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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #24,361
  • Aug 15, 2013 11:03am Aug 15, 2013 11:03am
interesting : at inflexion point
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  • #24,362
  • Aug 15, 2013 1:13pm Aug 15, 2013 1:13pm
Here is a new modified channel,

It's good for the PA to open up a bit making the trading range larger, as it has.

In any case, the moving averages on H4 are all offering support now in the form of SMAs 50 100 and 200.

Likewise, the horizontal resistance @ 1275 has now been flipped support and the last dip down to test was clearly REJECTED!

This was a nice clean break of 1350 today and I would venture to guess buy stops were placed in a 5 USD range around the figure @
1320 trendline and MA support area, 1348 and 1353 areas, insuring breaks of 1345 and 1350 respectively,
then BOOM, catapulting the price through 1360 with ease making another high for the day @ 1370.

We look good so far for a close above 1350 weekly.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,363
  • Aug 15, 2013 1:19pm Aug 15, 2013 1:19pm
With further rise, I could see a test of 1400+ in the upcoming sessions before any significant correction or re-entry point.
On the flipside, if my midline is correct, we still run the risk of a test of at least 1350 - before further rise.

longs from sub 1300 should be happy now.

BTW: Rhodium once hit 10,000 USD per ozt.

now it is cheaper than Gold and PT.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,364
  • Edited 5:17pm Aug 15, 2013 5:13pm | Edited 5:17pm
The week is not quite over but you can see gold is near the intersection of longer bear and bull channels (read and blue respectively). Weekly RSI indicated a break in bearish trend the first week of July but has not yet crossed over the 50 line.

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Daily, gold is in a bull RSI channel and above 50 and above bear support. The mid-term bear channel resistance in red (the one from the weekly chart not shown) is at an intersection of the support line (now resistance) of the April and May lows (highlighted in yellow) at the 161.80% extension of the last completed move down. If these two lines are breached there's little expectation for the correction to resume.

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]


The 8-hour chart (apologies for not changing the colours -- I have a colour coding system which make sense to me) shows rising RSI support and a break above channel resistance. Having hit the 127.2% extension, a pull back to the 100% ($1347) is typical followed by a move to the 161.8% (at $1392), likely being a move to the aforementioned support/resistance line. Alternately, moving the Fibonacci up to align the 100% with the 127% (not shown but also has high correlation value) gives the alternate pull back to $1350 (76.4%) or $1339 (61.8%).

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Given those choices I favour $1347 and $1339, though now that gold had breached $1350, increased bullish interest from trend-seekers who've been forced to abandon their bear-biased strategies may push gold higher very quickly so I will look for RSI to pull back to rising support on the 2-hour chart for an entry indication.

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An RSI low on the 5-minute chart, particularly if corresponding with the rising purple trend line, could represent a scalping opportunity for those interested in <$10 moves. Having said that, any bullish momentum could simply take off at this point so personally, I will focus my scalping efforts on Forex.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,365
  • Aug 15, 2013 6:34pm Aug 15, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting TheArcher
the way I see it , where is the H&S or double/triple bottom for it to reverse the downward major trend .... ? or will they never come ...? {image}
I don't like the lack of a definitive bottom either. A "good" bottom or top requires either a retest of that level or price action jumps like a started cat leaving a shooting star candle.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,366
  • Aug 15, 2013 6:49pm Aug 15, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} I don't like the lack of a definitive bottom either. A "good" bottom or top requires either a retest of that level or price action jumps like a started cat leaving a shooting star candle.
I agree. It would be nice to see a double bottom; I am still waiting (impatiently) at the sidelines. But realistically, who would want to go short at this point? Any bear would have to admit this is not the most opportune time to be going short. Am I wrong Sun Trader? Would love a counter view here.

Really wish I had stayed long at 1200, but suppose I really should not look a gift horse in the mouth.

