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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,181
  • Jan 9, 2013 9:48am Jan 9, 2013 9:48am
Quoting ivars
The reason in price fall, if anyone interested:

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43837

Short term USG deficit reduction may require smaller borrowing. That is how market reads it. In my opinion, it will just prolong the debt ceiling negotiations time line and thus uncertainty period for the USG debt development ( and hence fiat Money supply world wide).
There is a difference between a "reason" and an "excuse" - imho you have pointed to the excuse, whereas the reason is more likely to be the level of the 200 day MA.....

beeb
  • #22,182
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:04am Jan 9, 2013 10:04am
Quoting ivars
The reason in price fall, if anyone interested:

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43837

Short term USG deficit reduction may require smaller borrowing. That is how market reads it. In my opinion, it will just prolong the debt ceiling negotiations time line and thus uncertainty period for the USG debt development ( and hence fiat Money supply world wide).
The CBO MBR came out yesterday. The markets react immediately to these releases so I must respectfully disagree.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,183
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:15am Jan 9, 2013 10:15am
Quoting beeb
There is a difference between a "reason" and an "excuse" - imho you have pointed to the excuse, whereas the reason is more likely to be the level of the 200 day MA.....

beeb
I have the 200 DMA at $1669 (US spot using the misnomered "ProfessionalChart"). Did you perhaps mean the 200 period moving average on the hourly chart, because gold is definitely reacting to the 200 and 50 at that time scale, or is ProfessionalChart (I'm at my old laptop and that's my only option here) giving me bad data?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,184
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:32am Jan 9, 2013 10:32am
Quoting KADC
The CBO MBR came out yesterday. The markets react immediately to these releases so I must respectfully disagree.
I did not know that. Then its just as you say. That is better. Thanks.
Hope we are getting inverse head and shoulders than on 5 min chart.
  • #22,185
  • Edited 10:47am Jan 9, 2013 10:32am | Edited 10:47am
Quoting KADC
I have the 200 DMA at $1669 (US spot using the misnomered "ProfessionalChart"). Did you perhaps mean the 200 period moving average on the hourly chart, because gold is definitely reacting to the 200 and 50 at that time scale, or is ProfessionalChart (I'm at my old laptop and that's my only option here) giving me bad data?
GC 200 Day MA is 1662.6 according to my systems....

beeb

EDIT - my comment was not in relation to eg a 10min chart, but to the general idea that some entities would like to see price kept below that benchmark average....
  • #22,186
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:49am Jan 9, 2013 10:49am
Quoting beeb
GC 200 Day MA is 1662.6 according to my systems....

beeb
I will trust your chart over this so-called "ProfessionalChart" that alters trend lines drastically when you change time frames, but it's the only charting system I have found that will still work on this old computer which I use to keep an eye on things when I'm not "working". It's good to have confirmation that it's unreliable (not that I'd ever considered using it for determining targets anyway) but seriously, how do you screw up the math on a moving average, the formula for which has been available since at least the '70s and probably much longer?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,187
  • Jan 9, 2013 11:03am Jan 9, 2013 11:03am
Quoting KADC
I will trust your chart over this so-called "ProfessionalChart" that alters trend lines drastically when you change time frames, but it's the only charting system I have found that will still work on this old computer which I use to keep an eye on things when I'm not "working". It's good to have confirmation that it's unreliable (not that I'd ever considered using it for determining targets anyway) but seriously, how do you screw up the math on a moving average, the formula for which has been available since at least the '70s and probably much...
This is H4, but has SMA(200.D1) (MVA as Marketscope names it) current value 1660.84 (bid) 1661.54 (ask) Odd, since spread is 50pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau-h4-20130109.png Size: 67 KB
  • #22,188
  • Jan 9, 2013 12:40pm Jan 9, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting KADC
XTrade (and others) have been talking about a cup and handle pattern here for weeks as well.

A link makes sense for the Dean Malone information since it's someone else's work, but when you're posting here in this forum XTrade has created for our benefit you should post your actual gold and silver ideas (as you have done and I've appreciated in the past) and leave the self-promoting link in your signature.

I'm sure anyone who finds what you have to say valuable will want to check out your blog.
Thanks for this info.

