Bitcoin technical analysis

......She is out of the procedure and the stone is out, they left the stent and will take it out tomorrow, don't know why they left it but they are the doctors, lol, some times they know more than us.....
.......so thanks a lot for your prayers and she said thanks also, god bless you Dana, be back tomorrow, they are going to leave her here for observations one more day, so thanks again and talk to you later guys, good luck to all.....talk to you later....

she is doing fine venzen, the internet at the hospital sucks and I'm so dead tire of sleeping in this chair I can use a bed for two hours, I think they are just looking how she react to all this, we will keep in touch later, bitcoin bit me in the ass, I'm out with no profit lol, I should have taken profits at the top but greed is a mofo, take care and good luck to all, trade well........

Glad to hear everything went well.

Don't worry about that trade. This is only the beginning here below $1000 - for us to familiarize ourselves with the new market and chart behaviour. Plenty more opportunities - and Bigger ones - coming up

Rest well.

BTCUSD (BTC-e) H4

The pullback retraced close to 50% of the wave up from the Dec lows. H4 RSI says trend must now resume upwards but that remains to be seen...

http://ubuntuone.com/708dpIgZhaopI17vx2ol6A

BTCUSD (BTC-e) H1

A closer look on the H1 chart shows that wave 'c' is 2.236 the length of wave 'a' - which nearly coincides with the 50% retracement of the entire wave up. Additionally, all indicators are flat out at the bottom of their ranges at the low, but the absence of divergence in MACD is a concern... even at M5 TF there is no definitive MACD divergence for wave 'c', so another wave down cannot be ruled out.

PA is battling with two TLs and success or failure at this juncture will make things a lot clearer. If additional downside follows then a likely target would be the 2.382 extension of wave 'a' which also coincides more closely with the 50% retrace of the wave up. The price level is exactly 700 (BTC-e) and should this occur then the count would change to an impulse to the downside with no 'a', 'b' and 'c' waves but a single wave 'a' (of 5 subwaves) to 700.

http://ubuntuone.com/2woFAtyYYAoZQX4h7qPdNS

EA = Expert Advisor. Robot...

Just opened my Bitcoin charts. I see we have closed the "GAP"
Time to go LONG again.???
I would advise everyone to run an AVA Meta trader MT4 Chart alongside your trading chart, just to see the weekend gaps. As with all forex pairs, the weekend gaps are nearly always filled.
If that was an ABC retracement it's time go Long. Be aware it may still turn out to be a 5 wave retrace. If so, One wave to come.?????

Hey. Take a look at these three 1H charts. All taken at the same time. As in 2 mins ago. AVa MT4 AVA Trader & Btc-e Mt4. I think the brokers are having a field day with Bitcoin.

Pondering the turn of events...

http://ubuntuone.com/1oQy1qNysnHCGdBIP0Myu2

Technical correction is one thing but sustained downside action is another. We know it's not the FBeye selling ill-begotten loot and there's not a whiff of bad news in the air. In fact, things have never been better for Bitcoin. So what can be the cause of a halt to the upside exhuberance and a return to levels of a few weeks back?

Perhaps there are subconscious forces at work in the market's mass psychology? Perhaps the news does not cause the market's movement but lags it in most cases - in which case we should soon start to see some articles explaining the present hubris - just as price makes headway to new highs!

Thanks for explaining I, Robot

Now that gap business you show there is very damn-well interesting. I mean look at it: perfectly and hermetically sealed since close on Friday! This is amazing... who would have thought ? and i would never have checked for such... Unfortunately my ol' little phone app doesn't accept add-ons and I'm on Linux OS so getting MT4 to run is possible but a major draw on scarce laptop resources. I will bear in mind the gap every Monday and Tueday, though.

As you say, KO, this may only be the first wave of 3. If it is we should get a 50% retrace and then another equivalent length wave to the downside. I must say that I am puzzled by the sudden gloom in the market because things are looking very good for Bitcoin and we are at the gateway steps of a spectacular rise... maybe that's exactly it: the gravity of the task ahead is daunting the mountaineers!

i think this was a leading diagonal but with a weird extended wave 5
wave 1 should be the longest wave and 5 shortest. i don't think any rules broken if wave 5 extended

emptymind,

you said it - wave 5 must be the shortest for it to qualify as a leading diag, so we have to look to other explanations:

consider for a moment waves 1 and 2 as you have them. Relabel 3 as A and 4 as B and then 5 becomes C and we have a completed wave 3 at the top

The most recent retracement can be labeled 4 - it does not yet intrude on the price territory of wave 1 - and we have wave 5 yet to come... extended and reaching into the clouds! There is a wave phenomenon (not covered in the EWP textbook) but visible in the EurUsd, in the USD index and in Silver and Gold whereby they do not form impulses above sub-minuette degree but "diagonals" - advancing waves whereby each of 12345 has three subwaves a, b and c exactly like a triangle but with the appearance of an impulse. However, if you look closely you'll notice that the subwave (i) in each of 12345 is a three wave structure and not five wave... I think this is the case with Bitcoin which is why we're being surprised by additional waves everytime. What do you think?

An alternative count is (instead of 12345 as you have them) perhaps abcde - a triangle - now to be followed by 5 waves down to near 250. Improbable, yes, but not implausible.

I cannot say for certain what the count is at present but given the overwhelming positive prospects for Bitcoin and the amount of time spent in the starting blocks - I'm putting my money on a massive run to the upside. It would be wise to wait for confirmation, since we may be in a B wave up at present before another wave C down, but if BTC clears 1000 in the coming days or hours it's next target is 1500 and then surely 2000? What do you think?

