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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #641
  • Sep 16, 2012 8:27am Sep 16, 2012 8:27am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Global Stocks-Market.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Chart I (linear & monthly candles-format) as U.S. S&P/500 Ind (a megalithic neverending diamond ???).
Chart II (linear & weekly ema-format) as r-spread vs. NYSE World Leading Ind.
Yellow-lines as Multiple 10mo. average: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann and the December Low Rule, for these benchmarks.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
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  • #642
  • Sep 17, 2012 12:04pm Sep 17, 2012 12:04pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Global Stocks-Market.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes on main graphical structures of U.S. S&P/100 Ind.
Chart I is a linear & monthly ema-format; chart II is a linear & monthly candles-format; yellow-lines as Multiple 10mo. average (sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma).
Notes are on the charts.
According to previous feb.2012 charts, the bullish-cup 2011/2012 (see the gray-area on two charts) shows a price-target in candles-format as 734$. In monthly ema-format the target is on the chart.
The dark-red area (520/580$ about) is a main multiple set-up zone among some Fib-levels (see sx Fib-scale) vs. a giant diamond apex vs. some main horizontal levels vs. some giant priceXvolumes. Is this area the main pivot for the structural switch bull/bear of this benchmark ???

► Previous charts/studies.
S&P 100 & 500: july.2010-- oct.2010 -- dec.2010 -- july.2011 -- july.2011 -- feb.2012 -- feb.2012 -- sep.2012.
Barclays Benchmarks: sep.2012.
NYSE Comp.: oct.2010 -- sep.2012.
iShare Funds on MSCI Indexes: EWG -- EWI -- EWL -- EWO -- EWP -- EWQ -- EWU.
SMI: june.2010 -- sep.2012.
FTSE/100: oct.2010 -- sep.2012.
CAC/40: june.2010 -- sep.2012.
PSI/20: sep.2012.
IBEX/35: june.2010 -- sep.2012.
DAX/perform.: oct.2010 -- sep.2012.
BEL/20: sep.2012.

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann and the December Low Rule, for these benchmarks.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
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  • #643
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:18am Sep 19, 2012 11:18am

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Some notes/charts about ⒶⒶⓅⓁ.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...N%3AUS&img=pnghttp://i1-news.softpedia-static.com/...ttsburgh-2.jpg
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

► REUT-Fin.Data -- Fin.Data -- FINVIZ-Fin.Data -- BARCH-Fin.Data -- GOOG Fin.Data -- ZACK Fin.Data -- Y-Fin.Data -- SEC -- Owners -- Insiders -- Short-data -- Options -- Analysts -- NEWSbyGOOG.

► Previous charts/studies: 2011; apr.2012; apr.2012; apr.2012 (long-term waves); mag.2012.
► RSI, MACD, RoC -- Slow Stock., DMI, Slow Volat. -- Monthly.

The hyperbolic stock shows a second (see red arrows) full-ascending test of main & hard ascending lines !!!
Alert from the long-term wave structure, because of triple 10X-target from 1985.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.[/size]
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
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  • #644
  • Edited 12:34pm Sep 21, 2012 12:28pm | Edited 12:34pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Au/Cu.
http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndDat...01&dt=20210921
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous jan.2011 study.

