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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #781
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:40am Dec 23, 2013 12:40am
Looking at 5M RSI is at the 30 line and bounce up but it keeps droping, so as a lagging indicator is could keep going further down to get force,if there is any news around that will be the trigger, Frankfurt open or London open may bring some action, If I have to guess is up today
The Chonchy
  • #782
  • Dec 23, 2013 2:40am Dec 23, 2013 2:40am
The sideways action very much resembles a triangle - as it should in this 4th wave position. However, which triangle? The red count or the black count? Or something else?

Assuming the black count, we have a downside target of $373 for wave 5. If something else is unfolding, we'll have to wait and see.

edit: a price label has obstructed the wave 'a' label above the light blue rectangle..

http://ubuntuone.com/3fqoSbTiPqnYj5WV2F2dQ3
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #783
  • Edited 4:10am Dec 23, 2013 3:40am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting venzen
The sideways action very much resembles a triangle - as it should in this 4th wave position. However, which triangle? The red count or the black count? Or something else? Assuming the black count, we have a downside target of $373 for wave 5. If something else is unfolding, we'll have to wait and see. edit: a price label has obstructed the wave 'a' label above the light blue rectangle.. {image}
I'd personally prefer the black count too, but the red seems more plausible at this moment, hourly sma 200 wasn't breached at "a" and it's now getting too close to the PA.
The 4 hour RSI has been narrowing down, and it has already almost fully bounced up, the crossing seems almost "imminent" there.
And despite the ridiculously low selling volume, the triangle seems to be closing up.

Also keeping in mind, the coming christmas holiday, it might be enough to push the sell-off while incertitude is striking.

I'm comparing two different wave so I'm not expecting the same behavior, and yet it's an empirical observation (the white line are for the hourly sma200):
http://i.imgur.com/nrq9yMi.png
  • #784
  • Dec 23, 2013 5:00am Dec 23, 2013 5:00am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I'd personally prefer the black count too, but the red seems more plausible at this moment, hourly sma 200 wasn't breached at "a" and it's now getting too close to the PA. The 4 hour RSI has been narrowing down, and it has already almost fully bounced up, the crossing seems almost "imminent" there. And despite the ridiculously low selling volume, the triangle seems to be closing up. Also keeping in mind, the coming christmas holiday, it might be enough to push the sell-off while incertitude is striking. I'm comparing two different wave so...

yes, the black count looks more likely because the red 'e' wave doesn't have 3 subwaves and it should have reversed strongly by now...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #785
  • Dec 23, 2013 6:36am Dec 23, 2013 6:36am
Bitcoin payments/receipts can now happen offline:

Revolutionary Bitcoin Coupon Service Launches
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...73+ONE20131223

A step in the right direction. Of course - eventually - the public ledger needs to be informed online.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #786
  • Dec 23, 2013 11:13am Dec 23, 2013 11:13am
Quoting venzen
The sideways action very much resembles a triangle - as it should in this 4th wave position. However, which triangle? The red count or the black count? Or something else? Assuming the black count, we have a downside target of $373 for wave 5. If something else is unfolding, we'll have to wait and see. edit: a price label has obstructed the wave 'a' label above the light blue rectangle.. {image}

nice charts guys and nice analysis, happy holidays.......
The Chonchy
  • #787
  • Dec 23, 2013 2:50pm Dec 23, 2013 2:50pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=463696
The Chonchy
  • #788
  • Dec 23, 2013 2:52pm Dec 23, 2013 2:52pm
http://nypost.com/2013/12/23/governm...k-road-pirate/
The Chonchy
  • #789
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:42pm Dec 23, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting chonchy
http://nypost.com/2013/12/23/governm...k-road-pirate/
and he wants them back!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #790
  • Dec 23, 2013 8:10pm Dec 23, 2013 8:10pm
an article that shows up the irrational disdain of competing currencies as well as pointing out some very real value of cryptocurrencies:

On Paul Krugman's Irrational Attack On Bitcoin
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...attack-bitcoin

