carry on without skipping a beat - lowering the tone with your negative. You should have thought about the consequences of talking rough on page 1... now you're interested. Sorry, No help from me. Do me a favour and don't post here or I'll hit the "Eject" button for you.

Up to you.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,333
  • Jan 12, 2014 11:51am Jan 12, 2014 11:51am
Yes hopefully next week gap of kiwioz should reveal some action
Good night
  • #1,334
  • Jan 12, 2014 12:02pm Jan 12, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting lady_luck
Yes hopefully next week gap of kiwioz should reveal some action Good night

Indeed, thanks for reminding me - we've got to figure out how to limit session data in Tradingview so we can see those weekend gaps.

cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,335
  • Jan 12, 2014 1:11pm Jan 12, 2014 1:11pm
I've spent the last day reading this entire thread. I'm not even going to attempt to pretend I know anything at all about the charts, and all the lines you all have been drawing on your charts and the terminology you use. I'm not going to pretend I am anywhere near your levels of knowledge on this subject. Almost everyone on this thread seems to be 1000% more knowledgeable than I am. But I am going to give my thoughts on this....

I don't trade in bitcoin, I trade in litecoin. Again I don't know anything really about investing or trading. But what I've noticed is the price of litecoin is directly effected by the price of bitcoin. When bitcoin goes up or down, litecoin follows. And since I can own say 40 litecoin as opposed to 1 bitcoin, when the price swings I can make a better profit. I've only been doing this a month, but it has been working for me.

I use the MACD chart, and I really don't have a clue how to use it 100% effectively, but I look for trends and then buy or sell. Most of the time I do a decent job of getting in low and selling high. But sometimes I make the mistake of buying high. What I do differently from other people though, and it has been working for me is this. If I make this mistake of buying high, I don't panic sell. I hold onto it. With as volatile as it is I always say if you don't like the price, wait an hour. If you still don't like the price wait 1 more hour, it will change. Something I do to make the best of this "bad" situation when I buy high is leave the coins alone, wait for a bottom to inject more cash into my account, then when it finally passes a point where I can make a profit on the coins I bought too high, I sell them all. Then I wait for another low and buy again, repeat.

Like I said, I don't know even 1/100th of the things you guys know, but just thought I would share my thoughts and what has been working well for me. I'm sure my strategy is super obvious to all of you, but I notice the majority of the people panic sell and take a loss. I don't think there is ever a reason why someone should be loosing money. I feel that even if someone were to make the mistake of buying btc at $1000, it's not really a mistake. It will go up. When? Who knows, maybe in a week, a month, 6 months? Eventually it will go up. I take $800 a month out of my paycheck for savings. I used to put it in a bank savings account. Here in the last month as I have been getting active in the bitcoin market I just take my $800 and put it into my btc-e account. I'm up to $1700 and throughout this year I will continue to put my savings here. I think it will pay off by the end of the year because like most other people I believe the price will continue to rise throughout the year.
  • #1,336
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:50pm Jan 12, 2014 4:50pm
not that someone says I only provide negative articles about BTC

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-new-york-city
  • #1,337
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:51pm Jan 12, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting infinitus
not that someone says I only provide negative articles about BTC http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-new-york-city

BTW:

good evening Ladies and Gents


Hope you had a fabulous weekend
  • #1,338
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:55pm Jan 12, 2014 4:55pm
Quoting dcramer16
I've spent the last day reading this entire thread. I'm not even going to attempt to pretend I know anything at all about the charts, and all the lines you all have been drawing on your charts and the terminology you use. I'm not going to pretend I am anywhere near your levels of knowledge on this subject. Almost everyone on this thread seems to be 1000% more knowledgeable than I am. But I am going to give my thoughts on this.... I don't trade in bitcoin, I trade in litecoin. Again I don't know anything really about investing or trading. But what...

wish you all the best, and I just mean that


But overconfidence is sometimes a killer. Do not place all your eggs (savings) in one nest.

Nearly everytime I have done that in my life, it has backfired.......

JMHO
  • #1,339
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:59pm Jan 12, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} wish you all the best, and I just mean that But overconfidence is sometimes a killer. Do not place all your eggs (savings) in one nest. Nearly everytime I have done that in my life, it has backfired....... JMHO
Thanks infinitus, I know what you mean. I agree with you that there is a decent chance I am in the wrong for placing my eggs in 1 basket. But I didn't take anything out of my savings account. Instead I am taking the money I usually put in my savings account and placing it in litecoins instead. If I would have taken all my savings out and done this, I'd have to get my head examined!! But for the year going forward I think this is a good investment for my savings going forward. I think the price will continue to rise all year long. I could be wrong though, but that's why I have my savings account that I haven't touched! I have 2 choices, I can put my money in my banks savings account and earn 0.02% interest, or take a chance on bitcoin/litecoin and make a much better investment. I think it's a safe bet I can make money this way, even with no experience or knowledge, just about any idiot can make some good money doing this! LOL
  • #1,340
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:20pm Jan 12, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Yep, this isn't going anywhere... my feeling also. I mean, sure a lot of media optimism and so-and-so Mr Big is investing $25 Gazillion in the famous Coinbase... but as BeautyBubble asks in one of her chart comments? Who is Mr Big actually? And come to think about it... Coinbase was never a major player... and where is this $25 gazillion and when will it hit the exchanges? Overstock.com report $126,000 worth of Bitcoin purchases on their first Bitcoin day. But didn't those go through the exchanges as BTC sales? Or simply change of owner...

Hi Venzen,

I think, the author of this EW-blog went nuts. I think, how can he have labelled Gold as a gigantic ABC? I mean, how can someone label Gold and start with a corrective pattern? Does that mean, that Gold will be worth <0 when the impulse to the downside sets in? Just curious....

I too think that Gold has topped for the next years. From a historic chart view (log scale), the 200-300-400 area should be the wave 3 territory of 1 lesser degree now.

Will we go there in a straight line? Heck, nooooo. :-)

I think, when the recent move down has ended (for me ideally in the 1030-680 range // would love 680, because it is the deepest point of the wave 4 of one lesser degree), it may likely climb to the 1500 resistance shelf again, before a new drop occur. We will see

Personally, I can not see this drop below 680


Right now PPO and AO shows bullish divergence. Murrey Math also favors a move up.

Some try to count the move down from the 1433 top as two impulses. I think they have a somewhat overlapping substructure. Would make a nice ABC zigzag B-wave. Maybe we will see 1433 again in the following C-wave up rally.
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