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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,161
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:58pm Oct 25, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Target revised to 1317............. {image}
Premature call, but target still the same.
Money Makes Money
  • #27,162
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:03pm Oct 25, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Premature call, but target still the same.

Target 1317 with a trade taken at what level - and after this close I just posted, with clearly no significant profit taking today,

Even if you shorted 1350 I would have AT BEST a target of 1333.

Likewise I do not see 1317 by any means next week...
Just my view.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,163
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:10pm Oct 25, 2013 7:10pm
Hi everybody, thanks for all the info and your trade setups.

XTrade, just a question, with the release of the Durable Goods Orders (Sep) for US it was positive with a growth of 3.7%, would we have expected the USD to do better and thus Gold move lower, even a little bit yesterday? Or is the relationship with Gold and USD not always in opposite directions?


I am a newbie so excuse if I am using wrong terms etc

Thanks Xtrade and everybody for your valuable input
  • #27,164
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:45pm Oct 25, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Target 1317 with a trade taken at what level - and after this close I just posted, with clearly no significant profit taking today, Even if you shorted 1350 I would have AT BEST a target of 1333. Likewise I do not see 1317 by any means next week... Just my view. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OK. Perhaps I should qualify my post.
IF price does not exceed 1357 & returns to 1340 I expect a small pull back at that level, then a continuation down to 1317. This would be a perfect set for me to then target 1400. Price never goes in a straight line. Retracements are a necessary evil of trading.
Money Makes Money
  • #27,165
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:50pm Oct 25, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} I am interested to know what these \"Targets\" are. Could you please explain them to me in as simple a way as possible? All I can see is what the market tells me it is doing and has done. I am yet to discover a way of predicting the future in the markets. To this end I do not subscribe to the idea that we can tell the fortunes or futures of any market with any degree of amazing accuracy. All day I have been reaiding stories about the market's targets that are way below what it is actually trading at and I cannot fathom why anyone would say,...
OK. Perhaps I should qualify my post.
IF price does not exceed 1357 & returns to 1340 I expect a small pull back at that level, then a continuation down to 1317. This would be a perfect set for me to then target 1400. Price never goes in a straight line. Retracements are a necessary evil of trading.
Money Makes Money
  • #27,166
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:52pm Oct 25, 2013 7:52pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} I'm pretty sure it will go up today.A buy stop 1345 would do the job targeting 1366 .For the retrace we need to wait the new week I guess.Would be around 1323.
Good call.
Money Makes Money
  • #27,167
  • Oct 26, 2013 3:21am Oct 26, 2013 3:21am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} OK. Perhaps I should qualify my post. IF price does not exceed 1357 & returns to 1340 I expect a small pull back at that level, then a continuation down to 1317. This would be a perfect set for me to then target 1400. Price never goes in a straight line. Retracements are a necessary evil of trading.

Agreed, nor do we want a straight line as you said correction is most certainly a healthy part of any trend north or south.

Thus, should we go sub 1340 - I still would keep an eye on 1330/3 and would guestimate that if that level breached price may serve up a ride to 1315/20 area for re-3ntry.

NO guarantees, just as I had said to another person wait on the short from 1350 until at least Friday, to at least see if there is any significant
Profit taking, in the reverse of expectation we ended up making a new monthly high.

So, it is a possibility and I don't think too much of an outrageous trade by any means, yet let the simple price action be your best guide, again, with those,
simple - yet important - S/R levels!


XT-
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,168
  • Oct 26, 2013 3:27am Oct 26, 2013 3:27am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Here you go.You can learn more at trading made simple thread.They dont use much ma but it is ok.Trading 4h charts are easier and bring pips ! {image}
agreed on h4 and anything above, like the daily and weekly!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,169
  • Oct 26, 2013 12:42pm Oct 26, 2013 12:42pm
I most certainly have to rechart it and do some volume analysis which I did not the last time,

Yet it looks like there is still a possibility of the "POTENTIAL" INvERSE H&S on the daily being valid.

I hope to get to it later tonight along with some past position trades I have been looking for.

I erase most of my charts at this point - after saving them for some time and rarely needing to refer to them
and especially after consistently using the weekly much of the Price Action history / trend swings become tattooed into your brain after long enough!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,170
  • Edited 12:57pm Oct 26, 2013 12:50pm | Edited 12:57pm
In an Ideal situation a normal Head and Shoulders- again - IDEALLY

Creates the left shoulder High, dips -> CREATES HIGHER High the HEAD - Dips -> creates a last high lower than both of the previous highs
with the neck slightly tilted upwards for a reversal DOWN.

