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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #601
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:57pm Dec 13, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Norway cracking down on Bitcoin http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...st-nation.html

Hey BWR, long time no see you, hope all well on your part of the woods.........

yep a lot of bankers want to stop it but I think is too late now, it may go down because the people panic with all this news but then what, imagine that gold goes to 35 dollars an ounce, what would you do....... I know what I would do, buy a whole bunch of it....lol......

I think with all your respect BTC is going to the........

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The Chonchy
  • #602
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:59pm Dec 13, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting venzen
The European Banking Authority will on Friday issue a statement warning of the risk of "violent fluctuations in electronic currencies" value, the danger of "digital wallets" being hacked, and of the lack of legal protections for users. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101270093
yeah they want to regulated so they can make money too, another form of feudalism, but the BTC world have news for them, catch me if you can, we are going to the ......


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The Chonchy
  • #603
  • Edited 2:49pm Dec 13, 2013 2:15pm | Edited 2:49pm
wave 3 of C in progress

the first wave looks like a leading diagonal.. look for a wave 2 bounce then a big crash.....

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i have a target of 647 for wave 3 minimum... that is 1.618 times wave one which is typical for a wave 3, but a more realistic target is 435 which is 2.618 times wave one. C waves are usually very destructive and crashy

watch wave 3 of 3... should drop like a rock and have gap downs
  • #604
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:16pm Dec 13, 2013 6:16pm
Buy Bitcoin. Under $1000, Bitcoin is the future, hype, China, green daily candle.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #605
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:21am Dec 14, 2013 7:21am
Quoting emptymind
wave 3 of C in progress the first wave looks like a leading diagonal.. look for a wave 2 bounce then a big crash..... {image} i have a target of 647 for wave 3 minimum... that is 1.618 times wave one which is typical for a wave 3, but a more realistic target is 435 which is 2.618 times wave one. C waves are usually very destructive and crashy watch wave 3 of 3... should drop like a rock and have gap downs

great EW analysis!

that 3rd wave is just setting in as i write and the sell orders are piling up below with not a buy order in sight until above 890! PA at 884 now and there is plenty of RSI space to the downside at M5 and larger TFs. As you also say, I reckon the damage is going to be worst between here and about 700

I expect plenty of buyers will come in at $50 increments $850, $800, $750, etc but i reckon it's best to just let this drop do it's thing and then wait for confirmation of a trend change to start buying. Shorting now (for those who can) is going to be good.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #606
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:29am Dec 14, 2013 7:29am
Quoting zusch
Buy Bitcoin. Under $1000, Bitcoin is the future, hype, China, green daily candle.

hi zusch,

careful to buy now - except if your analysis gives you strong buy signals - however IMO there is plenty of downside to come: The hype is on but there is a lot of uncertainty being sown about "mania", "bubble" and "regulation" so some new participants (past few months) may be nervous AND there may also be a general sentiment that lower is good to buy in big at low prices. I am certainly selling all the way down!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #607
  • Edited 3:59pm Dec 14, 2013 9:19am | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi zusch, careful to buy now - except if your analysis gives you strong buy signals - however IMO there is plenty of downside to come: The hype is on but there is a lot of uncertainty being sown about "mania", "bubble" and "regulation" so some new participants (past few months) may be nervous AND there may also be a general sentiment that lower is good to buy in big at low prices. I am certainly selling all the way down!
.......Concur, thanks emptymind for the chart, concur on all things, especially that on the way down are crashy and destructive.........I'm also looking to short this thing from up here......purple trend line revisit. perhaps, but blue ema 5 have a stop on it, good resistance may establish there and it could range some more, or not and dump like a rock from here as you guys say, good luck to all.......

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The Chonchy
  • #608
  • Edited 5:17pm Dec 14, 2013 4:57pm | Edited 5:17pm
i feel market want to drop big so is building some lower degree waves 1 2 1 2 for wave 3 to extend....

venzen, what is M5 and TF. i'm not familiar with those terms
chonchy, suspense is killing me!
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  • #609
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:02pm Dec 14, 2013 10:02pm
Quoting emptymind
i feel market want to drop big so is building some lower degree waves 1 2 1 2 for wave 3 to extend.... venzen, what is M5 and TF. i'm not familiar with those terms chonchy, suspense is killing me! {image}

hi em,

some abbreviations used a lot on FF:

M5 = 5 minute chart, H1 = 1 hour, D1, etc
TF = timeframe
PA = price action
RR = Risk/Reward
MM = Money Management

- hope that helps - if you don't ask you won't know

Yes, as you say: 1-2 i-ii ... should be a strong selloff. What's interesting is that the orderbook has equal amounts of bid and sell orders - but of course PA is going to move on direct market orders and not the orderbook... The current market activity should probably be mainly from Asian participants, with Europe and the US joining the selloff during the course of Sunday. $850 (MtGox) right now and $825 (btc-e)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #610
  • Dec 15, 2013 6:31am Dec 15, 2013 6:31am
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #611
  • Dec 15, 2013 7:02am Dec 15, 2013 7:02am
hello everyone, I if my comments about Bitcoin. The first: Bitcoin was created with a limit of 21 million, over time, gradually digging the Bitcoin will be difficult. The purpose of the limit is: to increase the value to 2030 (I do not remember exactly). You should remember that this idea it was released in 2008. It is new, the idea has not been copied, it is almost exclusively. When the model was popular internet currency and widespread replication, the value will go down.

