Bitcoin technical analysis

What is your long term count on BTCusd? If you have one.

The European Banking Authority will on Friday issue a statement warning of the risk of "violent fluctuations in electronic currencies" value, the danger of "digital wallets" being hacked, and of the lack of legal protections for users.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101270093

hi MelnGraySuit,

long time! how are you?

OK so you found the BTC-e MT4 ticker - note that it's slightly different from the MtGox price chart - MTGox is the biggest exchange and it doesn't offer short selling, so that is a buy-and-hold market. Here are two recent charts. I expect plenty more downside in the coming weeks but eventually Bitcoin must make either a 3rd wave (mass participation as the general public herd into the excitement) or an extended 5th (typical of commodities). My charts show both counts but I lean toward the latter option. Oh, and I've got BTCUSD with a diagonal wave base - at the larger degrees there are no impulses but diagonal motive waves instead: 3-3-3-3-3 ( 5 waves comprised of 3subwaves each)

H6

http://ubuntuone.com/4283lHFfW8iYjLEKy7d0a2


M15

http://ubuntuone.com/51NMLkHOApzf8S8MEgNS9Z

I am great...haven't been on FF much. Most threads have so much negativity that I just didn't want to be a part of. Looking to get into the BitCoin arena a little bit and saw your thread. The EUR/USD has just been awful really haven't made much money in the last few weeks. Complex counts!!. I will review your charts and draw up some of my own and see if they mesh. Happy Pippin!!

MGS,


Interesting remark about the negativity in many threads - I guess it's what Prechter would refer to as a "downturn in social mood"

If you visit here long enough you'll notice a lot of negativity toward Bitcoin - i mean some friends swing by and make intelligent criticism: PipTrapper, infinitus, and so forth (Luis Carlos wished me luck on day one), but sometimes a random member will just post some raw hatred and then disappear - this is a good sign IMO because it shows the latent social power of the "thing" in that it polarizes opinion and causes disruption. You know what they say about simple but radical ideas - they draw rejection at first but they never go away!

I started coding my own custom trading platform earlier this year, so for testing I needed a free ticker. From just tinkering and experimenting with the MtGox ticker API, I started noticing the BTCUSD price movements and wave development and I was like: "hey.. these waves are pushing into larger and larger degrees!" Even the April spike up and subsequent "crash" wasn't a mania wipe-out - it was a 1st wave of larger degree, it was clear from the chart. So, back then, as now, I believe this is a great instrument to trade. Regardless of any talk about mania or is it a currency, etc. Bitcoin has a chart and it can be traded and it suits EW-based trading very well. It's not charting like forex, but like a commodity and overall trend is up in what I tentatively label Primary degree wave 1 of Cycle degree I. My expectation is therefore that the current Intermediate wave 2 will bottom out near $450 and then we go up in a Intermediate degree wave 3 that could shock and awe.

Social mood and the news that lags it, is key. The general public are now getting on board after early adopters bid this speculative instrument up to the same value as an ounce of Gold. Although the speculative interest of the herd is building up, there are still concerns: regulation, do the authorities approve? will they Ban it? Yet in truth, none of those issues actually matter, because those "authorities" have no authority when it comes to crypto-currency - Bitcoin was designed to bypass their authority. So when this thing starts it's inevitable advance, people will pile in like nobody's business. The trick is going to be knowing when to get out because when it tops it will be 1000s of percentage points over-valued and over-bought and the subsequent drop will be cataclysmic.

Wow, did i just write all of that?

Look forward to seeing your analysis.

c wave is over... it should drop like a sack of potatoes.

good call on that short, emptymind..........

.....Great writings ...........

......I don't drought they are going to send their own hackers to hack, so people panic and get out of the game, so short for a bit now, lol...........

....I miss the bus on the way down, shoot, good call emptymind, goooooood callllllllll.......

.......Me think we are going for the red ema 100 in congruence with the purple upper trend line of the channel down, if it cross, uhm, moon here we go........I'm going long, sorry, stop under chocolate ema 30......wish me luck....

....Oh sorry, entry 877, long.......

...according to the 1,2,3 pattern I should have enter at the pass of 50% but I waited to the pull back and enter lower at 877, so I'm risking a bit here but 2 is higher than one and 3 didn't reach one so I should be ok, I had to green impulsive candles away from support on this 5M chart but I don't know if it will be enough, lets see, stop is two pips under the fractal on 1......

.......I got stop at two pips below the one fractal.....rinse and repeat.......like I don't know when is power or not, maybe this strategy won't work all the time so I need to find the impulsive real candles on a higher time frame perhaps.........testing, testing one two tree.....

red ema 100 bounce perhaps.....

chonchcy,

refer back to your chart in this post. This is what an impulse looks like: from the bottom (which is 0)

wave 1 up is strong and definite

wave 2 retraces wave 1 deeply - if it's 62% that's a confirmation

wave 3 is the longest wave and it is often the steepest angle - mostly it is 138% or 162% the length of wave 1

wave 4 pulls back 38% into wave 3 but doesn't go into the price territory of wave 1

wave 5 is about the same length as wave 1


Note that waves 1 and 3 and 5 will be impulses themselves (look at a smaller TF and you'll see they're fractals of the bigger wave!)
Wave 2 is often a zigzag or flat and wave 4 is often a triangle

All of these waves and subwaves are related by Fib ratios but you will by far see .382 (38%) and .618 (62%) the most often. With longer waves it's often a case of adding 100 or 200 or even 400 percent + 38% (or 62%)

If you like this EW stuff, you should get yourself a book called "Elliott Wave Principle" - everything you need to know is in there.

Nah, i'm not going to lie to you - the count you put on this chart is invalid! LOL

You need to zoom out more and see the bigger picture - M5 and M15 is good - like in the last chart you posted.

good to see you starting to count - you're on the ladder my friend

good call, emptymind!

No, NO, no.....lol welcome to the internet misunderstandings, I meant in my charts this 1,2,3 patterns shown here by TEB63, that is the system that I look for impulsive candles, wish are usually on London open on the eur.usd and at 7 on aud/usd and at Asia open on the yen pairs, I'm not posting anything on the EW yet until I learn, but this stuff on the 1,2,3 patterns by TEB63 is good stuff, I just need the time for the BTC impulsive candles to be determined yet.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=106165


......For us this is a classic 1,2,3 pattern.....for us is better when is angle and separation on the moving averages and a pull back of the blue ema to the chocolate ema occurs, like in the chart here.......then we look for an impulsive candle to show us force, power on the movement, then we look for the move to be away from support or away from resistance, but I'm too itchy fingers to wait for all the signals, but if followed, it is hard to miss with this simple system, but I do want to learn the EW's and the book is already order........

Norway cracking down on Bitcoin
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...st-nation.html