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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #761
  • Edited Dec 22, 2013 1:41am Dec 21, 2013 8:45pm | Edited Dec 22, 2013 1:41am
Quoting venzen
{quote} All i can say is "WoW". Tradingview is a great charting app site. Wish I had known about it earlier. Thank you lady_luck. You're going to see more charts from me from now on - that's for sure! Relieved to see the decline is back in progress... I had over-sized my short position and went floating in the sea... Now we have to see what we get - a zigzag down (and more triangle)? or an impulse that strikes down for the bottom?
Your welcome, can't wait for your charts

If the breaking point of the ED was c and the start point of 5 then wave i and ii of 5 are almost complete now. And if the volume stay that low, we are in an impulse and wave 5 shouldn't be more than 1.61 x wave 1.
But the zigzag are triangle is still valid at this time.

edit : first hypothesis seem invalid, let's welcome the zigzag and triangle Again, good call Venzen
  • #762
  • Dec 22, 2013 1:33pm Dec 22, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} jejeje! Un hombre con sangre Cubana! Si, verdad, te gusta el boxeo! I like the progression in the charts you posted and MACD divergence is there on every turn, eh? What concerns me is that there was not any indicator divergence above M5 on the last low... perhaps we will get the decisive divergence on the next LL (lower low).
......Hello traders,
Venzen I don't see a set up here, I need for price to show his hand first, is in the middle of this channel now.......

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and the daily show indecision in this daily chart, I'm looking for RSI to reach point ONE, hopefully when RSI reach point ONE point two will be the trigger, by that time price should be at the bottom of the channel and a bounce up in is order, that is my trade, my plan, so waiting patiently for that, meanwhile I spec all MACD to sync for the upside and on this daily at least to reach the 0 line, by then if all other MACD's are under the 0 line, then maybe is a sync in all charts and it will take off north wish is my plan, from around 373 or some like that, will buy at 400 some, just in case there is the bounce and lose the train but only a 1/3 of the position, then at 373 another 1/3 and if it goes to 250 will go all in like a Texas Holden......hope it helps is my two cents, good luck and don't spend more than you can chew, like some of my friends here.......
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The Chonchy
  • #763
  • Dec 22, 2013 1:46pm Dec 22, 2013 1:46pm
......If we miss the train on RSI point two, then I will have to wait for another bounce of the upper trend line and go short but in the middle here is just to give away a stop, maybe scalp on the lower time frames could be done, but I'm out, afraid, is like the market is waiting for some and I don't know what it is, maybe a funnymentalist could tell us but I'm out of clues at this point........sorry hope all goes well for all.........
The Chonchy
  • #764
  • Dec 22, 2013 1:49pm Dec 22, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Your welcome, can't wait for your charts If the breaking point of the ED was c and the start point of 5 then wave i and ii of 5 are almost complete now. And if the volume stay that low, we are in an impulse and wave 5 shouldn't be more than 1.61 x wave 1. But the zigzag are triangle is still valid at this time. edit : first hypothesis seem invalid, let's welcome the zigzag and triangle Again, good call Venzen
Nice analysis Lady_luck, hope all goes well for you........
The Chonchy
  • #765
  • Dec 22, 2013 1:53pm Dec 22, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} jejeje! Un hombre con sangre Cubana! Si, verdad, te gusta el boxeo! I like the progression in the charts you posted and MACD divergence is there on every turn, eh? What concerns me is that there was not any indicator divergence above M5 on the last low... perhaps we will get the decisive divergence on the next LL (lower low).
.......Agree there is no show of divergence in this first hit of the lower trend line, that is why RSI is not oversold or under the 30 line, and it must go down again lower than the 0 line, another lower low, to show divergence there perhaps, but to me this is a bull flag in the making.....good luck to all......