Which in REVERSE List of above would be a low (S1) ---->, a lower low the head -----> and lastly another low (S2),
lower than the first shoulder low but not as low as the head. With the neck pointing DOWN for a reversal UPski.
and INVERSELY shown on the chart, which at current is exactly what is/has been forming.

Of course they can work sideways on the neck with equal shoulders as long as the head is the highest high with no tilt,
as well as form on smaller TF charts,

YET, I don't usually even focus on anything less than an H4/Daily H&S inverse or normal as we want the pattern to make a reversal in the current trend.

For instance if you have a little baby H&S on the M30 sure it might complete to a TEE and can be traded, yet the amount of profit is FAR smaller than a daily,
ALSO, sure the price might "technically" reverse, yet when your looking at an M15 or an M30 chart how long is a reversal in price going to last?

It could be a matter of hours or a day or two on something like an M15/M30.

On a daily reversal, we would again ideally want the neck to Break in completion of the pattern in an equidistant zone from the top of the head to the neck.
Then, a test of the neck and rejection after, would / should create a new high surpassing the completion point and result in a trend reversal ultimately.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,171
  • Oct 26, 2013 12:53pm Oct 26, 2013 12:53pm
METALS OUTLOOK: Gold Traders Watching $1,350/Oz Level, FOMC For Next Week's Action


Quoting Debbie Carlson
Traders who follow technical charts and those who watch fundamental factors both have something to monitor next week in the gold market, as gold trades around the pivotal $1,350-an-ounce area ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting.
Gold prices rallied this week, supported by a weaker dollar. December gold futures prices on Thursday settled a hair above $1,350, and on Friday managed to shrug off earlier losses to add to a second day of settlements north of $1,350.

December gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,352.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 2.9% on the week. December silver fell Friday, settling at $22.639 an ounce, but up 3.3% on the week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 26 responded this week. Of these, 20 see prices up, while five see prices down and one sees prices sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,172
  • Oct 26, 2013 5:33pm Oct 26, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting XTrade
METALS OUTLOOK: Gold Traders Watching $1,350/Oz Level, FOMC For Next Week's Action {quote} December gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,352.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 2.9% on the week. December silver fell Friday, settling at $22.639 an ounce, but up 3.3% on the week. In the Kitco News [url=http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-25/Higher-Prices-Expected-Next-Week-By-Survey-Participants.html]Gold...
Xtrade, just again wanted to say thank you for your invaluable information. It amazes me how you guys read and understand the charts/fundies.

Just a question, seems like you tend to use the daily/weekly for P/A against S/R levels, is that correct?
  • #27,173
  • Oct 26, 2013 6:16pm Oct 26, 2013 6:16pm
Gold - my thoughts.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold-weekly-25102013.jpg Size: 100 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,174
  • Edited Oct 27, 2013 10:23am Oct 26, 2013 7:22pm | Edited Oct 27, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Olu
Gold - my thoughts. Olu {image}

Hi Olu,

As many here know I don't trade or have any desire to use EW. - NOT THAT OTHERS SHOULD NOT POST OR USE IT - It seems that, that is what your chart is based on? Or maybe I am just thinking so because it looks like waves of PA.!!??

AND BTW GREAT CHART AND EXPLANATION THANK YOU!!!!!!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I like to keep it simple, well, I guess in a sense it's not so simple, but after years it becomes so.

I use for -
TECHS: Support & resistance - Price Action - TLs - and and chart patterns, Fibos, - Like to look at bollinger and some indicators when I need extra confirmation like RSI.
Fundamentals: always watching News, (other commods- Oil, silver, copper, etc) USDX relation with gold, supply/demand if warranted for the metal
FX as a whole, interest rates, etc all the standard stuff.
NEWS - Favorite releases are the NFP, FOMC, Unemployment, GDP, usually the bigger the better for Gold.

So in essence, I like to combine two of the three. Usually techs with fundies.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,175
  • Oct 27, 2013 5:29am Oct 27, 2013 5:29am
Hi XTrade,

I basically use the same technical analysis tools as you mentioned.. and as all economic indicators have already been priced in, news will act as an explosive .

