Bitcoin technical analysis | Page 59 | Crypto Craft

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

BTC/USD

Similar Threads

Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 21 replies

Bitcoin Analysis 22 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

Attachments: Bitcoin technical analysis
Exit Attachments

Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,161
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:48am Jan 8, 2014 10:48am
Quoting emptymind
yes i understand the original wave 4 hasn't been invalidated yet but it was too deep for a wave 4 correction. it just looks wrong plus i don't like it when wave 4 gets out of the channel.... i found a mini fractal version of the whole larger pattern. if we were alert we could have predicted how the bigger pattern will behave i think someone should research how fractals work and write a book about it. no need counting waves... just look for patterns {image} the reason why wave 5 isn't short because it's extended... it's like when wave wave 5 extends...

well spotted - they're the same pattern as you say. Maybe we get another bigger version again?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,162
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:57am Jan 8, 2014 10:57am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Well, you are not the only one. But really, that just follow the result of the two guys that been looking at their 20% the whole time. I don't know if that makes sens, but to me it does, it's similar as History of Human conflicts. Does a war starts because the domino were put in line for a decade, or because of a detail event. Someone get shot dead in Sarajevo and a war start, or the war was going to starts so poor Franz get shot ? Or the opposite, the cold war, bad news after bad news, but the domino never were in line because of this...
Sorry i went offline for a while - i'm over-tired and start getting irritated with PA - not a good mindset for handling trades, so i just closed and walked away for a few hours.

Good discussion and rant BTW... enjoy the logic and exploration of causes and effects. When things are uncertain like this there is nothing that should force us to make decisions or "figure it out"... just wait for PA to show it's intentions, i guess.

What's been the most disconcerting for me has been my failure to spot what PA's intention is until the last few subwaves. Also missing out on most the action. I was feeling very confident until a few days ago and thought we'd have a retracement and then head for 1000 but when i looked again we were at 950 (BTC-e) and my morale just sank. Anyway, no time to sulk about it - we have to keep on swimming and look out for the next opportunity. I'm glad emptymind spotted that fractal - it would have been good to have identified that wave pattern sooner as a template for the subsequent action - but we always have 20/20 vision in hindsight, not true?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,163
  • Jan 8, 2014 11:02am Jan 8, 2014 11:02am
i'm not saying anything about direction or targets - just posting this for what its worth - strong support at 780 being retested and the fib levels upwards really proving to be reaction zones

BTCUSD (BTC-e) M5

http://ubuntuone.com/4e5av7070YRyv67pOSLWHb
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,164
  • Edited 11:25am Jan 8, 2014 11:11am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting venzen
i'm not saying anything about direction or targets - just posting this for what its worth - strong support at 780 being retested and the fib levels upwards really proving to be reaction zones BTCUSD (BTC-e) M5 {image}
Yeah, hmm looks like a rectangle/triangle with flat top and bottom, hmmm indecisive prices and tiredness...
  • #1,165
  • Jan 8, 2014 12:00pm Jan 8, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yeah, hmm looks like a rectangle/triangle with flat top and bottom, hmmm indecisive prices and tiredness...

hopefully its a triangle in this position: we'll then know its either wave 4 or wave B - the wave just prior to the last actionary wave... let's see where this one ends.

I'm out for now. See everybody tomorrow - hopefully for some good motive wave action and more clarity.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,166
  • Edited 2:48pm Jan 8, 2014 2:29pm | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} There is a wave phenomenon (not covered in the EWP textbook) but visible in the EurUsd, in the USD index and in Silver and Gold whereby they do not form impulses above sub-minuette degree but "diagonals"... I'm putting my money on a massive run to the upside. It would be wise to wait for confirmation, since we may be in a B wave up at present before another wave C down, but if BTC clears 1000 in the coming days or hours it's next target is 1500 and then surely 2000? What do you think?
never heard of such diagonals. i just try to follow normal wave labeling.

i think market is in wave 2 correction at this time. we should expect 61.8% retracement; 700ish? my opnion is buy bitcoins anytime you can at these levels. doesn't matter at 900 or 500... you don't have to time it perfectly. this is a four bagger in the making. own bitcoins; do not trade it

i like physical gold too more than bitcoins; not gold futures. im expecting a gold revaluation sometime in 2014. the system will be reset.

