A new emerging commodity / currency : Bitcoins (BTC)

As promised, here is tonight's Bitcoin technical market update.

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Longterm: RALLY.

Midterm: SIDEWAYS

Shortterm: RALLY / SIDEWAYS

Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.



Analysis

1. Price action review over the past days:
We forecast in the latest twitter updates: "BTC/USD in narrow trading range between 8.1$ and 9$. Breakout on either side could set a new trend."

Indeed, BTC/USD has been trading in a narrow range for a while and recently moved to hitting 9 $ resistance.





2. Longterm outlook:

The longterm "BitBull-Market" is on track and can move higher in the next weeks. At the same time, there are some watch outs when looking at the midterm picture (past 45 days, see midterm outlook below).
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/wp-cont...30dailylog.png




As previously mentioned, a break below the 5$ area would trigger a deeper correction towards 3.5 - 3.7 $ and ultimately 1.2-1.3$. Even when BTC/USD would hit the latter price zone, the longterm uptrend is still intact.



2. Mid term update (I am adding this time zone which I will cover specifically to subscribers as of Jun 1, 2011. http://bit.ly/mjP1Rh)

As mentioned above, the past 45 days show a strong trend upwards. BTC/USD prices rose from 1$ to 9.3$ in just this short period of time.

Prices are sitting now exactly on this uptrend line, which, if broken to the downside, could trigger a more protracted decline. There are a few more watch outs (momentum, relative strength divergences), which should provide some caution.

Staying above will likely extend the rally.


http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/wp-cont...urly45dlog.png



3. Short term update

Bitcoins "adhered" nicely to the forecast issued in the last May 26 analysis: "As long as the 7.8-8.2$ range holds, [higher levels are] in the cards. A break below would be the first warning sign that the latest rally leg has ended."

The short/ midterm trend is sideways between 9 (9.3) and 8.1$. Patient traders could await a breakout in either direction, based on the two key scenarios:

Scenario 1)

A breakout above 9.0-9.3$ could lead to hitting the 10$ level, which poses strong resistance. A strong break of 10$ could then ultimately lead to 14$ and 18-22$ (the upper range of the parallel trendchannel).

Scenario 2)

A break down below 8.1 $ would trigger further correction potential down to typical fibonacci retracements of

38%: 7.8-7.9$

50%: 7.4 $

62%: 7.0 $

Please watch out that going below 8.7-8.9 $ already creates a warning sign - as it means the mid-term trend is broken.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/wp-cont...urly45dlog.png


Trade Bitcoins well!



Your S3052



Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.





Your S3052



Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

New all time high above 10$

Up 330,000 % in one year.

Looks like someone in Hong Kong hacked the bitcoin server and caused a valuation crash:

http://it.slashdot.org/story/11/06/1...-Price-Crashes

LMAO, now that is some good sauce!

I found another article that goes a bit more in depth.

What I found interesting is the supposed anonymity. I guess it works if you "mine" them yourself but if you use a credit card to buy them then is it really all that anonymous since the CC creates the papertrail?

Here is the Bitcoin technical update.

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Longterm: UP.

Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds

Shortterm: UP from the 11$ or 12.5 $ lows.

Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.



The is no significant change to the previous outlook. Despite the lackluster trading behavior over the past days and weeks, Bitcoins are still in an uptrend.



Technical analysis

Mid and long term, the past weeks of consolidation do not change the overall bullish perspective. People who have been into bitcoin trading already in late 2010 or early 2011 have experienced this sideways consolidation multiple times, and every time they have seen strong resolution to the upside. We can also draw a triangle, and we know that bitcoins like triangles and most often lead to upside breakouts.



While this could be different this time, there is no evidence to suggest that. Instead, most key indicators including volume point to a likely breakout to the upside, when a test of the all time high just under 32 $ could be the next big target (while thsi may take weeks to hit it).

A break below the broad 10 $ zone will in all likelihood change this and this remains the alternate scenario. In this event, a break down to much lower levels is likely (i.e. 5$).