Quoting <i>Michael Krieger</i>
No clear use? Really, Krugman? There is nothing useful about essentially costless transfers of value on a peer-to-peer basis? There is no value to monetary transfers that eliminate expensive and parasitic middlemen? There is no value to using a public key as a way to ask for payment, thus reducing enormous security concerns caused by providing all your private information to hundreds of merchants using credit cards? No value to being able to send millions of dollars across the globe in minutes rather than days? No value to free market currencies competing with state currencies? No value to economic freedom?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #791
  • Dec 23, 2013 9:29pm Dec 23, 2013 9:29pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} and he wants them back!
yeah like if 33 millions will buy the feds ah......
The Chonchy
  • #792
  • Dec 23, 2013 10:39pm Dec 23, 2013 10:39pm
found another interesting article just now that indicates the PBoC Bitcoin ban may have it's roots in the country's banking sector liquidity crunch:


Chinese Bitcoin Ban Driven by Chinese Banking Crisis ?
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2013/...g-cash-crunch/

specifically:

Quoting MayorLar
According to the Financial Times (FT) the Chinese banking system is in crisis which could explain the Bitcoin ban in China. Chinese citizens seem to be running away from their own banking system in droves and their Government is closing the escape paths — including Bitcoin. During the run up of bitcoin in November you could watch the CNY currency leaking from China on sites like www.fiatleak.org and there was a breathtaking amount of Chinese currency leaking into BTC.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #793
  • Edited Dec 24, 2013 2:24am Dec 23, 2013 11:42pm | Edited Dec 24, 2013 2:24am
What's with the Bitcoin spreads.?? Yesterday they ranged from 145 pips to 160 pips. at the moment they are 60 pips. ?????????????

2.1/2 hrs later. Back to 120 pip spread.????
Money Makes Money
  • #794
  • Dec 24, 2013 12:32am Dec 24, 2013 12:32am
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...-stages-chart/

Bitcoin May Be Following This Classic Bubble Stages Chart
  • #795
  • Dec 24, 2013 5:48am Dec 24, 2013 5:48am
Quoting KiwiOz
What's with the Bitcoin spreads.?? Yesterday they ranged from 145 pips to 160 pips. at the moment they are 60 pips. ????????????? 2.1/2 hrs later. Back to 120 pip spread.????

hi KO,

it's a strange thing: I've watched the MtGox orderbook before where a batch of large orders gets triggered (say to the downside) the buy price will just remain where it is and the sell price would run to upside until they're about $50 or $80 apart! MtGox seems to apply spread based on the orderbook and not market orders - it's kinda clunky if you ask me.

Which broker do you use? It may be that the MtGox spread is passed on to other exchanges as is...

My solution to this is to not place stop/limit orders (since we don't know what might get triggered by the crazy spread) and to only open market orders when I have checked the spread - usually outside of frenzy-time!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #796
  • Dec 24, 2013 5:57am Dec 24, 2013 5:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi KO, it's a strange thing: I've watched the MtGox orderbook before where a batch of large orders gets triggered (say to the downside) the buy price will just remain where it is and the sell price would run to upside until they're about $50 or $80 apart! MtGox seems to apply spread based on the orderbook and not market orders - it's kinda clunky if you ask me. Which broker do you use? It may be that the MtGox spread is passed on to other exchanges as is... My solution to this is to not place stop/limit orders (since we don't know what might...
Yes you certainly have to check before you hit the buy button. Ranging 768,680,684 / 695 at present. Broker is AVA.
Money Makes Money
  • #797
  • Edited 8:45am Dec 24, 2013 5:58am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting infinitus
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...-stages-chart/ Bitcoin May Be Following This Classic Bubble Stages Chart

hi infinitus,

It definitely is going to "bubble" (as much as EW makes allowance for wave 5 extremes) and then "pop" (62% retracement) in the coming year. There is money to be made to the upside and down - even down from current levels - but the thing is you have to be agile - because this instrument can do $300 in an hour or two.