In this post there are some notes about the r-spread (see notes below) between Gold vs. Copper (Au/Cu), a metal-spread about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
In the chart I there is an historical & not-complete curve of this r-spread.
In the chart II there is the r-spread with World Bank data.
In the charts III & IV there are the linear ema-format of this metal r-spread, in order to evaluates the structural trend.
The main graphical elements are the followings.
-) Curve shows a bearish global-array, as we can see both from descending tops & lows, and from the red descending channel. In short term there are some interesting divergences vs. underlyings, as we can see from 2010/2011 lows and 2010/2012 tops of curve !!! Moreover, actual ema-array of chart IV is bullish.
-) The first key ascending-line is the link between lows of 1970/1989 (blue with square-markers) with its parallels.
-) The second key ascending-line is the link between lows of 1970/2006 (violet) and its parallels. These lines are well coincidents with the gray-zones (see below).
-) Two gray-zones appear as the main r-spread pivots (Upper gray-level: lows of 1980, 1981, 1982, 1985; tops of 1988, 1993, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2011, 2012. Basal gray-level: lows of 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2004, 2011), with two ''monster''-breaks in 2006 and 2009.
-) Giant bullish cup with the neck level based on 2003-tops (yellow line), with a price-area of 330$ (weekly ema-format) or 290$ (daily ema-format).

According to simply ema-format, there are the following targets of above structures:
The down-target of gray-zone (only with curve consistently & persistently below the basal gray-area) is 144$, not obtained in the SellOff of 2006 (180$ about !!!).
The up-target of gray-zone (only with curve consistently & persistently above the basal gray-area) is 750$, in full-test of previous ''80 double tops !!!
The giant bullish cup shows a target (only with curve consistently & persistently above the neck yellow-line of 2003-tops) of 830$, with the break of previous curve-tops from 1980 !!!

Curve in continuation-bull above the blue binary lines, increase the probability of indicator-values well above the yellow-neck, with two structure in bullish action, both gray-rectangle and giant cup.
Curve below the blue binary line, increase the probability of a new descending test of set-up between basal gray-zone vs. violet-binary.
The multiple set-up marked with green rectangle on price-axis is the probable GraphicalƉetonator of the simply ema-format of this indicator.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.[/size]
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
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  • #645
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:23am Sep 24, 2012 8:23am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about HealthCare Insurance.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous charts/study.

In this chart there is the d-spread between Health Insurance Uncovered Rate vs. Covered Rate, for U.S.A.
The curve, available as yearly data (up-date: 2011), shows a continuation-bull of this indicator (abount contrarian to employment level).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=89331
  • #646
  • Sep 25, 2012 10:24am Sep 25, 2012 10:24am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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The link between schools and house prices is now an established fact
pdf-link --- FB-link
https://fbcdn-profile-a.akamaihd.net...80478963_n.jpghttp://ppgpictures.files.wordpress.c...ses1.jpg?w=640https://fbcdn-profile-a.akamaihd.net...80478963_n.jpg

Steve Gibbons describes how a series of influential studies from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the LSE has confirmed the widespread belief that a link exists between house prices and the quality of local schools. He goes on to explain the nuances of the findings and the significance they hold for public policy surrounding education, cities and social mobility.

It is a truth universally acknowledged in the chatter of middle class dinner parties in Britain that good schools push up house prices. Stories of anxious parents buying or renting at inflated prices in the catchment areas of well-regarded schools are commonplace. But before CEP’s research on this issue began more than a decade ago, there was almost no British evidence to back up these anecdotes.

In a series of widely quoted studies, CEP researchers have been at the forefront of efforts to bring rigorous evidence on the scale of these effects into the public domain. Thanks to this work, the link between schools and house prices is now an established fact. What’s more, this finding has a significant influence on both education policy – including measures to improve poorer children’s access to good schools – and private sector behaviour – for example, the way that estate agents present property details.
.............................................................

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #647
  • Sep 26, 2012 3:07am Sep 26, 2012 3:07am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


In this post there are some simply US-House curves, in order to evaluates the Real Estate Business.