This is could be an opportunity to catch a nice wave long after waiting patiently for (oh) so long.
  • #24,367
  • Aug 15, 2013 6:57pm Aug 15, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting jsr
{quote} Hi, KADC, if I remember correctly, you've had problems with Netdania in the past. A few days ago I found tradingview.com, and I use it for charting DXY, because FXCM has USDOLLAR, but no DXY. I use a free account and it let's me save that chart. It looks nice, maybe you'd like it for charting (stock, forex, future, index). PS:I forgot to mention that it has Renko, Kagi and Point & Figure charts. Just in case...
Thank you, I shall check it out.

I really only use NetDania for posting charts here as my own charts have far too many lines on them to make sense to anyone other than myself. It would be nice, however, to have a secondary charting system that saves charts and is accurate. I use Investing.com charts for my old laptop (NetDania charts stopped working on it) and you can save charts, but it's prone to draw lines randomly outside of the time frame they are originally drawn in and all trend lines are valid across all pairs, so if you have a Fibonacci that spans 99-105 for USD/JPY that same Fibonacci will show up for USD/CAD and any other pair with price within that range.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,368
  • Aug 15, 2013 7:24pm Aug 15, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting Wheels
{quote} I agree. It would be nice to see a double bottom; I am still waiting (impatiently) at the sidelines. But realistically, who would want to go short at this point? Any bear would have to admit this is not the most opportune time to be going short. Am I wrong Sun Trader? Would love a counter view here. Really wish I had stayed long at 1200, but suppose I really should not look a gift horse in the mouth. This is could be an opportunity to catch a nice wave long after waiting patiently for (oh) so long.
You should only make trades you believe in, so try not to get caught up in hindsight thinking else you'll drive yourself insane (and likely make bad trades) thinking about all the money you could have made "if only". There are plenty of other things I'm sure you were successfully trading in the meantime, and there will always be another opportunity to make money.

Today I made the mistake of doing the math on how much money I didn't make by not buying a few thousand more in USLV (3x silver bull ETF) because I never got around to transferring more money into my account back when silver was at $19. Even if I'd bought at $20 I'd be up 40% now (I transferred the money today ...waiting for the next pull back) instead of making $111 in interest last month letting it waste away in my savings account. Being too lazy to make a trade ...that's something to beat yourself up over.

If you're really keen on some die-hard bear thinking, Jamie Seatle (I've spelled that wrong) at DailyFX is still trying to prove gold is bearish, showing all sorts of graphs ...everything except actual price charts. During live seminars he'll acknowledge that his own trading system is telling him price is going higher "in the near term" but he still refuses to take any long positions. As a scalper, particularly one who makes a living giving advice, near term is all he should care about. Still, I always listen to contrary views to at least take the edge of any bias I may have.

Perhaps he's right and someday soon (even though this is the second week of August ...historical the start of gold buying season) we'll see a double top and see the correction continue. A stealth reversal like what started this current uptrend we're experiencing will cost everyone but the die-hard bears a lot of money.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,369
  • Aug 15, 2013 8:33pm Aug 15, 2013 8:33pm
violence in egypt

weak US data

weak USD

...... pushed up gold ?

lets see if it breaks the dark blue resistance .....
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  • #24,370
  • Aug 16, 2013 1:52am Aug 16, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Scalptastic
{quote} If we are unable to break through 1346-1338 resistance zone then I think we will move lower than 1314 {image}
Massive SL got triggered yesterday. Now testing next Resistance zone 1364 - 1370. Might try a short position.
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  • #24,371
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:13am Aug 16, 2013 2:13am
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  • #24,372
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:41am Aug 16, 2013 2:41am
Quoting Scalptastic
{quote} Massive SL got triggered yesterday. Now testing next Resistance zone 1364 - 1370. Might try a short position. {image}
could you explain why it is resistance rather than stating it as fact, as all i see are lines disappearing off your chart to the left. thanks
plus it might help if you posted what timeframe it was. thanks again
  • #24,373
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:20am Aug 16, 2013 7:20am
i have just short gold. any chance of green pips? thanks
  • #24,374
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:27am Aug 16, 2013 7:27am
Quoting NickkiT
i have just short gold. any chance of green pips? thanks
My opinion:
If the bullish break through 1350 means anything, then I would say that a short has limited potential. Depends on what your goal is. Is it a scalp? Is it a long term trade?