........sorry venzen, don't like boxing, don't like people hitting each other, don't like dogs or cock fights, don't like gladiators, or ultimate fighting championship, love a show of force when you revive a person from a heart attack by supplying cardiac massage and rescue a person from drowning or rescue a person from a fire, defend a lady from a thief, restrict our government from killing innocent people for oil and things like that, that for me is a good show of force, like my old friend Dr. Ron Paul, that I think is a good match with the federal reserve, but boxing?........nahhhhhh
The Chonchy
  • #766
  • Dec 22, 2013 8:47pm Dec 22, 2013 8:47pm
G'Day Guy's n Gal's. Mind if I join the conversation & add My trading style to the mix.??
Bitcoin is still in it's infancy & so has very little data to refer to so anything above the Daily chart appears useless.
On the 4H chart I have good divergence with a target around 883. If it turns & bites me on the A$$ I will reverse with the target at around 378.
Looking at the Daily & 4H charts I get the feeling this has bottomed out.?? I guess a lot depends on whether Bitcoin is a fizzer or not. Then again trading Paper Gold is an ongoing thing & it doesn't even "exist" Not physically. gunna trade this cautiously for now. Not sure how my style will go with this pair.??
Will post a chart or 3 with my Bitcoin thoughts.
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Money Makes Money
  • #767
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:06pm Dec 22, 2013 10:06pm
Quoting KiwiOz
G'Day Guy's n Gal's. Mind if I join the conversation & add My trading style to the mix.?? Bitcoin is still in it's infancy & so has very little data to refer to so anything above the Daily chart appears useless. On the 4H chart I have good divergence with a target around 883. If it turns & bites me on the A$$ I will reverse with the target at around 378. Looking at the Daily & 4H charts I get the feeling this has bottomed out.?? I guess a lot depends on whether Bitcoin is a fizzer or not. Then again trading Paper Gold is an ongoing thing & it doesn't...

Wellcome KiwiOz, great charts, thanks a lot...........
The Chonchy
  • #768
  • Edited 10:53pm Dec 22, 2013 10:18pm | Edited 10:53pm
Good morning everyone,
Welcome here kiwioz
Good analysis Chonchy, after what you guys just said and the developments over the week-end I tried to review a bit my EW.
This is on a log scale, so it show more clearly that the ratio are ok.
From looking at it from various degree, here are bits of information i got out of the chart :
-wave 5 are not truncated anymore
-wave c is an ED in 50% of the cases
-wave 4 tend to equal wave 2 in time
-wave 3 are extended 3 times out of 4
-wave a is longer than c in 50% of the cases
-we are heading toward completing A of (II) giving a better proportion in time between (I) and (II)
-wave A is a motive wave
-abc are zigzag
-b tend to correct between 30-45%

only thing i don't like is "ii of 1"

I hope there is something useful to get-out of that

http://i.imgur.com/RL0a5LS.png
  • #769
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:43pm Dec 22, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting KiwiOz
G'Day Guy's n Gal's. Mind if I join the conversation & add My trading style to the mix.?? Bitcoin is still in it's infancy & so has very little data to refer to so anything above the Daily chart appears useless. On the 4H chart I have good divergence with a target around 883. If it turns & bites me on the A$$ I will reverse with the target at around 378. Looking at the Daily & 4H charts I get the feeling this has bottomed out.?? I guess a lot depends on whether Bitcoin is a fizzer or not. Then again trading Paper Gold is an ongoing thing & it doesn't...

Greetings KiwiOz and welcome!

Your analysis will be a great addition here and I believe TDM (DeMark Method) should work very well with the Bitcoin chart. In my opinion the chart exhibits textbook technical adherence - apply any traditional indicator (e.g. MA, RSI or Bolllinger Bands) and see how PA respects it almost without fail!

You mention targets 883 and 378 - I think we might see both of those - and in close succession! Which one will be first is the critical question. I favour a downside bias first since altho' there's a lot of exhuberance surrounding Bitcoin, it appears the market is waiting for a good low to print in order for big players to stock up and start the inevitable bull-run to new alltime highs.

I think Bitcoin will go far - but not all the way - it's status as "the first cryptocurrency" must mean there are some minor (but critical) design flaws and it's pervasiveness may mean those flaws are irretractible. A new, improved "Bitcoin2.0" will no-doubt be conceived once we reach the c-currency maturity plateaux. Yet, for now, it's a moon rocket on the launchpad! (as is Gold IMO)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #770
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:47pm Dec 22, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning everyone, Welcome here kiwioz Good analysis Chonchy, after what you guys just said and the developments over the week-end I tried to review a bit my EW. This is on a log scale, so it show more clearly that the ratio are ok. From looking at it from various degree, here are bits of information i got out of the chart : -wave 5 are not truncated anymore -wave c is an ED in 50% of the cases -wave 4 tend to equal wave 2 in time -wave 3 are extended 3 times out of 4 -wave a is longer than c in 50% of the cases -we are heading toward completing...

lady_luck,

Thank you for the chart and explanation! one question - is the end of wave ii beyond the start of wave i ?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #771
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:59pm Dec 22, 2013 10:59pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} Wellcome KiwiOz, great charts, thanks a lot...........

hi chonchy! Hope you are well.