Btw, please find below my short term view of GOLD and USDX.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: _dxydaily.png Size: 61 KB
  • #27,176
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:06am Oct 27, 2013 10:06am
Quoting Olu
Gold - my thoughts. Olu {image}
Yes 1420 is the next tough one...

First the price needs to stay above 1350/3
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,177
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:16am Oct 27, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Rf7
Hi XTrade, I basically use the same technical analysis tools as you mentioned.. and as all economic indicators have already been priced in, news will act as an explosive . Btw, please find below my short term view of GOLD and USDX. {image} {image}

Hi and welcome thanks for sharing.

Yes, news I suppose is really it's own beast, so if one doesn't want to trade it or let a trade ride through it, it is usually best to just stay out.

In any case, looking at your chart if you compare the "steepness" of the old DTLs and the New Up trend line - it is a bit steep.

It may not break right off the bat, especially if sentiment has flipped, but, sooner or later it will likely even out a bit resulting in
one of the two areas you have outlined as horizontal supports.

I'd think 1330 area would need to break for any test to 1315/10 area,
There is also the chance that on pullback from the 1350 area, price then tests 1330 and it holds.

I suppose in the ultimate bullish scenario - gold would have another burst north and then range a bit - giving some time for the gains to pare.

---------------------

Nice USDX chart,

It is clear that there is technical support @ 79.00

although I think the downtrend is in place and it will break there might be a trade to be had in there.

Yet, I am expecting, should things continue- for the Euro to break back into the 1.4XXXs which could easily tip the USDX over 79.

SO, we'll have to wait and see.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,178
  • Edited 11:04am Oct 27, 2013 10:19am | Edited 11:04am
Gold M15 - uptrend EW count

The chart shows three counts: the white count assumes an ongoing downward correction in which the current advance is doomed to turn lower once 1,400 has been achieved. An alternate "ending" for wave 5 is shown in blue - an expanding diagonal.

The red count is my my best effort at trying to make sense of the advance. This count assumes the direction of trend is up (and has been since the end of June). According to this count the current advance is the humble A wave of wave 3 of a monster diagonal heading to new highs.

Either count should undergo retracement to around 1,300 in the next few days.

I've shown the white count since it was my first inclination to count PA like this, but the more I tried to fit the advance into a 1-2-3-4-5 count the more my headache intensified. The wave up is clearly not an impulse - as the channel lines show. Even diagonal doesn't work because of that oversized complex correction in the middle of the wave. My preference is for the red count - and although ABC is not exciting on the face of it - just wait: following a B wave down to around 1,300 should come a C wave that will make jaws drop and eyes pop! If the red count is correct, then we are at the start of a 3rd wave - and as the EWP textbook correctly says - "Third waves are a wonder to behold"

Of course, Goldman Sachs and the banks will probably call for new lows in Gold just prior to said moon-rocket.

The critical level for further advance is 1,375 since this level coincides with the previous decline's B wave high, as well as a descending TL connecting the 2011 top with the 2013 high.

http://ubuntuone.com/56OcKF8GzTPjmjvjsFsDXh
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  • #27,179
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:43am Oct 27, 2013 10:43am
Really good analysis venzen; I was in the middle of also trying to figure out a count for gold as we continue to push forward. In your white count, the length of ii-iii compared to iv-v makes me think that i-ii should be labeled 3-4 and the ED will push higher, as I seem to always try to pick ED 5th's too early and this is exactly where it's easy to do so, but it still looks valid. I'd be inclined to reverse position with a strong downward move but RSI is looking still very bullish up here. I'm currently favouring the ultra bullish 1-2 i-ii count, but only because I'm ultra bullish to 1500+...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #27,180
  • Oct 27, 2013 10:46am Oct 27, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Olu
Gold - my thoughts. Olu {image}

hi Olu,

hope you're well!

I just posted and then noticed your chart. What you show is plausible but consider the tendency of Metals and Commodities to extend their 5th waves. In this case, that late June advance that a lot of people are counting as 3 waves is actually 1234(12345) - a textbook extended 5th. To boot: the recent decline retraced just over 62% of that advance and did so in what can only be described as "corrective" PA - not a motive force down...

The implication is that we have had waves 1 and 2; and are in wave 3 up now! The twist is that it may be a diagonal (count in 3's) and remember the extended 5ths.
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