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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,261
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:48am Jan 10, 2014 7:48am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi infinitus, thanks for the previous post on degree across time in Gold. I will sit with a chart and check this out. Agree with you on Fib time relationships - i've never been able to make meaningful forecasts projecting Fib time into the future. As you say, sometimes these relationships can be found in retrospect but there is no consistency (i am aware of) for getting dependable results when trying to forecast. Second the recommendation for Godim's Gann method. Between him and KiwiOz - these guys have shown me the most consistent methods...

Yes, Godim is very valuable. I hate it very much, that he was constantly attacked by some people, who could not get their head behind Gann
  • #1,262
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:00am Jan 10, 2014 8:00am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes, strange dreams of tulips floating in a south sea, pirates, shark and shiny treasure chest... I'm not too sure what to make of it ? I'll definitely look into Gann work, it was my next stop. I've started with trying to find some fib time relationship in Btc, and it worked very well. I had some amazing golden ratio showing-up over and over and repeating them-self at most degree. I thought I was onto something, but at some point (around october 2012) it all turned to complete non-sens. So i tried with other count, and again it worked...

lady_luck,

nice dream

Would be interesting to see what you find with Gann - I've seen people get great results with that - let's hope it has application in BTC. Fib (price and time) forecasting used to be my favourite and I reached a point where I thought I had transended ordinary humanity and become a "visionary" across space and time - but it ended just as abruptly! Gone. Same chart, same technique but the magic forecasting was gone. I guess the markets go through phases and sometimes for a few weeks or months a particular method just works but sadly it does not last forever...

people, I'll be around intermittently - price is painfully slow as the Bollinger Bands contract... I have an early start tomorrow: going to the mainland with various errands to run before the wind comes up mid afternoon and seatravel becomes treacherous. If a price alarm wakes me I may be back here later to share opinions
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,263
  • Jan 10, 2014 11:11am Jan 10, 2014 11:11am
M5

Just got a divergence alert that PA may reverse to the downside from area 825-840 (BTC-e). Indicators at M5 m15 and H1 are grouped in the overbought zones of RSI and Stochastics with Bollinger Bands around MACD (bottom) contracted very narrowly. This may be the end of red wave 'e' . Not sure this is going to happen but one confirmation will be rapid decline below 780. If PA does not breach 780 and advances beyond 850 then I'd interpret this as the start of a larger advance.

Here's an M5 chart

http://ubuntuone.com/6Ajxt79sjdSR0qyzsawWbl
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,264
  • Edited 1:07pm Jan 10, 2014 12:19pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting venzen
M5 Just got a divergence alert that PA may reverse to the downside from area 825-840 (BTC-e). Indicators at M5 m15 and H1 are grouped in the overbought zones of RSI and Stochastics with Bollinger Bands around MACD (bottom) contracted very narrowly. This may be the end of red wave 'e' . Not sure this is going to happen but one confirmation will be rapid decline below 780. If PA does not breach 780 and advances beyond 850 then I'd interpret this as the start of a larger advance. Here's an M5 chart {image}
Yeah it's definitly a turning point.
By the way lately i've been looking a lot at the RSI and stoch, it's kinda har to describe but it's not so much that the RSI doesn't follow price anymore, I've noticed two different case of figure in either raise or decline, when it's within a triangle or diagonal the RSI seem to move up and down much faster than the PA, but outside of a triangle or diagonal or close to the apex, then a tiny crossing or narrow down would be the sign of a massive move. Also, larger move up use to start with a RSI at the bottom and logicly move down with a RSI at the top, now this seem more likely to happen when those crossing/narrowing/expansion in the RSI at around 50 level.

edit :

what it is with blue circle divergence being more accurate signal than what it use to with green and red to buy and sell :

http://i40.tinypic.com/2w4czzo.png
what it was
http://i44.tinypic.com/1j6kgz.png
  • #1,265
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:47pm Jan 10, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yeah it's definitly a turning point. By the way lately i've been looking a lot at the RSI and stoch, it's kinda har to describe but it's not so much that the RSI doesn't follow price anymore, I've noticed two different case of figure in either raise or decline, when it's within a triangle or diagonal the RSI seem to move up and down much faster than the PA, but outside of a triangle or diagonal or close to the apex, then a tiny crossing or narrow down would be the sign of a massive move. Also, larger move up use to start with a RSI at the...
RSI is a strange indicator - but it never lies! I reckon if I had the faith and the discipline to just follow my RSI buy/sell signals I'd have a lot of profitable trades to show every week.

