As I see it. But then I am not a Ew expert by any means..{image}
place the A where you have the B, the B where you have C, and the C where you have D
now it makes sense
- #1,241
- Jan 9, 2014 5:56pm Jan 9, 2014 5:56pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
place the A where you have the B, the B where you have C, and the C where you have D
now it makes sense
- #1,242
- Jan 9, 2014 6:00pm Jan 9, 2014 6:00pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Hello, It definitely appears as the most optimistic outcome, I find your method very fascinating, I don't quiet understand it, but your results speaks for it. I might consider an other triangle within the purple line of your first chart before a sharp move. Good night/day trading everyone
and dream of tulips......
- #1,243
- Jan 9, 2014 8:13pm Jan 9, 2014 8:13pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Bitcoiner | 20,231 Posts
....This is what I see, but the break of it will be when I add or enter short a hedge if it breaks down......
The Chonchy
- #1,244
- Jan 9, 2014 8:15pm Jan 9, 2014 8:15pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Bitcoiner | 20,231 Posts
.....Tulips?......
The Chonchy
- #1,245
- Jan 9, 2014 8:38pm Jan 9, 2014 8:38pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Bitcoiner | 20,231 Posts
......On a retest of 778 I'm a buyer again.....
The Chonchy
- #1,246
- Jan 9, 2014 9:53pm Jan 9, 2014 9:53pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #1,247
- Jan 9, 2014 11:04pm Jan 9, 2014 11:04pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
Just a thought..... IF Bitcoin is to go to the moon...Over 3000. Then it is possible wave 3 is underway & we are now starting wave 3 of 3 of 5. Just remember I am no EW etition....{image}
Judging from my own great EWetitionism recently I would be wise not to pass judgement on your count - no reason at all that your count is not the case... i am leaning toward learning your magic trendline method for its greater eficacy at predicting the same waves that the "Wave" Principle cannot!
cryptocurrency everytime
- #1,248
- Jan 10, 2014 12:40am Jan 10, 2014 12:40am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
.....Tulips?...... {image}
- #1,249
- Jan 10, 2014 12:41am Jan 10, 2014 12:41am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} heheheh! how much did you pay for those. chonchy?
He gave ME all his Bitcoins
- #1,250
- Jan 10, 2014 1:17am Jan 10, 2014 1:17am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} I knew that you are the tulip-men
ok ok ok - you discovered our little secret! but if this gets out... i swear... you see that tulip bulb - now imagine... nevermind
cryptocurrency everytime
- #1,251
- Jan 10, 2014 1:24am Jan 10, 2014 1:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
{quote} KO, Judging from my own great EWetitionism recently I would be wise not to pass judgement on your count - no reason at all that your count is not the case... i am leaning toward learning your magic trendline method for its greater eficacy at predicting the same waves that the "Wave" Principle cannot!
I hardly ever label waves. Only do so to promote discussion. ( Born stirrer)..
Money Makes Money
- #1,252
- Jan 10, 2014 2:03am Jan 10, 2014 2:03am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} The only part of those counts I would be prepared to change at present is ( If Bitcoin is headed for the moon) placing wave 1"yellow" where wave 3 is. This would mean we are currently shagging around in wave 2 of 1 of 5.......
clever and naughty both - a true Kiwi
allow me to speak truthfully for a moment (since you are the only one present to hear me):
The count is IMO actually irrelevant - few people are aware that the pushermen of EWP (namely EW International) have not gotten a wave forecast right for 20 years and there is little of substance I (or anyone else) can confidently say about Bitcoin using EW analysis. I believe this chart is in its initial small degree baby-waves. Putting 1 and 1 together we know for a fact it's going way up at some point in the coming weeks. We're probably best off checking the count at $1500, $3000, $5000 and perhaps $10,000 if anyone still feels to trade this instrument beyond $5,000 by which time the banks and institutional interference would have reduced it's usefulness to that of every other piece of... you get my drift.
Good to have you here KiwiOz and kindly keep hitting us with your personalized DeMark method.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #1,253
- Edited 2:21am Jan 10, 2014 2:08am | Edited 2:21am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} He gave ME all his Bitcoins
on a serious note and regarding principle, you mentioned Bitcoin is in Cycle degree yesterday. Can you elaborate on that because as far as I understand the Wave Principle is sequential and we cannot attain Cycle degree wave 1 without first completing the component subwaves. Given the 4 year chart history and the broader Cycle degree in other commodities, we should not even have completed Intermediate degree 1 yet. You see what I mean?
cryptocurrency everytime
- #1,254
- Jan 10, 2014 2:48am Jan 10, 2014 2:48am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} infinitus, on a serious note and regarding principle, you mentioned Bitcoin is in Cycle degree yesterday. Can you substantiate that because as far as I understand the Wave Principle is sequential and we cannot attain Cycle degree wave 1 without first completing the component subwaves. Given the 4 year chart history and the broader Cycle degree in other commodities, we should not even have completed Intermediate degree 1 yet. You see what I mean?
well, in most other assets a primary degree wave develops within a few month up to a handful years.
