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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,181
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:59am Oct 27, 2013 10:59am
Quoting RamsesII
Really good analysis venzen; I was in the middle of also trying to figure out a count for gold as we continue to push forward. In your white count, the length of ii-iii compared to iv-v makes me think that i-ii should be labeled 3-4 and the ED will push higher, as I seem to always try to pick ED 5th's too early and this is exactly where it's easy to do so, but it still looks valid. I'd be inclined to reverse position with a strong downward move but RSI is looking still very bullish up here. I'm currently favouring the ultra bullish 1-2 i-ii count,...
hi Ramses,

Yes, your alt count shows the i-ii relabeled as 3-4 and I sat with that for about 3 hours! What changed my mind was the massive divergence showing at lower TFs.

You mention RSI looking bullish. On your chart, take a look at what happens when RSI spends too long in either O/B or O/S... specifically the August high. With your RSI TLs coming so close to making an apex, I imagine that RSI triangle is about to break to the downside and then it's got quite some distance to travel!

I'm waking up for the market open - it will be interresting to see what the Asian session does from current levels.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,182
  • Edited 3:19pm Oct 27, 2013 3:08pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} ... counting as 3 waves is actually 1234(12345) - a textbook extended 5th....
Hi Venzen
If this chart is a you counted we are on ground floor of a serious upmove that will eventually take out 1800. Seriously bullish. Thanks for your comments its good to have all the angles covered. I checked out your counting on the daily chart and can see what you are saying. The black line can represent the initial 5 wave up and the red line the extension of the 5th wave. This count is worth serious consideration. My ccount is the pink line...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,183
  • Oct 27, 2013 3:18pm Oct 27, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} agreed on h4 and anything above, like the daily and weekly!
Hi Xtrade, how do you use the daily and the weekly ? For me switching from 15 min to 4h was the best thing that has happened to me.Will be glad if I can learn more about daily and weekly.Nowadays I'm also looking at the monthly charts .When I looked at the monthly chart 2 weeks ago I had a strong feeling that november would be the rock n roll month for gold !
  • #27,184
  • Edited 5:52pm Oct 27, 2013 5:46pm | Edited 5:52pm
Good day to all you traders out there! Here we go: Looking at the charts of the past I notice that so many of your targets from tech analysis are not what the market tested. How disappointing for those who have been left hanging in the balance and wondering when they may get the analysis right. Getting the direction right is half the problem. We can expect to guess that around 48.7% of the time correctly without any historical data. With historical data we can expect that figure to rise to over 80% of the time, which leaves an unmistakeable 20% hole in the chances of getting it wrong! With so much information available, it is astounding that only a paltry 5% of punters actually get it right enough to make trading a worthwhile game.

This little technical analysis here alone appears to prove that of the 80%+ that should be correct guesses, only (5/80)% actually get it right which can only mean that there is an issue with the belief/analysis systems of the punters, not the data itself. On Friday we saw that people were "predicting the future" of XAU:USD to sink to 1310 to 1320. It had not been anywhere near that level since Tuesday last week (17 Oct '13) when Non Farm Payroll shot through that level without a second glance. So many people lost their shirts that day, hopefully it wasn't you.

This week looks like we say goodbye to the 1330's for a long time. Remember, anything can happen. Today looks like it's going to kick off to a monstrous trading session and already the smart money has made their play for a direction: down. This may well prove to be only a retracement on a minor scale , but the ultimate target the market is hunting down is 1360+. The market has opened today with a 1353, so those of you who think this is a correction, I think we might want to assess that logic. There are systems out there that are incredibly accurate, but beyond the reach of the average trader, simply because those systems are accurate and not available to the public. Consider for a moment that the bulk of punters follow what the herd does when it comes to investing in a system: the best marketed products are the best sellers... not entirely for their accuracy, but their user recommendation value. Buck the trend. Hoof out the regular and common. Try something different and see how that affects your bottom line.

If you have not made an obscene amount of money on a $1 bet yet, then you are trading the wrong platform, imo. When you see those spikes in volume, you know that there are fish in the water. Time to cast your nets on the other side, my friends. Remember that it is Monday, and the market has yet to wake up to it's coffee around the time London opens. So hedge your bets until then and let's see where this sucker is going to take us today... it can only go one of two ways: up or down. Time will tell. Today you should get 2 decent trades in and be in the money. Any more trades than that, and you are really overtrading. Keep your equity up and the margin will take care of itself.