Good morning,


Can I ask if the PA actually matches the red "d" and then "e" that you mentioned yesterday ?
If so, is this ABCDE retracement similar to the one on LTCusd chart of early december ?
Then both could make sens as a wave 4...
But i don't know...

Morning. It does seem like iii and iv can be relabeled a and b. Then we have c down at the bottom and currently in d with a final e to the downside. That would a possible count. I'm veering away from the count possibilities - thinking about how we might determine with some certainty if we have more downside coming or if it's safe right now to bet big on the upside. I don't know and feel apprehensive as a bird that must fly for the first time!

At this stage I'm just watching because this price action is not clear in its intention. Where is KiwiOz with his magic trendlines when we need him? I'm just going to sit out and wait for my indicators to line up across TFs or for PA to go above $1000 on MtGox, 5500 BTC China and 900 on BTC-e - whichever come first

lady_luck, PA dropped like a stone as soon as i closed my eyes to sleep. I woke up this morning with my eyes popping out my head and immediately had to start disaster recovery measures before I was even awake or had a chance for coffee. I feel like i'm the lead actor in my own comedy of errors trading Bitcoin! Strange experience...

edit: one thing I know for sure: if PA will give us just one triangle somewhere we will be able to figure out where the hell we are in this count... as it is I am lost and you guys can basically make profits by just doing exactly the opposite of what I call seriously - i don't think I've gotten any call right since late November.

edit2: and LTCUSD should go above $25 to indicate it is resuming it's former path right?

RSI headroom

I notice that PA from current levels upward to the top have no contention points in the RSI indicator. RSI has already dealt with a reverse divergence on the last remaining peak (inside the yellow circles) and has free movement as represented by the dark blue rectangles on the right... there should be no resistance to a rapid advance through that chart territory.

http://ubuntuone.com/1e47tdflRQyqnQ78mXdBM0

Well, you are not the only one. December and the beginning of 2014 have been very frustrating on my side. I haven't lost neither usd nor btc, but I missed out everywhere...
This lack of clear impulse or triangle, make it very hard to count waves. As you said, their is no base to restart with...

Also I had a thought toward news vs PA.
Where their is definitely a pattern of relation. Btc is bought and sold for more reason than usual stocks/commodities : long term investment, short term transaction, trading opportunity... No need to say, we all know. That's why we will always have stronger swing. Behind every transaction their is multiple will.
If i'm selling a lamborgini for btc instead of usd, it's not to cash out at market price, but because hopefully next my one sale would be worth the same as If I sold ten cars... On the other hand someone selling illicit good on the blackmarket with btc has to cash out their btc instantly to resupply. Which might then force the lamborgini dealer to cash out earlier than expected and buy back at lower prices.
That's how I see, holder turning into trader, bear in bull and so on.
Giving us a great opportunity to profit on both side and (usually) clear trading pattern. That's why EW are usually so good with Btc, money-wise our Car dealer and blackmarket seller have both diverging need, one want 20% extra profit and the second cannot afford 20% loss. So which way will it go ?

Because of our two dealers and all the traders in between trying to profit from their antagonism, news follows :
http://i.imgur.com/POc4e1q.png

And it all make sens, when the domino are line up to go down, of course some suit will say "watch out", when it recovers then some other institution would think "sure it seems stronger, let's give it a shot", and when it reach a thousand some paypal type of group thinking "hmmm, let's put some fees on that thing and process it", we hit rock bottom and exchange run out of liquidity volume decrease so the people behind "let's make some fake trade to attract more ducks so we can pay back the other duck".
But really, that just follow the result of the two guys that been looking at their 20% the whole time.

I don't know if that makes sens, but to me it does, it's similar as History of Human conflicts.
Does a war starts because the domino were put in line for a decade, or because of a detail event. Someone get shot dead in Sarajevo and a war start, or the war was going to starts so poor Franz get shot ? Or the opposite, the cold war, bad news after bad news, but the domino never were in line because of this whole nuclear holocaust thing.

So back to btc, news are great, they do help to identify at what stage we are, but their are just an other indicator that I like using, but it's not necessary for PA.

Sorry for the rant

So we are all a little uncertain. Understandable. So here is an uncertain chart..
Down target possible...Up target probable............
Ive already gone Long & I'm off to bed.

Similar perspective...
http://i.imgur.com/D3gIZsC.png
Also, may be some ascending triangle on stamp, btce, btcchina.

yes i understand the original wave 4 hasn't been invalidated yet but it was too deep for a wave 4 correction. it just looks wrong plus i don't like it when wave 4 gets out of the channel....
i found a mini fractal version of the whole larger pattern. if we were alert we could have predicted how the bigger pattern will behave
i think someone should research how fractals work and write a book about it. no need counting waves... just look for patterns



the reason why wave 5 isn't short because it's extended... it's like when wave wave 5 extends in a normal impulse wave. it is larger than wave 3. i think this makes sense, no?

Hello Emptymind,

Yeah, I had the same observation about fractals, i see exactly what you mean.
So if in order i were to label (1) and (3) the two pink domes after 2 and before 3, then since your 4 doesn't overlap (1) we could assume that now, if similar wave, it shouldn't overlap and touch the top of the territory of 1, which was 720 on btce.
So that would mean that the retracement is over ?