However, these guys who are crying wolf over "tulip mania" and "it's in a bubble" (e.g. Jesse Colombo, Krugman, Shiff, etc) don't see the bigger picture: they're blinded by their own paradigm. Cryptocurrency is not a reversible discovery and now that Wall Street and Silicon Valley have turned their fixation on Bitcoin - and with the tacit support of the US govt (who seem to want to lead the cryptocurrency race) - they're going to squeeze it for everything it's worth.

edit: thing with calling a bubble is that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy - when price goes down then it's a confirmation of the "bubble" popping and when price goes up, it's like: "what did i tell you... it's going up in a bubble". Seeing that Bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) won't cease to exist and is in limited supply we know as Elliotticians that every correction is only a preface to a larger bullmarket to follow. This is the nature of commodity. Bitcoin isn't a stock or an index or an ETF. It's a functional, highly secure value store that is portable, outside of the banking cartel and also free of their fees and restrictions. When the shit hits the fan like it did in Cyprus, fiat flows into Bitcoin at a rocking pace. IMO, Cyprus was only the beginning the central bank driven crisis in the West. Yet, even without any crisis, Bitcoin has during the last few months gained popular media attention and is now being discussed as a viable trade instrument. So it has yet to see the mainstream participation we witness in waves 3 and 5. Have a look at the chart - it takes some time to realize what it implies in light of the fact that commodities extend their 5th wave.

All-time Gold & all-time BTC
http://ubuntuone.com/7417nULlNMTFc0eklgu0fs
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #798
  • Dec 24, 2013 7:59am Dec 24, 2013 7:59am
Quoting venzen
found another interesting article just now that indicates the PBoC Bitcoin ban may have it's roots in the country's banking sector liquidity crunch: Chinese Bitcoin Ban Driven by Chinese Banking Crisis ? http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2013/...g-cash-crunch/ specifically: {quote}
"To be clear, Bitcoin is not the cause of the current currency crisis, but it was one way that the average Chines Citizen could protect themselves against a major devaluation or a currency implosion of the CNY. After all it is easier to slip out of the country with a memory stick than a bag of gold or cash. But the banking ban is a sure sign of how seriously the POC is taking the banking cash crunch."

.........to me this is very important, you can't scape with a bag of gold but yes with a memory stick, so if they close the internet or restrict it, there it goes my money? I will be strictly trading from now on and with very little, no BTC accumulation, who will I pay BTC with, if this people decide to close the internet?
The Chonchy
  • #799
  • Dec 24, 2013 8:15am Dec 24, 2013 8:15am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} "To be clear, Bitcoin is not the cause of the current currency crisis, but it was one way that the average Chines Citizen could protect themselves against a major devaluation or a currency implosion of the CNY. After all it is easier to slip out of the country with a memory stick than a bag of gold or cash. But the banking ban is a sure sign of how seriously the POC is taking the banking cash crunch." .........to me this is very important, you can't scape with a bag of gold but yes with a memory stick, so if they close the internet or restrict...

hi chonchy,

yeah, it's worth thinking about. I wonder if the internet can be "closed" (as in totally shut down)? Recently this happened in my country when the people shutdown a substation providing the country's internet backbone with power. 3G (via mobile phone) uses a different route to the internet so that still worked, but i had to face some uncertain thoughts and potential scenarios. If a region has no internet then Bitcoin transactions cannot happen...

Flipside of the coin is: if there is no internet, you cannot access your trading platform either! So it's double jeopardy - without the internet - whether by human or exogenous cause - everything freezes and cash is king!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #800
  • Dec 24, 2013 10:01am Dec 24, 2013 10:01am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi infinitus, It definitely is going to "bubble" (as much as EW makes allowance for wave 5 extremes) and then "pop" (62% retracement) in the coming year. There is money to be made to the upside and down - even down from current levels - but the thing is you have to be agile - because this instrument can do $300 in an hour or two. However, these guys who are crying wolf over "tulip mania" and "it's in a bubble" (e.g. Jesse Colombo, Krugman, Shiff, etc) don't see the bigger picture: they're blinded by their own paradigm. Cryptocurrency is...

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...-Not-Much.aspx
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