A new emerging commodity / currency : Bitcoins (BTC)

Triangles are very clear, most of the times.

This time they fulfilled this premise again.

After breaking through 0.3 triangle bottom line, prices are in steep fall, almost crash like.

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

The overall picture of a rally does not change at all, despite today’s volatility and crash type decline over the last hours.
BTC is in its early stages and with low overall volumes, volatility is high. The more BTC grows in terms of people/businesses using/accepting them, the lower volatility will get.


Analysis Nov 8 (chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
I am raising support level to 0.10-0.13 $ based on the longterm lograrithmic uptrend line (as posted a while ago). As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
If this level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible.
Strong longterm upside targets are 0.50 $ and parity 1.00 $.

2. Short term update
Prices consolidated in a triangle over past 48hrs before breaking down. Based on triangle analysis, price target for this corrective wave is 0.3 (triangle base) - [0.5 (high) - 0.3 (triangle base)] = about 0.10$ which fits nicely with the above mentioned long term up-sloping channel trend line.
There will be small bounces on the way down. Small bounce levels are 0.25, 0.20, 0.17, 0.13. I expect the target of 0.10-0.13 to be hit in the next 1-3 days.
Only a rise above 0.30 (hourly close) will make BTC continue the rally short term.


Next update Wednesday, Nov 10th

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Jesus H. Christ, this forum has become a scam magnet.

QFT

This is totally no scam.
Have you actually tried to read some background on bitcoin.org?

dancing on this rope.. likely to fall

Could you please outline the scam you see here?

In my view a fiat currency like the USD with unlimited inflationary potential is the thing to be wary of.

Thanks for the donation today. Much appreciated.

Trend is down now.
Target as forecast 0.13-0.17 range

Donations welcome.
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As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Our forecast over the past weeks and even short term over the past days was fulfilled in an almost text book manner. (just look at the previous updates).
Sometime we will also be wrong, so please recognize that you trade at your own risk.


Analysis Nov 10
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
The support level between 0.13 - 0.17$ was reached quickly, but proved to be formidable (see the longterm logarithmic uptrend line, posted here again). As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
If this level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible (while at lo probability).

Strong upside targets are now 0.50 $ (previous high), parity 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area (upper trendchannel).

2. Short term update
Prices broke out of the triangle and forecast was fulfilled almost perfectly (Nov 8 update: "I expect the target of 0.10-0.13 to be hit in the next 1-3 days").
Price fell out of bed rapidly and crashed from 0.50$ - 0.14$ by a whopping 72% within 48 hours.
This level held and we have also seen reduced selling (lower volume as price fell).
RSI and MACD are diverging which is a positive sign.
Short term trend has turned up which will be confirmed by breaking the downward sloping trendline from the 0.50$ high (currently around 0.23$).

Key resistance is 0.30$ which shows huge selling volume in the order book. Further upside is only possible once this resistance has been cleared significantly.


Next update Friday, Nov 12th

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As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Our forecast for BTC/USD over the past weeks and even short term over the past days was fulfilled in an almost text book manner. In a nutshell, the rally has resumed after the big decline. Still, strong resistance between 0.30-0.35 needs to be cleared to allow BTCs climbing back to the all time high of 0.50$. Analysis Nov 12
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
The support level between 0.13 - 0.17$ proved to be formidable (see the longterm logarithmic uptrend line, posted here). As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
If this level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible (while at low probability).

Strong upside targets are 0.50 $ (previous high), parity 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area.
http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png





2. Short term update
Prices broke down from the triangle and the forecast was fulfilled almost perfectly (Nov 8 update: "I expect the target of 0.10-0.13 to be hit in the next 1-3 days").
After a rapid decline, prices found strong support on the long term trendline between 0.13 - 0.17$ and immediately bounced upwards (see "hammer candle".
Over the past 48 hours, prices broke out of the downward sloping trendline from the 0.50$ high and are now heading towards 0.30-0.35$.
Key short term resistance is 0.30-0.35$ which still shows huge selling volume in the order book. Further upside is only possible once this resistance has been cleared significantly.


Key short term support is the 0.20-0.23 area which shows some meaningful buying interest.



http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.png
Next update Monday, Nov 15th
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This is to post an interim alert on BTC/USD.
Based on price and volume developments over the past days, we see the most likely short term direction DOWN.