On the other hand, if 1350 means nothing, then shorting here could make sense for a range trade.

I saw 1350 as more significant than 1371, but what do others think?
  • #24,375
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:36am Aug 16, 2013 7:36am
I got a chart from a website. so far so good. Shorting to 1310.

good chance?

thanks, some help would be nice hehe
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  • #24,376
  • Aug 16, 2013 7:56am Aug 16, 2013 7:56am
Quoting NickkiT
I got a chart from a website. so far so good. Shorting to 1310. good chance? thanks, some help would be nice hehe {image}
What website? Could you provide more insight?

Sounds a bit like a punt. Are you telling me you found some random website with a post that is not recent and decided to take a 50 pip (short term) trade without any reason?

Do you share this analysis? What are your thoughts? Can you comment on the chart?

I hate to agree with JP Morgan (for contrarian reasons), but they are calling long in general. Not sure what to think about short term technical movement.
  • #24,377
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:12am Aug 16, 2013 8:12am
Quoting NickkiT
I got a chart from a website. so far so good. Shorting to 1310. good chance? thanks, some help would be nice hehe {image}
Dude,

your "chart doesn't even show the move to another high of 1376.

Thus I would say need major reconsideration.

before you lose more money, look at a recent chart.

I would say shorting with a target of 1310 is likely suicide depending on how long you trade.

5 USD swings are always achievable during the day.

Since you are asking as well, whatever the supposed point 5 of this EW chart was has already been blown out by 6 bucks

and judging by your "channel" since price has recaptured many an uptrend line I again maintain on any down move 1350 is key,
with todays minor support @ 1360. to the north the next intermediate target is 1400.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,378
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:16am Aug 16, 2013 8:16am
Quoting Wheels
{quote} What website? Could you provide more insight? Sounds a bit like a punt. Are you telling me you found some random website with a post that is not recent and decided to take a 50 pip (short term) trade without any reason? Do you share this analysis? What are your thoughts? Can you comment on the chart? I hate to agree with JP Morgan (for contrarian reasons), but they are calling long in general. Not sure what to think about short term technical movement.

All good points.

Anyone who has followed this week knows that 1346 to 50 would have to break to safely even consider a short.
If and only if there was a test to 1310/ 25 area, long will likely just re-enter.

This week is closing out in the 1360's above my forecast.

Would be great to see a hold in the 70's but rather it be below the high.

Comex will stop trading in a few short hours then spot.

not too far away.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,379
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:19am Aug 16, 2013 8:19am
Quoting Wheels
{quote} What website? Could you provide more insight? Sounds a bit like a punt. Are you telling me you found some random website with a post that is not recent and decided to take a 50 pip (short term) trade without any reason? Do you share this analysis? What are your thoughts? Can you comment on the chart? I hate to agree with JP Morgan (for contrarian reasons), but they are calling long in general. Not sure what to think about short term technical movement.

Its a china website. i have been following a few to see their trading ideas. Didn't share with anyone, its a weekly analysis. erm.. it cant read chinese so just looking at the charts for references.

Analysis: Since its have 5th Wave is finish at 1373, was hoping to see a corrective wave abc of 38.2% (1303), stop loss above 1373
  • #24,380
  • Aug 16, 2013 8:28am Aug 16, 2013 8:28am
Quoting NickkiT
{quote} Its a china website. i have been following a few to see their trading ideas. Didn't share with anyone, its a weekly analysis. erm.. it cant read chinese so just looking at the charts for references. Analysis: Since its have 5th Wave is finish at 1373, was hoping to see a corrective wave abc of 38.2% (1303), stop loss above 1373

Okay, but maybe you should use more recent price action and adjust targets accordingly.

Clearly this person did not think 1346 (or so) was a relevant resistance level affecting how one should forecast price movement, but even the guy who has repeatedly kept my bullish bias in check (Sun Trader) saw some significance in this level.

I think it makes sense to be cognizant of what is happening (seasonal trade, JPM calls, break through 1346, etc...) when making a trade. That said, you may be rewarded. There is no telling. I would not personally feel comfortable with that trade.
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