Short term, there is strong support in the 11 $ - 12. 5 $ zone and if this holds, the trend remains up. Only if this is broken, a decline to the core 9.5 - 10.0 $ zone is the next likely outcome where the mid term trend will be decided.


http://imghaven.com/images/19237/BTC...0+weekly+1.png


Trade Bitcoins well!

Your S3052



Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

Here is the Bitcoin technical analysis update.

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Long term: UP.

Mid term: Consolidation from the 31.9 $ all time high.

Short term: UP from the 5.74 $ low.

Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.



With the expected fall into the 5 - 5.8 $ area, the minimum downside retracement has been reached last week. This could have already been the end of the correction from the all time high of 31.9 $. If this is true, bitcoins could be starting a major rally again which would be important for bitcoin trading.



Bitcoin Technical Analysis

We may be right at the start of a major rally, provided bitcoin will confirm the nascent breakout above the trend channel - as shown on below chart.

The short term will remain UP as long as the 5 - 5.8 $ zone holds (red line), and even better, as long as 8.4 $ holds.

Momentum (MACD) and relative strength indicators point upwards for the first time since mid June 2011.

http://bit.ly/pf9p9f







Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical analysis here.

Your S3052



Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

Here is the Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis, with the intent to forecast Bitcoin prices.

Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

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Bitcoin Forecast:

Long term: UP.

Mid term: DOWN.

Short term: DOWN.

Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.



The short term rally that started at 5.74 $ came to an end yesterday with a decline below 10.5 $ and 10 $. This is a bearish sign and shows that bitcoin prices have entered a more protracted correction again . Further downside is now more likely. It will take a move above 14 $ to confirm the mid term rally continuation.



A test or even break of the key level of 5.74 $ is now quite probable.



Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis

The strong decline from yesterday has changed the outlook significantly.

1) Bitcoin Prices broke beneath the key 10 $ and 10.5 $ level.

2) The bitcoin market is now below the green upper resistance line.

3) The momentum indicator MACD is likely to confirm a sell signal with a bearish cross over.

4) The relative strength is waning and is now again below 50, which is also bearish.







Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical and Bitcoin market analysis here.

Your S3052



Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

Here is the Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis, with the intent to forecast Bitcoin prices.



Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:



14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS



Long term: UP

Mid term: DOWN

Short term: DOWN



As forecast before, the break below 8.7 - 8.5 $ indeed led to lower bitcoin prices.
Today, bitcoin prices fell to 7.25 $, the lowest value in 28 days.



Prices can (but don't have to) fall into the 5 $ area and possibly even lower. We keep our stance that until there is better evidence, "Only a high volume move above 12 $ would make us change this bearmarket view in bitcoin prices."



http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com

Here is the Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Chart Analysis, with the intent to forecast Bitcoin prices.



Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

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Overall, Bitcoin prices are at a very interesting juncture and people may memorize the "Bitcoin September 2011" in history.

As expected in the last technical analysis, bitcoin prices did not hold the 5.74 $ level. Bitcoin prices fell another -30% to 4.18 $. At the same time, BTCUSD showed impressive technical strength and could avoid a crash.

Looking ahead, the stabilization around the 4 $ range in recent days, plus the bullish divergences of key indicators point to a strong possibility of a rally.









Technical Analysis

We focus today on the big picture, the long term view.

There is a lot of chatter about the "BITCOIN BUBBLE", but in reality there is no bubble in bitcoins. Definitely not yet. Why is the decline from June no bubble?



1) The bitcoin price decline as evident in the attached logarithmic bitcoin chart looks like a standard correction: The 1 year rally has been much steeper than the 3 months correction. The logarithmic chart is the right way to visualize prices because prices rose exponentially in a very short period of time.

2) The volumes in turnover (not shown here) of the rally is much stronger than the volume of the past 3 months correction.



