Dislikedit's worth bearing in mind that the precious metals are manipulated markets and the technicals are often "designed" to give an impression...
beebIgnored
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #22,142
- Jan 7, 2013 1:40am Jan 7, 2013 1:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
in ur opinion, how good is pitch fork in this manipulated gold and silver market ?
Forks work for me otherwise I would not use them
beeb
- #22,143
- Jan 7, 2013 1:59am Jan 7, 2013 1:59am
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts
Forks work for me otherwise I would not use them
beeb
- #22,144
- Edited 4:24am Jan 7, 2013 2:58am | Edited 4:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
1625
- #22,149
- Jan 7, 2013 7:05am Jan 7, 2013 7:05am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
my deep respects to the Guru !
my many humble thanks for this very loaded reply !
I do not want anyone to follow me - just want to cut through the bull and get people thinking for themselves.....
beeb
The silver price is basically at the initial point of break if we use that line. ALSO - look at how well that rising TL has been respected on the weekly, I would rather see a slow and steady rise to 50 rather than the blowout up that we had and then a steep crash. Even with the crash the RISING TL is STILL intact, this to me spells further bullish continuation. Also the symmetrical triangle again, if we use that broken line and consider the current price a test before moving higher, should be considered a continuation of the current longer term,...
There might be a spectacular dip just before bull breakout. So I am waiting for current rebound to hopefully move into 31,5-32 to cover and then look where the price moves next. It will oscillate, I am absolutely sure. There is still a reminder of April and September 2011 impulse crash energy left in silver.
- #22,151
- Jan 7, 2013 5:53pm Jan 7, 2013 5:53pm
A lot of comments and charts over the weekend, but I'd like to address the concerns of the fellow that got banned as I think a lot of people share his frustrations when they don't see the predictive nature of certain areas of technical analysis.
Let's just look at trend lines since that's basically what he had a problem with. I've got two sets of bull and two sets of bear trend channels at the daily level at the moment. The bear channels are just from the correction whereas my bull channels go back to 2009. It's hard to demonstrate in a screenshot or describe briefly in words, but this is more-or-less the method I use to identify channels and how I used them and shouldn't be taken as how you are "supposed" use trend lines if your method is different.
You start by finding two trend lines that are parallel which indicates you have correctly identified a trend channel or, alternately, you draw an Andrews pitchfork. If the former, you draw parallels the same distance apart above and below which become likely targets where price action will react when your channel is breached, and in the case of forks you subdivide for price action within your forks and clone your pitchfork to expand outside of it. Either way, eventually you will end up with something similar to these:
My primary bear channel.
One of my bull channels.
Ideally, you want to identify how the two interact to make your, and to that end I've got simplified charts of the two scenarios I think are most likely based purely on channel interaction.
In "gold plan A" you can see where the equidistant parallels of my bull channel crossed my bear channel at key reversal points 1, 2, 3, 4, making the circle around $1715 the next target, and if the bear channel isn't breached, the circle around $1595.
In "gold plan B" you can see my alternate bull and bear channels interact, though primarily only as far as resistance is concerned, giving me one target around $1660 and another around $1625 which I forgot to draw a circle around.
Obviously (at least is should be obvious) points where more trend lines converge, including Fibonacci and prior significant support and resistance levels, the more likely these targets are to be hit, and this is why charts do more than simply connect points after price action has already occurred.
Let's just look at trend lines since that's basically what he had a problem with. I've got two sets of bull and two sets of bear trend channels at the daily level at the moment. The bear channels are just from the correction whereas my bull channels go back to 2009. It's hard to demonstrate in a screenshot or describe briefly in words, but this is more-or-less the method I use to identify channels and how I used them and shouldn't be taken as how you are "supposed" use trend lines if your method is different.
You start by finding two trend lines that are parallel which indicates you have correctly identified a trend channel or, alternately, you draw an Andrews pitchfork. If the former, you draw parallels the same distance apart above and below which become likely targets where price action will react when your channel is breached, and in the case of forks you subdivide for price action within your forks and clone your pitchfork to expand outside of it. Either way, eventually you will end up with something similar to these:
My primary bear channel.
One of my bull channels.
Ideally, you want to identify how the two interact to make your, and to that end I've got simplified charts of the two scenarios I think are most likely based purely on channel interaction.
In "gold plan A" you can see where the equidistant parallels of my bull channel crossed my bear channel at key reversal points 1, 2, 3, 4, making the circle around $1715 the next target, and if the bear channel isn't breached, the circle around $1595.
In "gold plan B" you can see my alternate bull and bear channels interact, though primarily only as far as resistance is concerned, giving me one target around $1660 and another around $1625 which I forgot to draw a circle around.
Obviously (at least is should be obvious) points where more trend lines converge, including Fibonacci and prior significant support and resistance levels, the more likely these targets are to be hit, and this is why charts do more than simply connect points after price action has already occurred.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #22,157
- Edited 8:44am Jan 8, 2013 8:25am | Edited 8:44am
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,013 Posts
- #22,160
- Jan 8, 2013 9:13am Jan 8, 2013 9:13am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
Just do homework, choose any year after US president elections in the past and see, how about 4-6 months of new elected year gold goes down and eur/usd go down
How does this fit with your argument :
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...plode%E2%80%9D
beeb