✔ SOLD HOUSES
-) The ''Total New Houses Sold'' curve shows an about complete MeltDown from top of 2005 (125/130k) to low of 2010/2011 (20k !!!). This 1/6.5 collapse has showed an important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying benchmarks, in top formation; low formation is in-progress and it is below the previous bottoms from 1960 !!!
-) The ''not-Started New Houses Sold'' curve shows an about monster-MeltDown, because of difference between recent top-low (about 53-4k = 1/13 collapse; 2004-2010/2011), with a more anticipatory behaviour on top formation, but without new bottoms from 1960 !!!
-) The ''Under-Construction New Houses Sold'' curve shows a chart like to previous two curves: a) great difference between recent top-low (about 48-5k = 1/9.5 collapse; 2005-2010/2011); new bottoms from 1960 !!!
-) The ''Completed New Houses Sold'' curve shows a little difference between recent top-low (about 34/9k = 1/3.8 collapse; 2006-2010/2011), but new important bottoms from 1960 !!!
* The ''not-Started New Houses Sold'' curve has showed the best anticipatory behaviour (top in 2004 !!!) for House sector crisis in US (see also the difference top-low or the ration top/low).

✔ For SALE HOUSES
-) The ''Total New Houses for Sale'' curve shows an in-progress MeltDown from top of 2006 (570k) to actual low of 2012 (150k !!!), with a collapse of 1/4, an important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying benchmarks, in top formation, and actual lows well below the previous bottoms from 1960 !!!
-) The ''not-Started New Houses for Sale'' curve shows an in-progress MeltDown from top of 2006 (105k) to actual low of 2011/2012 (22k !!!), with a collapse of 1/5, an important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying benchmarks, in top formation, and actual lows well below the previous bottom of 1998 !!!
-) The ''Under-Construction New Houses for Sale'' curve shows an in-progress MeltDown from top of 2006 (330k) to actual low of 2012 (65k !!!), with a collapse of 1/5, important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying benchmarks, in top formation, and actual lows well below the previous bottoms from 1970 !!!
-) The ''Completed New Houses for Sale'' curve shows an in-progress MeltDown from top of 2008 (200k) to actual low of 2012 (35k !!!), with a collapse of 1/5.7, none anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying benchmarks, in top formation, and actual lows well below the previous bottoms from 1970 !!!
* The ''Houses for Sale'' curves shows an impressive & continuous decline also in 2011-2012, a sign of dramatic & historic weakness of the U.S. Houses.

✔ AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES
The ''Average Price of Houses Actually Sold'' and ''Average Price of Houses Actually Sold, Land Including'', shows that the actual bear-phase is the largest decrease of the two charts; moreover the curves are in continuation-bear toward the previous 2009-lows !!!
*There is a concrete alert for new lows of House Prices, if the continuation-bear of curves does not stop.

✔ New Houses Median n. of Months for Sale
-) The top of 1975 is an important key-level in order to recognize sistemic (curve above) or local (curve below) difficulties in the housing sector; actual value are above this level as in '80 & '90 bullish-phases.
-) The main tops are in ascending-array, with last top about 4X from 2006-lows or 1.45X from the previous top of '80-decade !!!
-) The curve, on a historical basis, shows that the prices quoted by dealers are out of business, because over-estimated compared to the demands and opportunities of the market; this causes a real illiquidity at 4-5mo., of the housing sector.
-) In 2007, we can see the bullish-rupture of the red-channel started from the top of '80 decade.
-) Actual values are above the previous '90 tops, are above 1975-top level, are inside the thin & blue ascending channel, are in full ascending test of the blue-binary lineas of main ascending rectangle, with the construction of an important area multiple set-up area (pink-area).
*A continuation-bull of curve above the pink-area, is a very dangerous sign for the liquidity of the house sector, with great increase of financial stress inside this sector. Only with values of curve well below the pink-zone there will be an important decrease of financial stress for the liquidity of house sector