3) Pessimism has been and still is very strong, as evidenced by bitcoin investor sentiment poll data and the "doom & gloom" comments in the bitcoin forum. We have been using this sentiment very successfully as contrary indicator: When too many people are bearish, they are not invested and hope for lower prices. As prices may never get lower, they need to chase the rally in some point and the rally gains momentum.

4) Key indicators such as RSI and MACD show bullish divergences (see bitcoin chart)

5) Bitcoin prices have respected the key long term red uptrend line and tested successfully. This uptrend line is very strong support. And even another decline into the 3-4 $ area is still a possibility which would not invalidate the longterm uptrend as we can draw the uptrend line in a different slope (see orange line).

6) Bitcoin prices are on the verge of a breakout above the green downtrend line, which could initiate a strong rally.



Only a high volume, sustained break below 3 $ will make us turn long term bearish bitcoins. Otherwise, there is upside potential to new all time highs, into the 50 - 100 $ area. At the same time, one has to be patient, as the rise to those levels will not be a "straight line".

As always, we update the short term picture closely, including price targets and trading scenarios in the subscriber section of http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com

http://bit.ly/nI9ryG




Your S3052




Disclaimer: Please always do your own due diligence, and consult your financial advisor. S3052 owns some bitcoins. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

BTC/USD up +1,473 % in 2011, and up +250% since the correction bottom

http://imghaven.com/images/26394/BTC...01+hourly1.png

After a rally from 0.003 $ at the start of Bitcoin trading to 31.89 $ in June 2011, Bitcoin prices declined for 4.5 months to just under 2 $ in November 2011.

Many people in the media called bitcoin death at that moment.

But… since the November bottom, the Bitcoin exchange rate has advanced versus the US dollar by more than 300%, from 2 $ to 6-7 $ per Bitcoin.

The big news now is that the new Bitcoin rally will likely be even stronger than the first rally from April 2010 to June 2011.

read more here:
http://hawaiinewsdaily.com/2012/01/b...-bitcoin-race/

Bitcoin prices have consolidated after the strong rally from 1.994 to 7.22 $.

Now, it seems that prices are set for another leg higher.

If the all time high is reached, this could be an upside of 6x

http://imghaven.com/images/27094/BTC...+dailylog1.png

Bitcoin prices indeed broke out to the upside as predicted.
While there may be some kind of consolidation of this breakout short term, mid term this opens up the chances for a retest and break of the January 2012 high of 7.22 $.

The bitcoin chart above shows that there is not much resistance left on the way up.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/uploa...808188.png?551

Detailed short term forecasts, cycle analysis and support and resistances are available in the subscriber section.
http://bit.ly/oGVMrh

where are you getting your price feed from?

here's one - https://mtgox.com/

or from: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/

[quote=S3052;5723824][color="Blue"]Bitcoin prices indeed broke out to the upside as predicted.
While there may be some kind of consolidation of this breakout short term, mid term this opens up the chances for a retest and break of the January 2012 high of 7.22 $.

The bitcoin chart above shows that there is not much resistance left on the way up.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/uploa...808188.png?551



Interesting to revisit this after 6 months of inactivity..
The bitcoin price indeed skyrocketed as forecast in the bitcoin technical analysis.
Up +288% in 2012

I've been following and trading Bitcoin since 2011. It has been a fun ride and I've updated my blog in the past few months with technical analysis. Unfortunately, today I had to make the decision to limit my worst case downside risk due to recent current events. While US authorities have not specifically called out Bitcoin they have been very active this month shutting down financial methods that are not subject to their control. You can read my thoughts and analysis here.

BTC is blowing up like the World Trade Center!

what is going on with BTC now?
it seems bank could explore blockchain technology but not BTC itself.
https://medium.com/investing-2-0/wal...n-b2747909eb90
Now BTC is going inevitably to zero ( zero value in USD?)
is it worth buying some other coins or are there only fairy dust cause they are not flipping real? It seems like just another bubble among tech bubbles.