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  • #361
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:41am Feb 27, 2012 3:41am
Quoting Custos
Well, at one point systems will stop working no matter how you change the win-rate & R:R, cause there is not enough profits available per trade to cover the trading costs per trade.
That is why the time-frame matters for any system.
Custos I am just interested in making money not proving I am right all the time, chill mate.
  • #362
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:43am Feb 27, 2012 3:43am
Quoting jag1966
Custos I am just interested in making money not proving I am right all the time, chill mate.
No need to calm me down. I never got heated up in the first place. Just discussing a very relevant subject with you guys.
  • #363
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:51am Feb 27, 2012 3:51am
Quoting Custos
Well, at one point systems will stop working no matter how you change the win-rate & R:R, cause there is not enough profits available per trade to cover the trading costs per trade.
That is why the time-frame matters for any system.
If you are blindly trading a mechanical system without factoring in market conditions, trading times, and other relevent factors, then of course, profitability will decrease over time.

A good trading system should function across a wide spectrum of conditions, and it should also key you in you when not to trade.

For example, if the 30/15M starts chopping and you have no clear signal on these TFs, the 5M obviously would become a higher risk, so you should know not to take a signal on that time frame because momentum is leveling out above it.

An important part of working any system properly is also knowing when not trade it.
  • #364
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:10am Feb 27, 2012 4:10am
Quoting jag1966
Happy trading mate.

You too mate.
  • #365
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:21am Feb 27, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Fudomyo
If you are blindly trading a mechanical system without factoring in market conditions, trading times, and other relevent factors, then of course, profitability will decrease over time.
agreed, except if the mechanical system already incorporates all these things.
Quoting Fudomyo
A good trading system should function across a wide spectrum of conditions, and it should also key you in you when not to trade.
totally agreed.
Quoting Fudomyo
For example, if the 30/15M starts chopping and you have no clear signal on these TFs, the 5M obviously would become a higher risk, so you should know not to take a signal on that time frame because momentum is leveling out above it.
An important part of working any system properly is also knowing when not trade it.
also agree with that. But my point was more, that with any system you have to think about how much your trading costs per trade are and how much the time-frame really offers for the system you are trading.
Just because a system works great on the M30, doesn't mean it can work on the M5 (when factoring in trading costs). That was my whole point.
  • #366
  • Edited 9:41am Feb 27, 2012 9:25am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Custos
But my point was more, that with any system you have to think about how much your trading costs per trade are and how much the time-frame really offers for the system you are trading.
Just because a system works great on the M30, doesn't mean it can work on the M5 (when factoring in trading costs). That was my whole point.
I was talking about a system that utilizes the 5M timeframe for trading. You can have chop on the higher TFs, which often creates ideal range trading conditions on the lower TFs. But you need decent momentum on the TF directly above the TF you're trading otherwise there's a greater potential for price failure. (thus, if the 15M is scattershot, I avoid trading the 5M)

I use the 5M as my main trading time, and the 15M and higher TFs for reference. If we get a trending move and I have a good entry, then I sometimes step up TF as the move progresses, but taking profit on a lower TF move is often preferable with my current system.

Booking profits is key. A 10-20 pip reversal is nothing in the market. It's a different mindset than Swing trading. Today I've been trading mostly GY EY since Asia session (in both directions). If you open up your 5M GY chart, over the 300 point move, there were ample opportunites in both directions. I do higher TF analysis as part of my trading, but holding out for SR targets isn't my main interest. I'm more goal driven in capturing a certain number of pips inside the move, and don't try to squeeze every pip out.