✔ VALUE OF CONSTRUCTIONS
-) The ''Total Value of Construction put-in-place'' curve shows an important SellOff from the recent tops-lows (2006-2011), with a full-descending test of 50% level, with a continuation-bear in action !!!
-) ''Residential'' curve shows a more impressive SellOff vs. ''Total'' curve(lows from 2002); ''not Residential'' is like to ''Total'' curve behaviour.
-) ''Pivate'' curve shows a more impressive SellOff vs. ''Total'' curve (well below 50% level); ''Public'' shows a curve behaviour well above 50% level !!!
-) The breakdown of the index ''Total'' in different sub-indexes, shows us how only three sub-indexes have a curve in bullish-array, after the recent decline: Healthcare; Transoprtation; Highway & Street. The sub-indexes Office & Commercial are very negative. Water-Supply sub-index is in a possible SellOff-phase.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
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  • #648
  • Sep 26, 2012 3:54am Sep 26, 2012 3:54am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two indicators of US Real Estate compared to family income in order to obtain and sustain a mortgage.

Housing Affordability Index (Composite). - Measures the degree to which a typical family can afford the monthly mortgage payments on a typical home. Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment. For example, a composite housing affordability index (COMPHAI) of 120.0 means a family earning the median family income has 120% of the income necessary to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80 percent of a median-priced existing single-family home. An increase in the COMPHAI then shows that this family is more able to afford the median priced home.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2011-11-24
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2012-09-26

Housing Affordability Index (Fixed). - Measures the degree to which a typical family can afford the monthly mortgage payments on a typical home. Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2011-11-24
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2012-09-26

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=49152




Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #649
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:33pm Sep 29, 2012 12:33pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some U.S. Houses price indicators (in Seasonal & not-Seasonal Adj. format).

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-29,2012-09-29

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-29,2012-09-29


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #650
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:35pm Sep 29, 2012 12:35pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some U.S. Houses price indicators (in Seasonal & not-Seasonal Adj. format).

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-29,2012-09-29

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=77471


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #651
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:38pm Sep 29, 2012 12:38pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some U.S. Houses price indicators.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2012-09-29


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #652
  • Sep 29, 2012 2:30pm Sep 29, 2012 2:30pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous jan.2012.

In this post there are some U.S. Houses price indicators published on MacroMarkets.
The baseline trend is derived by extrapolating the average rate of index growth before 2000,
the year when prices in many real estate markets began appreciating at unprecedented and unsustainable levels.
Gap measures the percentage difference between a current index level and its corresponding baseline level.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 671 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 680 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 670 KB
  • #653
  • Oct 1, 2012 2:27am Oct 1, 2012 2:27am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous U.S. House Sector Indicators: House Prices & Subindexes (sep.2012: A -- B -- C -- D -- Affordability Index -- Subindexes) -- Spreads (lug.2011)

In this post there are some r-spreads curves of US-Houses sector (about 'in-phases' vs. House prices; not-Seasonal Adj. values), in order to evaluates the Real Estate Business (see ''notes on spread indicator'' below).
These indicators belonging to the family of House Indexes ''New Houses by Stage of Construction''.

not Started Sold vs. for Sale
There is a triple-heads monster on top (red circles), with important bearish effect at the break of blue ascending channel (2005), in wonder set-up with white channel (squares-marked).
Actual bullish leg, from the 2009 lows, is a simple recovery-leg until to the base of the 3-heads monster (lows of 1997-2004 about: yellow zone).
This is confirmed by the price-action inside the hard descending channel from top of 3-heads monster.
Actual 2009-lows are a little above the historical lows of curve; summer 2012 values are well below the top of '80-decade !!!
Important signs for a possible bullish reversal of the structural of this indicator, are the followings (about linked graphical events):
a) curve well above the hard descending white rectagle;
b) curve well above the white ascending rectangle (squares-marked);
c) curve well above the yellow zone of 1997-2004 lows.
A possible GraphicalƉetonator is the pink-area.

Under Construction Sold vs. for Sale
There is an important double-tops '80 vs. '90 decades (red circles) of this ''very volatile'' indicator.
Actual bullish leg, from the 2009 lows, is a little below the '70 decade tops, and well above the yellow zone (lows of 1997-2004 about), two important signs of structural bull of the curve.
This is confirmed by the price-action well above (and confirmed above) the hard descending channel from tops.
Actual 2009-lows are about in-line with the historical lows of curve !!!
This indicator shows a structural bullish-array, until to value will be well below the yellow-zone.
The possible GraphicalƉetonator zones are: pink-area; yellow-zone.