A note on currencies: USD weakness is causing foreign trade to rely on Euro. The S & P index is telling the same story. Gold is enduring a revival because of the poor leasership issues Stateside. Asian markets are increasingly going to react to this shift by switching value from "In God We Trust" to "Voorsprung Euro Technik". Gold is a bull market. Everyone wants it and there is a dwindling supply of it. The value of gold is determined entirely upon the value of trust in global currency trust values. When you figure out how much trust a trader puts in a currency, then you will realise what this means. See you all on the upside.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #27,185
  • Oct 27, 2013 7:48pm Oct 27, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting The Rhodie
.... On Friday we saw that people were \"predicting the future\" of XAU:USD to sink to 1310 to 1320. It had not been anywhere near that level since Tuesday last week (17 Oct '13) when Non Farm Payroll shot through that level without a second glance. So many people lost their shirts that day, hopefully it wasn't you. This week looks like we say goodbye to the 1330's for a long time...
Rhodie,

Thanks for gifting us with your words of wisdom. 2 questions:

1) Where are you getting your statistics from?

2) Does your quotation marks around "predicting the future" also apply to your own statement "This week we say goodbye to the 1330's" ?

It's fine and well to opine about the markets and the punters but I would check the tone I use when addressing my equals.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,186
  • Oct 27, 2013 8:23pm Oct 27, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Rhodie, Thanks for gifting us with your words of wisdom. 2 questions: 1) Where are you getting your statistics from? 2) Does your quotation marks around \"predicting the future\" also apply to your own statement \"This week we say goodbye to the 1330's\" ? It's fine and well to opine about the markets and the punters but I would check the tone I use when addressing my equals.

Yo venZ..
got some links on SDR and NWO? too interesting to not know
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #27,187
  • Oct 27, 2013 8:56pm Oct 27, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting Mave
{quote} Yo venZ.. got some links on SDR and NWO? too interesting to not know

hi Mave,

i don't have links handy for those, but everything about SDR is on the IMF website and as for NWO, I substitute it with NWA!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,188
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:10pm Oct 27, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Mave, i don't have links handy for those, but everything about SDR is on the IMF website and as for NWO, I substitute it with NWA!

you mean.. nigga wha wha ah ha ha (echo style) !
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #27,189
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:26pm Oct 27, 2013 10:26pm
I agree with KIWIOZ, my first target will be around 1314-1317,
my reason is I consider the EW wave from 1310-1356 as 5th wave, because it is just 61.8% of the wave 1 to wave 3.
also on my chart,eur/usd 4 hr will need an retracement as well as usd/jpy needs to go up .
on long term I am still looking to go long for gold until around 1462, and then went to around 13XX,finally will do the trangle stop to around 1423 area, before come down to around 789. thats my thought, will change anytime if the EW changes,
chart is 1 hour MACD divergence, Thanks.
  • #27,190
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:28pm Oct 27, 2013 10:28pm
Quoting fxjay
I agree with KIWIOZ, my first target will be around 1314-1317, my reason is I consider the EW wave from 1310-1356 as 5th wave, because it is just 61.8% of the wave 1 to wave 3. also on my chart,eur/usd 4 hr will need an retracement as well as usd/jpy needs to go up . on long term I am still looking to go long for gold until around 1462, and then went to around 13XX,finally will do the trangle stop to around 1423 area, before come down to around 789. thats my thought, will change anytime if the EW changes, chart is 1 hour MACD divergence, Thanks....
wrong pic on the top
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  • #27,191
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:33pm Oct 27, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting venzen
Gold M15 - uptrend EW count The chart shows three counts: the white count assumes an ongoing downward correction in which the current advance is doomed to turn lower once 1,400 has been achieved. An alternate \"ending\" for wave 5 is shown in blue - an expanding diagonal. The red count is my my best effort at trying to make sense of the advance. This count assumes the direction of trend is up (and has been since the end of June). According to this count the current advance is the humble A wave of wave 3 of a monster diagonal heading to new highs....