I've got the RSI in my chart (top indicator) set up to show reverse divergence (sometimes called "hidden" divergence). Those green and blue dots are instances where RSI makes a higher high but price makes a lower high. If you notice it's really accurate! The red and orange dots are cases where RSI makes a LL but price only a HL... the orange dots are especially useful when price is trending upwards because even when normal (regular) divergence sets in - as long as an orange dot appears, PA will go and make another swing high.

I coded this indicator in Tradingview and can pass you the indicator code if you want.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,266
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:49pm Jan 10, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yeah it's definitly a turning point. By the way lately i've been looking a lot at the RSI and stoch, it's kinda har to describe but it's not so much that the RSI doesn't follow price anymore, I've noticed two different case of figure in either raise or decline, when it's within a triangle or diagonal the RSI seem to move up and down much faster than the PA, but outside of a triangle or diagonal or close to the apex, then a tiny crossing or narrow down would be the sign of a massive move. Also, larger move up use to start with a RSI at the...

we're simultaneously posting on the same topic again

I see you just added charts/emaples to this post but they are realy small and don't expand when i click on them..
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,267
  • Edited Jan 11, 2014 4:33am Jan 10, 2014 1:18pm | Edited Jan 11, 2014 4:33am
Quoting venzen
{quote} we're simultaneously posting on the same topic again I see you just added charts/emaples to this post but they are realy small and don't expand when i click on them..
Yeah I was looking at your RSI dot before and tried to figure them out, thanks you for the explanation I've started to look into Gann as well, it doesn't make as much sens in my head as EW did at the first glance, so that gonna take time....

bed time edit : I don't wan't to jump the gun with a last bad call before my nightly tulips dreams, but I do not see any wave count that could justify me waking up to price below 780 (stamp, btce, china), in my opinion any potential wave further below have now been refuted by current PA .

China (Huobi---> since when have they became the biggest chinese exchange ?? Since BTCCHINA CEO "lost face" in front of the PBOC??)http://i42.tinypic.com/akxxn6.png
  • #1,268
  • Jan 10, 2014 10:24pm Jan 10, 2014 10:24pm
Looking at PA on the other echanges, especially MtGox, I have relabeled the triangle (which seems to be a B wave)

http://ubuntuone.com/2LR44CqbrFHESNdDDhituA
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,269
  • Jan 11, 2014 3:35am Jan 11, 2014 3:35am
......Hello guys and gals.......

I still see the triangle on the daily and 4 hour is up, if one hour gets choco over red I think we are going for a trip north, so buckle up boy and girls, and keep and eye on one hour chart.......see you up there.....

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The Chonchy
  • #1,270
  • Jan 11, 2014 4:31am Jan 11, 2014 4:31am
Quoting chonchy
......Hello guys and gals....... I still see the triangle on the daily and 4 hour is up, if one hour gets choco over red I think we are going for a trip north, so buckle up boy and girls, and keep and eye on one hour chart.......see you up there..... {image} {image} {image}

Nice charts Chonchy
Hey everyone been offline a couple days because of moving. Hopefully be back I a couple days. Looks like it has been sideways consolidation with a break out happpening to the heaven side...
  • #1,271
  • Jan 11, 2014 4:48am Jan 11, 2014 4:48am
Quoting venzen
Looking at PA on the other echanges, especially MtGox, I have relabeled the triangle (which seems to be a B wave) {image}
Good morning
I can't see the "A" on your chart ? Would it be the low before the red "1" ?
  • #1,272
  • Edited 6:52am Jan 11, 2014 5:10am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting Ozes
{quote} Nice charts Chonchy Hey everyone been offline a couple days because of moving. Hopefully be back I a couple days. Looks like it has been sideways consolidation with a break out happpening to the heaven side...

Thanks is nice to be lock in profits looking at the heavens......pay attention to one hour I said........notice the cross and how it took off, choco and red ema cross.........


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The Chonchy
  • #1,273
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:12am Jan 11, 2014 5:12am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good morning I can't see the "A" on your chart ? Would it be the low before the red "1" ?

good morning, but I have to get some sleep, later lady_luck.......good luck to you all.....
The Chonchy
  • #1,274
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:14am Jan 11, 2014 5:14am
I wish is goes to the trend line on top of the triangle, is what it looks like, all chart are in sync now for the up......