Completed Sold vs. for Sale
Curve structure similar to previous ''Under Construction''.
The possible GraphicalƉetonator is the pink-area.

Total Sold vs. for Sale
There is an irregular triple-heads monster on top (red circles), with important bearish effect at the break of blue ascending channel (2005), in set-up with yellow zone (lows of 1997-2004 about).
Actual bullish leg, from the 2009 lows, is in full-ascending test of the triple set-up ''yellow zone vs. ascending blue vs. hard descending channel from tops''; this is a very important graphical test for a reversal in bullish status of this indicator.
Actual 2009-lows are in-line vs. historical lows of curve !!!
Curve in continuation-bull above the pink-area (a possible GraphicalƉetonator) is an important sign for the stress decrease inside this indicator.

Note
These indicators shows some signs of reversal attempts of U.S. Houses from the giant bear on the prices, in particular for the r-spreads ''Under Construction'' & ''Completed ''. The curve ''not Started'' shows again important bearish-array, and ''Total'' shows an intermediate graphical situation.
The ''Average Curve'' shows a full-ascending test of the key set-up zone for the reversal in bullish-status !!! With curve in continuation-bull above the pink-zone, there will be a completion of reversal.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 413 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 427 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 391 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 445 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 434 KB
  • #654
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:45am Oct 2, 2012 4:45am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous U.S. House Sector Indicators: House Prices & Subindexes (sep.2012: A -- B -- C -- D -- Affordability Index -- Subindexes) -- Spreads (lug.2011 -- sep.2012).

In this post there are some notes about a contrarian indicator of house prices: the r-spreads between '' Total New Privately-Owned Housing Authorized but not Started '' vs. '' New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits '' & '' Total New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started '', in order to evaluates the Real Estate Business (see ''notes on spread indicator'' below).
The main graphical elements are the followings.
A) Two giants descending-channels (white & red-squared), based on key tops & lows of chart.
Curve is inside these two channels and for this reason the indicator is in structural side-bearish array.
B) Descending red-line, linking the two key-tops of '70 & '90 decades, and its parallels.
The hard bearish-array was broken when the curve went above the main red-line (2002/2003 about: blue-circle), with an important reversal of the secondary trend in bullish-status !!!
This reversal went well above the previous tops of '80 & '90 decades, forming a Pyroclastic-leg, with top during 2008/2009, the formation of a blue ascending channel, and a bullish gray-cup (theoretical target as the dx. gray-column).
C) Ascending blue-line, linking the two key-tops of '90 & '00 (2009) decades, and its basal parallel.

The continuation-bull of curve inside the blue channel maintain activated the gray-cup target (with possible tests of tops of chart !!!).
Only with the curve (consistently & persistently) below the blue channel, there will be a new bearish leg for the indicator with a new important decrease of financial stress inside houses sector.
Belows the two lows '60 & '80 decades, there will be the collapse of indicator.
This indicator is in a dangerous border-line graphical phase (see also previous ''spreads study'') on the basal border of blue channel.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 718 KB
  • #655
  • Oct 3, 2012 4:34am Oct 3, 2012 4:34am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some comparative curve between the house prices for some main U.S. States & U.S.A.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52296
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52306
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52307
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52308

This chart is the d-Spread between main US States (averaged value for California, Florida, New York, Texas) vs. USA, in Home Price Index.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-26_2011-08-26

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #656
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:45am Oct 4, 2012 7:45am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is a r-spread indicator, about contrarian to U.S. House Prices, as follows:
'' Median Number of Months on Sales Market for Newly Completed Homes (not Seas.Adj.) '' vs. '' All-Transactions U.S. House Price Index (not Seas.Adj.) '' [Chart 'A'] or vs. '' S&P Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index (Seas.Adj.) '' [Chart 'B' for comparative curve-behaviour purpose].