Cheers

.
  • #367
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:40am Feb 27, 2012 10:40am
Quoting Fudomyo
I was talking about a system that utilizes the 5M timeframe for trading. You can have chop on the higher TFs, which often creates ideal range trading conditions on the lower TFs. But you need decent momentum on the TF directly above the TF you're trading otherwise there's a greater potential for price failure. (thus, if the 15M is scattershot, I avoid trading the 5M)

I use the 5M as my main trading time, and the 15M and higher TFs for reference. If we get a trending move and I have a good entry, then I sometimes step up TF as the move progresses,...
Another vouchworthy post full of wisdom, read and learn folks.
  • #368
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:48am Feb 27, 2012 11:48am
Quoting Fudomyo
I was talking about a system that utilizes the 5M timeframe for trading. You can have chop on the higher TFs, which often creates ideal range trading conditions on the lower TFs. But you need decent momentum on the TF directly above the TF you're trading otherwise there's a greater potential for price failure. (thus, if the 15M is scattershot, I avoid trading the 5M)

I use the 5M as my main trading time, and the 15M and higher TFs for reference. If we get a trending move and I have a good entry, then I sometimes step up TF as the move progresses,...
nice approach!
  • #369
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:03pm Mar 6, 2012 12:03pm
30 pips a day would be fine for me
  • #370
  • Mar 6, 2012 2:48pm Mar 6, 2012 2:48pm
yea i know a few friends in forex making over 10% a month with no problems and that is what i am trying hard to reach my self as well!
  • #371
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:58am Mar 13, 2012 10:58am
ultra-high return expectation will kill your account.
first to do is lower the return rate under a reasonable level.
  • #372
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:26am Mar 13, 2012 11:26am
Quoting daminghu
ultra-high return expectation will kill your account.
first to do is lower the return rate under a reasonable level.
And what is a 'reasonable level'? Averaged out per day, is it 1% a day account growth? 2%...0.5%...0.1%...0.01%?
  • #373
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:22am Mar 21, 2012 6:22am
Quoting jeanlouie
And what is a 'reasonable level'? Averaged out per day, is it 1% a day account growth? 2%...0.5%...0.1%...0.01%?
Take 1050 Euros (my account size)
Make 10 % weekly /compound
You have 101868 after 1 year.
After that, if you keep it up and compounding, you should be able to have dinner with "Warren" (Buffett), soon.
Excell donīt lie...
  • #374
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:29am Mar 21, 2012 6:29am
Quoting cuchuflito
Take 1050 Euros (my account size)
Make 10 % weekly /compound
You have 101868 after 1 year.
After that, if you keep it up and compounding, you should be able to have dinner with "Warren" (Buffett), soon.
Excell donīt lie...
OH I forgot something!
If you live in Europe, and they pass that sweet Tobin Tax any time soon, then....not even excell will save you/us ...game over...unless you trade the year chart, enter the monthly chart, and live another 500 years to collect your profits.
Check this thread for clarification.
Tobin Tax Effect on Forex
  • #375
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:45pm Mar 21, 2012 4:45pm
hey guys - new to trading and im most interested in forex trading as Ive heard of friends of friends making a living from this and it does interest me.... anyone know where I can go to get some good education on this? Im limited with $$$ so i dont want to spend too much, if anything at all...
  • #376
  • Mar 24, 2012 5:11am Mar 24, 2012 5:11am
www.babypips.com is the staple forex education that almost all traders go through first, that will give you the basis

Quoting nu2trading
hey guys - new to trading and im most interested in forex trading as Ive heard of friends of friends making a living from this and it does interest me.... anyone know where I can go to get some good education on this? Im limited with $$$ so i dont want to spend too much, if anything at all...
  • #377
  • Edited 1:34am Apr 19, 2012 1:21am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting nubcake
this thread annoys me enough to bring me out of my cave because it's the same tired old garbage being spewed over and over from years ago...

some of the thinking here is so shortsighted and depressing! you know what... no one makes money trading. no one can beat inflation. no one can beat the interest earned in a savings account. we should all aim to remain poor and scraping 0.0001% per annum. surely this is all we deserve from all of the time spent (wasted) dedicated to being a profitable trader. there are no profitable retail traders....
Just found and read your post Nubcake and have to say

BRAVO and WELL said..... we get all this sort of crap at pitbull (can't be done, is stupid, wont work, your dumb, personal insults and worse) and its all just a bunch of OPINIONS which are cheap..... not from you of course.