Quoting lady_luck
Hello Emptymind, Yeah, I had the same observation about fractals, i see exactly what you mean. So if in order i were to label (1) and (3) the two pink domes after 2 and before 3, then since your 4 doesn't overlap (1) we could assume that now, if similar wave, it shouldn't overlap and touch the top of the territory of 1, which was 720 on btce. So that would mean that the retracement is over ?
Hi. i think the fractal pattern is over and should not be relied on... i belive market is trading wave 2 at this time. as you know wave 2s are quite destructive... minimum 50% to more likely 61.8% retracement usually
  • #1,167
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:00pm Jan 8, 2014 6:00pm
........I got bit by this short without any fundament, but that is how the news and panic interfere with the markets and some use it very well, I don't know if this case is being manipulated but this pair is long and monthly, weekly and daily charts ar long and price should have gone over 1000 but for some reason didn't, but I see all chart long all moving averages over 100 ema and is sliding on the daily, sliding means for us moving averages traders, that price is over 100 ema but other slower ema's cross each other and then continue the same way they were coming, usually news, panic and other factors cause this slides, but even 4H is up, sliding also but up, as long as blue ema don't cross red ema 100, this chart is up, just sliding.....so just waiting for the small times frames get on sync, I'm already long.......and lock in profits also.....so let see this time.......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdmonthly.png Size: 23 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdweekly.png Size: 28 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 35 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 34 KB
The Chonchy
  • #1,168
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:00pm Jan 8, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} never heard of such diagonals. i just try to follow normal wave labeling. i think market is in wave 2 correction at this time. we should expect 61.8% retracement; 700ish? my opnion is buy bitcoins anytime you can at these levels. doesn't matter at 900 or 500... you don't have to time it perfectly. this is a four bagger in the making. own bitcoins; do not trade it i like physical gold too more than bitcoins; not gold futures. im expecting a gold revaluation sometime in 2014. the system will be reset. {quote} Hi. i think the fractal pattern...
As for orthodox counting, that's great because I often find the new-fangled wave counting methods (Neowave, etc) are money-making scams and any wave must in the end be deconstructed to an elemental type fitting impulse, diagonal, zigzag, flat or triangle.

So it's great to have a counter in the thread who wears his cap straight and keeps us all grounded

However, and without saying your count of a wave 1 completed is wrong, we have to consider that in the proposed leading diagonal, subwave 3 is rendered the shortest wave if we label the wave 12345 to the top. I checked and there is no rule that says 5 must be the shortest and 3 the longest in a leading diag. In fact, wave 1 would normally be the longest in a contracting diag. Wave 3 the shortest is not necessarily a problem and subsequent action will no doubt clarify everything...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,169
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:08pm Jan 8, 2014 10:08pm
Quoting chonchy
........I got bit by this short without any fundament, but that is how the news and panic interfere with the markets and some use it very well, I don't know if this case is being manipulated but this pair is long and monthly, weekly and daily charts ar long and price should have gone over 1000 but for some reason didn't, but I see all chart long all moving averages over 100 ema and is sliding on the daily, sliding means for us moving averages traders, that price is over 100 ema but other slower ema's cross each other and then continue the same way...

hi chonchy,

Glad to hear from your post yesterday that your wife is doing well - hopefully by today all is completed and the cause and symptoms resolved.

Thanks for explaining your MA method. I hope this current phase of sliding passes quickly. By my own RSI/MACD method on multi TFs I am long (and ready to hedge in case we have more downside). There is no bad news for Bitcoin at the moment so this is IMO a consolidation below 1000 before the big push beyond. So more like positioning and anticipation than uncertainty or fear.

Like emptymind, lady_luck and yourself have said before: Anything below 1000 is a buy because beyond 1000 the rally will be crazy
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,170
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:21pm Jan 8, 2014 10:21pm
Quoting chonchy
........I got bit by this short without any fundament, but that is how the news and panic interfere with the markets and some use it very well, I don't know if this case is being manipulated but this pair is long and monthly, weekly and daily charts ar long and price should have gone over 1000 but for some reason didn't, but I see all chart long all moving averages over 100 ema and is sliding on the daily, sliding means for us moving averages traders, that price is over 100 ema but other slower ema's cross each other and then continue the same way...

el chonchy,

what are the periods of the blue and choco EMAs ?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,171
  • Edited 1:01am Jan 9, 2014 12:48am | Edited 1:01am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi chonchy, Glad to hear from your post yesterday that your wife is doing well - hopefully by today all is completed and the cause and symptoms resolved. Thanks for explaining your MA method. I hope this current phase of sliding passes quickly. By my own RSI/MACD method on multi TFs I am long (and ready to hedge in case we have more downside). There is no bad news for Bitcoin at the moment so this is IMO a consolidation below 1000 before the big push beyond. So more like positioning and anticipation than uncertainty or fear. Like emptymind,...
.....Thanks venzen for all, yes the doctor is going to see her on Tuesday to see if a diet will fix things in the future, I think is the calcium.....


.....Agree with you guys on all counts......
The Chonchy
  • #1,172
  • Jan 9, 2014 12:55am Jan 9, 2014 12:55am
Quoting venzen
{quote} el chonchy, what are the periods of the blue and choco EMAs ?
.....The blue ema is a 5 period and the choco is a 30 period.........