The main graphical elements are the followings.
-) The curve has been above the main descending rectangle during the Pyroclastic event of 2008/2010, and now is in a ''pull-back like'' structure on the upper level of this rectangle.
-) Same situation for the second (white) main rectangle.
-) The Pyroclastic event of 2008/2010, moves within an ascending blue rectangle, the first ascending & important rectagle from 1975 !!!
-) Top of 2010 is about in-line vs. the previous '90 decede top (markers as blue-squares) !!!

Curve above the key triple set-up (pink-circle), will result in a new phase of illiquidity of the U.S. house sector !!! The first and second targets are marked with pink-area. Above these target (consistently & persistently), there will be the start of a giant (dark-purple) cup, with a possible SkyRocket of indicator (see dark-purple column on dx: houses collapse ???).
A continuation-bear well below the key triple set-up (pink-circle), will result in an important decrease of liquidity-stress inside houses sector.
According to curve behaviour vs. pink-circled 3-set-up, this indicator is in a dangerous border-line graphical phase (see also previous ''spreads study A & B).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 555 KB
  • #657
  • Oct 6, 2012 10:51am Oct 6, 2012 10:51am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about US House Sector.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous U.S. House Sector Indicators:
-) House Prices & Subindexes (sep.2012: A -- B -- C -- D -- Affordability Index -- Subindexes -- Regional-Data).
-) Spreads (lug.2011 -- sep.2012 -- sep.2012 -- oct.2012).
-) Previous House prices vs. Au (aug.2010).

In this post there is a r-spread indicator, about contrarian to U.S. House Prices, as follows:
'' Gold Fixing (10:30 A.M., London time; US$; not Seas.Adj.) '' vs. '' All-Transactions U.S. House Price Index (not Seas.Adj.) '' [Chart 'A'] or vs. '' S&P Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index (Seas.Adj.) '' [Chart 'B' for comparative curve-behaviour purpose].
For comparative purpose there are also 4 additional charts: C1 & C2 (Au vs. House and its inverse); D1 & D2 (Ag vs. House and its inverse).

The main graphical elements are the followings.
-) From historical top of curve, the indicator has broken the main descending (red) lines, with a price-behaviour in 9 bearish legs.
-) The global price-evolution is inside a giant side-descending rectangle (thin-white), based on the link between two key lows of chart.
-) There is a giant bullish (gray) cup in action, based on the II top of '80 decede (target as dx. gray-column).
-) There are also two ascending (blue) channels, the bold (linking two key tops of II half '80-decade vs. 2011/2012), and the thin-squared; the thin-squared shows a price-evolution in 7 complete legs and the VIII 'in-progress'.

There are two GraphicalƉetonators, as follows.
1) Pink-square zone & near cone (triple set-up): curve (consistently & persistently) above this 3-set-up is a very negative event for the U.S. house value, with a great advantage for Au-assets; prices in continuation-bear below this 3-set-up, but above the neck of giant (gray) cup, do indicate a simple recovery of houses and gold evaluations but without break of main trend.
2) The neck of giant (gray) cup: curve (consistently & persistently) below this level is an important sign of main trend reversal of strength between components, with U.S. House >> Au.

Is this SkyRocket phase (start from 2002 about) completed (7 legs, with no new historical top !!!) ???
Or this phase will be completed with 9 legs (target of giant cup) ???
A continuation-bull of curve inside the ascending thin-squared channel is in favor of this second pattern; only below this blue channel there will be the probable break of neck-(cup)-line !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 660 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 935 KB
  • #658
  • Oct 6, 2012 11:22am Oct 6, 2012 11:22am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about ⒶⒶⓅⓁ.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...L%3AUS&img=pnghttp://i1-news.softpedia-static.com/...ttsburgh-2.jpg
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

► REUT-Fin.Data -- Fin.Data -- FINVIZ-Fin.Data -- BARCH-Fin.Data -- GOOG Fin.Data -- ZACK Fin.Data -- Y-Fin.Data -- SEC -- Owners -- Insiders -- Short-data -- Options -- Analysts -- NEWSbyGOOG.