Prices may test the longterm uptrend line (currently around 0.13-0.165) before potentially continuing the rally.

Only a break above 0.35$ will invalidate this picture.
S3052

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I feel no need to post another update this evening. All has been said this morning, so I am posting this again, with minor finetuning.


"Based on price and volume developments over the past days, we see the most likely short term direction DOWN.
Prices may test the longterm uptrend line (currently around 0.13-0.165) or at least the 0.20 support area before potentially continuing the rally.
Only a break above the 0.30-0.35$ range will invalidate this picture."

Next update Wednesday, Nov 17th (provided the market starts to wake up again)

Your S3052



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As prices are not moving a lot recently, here for you tonight a theoretical section around Elliott Waves, applied to BTC/USD:

The last big rally start started around Oct 7 can be counted in textbook manner as an impulsive 5-wave. The decline from the Nov 6 high could take the shape of 11 different correction pattern.
The simplest pattern is the a-b-c zigzag decline, which is illustrated in the posted chart.

Let's now also consider time relationships. The rally from Oct 7 lasted 29 days. Common Fibonacci time retracements are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. This points to the following time targets for an end of the correction that started Nov 6:
1) Nov 16 (+11 days, 38.2%)
2) Nov 21 (+15 days, 50%)
3) Nov 24 (+18 days, 61.8%)

Watchout: Time targets are less critical than price targets and wave patterns. Hence, use time targets as additional tool, never as the only one.

Your S3052

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=28

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Nov 17, 2010

As promised, here is tonight’s Technical BTC Update.
Both, longterm and now also shortterm price development show that the direction is UP.
Prices have corrected over the past 48 hours in another leg down to 0.212 $, but quickly reserved upwards.
The rally has resumed after the big decline from 0.50$. Still, strong resistance between 0.30-0.35 needs to be cleared to allow BTCs climbing back to the all time high of 0.50 $, but it seems that prices will attack this resistance soon (there is just not a lot BTC volume left below).
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in rally mode, with higher highs and lower lows.
The support level between 0.13 – 0.17 $ proved to be formidable. The BTC market is even so strong that the second leg down did not even reach this level, but already found strong support around 0.21-0.22 $, which in itself is a very strong sign.
If the longterm uptrend (now between 0.17-0.22) level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible (while at low probability).

Strong upside targets are the previous high, 0.50 $, dollar parity at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 – 1.50 area.
http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png


2. Short term update
Today, prices broke out of the downward sloping trendline from the 0.50$ high and are now heading towards 0.30-0.35 $.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...17-hourly1.pngWhile there remains strong selling volume in the order book, surprises on the upsides are possible. I am adding some pure speculation here as an exception: Traders may remove this barrier anytime as they did not get overly nervous in the latest drop and kept their prices unchanged (which I tracked closely). This means they may remove the lid anytime. On top, exchanges are opening more and more possibilities to add funds.



http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Friday, Nov 19th

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Ticker
---- Strong volume to the upside ----
---- rallying toward 0.30 -----

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Nov 19, 2010

As promised, here is tonight’s Technical BTC Update.
As a weekend special, I am including tonight an order book analysis over the past days.
Overall, our forecast remains fully on track: “Both, longterm and now also shortterm price developments point UPwards.
The rally has resumed after the big decline from 0.50$. Still, strong resistance between 0.30-0.35 needs to be cleared to allow BTCs climbing back to the all time high of 0.50 $, but it seems that prices will attack this resistance soon…”.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in rally mode, unless the longterm uptrend (now between 0.17-0.22) is broken.

Strong upside targets are the previous high, 0.50 $, dollar parity at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 – 1.50 area.
http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
In the middle of the week, “BTC/USD broke out of the downward sloping trendline from the 0.50$ high and are now heading towards 0.30-0.35 $”.
Over the past 5 trading days, prices appear to have formed a classical inverted head and shoulders pattern which is BULLISH (see chart)http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...918-hourly.png.
There are further signs of technical strength:

 

1. The technical indicator Slow Stochastics turned upwards from an oversold condition.
2. Both pther technical indicators, MACD and RSI show a positive divergence vs. prices (see green lines).
3. The RSI points upwards again.
4. Buying pressure is mounting as indicated by the increase of buying (BID) volume in the order book between 0.20$ and the lowest ASK price at the time. When analysing this over the past 5 days (see chart below) I have seen an increase from 3 M$ on Nov 15th to 12M$ on Nov 19th (4x higher).
   