So when I say BTC wave 1 is primary degree, this is rather conservative.
Take the EURUSD weekly chart
you see the very top at around 1.6x
the first leg down is either intermediate degree (wave A of ABC zigzag) or primary degree (impulsive wave A) (the following ups and downs are most probably then a triangle of intermediate degree)
There are no hard rules how much time a wave degree has to consume. It has to fit, in the end, into the bigger picture.
But 4 years of waves are certainly nothing on minute wave degree.
And from trading perspective it is rather meaningless, which degree we are in, unless you feel the need to forcast things for the next 10 years or so.
All what we do need to know, is: when is the recent impulsive wave up (or corrective wave up) finished. All other talk about wave degree is just semantics
To say that Prechter is since 20 years wrong, is completely misleading. Not defending him, as I too was not everytime satisfied with his counts, but he had really some great counts in the months and years back. For example the Gold top at around 1900 (beside of many other good calls)
Simply put: even EWI are just humans - can be right, can be wrong
Remembering: EW is not about being right or being wrong. It is just about presenting the most probable count, and knowing, when one is wrong.
The herd moves in one direction, until it changes direction. For this change of direction it does not even need an extrinsic factor. So a count can get anytime moot (without the meaning, that the Elliottican is a nincompoop)
People should not confuse probability with certainty
- #1,255
- Jan 10, 2014 2:51am Jan 10, 2014 2:51am
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
{quote} clever and naughty both - a true Kiwi
Money Makes Money
- #1,257
- Jan 10, 2014 6:28am Jan 10, 2014 6:28am
{quote} He gave ME all his Bitcoins
Yeah, but you had to give him all your Tulips ! Bad, bad, bad move
More seriously, I had a question about proportion, did you find a common time factor between wave of different degree. For example 59 weeks at intermediate degree from 1 to 3 is 0.39 of 150. Was it similar as a primary degree ?
If so, in your opinion, how valid would it be to use time ratio as a confirmation of one count ?
- #1,258
- Jan 10, 2014 7:20am Jan 10, 2014 7:20am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Good morning
Good morning Lady,
hope you had wonderful dreams
(the tulips, the tulips are hunting me)I am not a big fan of time considerations in Elliott Wave. I think Elliott himself had not find some good time relationships.
What we can see, is, that there is sometimes kind of fib-time-relationship. But out of my view does not work very good, only in hindsight.
As stated earlier, the wave degrees are somewhat dynamical. Sometimes a primary takes a few months, another time it takes years. So I can not see any rule here.
Maybe a good idea here for you, if interested, is to study the work of Gann (when price and time comes together). In my thread, "The Club", there is a guy called "Godim". He is very knowledgeable, especially Gann.
I think, when you are interested in time and time cycles, Gann will be the solution, not Elliott wave
- #1,259
- Jan 10, 2014 7:44am Jan 10, 2014 7:44am
{quote} Good morning Lady, hope you had wonderful dreams
I'll definitely look into Gann work, it was my next stop. I've started with trying to find some fib time relationship in Btc, and it worked very well.
I had some amazing golden ratio showing-up over and over and repeating them-self at most degree.
I thought I was onto something, but at some point (around october 2012) it all turned to complete non-sens. So i tried with other count, and again it worked fine for 2010-2011 but then again -stopped.
So I went to the conclusion that the BTC cycle up to 2012 was a "stand-alone" now over.
But i'll have a look into that thread, see what I can get out of it, thanks for the info
- #1,260
- Jan 10, 2014 7:45am Jan 10, 2014 7:45am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} Good morning Lady, hope you had wonderful dreams
hi infinitus,
thanks for the previous post on degree across time in Gold. I will sit with a chart and check this out.
Agree with you on Fib time relationships - i've never been able to make meaningful forecasts projecting Fib time into the future. As you say, sometimes these relationships can be found in retrospect but there is no consistency (i am aware of) for getting dependable results when trying to forecast.
Second the recommendation for Godim's Gann method. Between him and KiwiOz - these guys have shown me the most consistent methods for predicting the target of the next move
cryptocurrency everytime