Are you able to let me know when the 'Cup and Handle' was first discussed at all please? Here and on XTrade. Thanks for any help you can offer here.
  • #22,189
  • Jan 9, 2013 1:22pm Jan 9, 2013 1:22pm
In Early march the 200 MA for both silver and gold will move up till April. Interesting, would it mark a support or resistance then. I think it will be above 33 by the end of this period. These dates- beginning of April- coincide with projected potential trend change close to quarterly expiration- March 25th, 2013 - as concluded from this chart:


http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/commen...comment-257196
  • #22,190
  • Edited 2:59pm Jan 9, 2013 2:07pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting TradeSpotting
Thanks for this info.

Are you able to let me know when the 'Cup and Handle' was first discussed at all please? Here and on XTrade. Thanks for any help you can offer here.
Well it was around 11octt post 21302

beeb
  • #22,191
  • Jan 9, 2013 2:59pm Jan 9, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting beeb
Well it was around 28sept post 21185.

beeb
Thanks beeb!
  • #22,192
  • Jan 9, 2013 5:12pm Jan 9, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting ivars
In Early march the 200 MA for both silver and gold will move up till April. Interesting, would it mark a support or resistance then. I think it will be above 33 by the end of this period. These dates- beginning of April- coincide with projected potential trend change close to quarterly expiration- March 25th, 2013 - as concluded from this chart:


http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/commen...comment-257196

The 10-year, 20-year and 30-year seasonal charts shows gold peaking at the end of February, May, September, and November. Longer charts show July and December peaks as well.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9769...trongest-month

http://charts.equityclock.com/gold-f...seasonal-chart

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html


It's worth mentioning that, at least in recent years, the end of March is when Yen pairs fall (in favour of the Yen, including USD/JPY) compared to US$ pairs which fall in (favour of US$) at the end of April, demonstrating that you cannot rely on gold to behave as either risk-on or risk-off currencies and thus you should not rely on them as indicators.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,193
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:10pm Jan 9, 2013 10:10pm
If she takes 1750 soon, I wouldn't count on a reversal, and I would be very wary of shorting.
you will likely see accelerated buying when this happens.
after a meager dip perhaps.

Quoting _BBKing_

i will be looking to short gold into 1700 again (1700 to 1750) and prints a reversal pattern again.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,194
  • Jan 9, 2013 10:12pm Jan 9, 2013 10:12pm
GREAT POST! I have tried to articulate this so many times before!

So true. Even gold at times should be considered it's own animal from lil sister silver.

Quoting KADC
The 10-year, 20-year and 30-year seasonal charts shows gold peaking at the end of February, May, September, and November. Longer charts show July and December peaks as well.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9769...trongest-month

http://charts.equityclock.com/gold-f...seasonal-chart

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html


It's worth mentioning that, at least in recent years, the end of March is when Yen pairs fall (in favour of the Yen, including...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,195
  • Jan 9, 2013 11:56pm Jan 9, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting XTrade
If she takes 1750 soon, I wouldn't count on a reversal, and I would be very wary of shorting.
you will likely see accelerated buying when this happens.
after a meager dip perhaps.
it is forming a wedge patern and consolidating @1650 next short term target 1682
  • #22,196
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:18am Jan 10, 2013 2:18am
Quoting KADC
The 10-year, 20-year and 30-year seasonal charts shows gold peaking at the end of February, May, September, and November. Longer charts show July and December peaks as well.
So one of likely scenarios is a peak in Feb after slow January, then back down to March 25th region but with higher bottom (30, xx) , then reversal of trend up again within the longer term continuation triangle that ends in May-June 2013.

So far I have now taken this as basis for midterm trends. If silver does not break 34 earlier than May.

Well i hope silver seasonal patterns are relatively similar..have to check.
  • #22,197
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:59am Jan 10, 2013 2:59am
If ECB cuts rate, cant it have an impact on Gold and Silver.
  • #22,198
  • Jan 10, 2013 3:51am Jan 10, 2013 3:51am
updated my XAU USD charts. find it at this youtube link (7 minutes video)

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #22,199
  • Jan 10, 2013 4:23am Jan 10, 2013 4:23am
SI 20 shown previously gave a perfect entry at the second red circle off a perfect sp support:

http://www.screencast.com/t/ffQvfBEruzS

beeb
  • #22,200
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:47am Jan 10, 2013 5:47am
Hmm... gold and silver has been climbing for the past 12 hours or so continously...And its now 1665 area. Is this for real...
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