......This 30M is turning and one hour is also turning, once they are all turn, all ema's over red ema 100, this think is going to take off, but I think there is another run down, as this 30M and 15M are a bit oversold, RSI is already turning down on 15M, so another trip down may be necessary for the full sync and trip north, "If" and only if all fundamentals stay the same and no new events comes alone and ruin it.......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 34 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 35 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm30.png Size: 35 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm15.png Size: 39 KB
The Chonchy
  • #1,173
  • Jan 9, 2014 12:58am Jan 9, 2014 12:58am
.....15M and 4 Hour are up and 30M and one Hour are down, once they all sync for the up it will go up........trust me on this....
The Chonchy
  • #1,174
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:49am Jan 9, 2014 1:49am
Quoting chonchy
.....15M and 4 Hour are up and 30M and one Hour are down, once they all sync for the up it will go up........trust me on this....

i see that too - the shorter TF want to go down a bit and then they will all sync for advance - besides in the past there are few examples where a second dip to the same low does not occur:

see the green lines for double-dips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Selection_09Jan14_14:22.png Size: 69 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,175
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:54am Jan 9, 2014 1:54am
here are some examples of past advances - they look very much the same.

In the middle is the current wave up - I am suspecting that it may be a B wave to the upside followed by a C wave back to the lows near 400. But how can this be? Lady_luck mentioned this before and my objection was that the entire correction would just be too big compared to the wave going up - out of proportion. Also: the fundamentals and mood just don't imply this...

Either we go down in a long drawn out C wave as has happened in most corrections in the past or we go up in a rocking 5th wave as can be witnessed in the previous advance waves.

http://ubuntuone.com/69K0f22Ist2ouZ8ulx7pFm
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,176
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:03am Jan 9, 2014 2:03am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} .....The blue ema is a 5 period and the choco is a 30 period......... ......This 30M is turning and one hour is also turning, once they are all turn, all ema's over red ema 100, this think is going to take off, but I think there is another run down, as this 30M and 15M are a bit oversold, RSI is already turning down on 15M, so another trip down may be necessary for the full sync and trip north, "If" and only if all fundamentals stay the same and no new events comes alone and ruin it....... {image} {image} {image} {image}

850 (BTC-e) is coming up and this one is an old S/R, so we might get reversal right there - how far down PA will drop i'm not sure but it could potentially be a strong decline to 720 and maybe even 600... where do you see MA support?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,177
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:07am Jan 9, 2014 3:07am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} never heard of such diagonals. i just try to follow normal wave labeling. i think market is in wave 2 correction at this time. we should expect 61.8% retracement; 700ish? my opnion is buy bitcoins anytime you can at these levels. doesn't matter at 900 or 500... you don't have to time it perfectly. this is a four bagger in the making. own bitcoins; do not trade it i like physical gold too more than bitcoins; not gold futures. im expecting a gold revaluation sometime in 2014. the system will be reset. {quote} Hi. i think the fractal...
emptymind,

what is a "four bagger"?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,178
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:47am Jan 9, 2014 4:47am
Quoting chonchy
.....15M and 4 Hour are up and 30M and one Hour are down, once they all sync for the up it will go up........trust me on this....
30M still down and one hour also still down but they are turning for the up, but 30M still down, sliding the choco ema with the red ema, if 30 Minutes cross for the up, one hour will follow, if they booth turn, it will break out to the up side, but I can't stay awake anymore......if I get stop rinse and repeat....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm30.png Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 34 KB
The Chonchy
  • #1,179
  • Edited 6:53am Jan 9, 2014 6:41am | Edited 6:53am
Hello,

Here are two recent (november 10th to 21st) times were I was deceived by a potential 4th wave, expecting an ED and then triangles that never happened. (the red - - - - lines on the chart)
The way it broke the pattern (in a false confirmation or strange pullback/throwback...) before resuming the uptrend is interesting

http://i.imgur.com/CddqtHO.png
  • #1,180
  • Jan 9, 2014 7:05am Jan 9, 2014 7:05am
Quoting lady_luck
Hello, Here are two recent (november 10th to 21st) times were I was deceived by a potential 4th wave, expecting an ED and then triangles that never happened. (the red - - - - lines on the chart) The way it broke the pattern (in a false confirmation or strange pullback/throwback...) before resuming the uptrend is interesting {image}

hi lady_luck, i see what you mean by "deceived" - Bitcoin has the ability to just keep on trending without any significant correction, doesn't it? And then when it does correct it doesn't play around and comes right back more than 50%. I guess this is both a blessing and a curse - we benefit from massive advances - but get caught long when a correction happens and feel the pain. I try to remind myself that PA is guaranteed to return to whatever upside it achieved sooner or later.
cryptocurrency everytime
0 traders viewing now