I like your chart, nice and clear, thanks for sharing.
  • #27,192
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:36pm Oct 27, 2013 10:36pm
does usd pending home sales news affect the gold?

if yes, i think it will going higher about 1360 - 1375
  • #27,193
  • Oct 28, 2013 12:52am Oct 28, 2013 12:52am
Quoting fxjay
{quote} I like your chart, nice and clear, thanks for sharing.

hi fxjay,

thanks for saying. (actually i thought my chart was too cluttered - but nice to know someone can read it!)

I spent some time this morning making sense of what EW degree Gold may be in. To make a long story short, I believe we're in Cycle degree wave 5 to a new all-time high. That means we can expect five Primary degree waves to the top. Each upward Primary wave consists of five Intermediate degree waves. This wave up from 1251 to 1356 is an Intermediate degree wave, namely "Intermediate wave 1". Why am i saying all of this? Because the best TF to spot Intermediate degree divergence is in H1 - as per your chart!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,194
  • Oct 28, 2013 1:42am Oct 28, 2013 1:42am
I just noticed that PA is repeating exactly the same wave pattern in M5 as it printed in M15 right at the start of this advance (wave 1/a) on my most recent chart) - if the pattern holds then we are about to go up in an impulse! Otherwise it may just continue down on the C wave.... I'm not taking any chances, though, and will be closing my short position.

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,195
  • Oct 28, 2013 2:42am Oct 28, 2013 2:42am
Possible moves
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  • #27,196
  • Edited 4:20am Oct 28, 2013 3:00am | Edited 4:20am
Quoting venzen
I just noticed that PA is repeating exactly the same wave pattern in M5 as it printed in M15 right at the start of this advance (wave 1/a) on my most recent chart) - if the pattern holds then we are about to go up in an impulse! Otherwise it may just continue down on the C wave.... I'm not taking any chances, though, and will be closing my short position. {image}

GM - will that red 5m hammer with increased volume at the 50% retrace of Friday's range be the turning point? - TWT, meanwhile, I too am flat waiting to see what the London Guys do - assuming that sufficient of them have got through the huge storm that its currently battering the south of the UK....

PS Long 1 unit at 1347.90 after LO

PSS Long 1 unit at 1350.20 at 6:06 gmt after retrace to 1350 level / 5m down TL, most EMAs are now geen so looking for a test of todays' high .....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #27,197
  • Oct 28, 2013 4:01am Oct 28, 2013 4:01am
There's only one way out Goldilocks & One of 'dem Bears is gonna sprinkle you on his porridge..........
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Money Makes Money
  • #27,198
  • Oct 28, 2013 4:03am Oct 28, 2013 4:03am
If we will be able to break above 61.8 fib level then I would be more confident about the uptrend. Currently looking short opportunities.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,199
  • Oct 28, 2013 4:55am Oct 28, 2013 4:55am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM - will that red 5m hammer with increased volume at the 50% retrace of Friday's range be the turning point? - TWT, meanwhile, I too am flat waiting to see what the London Guys do - assuming that sufficient of them have got through the huge storm that its currently battering the south of the UK.... PS Long 1 unit at 1347.90 after LO PSS Long 1 unit at 1350.20 at 6:06 gmt after retrace to 1350 level / 5m down TL, most EMAs are now geen so looking for a test of todays' high ..... {image} {image}
and we got it, so banked ~$6 after the spike up there in the highest volume so far this morning - which is not a lot! Finished for now, back for NY....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #27,200
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:10am Oct 28, 2013 6:10am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM - will that red 5m hammer with increased volume at the 50% retrace of Friday's range be the turning point? - TWT, meanwhile, I too am flat waiting to see what the London Guys do - assuming that sufficient of them have got through the huge storm that its currently battering the south of the UK.... PS Long 1 unit at 1347.90 after LO PSS Long 1 unit at 1350.20 at 6:06 gmt after retrace to 1350 level / 5m down TL, most EMAs are now geen so looking for a test of todays' high ..... {image} {image}
hi Islander,

IMO the turning point (down) was the subsequent impulse high around 1354.

I'm shorting this 2nd wave down to 1310 area. Probably a zigzag lasting a few days or the week - so multiple stints with a few long scalps too.

edit: good - i just saw your post - you got the high!
cryptocurrency everytime
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