If it is exclusive to the 2030 model, which means Bitcoin value continued to increase until 2030. So now I buy Bitcoin and keep them up to 2030 and with the current growth rates, may 2030 I will become a billionaire or millionaire. it's too easy, you just buy and hold it until 2030. I doubt it, it's too easy.

* note: this is my opinion, I'm very happy to hear everyone's answers. sorry my english is not good.
thank you!
Trading in the zone
  • #612
  • Edited 9:23am Dec 15, 2013 7:26am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting hao
hello everyone, I if my comments about Bitcoin. The first: Bitcoin was created with a limit of 21 million, over time, gradually digging the Bitcoin will be difficult. The purpose of the limit is: to increase the value to 2030 (I do not remember exactly). You should remember that this idea it was released in 2008. It is new, the idea has not been copied, it is almost exclusively. When the model was popular internet currency and widespread replication, the value will go down. If it is exclusive to the 2030 model, which means Bitcoin value continued...

hi hao,

Welcome and thanks for your post - nevermind your English - I understand everything you say!

Yes, Bitcoin has a history of more than 5 years and it will be with us for many more, hopefully. It depends on people and circumstances which we cannot predict, so let's see. Here's a great infographic:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...istory-bitcoin

You say "it's too easy" - which makes me smile, because it reminds me of the saying: "If it seems too good to be true - it probably is!". The date you are thinking of is not 2030 but 2140... so that's a long time to hold on to your crypto-coins But don't worry, you will see a very strong growth in Bitcoin in the coming months. Some people think Bitcoin will achieve a very high price and then crash to almost zero. This is a strong possibility because it is showing signs of developing into a bubble. We can still trade it higher but we have to sell near the highs and lock in our profits, because anytime a chart goes up, it must also correct downward.

Be careful to buy now, since there is a general trend of people selling to buy in at lower prices. You will be able to buy lower - at say $800 or $700 (or even $400 - who knows?) and thereby have a larger starting amount of Bitcoin. But be careful, Bitcoin is sensitive to sentiment and can change trend direction quickly. We will be making analysis here and try to understand the price movements and trend.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #613
  • Dec 15, 2013 9:24am Dec 15, 2013 9:24am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi hao, Welcome and thanks for your post - nevermind your English - I understand everything you say! Yes, Bitcoin has a history of more than 5 years and it will be with us for many more, hopefully. It depends on people and circumstances which we cannot predict, so let's see. Here's a great infographic: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...istory-bitcoin You say "it's too easy" - which makes me smile, because it reminds me of the saying: "If it seems too good to be true - it probably is!". The date you are thinking...
thanks for the reply, what I found out: Bitcoin, a retention buy / sell high. it is what I said above about the cause of Bitcoin prices. people try to buy a lot and sell less.
I think psychologically people are buying the maximum possible. Bitcoin may be difficult to buy Bitcoin number, if brokers buy Bitcoin allows large numbers, I doubt it !!!
Can you tell me the maximum limit you can buy Bitcoin? I am careful with a new item.
thank you !!!
Trading in the zone
  • #614
  • Dec 15, 2013 11:19am Dec 15, 2013 11:19am
Quoting hao
{quote} thanks for the reply, what I found out: Bitcoin, a retention buy / sell high. it is what I said above about the cause of Bitcoin prices. people try to buy a lot and sell less. I think psychologically people are buying the maximum possible. Bitcoin may be difficult to buy Bitcoin number, if brokers buy Bitcoin allows large numbers, I doubt it !!! Can you tell me the maximum limit you can buy Bitcoin? I am careful with a new item. thank you !!!

hao,

I'm not sure what you mean by "maximum limit". If you are asking me what the upper limit is where I would buy Bitcoin - my answer is "it depends". Depends on what the price chart is saying at the time. Right now, and for the next week or two, I am waiting for lower prices and would not buy anywhere above $900.

On your point about buyers and sellers and psychology: I think if there were more buyers than seller the price would go up, but for the past 10 days Bitcoin price has been going down...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #615
  • Edited 12:06pm Dec 15, 2013 11:50am | Edited 12:06pm
Golden Bitcoin Award

http://ubuntuone.com/4lQImDjATtrNCd0QV1Eohq

This week goes to Matthew O'Brien writing for that ol' tip-o-the-hat Business Insider - Not for quality of analysis but for quality of laughter! I swear, you cannot make this stuff up.

This is one of the worst articles I've ever seen:

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-b...charts-2013-12

I don't say that because the writer is bashing Bitcoin - you have to be able to criticize anything from the point of view of strengths and weaknesses if you are to understand it. For a start, the writer has fundamental facts wrong: Bitcoin mining will cease in 2040 [more like 2140]. He introduces the concept of "deflation" and says that it "sunk the global economy in the 1930'"s and that it would have done again (after 2008) were it not for the fact that "central banks have at least kept prices from falling, just barely." (!)