Great post.
  • #378
  • Apr 21, 2012 5:02pm Apr 21, 2012 5:02pm
Cuchoflito, you're right excel does not lie. A simple =.10^52 * 1050 does the job. That should make us all appreciate what we have at our disposal.
The levels you punch up on excel, no one will get to within that period of time. After all, we are pulling money out to live.
Any rate, I wrote this post in kind of a hurry. I'll have to post a little later my equity curve to show what 150%+ in 2 months looks like.

BTW, I don't know what the big deal is with eating dinner with Warren Buffet. He still puts his pants on the same way I do. He's worth a lot more money than I am, but then he has more headaches. Personally, I'd rather eat dinner with the wife, dog, and 16 grandchildren anyday Rats! Now I gave away my age--lol.

Let me add that the more you make, the more conservative you get with your money management. Nevertheless, with compounding and all, your point is valid.


Quoting cuchuflito
Take 1050 Euros (my account size)
Make 10 % weekly /compound
You have 101868 after 1 year.
After that, if you keep it up and compounding, you should be able to have dinner with "Warren" (Buffett), soon.
Excell donīt lie...
  • #379
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:08am Apr 22, 2012 8:08am
Without picking on anyone, I would appreciate if my question can be answered.

For the pessimist,

Is it because you are in red or bordering it that you find the idea of 10% per month is ridiculous?

For the optimist,

Is it because you have done it or seen it done before that you believe the idea of 10% per month is realistic?

Take this example. A hedge fund manager has 5m at his disposal, 5% of that would be 250k. But does that mean he will scalp with a 1% risk? Mind you that is the possibility of losing 50k within minutes. Or is he likely to risk 0.1% in a week which is 5k on a long term position which he has a chance to scale out of if things turn ugly?

Or the average retailer and his 10k account. He makes 8% a week, which is $800 risking 2% per trade. Compound that for 52 week, he would probably make a million. But at 100k, do you think he still has the "guts" to trade 2% risk? Or would he scale down? And in a volatile market such as forex, he is likely to be a scalper, do you think he can survive a bad run? Or at one point would he lose his discipline?
  • #380
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:33am Apr 22, 2012 8:33am
Quoting jayjb
Without picking on anyone, I would appreciate if my question can be answered.

For the pessimist,

Is it because you are in red or bordering it that you find the idea of 10% per month is ridiculous?

For the optimist,

Is it because you have done it or seen it done before that you believe the idea of 10% per month is realistic?
I think for most it's an unrealistic return, but if you found a good system it is definitely possible.
Quoting jayjb
Take this example. A hedge fund manager has 5m at his disposal, 5% of that would be 250k. But does that mean he will scalp with a 1% risk? Mind you that is the possibility of losing 50k within minutes. Or is he likely to risk 0.1% in a week which is 5k on a long term position which he has a chance to scale out of if things turn ugly?
5 Mio. is nothing in the hedge fund world. Many heavy weights have billions of dollars in their funds. a loss of 50K means nothing.
Having said that, I read that 95% of the hedge funds out their lose money for their clients. Amazing how that figure is not only related to retail traders but also to professionals.

Quoting jayjb
Or the average retailer and his 10k account. He makes 8% a week, which is $800 risking 2% per trade. Compound that for 52 week, he would probably make a million. But at 100k, do you think he still has the "guts" to trade 2% risk? Or would he scale down? And in a volatile market such as forex, he is likely to be a scalper, do you think he can survive a bad run? Or at one point would he lose his discipline?
Why should he? Would a business owner, only because his company's net income quatrupled in the last few years suddenly withdraw the money from his company? Scale it down, because it runs too well and the company is earning too much money now? Sounds ridiculous in the case of a business owner, and it should as well sound ridiculous for successful traders.

My personal opinion on scalping is that it is a very inefficient approach, cause the net profit per trade is just incredibly low and in most cases cannot overcome the trade costs per trade.

And lastly, most traders will lose discipline on a bad run. Cause of that, they will even get into further losses and eventually stay in the loser category.
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