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...s-Nov15-19.png

Still, there remains strong selling volume in the order book:However, also this volume between 0.40$ and the highest BID price is declining from the high of 52 M$ on Nov 16 to 43 M$ today. This means that there was net accumulation of approx. 20 M$ on MtGox in the past 5 days.
If this trend continues, the remaining 43M$ can be cleared to the upside in a matter of days, particularly if more bitcoin users join the party, …ehm the exchanges.


http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Monday, Nov 22nd
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Your S3052

If this is what I think it is, value will increase as the demand for cpu increases. However with technology advancing and computers becoming very cheap cpu power is also decreasing in cost.

the demand will steadily increase, so the fundamental side will sky rocket prices as we grow into the digital age.

The price stabilizers will ultimately be the advancement in technology as CPU become more efficient.

Honestly this idea, was nothing but a rant that my techy brother introduced to me years ago. I never thought this would become a reality so soon.

So I'm in.
This is not some scam. And this is actually has value, unlike fiat currencies.

Now to buy bitcoins with libertyrresever, lol. dont even. LB is a scam and a big rip off when you pay 5% processing both ways, buy/sell.

now with a wire transfer, yeah thats honest, now I can dump my USD and get something with value that can be used in the future. lol.

Now as far as manipulation. Of course their will be manipulation by the technology companies and the companies the rely on the digital age like Skpye(VOIP) networks, website, banking (forex) etc. just think about how DEPENDANT we are on CPU. Without fast processors, we wouldn't be able to post all our charts on FF. Just think about all the servers that make our lives efficient.

So can you tell us more? Like every 5 pages. post the links or a summary of this Thread including, how we get started trading Bitcoins etc. THanks in advance

"So can you tell us more? Like every 5 pages. post the links or a summary of this Thread including, how we get started trading Bitcoins etc. THanks in advance:"

Thanks for the in-depth comment. You are right, this really has big potential.

Here is a snapshot on trading bitcoins:
1) There are 4 online exchanges:
(1) MtGox http://mtgox.com: This is the biggest exchange wth highest turnover. Average daily USD turnover volume in the last 20 days was 15,000. This exchange works really very well. Transcation fees at 0.65% on every transaction.
Best way to get funds in was Paypal USD before scammers caused some limited fraud and MtGox moved to liqpay, than libertyreserve. No fraud since then and it is all up and running. I know MtGox is looking for better ways to allow fund inflows. If this can be done, prices will skyrock as there are loads of people who want to buy bitcoins.

(2) Bitcoinmarket https://www.bitcoinmarket.com/ : This allows liberty reserve USD, Paypal USD and Pecunix GAU. Because of the scammers, the owner stopped taking new registrations. However, for the ones who are in it functions perfectly. And the owner also takes new traders / investors who are known as honest folks from a longterm history on the bitcoin forum http://www.bitcoin.org/smf/index.php .

(3) Btcex https://btcex.com/?language=en :This works for Russian Rubles RUB. And it has started to accept also WMZ, WMR, WME. (I am not sure what this exactly is).
The positive is that this exchange accepts bank wire (but in RUB).

(4) A great OTC platform: http://bitcoin-otc.com

(5) Bitcoinexchange https://www.bitcoinexchange.com/ : This is an exchange that allows EUR funds. Also here, bank wire is working greatly and it also allows sms or phone call payment.

There are also some bitcoin / cash exchangers https://www.bitcoin4cash.com/
and
http://bitcoin2cash.com/.

Bitcoin charts are really great here: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/

Bitcoin Analysis is available here, on the technical analysis forum and on http://mtgox.com/blog/

There are some folks working on opening more exchanges (it's a race who is first..), particularly making it simple and safe for even your grandma to purchase bitcoins. If this happens, I am sure 1) BTC/USD prices will skyrock and 2) a bitcoin-accepting-business economy will flourish.

Hope this helps a bit. Let me know if you have more questions.