► Previous charts/studies: 2011; apr.2012; apr.2012; apr.2012 (long-term waves); mag.2012; sep.2012.
► RSI, MACD, RoC -- Slow Stock., DMI, Slow Volat. -- Monthly.

The previous alert has a gain of more 50$.
I remamber that thee hyperbolic stock has showed in september (see study) a full-ascending test of some main & hard ascending lines !!!
Moreover in september there was the near test of the 720$-level (a critical target for the company), and the triple 10X-target from 1985 (see the long-term wave structure).
Alert on the next key-levels (weekly ema-format): top fo april 2012; lows of april & july 2012 !!!
See also this interesting chart.

Watch also the January Rule and the December Rule for AAPL.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
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http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1[/quote]
  • #659
  • Edited 11:49am Oct 12, 2012 8:50am | Edited 11:49am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous Commodity Indexes: A -- B -- C -- G.S.C.I.
► G.S.C.I. data: Index (CME data; R.T. data; ETF (chart & data).

◢ CHART IN MONTHLY BARS
The key graphical elements are the followings.
The first 30y of curve (from start '70 decade to 2004) we can see a giant side-rectangle (gray-zone as 'X') with a descending-array of key-tops (1974>1980>1990>2000), and a price evolution in 7 waves from top-1974.
The crossing of upper 'X' level in 2004 resulted in the instant-target 2'X' in 2005.
In 2007 a SkyRocket-phase pushes the curve at 3'X'-target and above, also above the 4'X'-target !!!
During the bi-monthly spike of 2008 at 900$ level (about 7 times the lows of 1998/1999), there was almost the ascending test of the main blue structural rectangle (upper-level).
The global waves structure from '99/'01 lows, shows 5 main legs with the III divided in five sub-legs.
The post-2008 top phase shows a collapse of index, with a stop only on the upper-level of 'X'-rectangle, with a next bull-phase (2009/2011) toward the 2'X' & 3'X' levels.
The actual price-evolution (2011/2012) shows a megalithic set-up: a giant gap-down in 2008 vs. 3X vs. red descending line vs. ascending thin blue rectangle (hard slope).
Note.
The main array of curve is in bullish-status, but the secondary trend (from 2008-top: see descending red-lines) is in bearish-status.
Values (consistently & persistently) above the megalithic set-up fire index (new historical tops !!!).
Values (consistently & persistently) below the megalithic set-up, will cause the following action: target/I 2'X'; target/II ascending (binary) base of blue rectangle; upper level of 'X'; below this last level there will be a probable index-MeltDown.

◢ CHART IN LONG-TERM EMA-FORMAT.
This chart well shows the actual megalithic phase (set-up of above) with che lateral evolution inside the yellow circle (2012).
Alert for a valid bearish or bullish evolution of this phase (see previous circled phases).

◢ Average Indicators.
MACD, TRIX & PPO, shows a bearish array of lows 2010/2011/2012, in divergence (in part) vs. index !!! Tops of indicators are 'in-phase' vs. index.
These indicators confirm the lateral & waiting phase on the index, with a negativity on the structure of the recent lows.

◢ CHART OF rSPREAD Au vs. G.S.C. INDEX.
This chart (in daily & linear long-term ema-format) is for comparative purpose only. Use it as a curve in order to compare your preferred benchmark to obtain information.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
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  • #660
  • Oct 18, 2012 5:00am Oct 18, 2012 5:00am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about U.S.$-Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous long term study & oscillators.

Notes, for short-mid term (5y) on the chart attached.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
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