@KiwiOz has an amazingly accurate method - we shared a lot of analysis at @XTrade's XAU thread and I have noticed that KiwiOz's target calls are accurate 90% of the time! So we're lucky to have an analyst with good understanding of DeMark Method (TDM) onboard!

I was reading your posts and like your multi-TF analysis. I agree that we need to see RSI/MACD divergence on a new low for trend change to be confirmed. I think most of the newly arrived big money players (and there is a lot more institutional interest in the past few months, i am sure) - they're all waiting for a decisive low to hit the BUY button. Like you, I am expecting new lows followed by a spectacular blast up... my one concern is that on the previous low (July I think) I was waiting for RSI/MACD divergence which never arrived and I failed to buy at $60, then $120, then $250... so I don't want that to happen again: If the upper TL (of the decline from $1,200) is broken I will start considering the possibility that the bottom is already behind us.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #772
  • Dec 22, 2013 11:00pm Dec 22, 2013 11:00pm
Found this article this morning:

Hong Kong mining installation... if you do something, might as well do it properly!

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/technol...ine/index.html
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #773
  • Dec 22, 2013 11:07pm Dec 22, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} lady_luck, Thank you for the chart and explanation! one question - is the end of wave ii beyond the start of wave i ?
It's slightly under on every BTC/USD charts, way under in BTC/CNY. It doesn't break the rule, but close to it. To be honest this myself, this count look much better on the chinese chart but I couldn't get a clear one.
  • #774
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:00am Dec 23, 2013 12:00am
Quoting venzen
Found this article this morning: Hong Kong mining installation... if you do something, might as well do it properly! http://money.cnn.com/gallery/technol...ine/index.html
wow nice......
The Chonchy
  • #775
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:05am Dec 23, 2013 12:05am
..........it could go eather way, if you ask me is down to the red ema 100 and up again.....

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The Chonchy
  • #776
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:08am Dec 23, 2013 12:08am
........on the daily 23.6 % and magenta upper trend line, from there if it breaks, wait for the retest of the magenta line and go long, if it bounces, short with a tite stop.....

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The Chonchy
  • #777
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:12am Dec 23, 2013 12:12am
........I will wait for a good set up, lower trend line bounce or upper trend line break.........for the down side 551 needs to be broken, upside no stopping to the magenta line, long with a tite stop could be a good risk reward.......but waiting have to be the best bet here, good luck, careful it could be a big one.........

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The Chonchy
  • #778
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:15am Dec 23, 2013 12:15am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi chonchy! Hope you are well. @KiwiOz has an amazingly accurate method - we shared a lot of analysis at @XTrade's XAU thread and I have noticed that KiwiOz's target calls are accurate 90% of the time! So we're lucky to have an analyst with good understanding of DeMark Method (TDM) onboard! I was reading your posts and like your multi-TF analysis. I agree that we need to see RSI/MACD divergence on a new low for trend change to be confirmed. I think most of the newly arrived big money players (and there is a lot more institutional interest...

thankyou sir. the best for you and your family this holidays.....I will be looking forward for his charts then, thanks.......
The Chonchy
  • #779
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:26am Dec 23, 2013 12:26am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi chonchy! Hope you are well. @KiwiOz has an amazingly accurate method - we shared a lot of analysis at @XTrade's XAU thread and I have noticed that KiwiOz's target calls are accurate 90% of the time! So we're lucky to have an analyst with good understanding of DeMark Method (TDM) onboard! I was reading your posts and like your multi-TF analysis. I agree that we need to see RSI/MACD divergence on a new low for trend change to be confirmed. I think most of the newly arrived big money players (and there is a lot more institutional interest...
this is what I was told by a good friend of mine, the dove_alliance, very good trader with moving averages and MACD.......

3 charts must sync for price to break out in one way or the other, no sync no break........

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The Chonchy
  • #780
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:36am Dec 23, 2013 12:36am
........It could go either way I will wait, wait for the bounce of the red and choco ema's on the one hour or the break of that support...
The Chonchy
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