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The Chonchy
  • #1,275
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:16am Jan 11, 2014 5:16am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} good morning, but I have to get some sleep, later lady_luck.......good luck to you all.....
Good night to you I hope your wife is better by the way
  • #1,276
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:17am Jan 11, 2014 5:17am
.......Smaller time frames are a bit overbought specially 5M, but as lagging indicators they can go the distance some time, we will see........

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The Chonchy
  • #1,277
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:33am Jan 11, 2014 5:33am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good night to you I hope your wife is better by the way
she is in a lot of pain because they work on her a lot I guess, so after the anesticia went out she is being in a lot of pain and the doctor left that stent on her I don't know why, the stone is removed already, but I guess if he doesn't leave it, she don't have to come back to his office and he don't have anybody to charge anymore, lol, conspiracy theorist, I'm I, ah? or maybe he destroy it and he leave it there so the sand or particles of it, come out, but is very uncountable and painful she said, Tylenol 650 two of then every 4 hours, but she don't like pain killers so imagine, is a nightmare here and she gets upset and grab it with who ever pass by her, lol, poor soul, Monday is coming out thanks god, for $1400 dollars, no insurance here after her company went to India for better business conditions, less salary les regulations and less pensions and retirement benefits, lol always looking for a chance to rant here, lol poor government they are not guilty of the job situation is the Indian people that don't care about their employees, lol here they do, they give the employees what is necessary, but globalization is the name of the game, so either wise up or die, we need to compete with the same weapon or else, Americans don't want to make less than minimum salary and save for retirement so the government don't have to take care of you, that they won't but at least they take your money as if they do, lol.....I think the game is too advance, we are all feck in here, civil war or separation of the union is the next step for the American people me think, I could be wrong, being wrong before........
The Chonchy
  • #1,278
  • Jan 11, 2014 6:50am Jan 11, 2014 6:50am
RSI have some room up to the upper trend line, keep an eye on daily.......

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The Chonchy
  • #1,279
  • Edited 7:36am Jan 11, 2014 6:50am | Edited 7:36am
chonchy,

Godspeed with your wife's condition and the social/employment conditions there where you are.

BTC - it looks like a weekend rally is underway and once again PA went exactly the opposite from what I expected - I hope some of you took the opposite position to what I called from my analysis!

Anyhow, if you missed that opportunity, here's the next one: As KiwiOz illustrated, the "gap" created by weekend trade tends to get closed in the subsequent trading week, which implies that we will see 830 again by maybe next Tuesday/Wednesday?

Some insight:
I am suffering from an acute bout of god-damned bad luck - by the nefarious opposition of astrological clockwork and animal spirits I was born into. I was told that this dispensation would take hold a year ago. And take hold it did... one day upon its termination I will tell you the full pitiful story. I mention this because it would be conceitful of me not to warn my colleagues that my calls are opposite to what eventually unfolds. I thought it had finished but its end (in Feb) was confirmed by the temple this morning. In dealing with it, I will maintain my method - a cunning workaround whereby I am constantly in the market at full leverage, full position but hedged both ways. Let's see if those malignant forces that seek to torment me can find a way around that! Heh! By end-Febuary I am told by my temple monks, the period of tribulation will vanish like mist before the morning sun and I can cut loose the hedge - once I have confirmed of course that price does not move in the opposite direction from my calls anymore. Life is very strange.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,280
  • Jan 11, 2014 6:59am Jan 11, 2014 6:59am
Quoting venzen
chonchy, Godspeed with your wife's condition and the social/employment conditions there where you are. BTC - it looks like a weekend rally is underway and once again PA went exactly the opposite from what I expected - I hope some of you took the opposite position to what I called from my analysis! Anyhow, if you missed that opportunity, here's the next one: As KiwiOz illustrated, the "gap" created by weekend trade tends to get closed in the subsequent trading week, which implies that we will see 830 again by maybe next Tuesday/Wednesday? Some insight:...
Thanks venzen for my wife's godspeed........

Hope those malignant forces go away in deed fast my friend.......in this range is good to hedge but watch it don't go one way and never comeback I mean if it goes over 1000 again, it may go places.......
The Chonchy
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