Right, so all that money printing the Fed is doing is NOT devaluing the USD and causing inflation?

He then shows a chart of the past year's US CPI and converts it from USD calibration to the equivalent BTC calibration over the past year et voila! Crushing deflation under BTC! Project this into the future (to 2040 [when, according to the writer, BTC will stop increasing in value due to it's scarcety ceiling being hit]) and you have 27 years of non-stop global deflation if BTC replaces the USD. What a genius...

After some ratchet about how using BTC online (instead of Dollars) must mean you're buying something illegal and how "researchers have shown" that 64% (sixty-four-percent!) of Bitcoins lie fallow in forgotten accounts because people will never spend them because they're just going to keep increasing in value until 2040 [that's so bad and immoral of them, right?] finally the journalist pulls a wildcard out from his tailpipe:

Quoting <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/author/matthew-obrien" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Matthew O'Brien</a>
What Bitcoin really needs is a central bank to stabilize its value. When the demand for Bitcoin goes up, they need to print more to keep it from skyrocketing.


O'Brien concludes that all of this means that Bitcoin could never work as a currency, but what he fails to see is the opportunity in the very weakness he accuses Bitcoin of: according to him this ill-conceived techno-libertarian "currency" is just going to keep rising and rising for 27 years - what a piece of crap!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #616
  • Dec 15, 2013 12:38pm Dec 15, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting venzen
Golden Bitcoin Award
Yeap, same story happened with gold.
You take the monetary base, divide by available gold in the known universe, or bitcoins, or dried digested grass and you obtain the perfect bubble.

At least gold is shiny.
  • #617
  • Dec 15, 2013 12:40pm Dec 15, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting venzen
For a start, the writer has fundamental facts wrong: Bitcoin mining will cease in 2040 [more like 2140].
Just a minor point here: While it's true that the very last bitcoin won't be mined until somewhere around 2140, the growth asymptotically approaches the maximum because the number of bitcoins mined per block decreases rapidly. Now it's 25 btc/block, in twenty years it will be less than one per block. Something like 90% of the maximum will have been mined within the next five years, and 99% by around 2030. Then it takes over a hundred years to mine that last one percent.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

https://en.bitcoin.it/w/images/en/e/...time_graph.png
  • #618
  • Edited 4:56pm Dec 15, 2013 1:56pm | Edited 4:56pm
it's possible market hasn't completed wave 2 yet. seems like a complex correction with an x wave in the middle. one more abc up remaining move for wave 2

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venzen, thanks for clarifying. i can follow your posts with more understanding in the future
  • #619
  • Edited 9:45pm Dec 15, 2013 6:32pm | Edited 9:45pm
Hey guys,
I've found this thread and I've been enjoying it for the last couple of weeks, I've been in BTC for about a year and half and things seems more friendly here

I like the wxy idea, but could the start of 1 be A, then your x would be B and we would be heading toward C around 1075.
Anyway, I don't know you but I'm starting to find a little strange how this corrective wave subdivide itself. I'm even starting to consider that 576 could have been "a" and not even "A" yet...

In my mind, worst case scenario could look like this (prices and time are just indicative) :
http://i.imgur.com/G0VEY2U.png
  • #620
  • Dec 15, 2013 8:54pm Dec 15, 2013 8:54pm
Quoting aristotel
{quote} Yeap, same story happened with gold. You take the monetary base, divide by available gold in the known universe, or bitcoins, or dried digested grass and you obtain the perfect bubble. At least gold is shiny.
Hello aristotel, do you know that Utah accept gold and silver as payment for goods.........

http://civsourceonline.com/2012/04/1...alities-in-us/

and do you know that bitcoin store accept bitcoins for goods also......

https://www.bitcoinstore.com/


and police get paid in bitcoin in Kentucky.........

http://hardforum.com/showthread.php?t=1795160&page=2

and do you know that there is even ATM machines out there already.......

https://bitcoinatm.com/

.....and aristotel, I have seeing dry digested grass for sale and at a very high price also.......I think is call cow manure....

http://www.nextag.com/cow-manure-for-sale/products-html

so why don't you buy and sale this instruments and make some money? post a chart or make some analysis or some, but we know that all instruments are bubbles, the stock market, the real state market, the dollar inflation and deflation they are control by the elite, and if they ever buy enough of this BTC, they will create bubbles also in it, but we just trade them and try to make some money, we are not saying they are not a bubble or not, the gold is manipulated by JPMorgan true paper money gold speculation, real state is manipulated by lending low interest rates loans to the banks and the lenders lend money to buy real state with no probe of income, (no doc) and no work and no probe of work or nothing and the create bubble also and people keep trading ETF's in real state and think the real state market is ok, no is not, is in a bubble also, so just trade bitcoin with us and post a chart please, thanks in advance........
The Chonchy
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