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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #12,801
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:20am Nov 4, 2011 10:20am
Quoting ddinnov
Careful folks, EUR is falling off a cliff...
And DXY is rallying.
  • #12,802
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:25am Nov 4, 2011 11:25am
Quoting SunTrader
And DXY is rallying.
.... and them 10yr Italian bond yields I was saying about before... are on the way up... Euro down as expected (that deal was always a piece of crap waiting to be unpicked from day 1, no surprises there) so USD DXY on way up as expected... off the back of being the best pick for now of a bad bunch

Only thing is I was of the mind that once this happened ie Euro down, DXY up, we would see the dip in Gold... now ... not so sure, everything is a little on its head.. so now am mainly in cash...

This week I caught the wave up from 1720 , sold out at 1750 - 1760 , where at which point I opened a few shorts from 1750-60 , still open now... though may close out before weekend stops play.. have also a Long open from 1760 sl/1680
Had a good run also on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY thanks to the BoJ
been a good week, a long good week, this weeks trading/reading time in excess of 90 hours, I really need some sleep.

98% of deployable capital for Gold currently held in cash waiting to go... I am going to sit on the sidelines for now..


Also curious to see what happens with MFGlobal and the upcoming margin calls/liquidation
  • #12,803
  • Nov 4, 2011 7:24pm Nov 4, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting Sreym33
I don't know about those bears, maybe a bear trap!...check out the upside-down head and shoulders pattern that has formed... maybe need $50 to finish it off from 1750 to 1800. Also, we need a 3rd leg up to finish the waves.
You got My vote.
I'm Long with a Tight Stop.
Yight Stop Were? ... ... ...
Bemac
  • #12,804
  • Nov 4, 2011 8:24pm Nov 4, 2011 8:24pm
CME at it again. Armageddon?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-go...ial-everything
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #12,805
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:01pm Nov 4, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
CME at it again. Armageddon?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-go...ial-everything
Thanks for this - might have to change my long to a short - ugh!!
C.
  • #12,806
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:06pm Nov 4, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting CathS
Thanks for this - might have to change my long to a short - ugh!!
C.
=

98% of deployable capital for Gold currently held in cash waiting to go... I am going to sit on the sidelines for now..


Also curious to see what happens with MFGlobal and the upcoming margin calls/liquidation


=

Yep... thats one of the reasons I am all in cash right now... though maybe a few more cheeky short trades or two will be added monday
  • #12,807
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:25am Nov 5, 2011 3:25am
I'm glad I'm flat, last time they hiked margins there was a massive dip, even if it's only temporary. Reading more about it here:

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=95949

and here:

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...oss-board.html

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...intenance.html

There seems to be a liquidity shortage due the the MF thing..

Quote
In communications with my broker this evening he suggested that this might be a way for the CME to let some of the firms accepting accounts from MF Global off the hook from attempting to make one margin call after another and attempt to complete a huge number of bank wire transactions in such a short period of time.

Quote
I am not trying to be sensational here; rather I am attempting to work through the implications of all this especially seeing that it is coming in on the heels of a $630 million shortfall with MF Global. Some 15,000 accounts or so have been transferred thus far. I cannot even imagine the efforts involved by brokerage firms attempting to sort through all these new positions on their books because of the transfers and gauge margin requirements against what is left of their remaining account balances. Some of these firms might be thinking it is just easier to liquidate everything that these newly transferred accounts have and then start with a clean slate. A maintenance margin hike to initial margin requirement levels will make it very easy to justify such an approach.
Anything can happen.
  • #12,808
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:38am Nov 5, 2011 4:38am
ascending wedge on silver daily chart.Volatility is expected int he coming days
Attached Image
  • #12,809
  • Nov 5, 2011 12:55pm Nov 5, 2011 12:55pm
Not all futures contracts are involved.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-396.pdf
  • #12,810
  • Nov 5, 2011 1:00pm Nov 5, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting SunTrader
Not all futures contracts are involved.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-396.pdf
is this mean this is not for GOLD AND SILVER and its not effect in gold?
Trading by EA
  • #12,811
  • Nov 5, 2011 1:47pm Nov 5, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
Not all futures contracts are involved.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-396.pdf
This one affects all futures:
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-399.pdf

Maintenance margin will be equal to initial margin
  • #12,812
  • Nov 5, 2011 2:19pm Nov 5, 2011 2:19pm
I missed my TP by a Blonde one but didn't change anything.
I'm following the ICCE Diags & think I may be rewarded early by Asia.
I'm also VERY interested if I do get pumped out with Profit that It may have some more Rise in store.
Then I will get back in on the Long Side.
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Bill
  • #12,813
  • Nov 5, 2011 2:57pm Nov 5, 2011 2:57pm
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-400.pdf


see this one interesting
Trading by EA
  • #12,814
  • Nov 5, 2011 6:07pm Nov 5, 2011 6:07pm
Quoting yg10
This one affects all futures:
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-399.pdf

Maintenance margin will be equal to initial margin
That was issued before the advisory I posted which overrides it. See also post by mmudasir with further details.
  • #12,815
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:03pm Nov 5, 2011 9:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
Not all futures contracts are involved.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...hadv11-396.pdf
silver is...

Tell me this doesn't look like buyers, cuz the last free fall was caused by a margin hike.. therefore, no shorting positions, just buyers closing positions.

Now buyers are already in the market.. they are going to get a margin call, and it is likely to see commodities drop.

Pbh
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  • #12,816
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:59pm Nov 5, 2011 9:59pm
Bias: Bullish

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381
  • #12,817
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:22pm Nov 5, 2011 10:22pm
I am still in SI long but I want to see this get some traction this week and make a run to the 36's - I think this week is key for Gold & Silver.
  • #12,818
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:32pm Nov 5, 2011 10:32pm
does anybody thinks that on Monday, Silver has a chance to go up?
  • #12,819
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:41pm Nov 5, 2011 10:41pm
Quoting hareanone
does anybody thinks that on Monday, Silver has a chance to go up?
Because right now i am heavily short silver. So i just want to make sure i cover my bases lol.

a hike to 100% means an unbelievable crash in silver and gold IMO
  • #12,820
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:14am Nov 6, 2011 12:14am
Quoting Pbh
silver is...

Tell me this doesn't look like buyers, .......
Your arrow is pointing to the wrong bar.

Margin announcement was on Sept 23 effective Sept 26th.

And no I don't agree PA since looks like buyers.

Daily chart with Tom DeMark indicator TD Pressure shows declining movement into Silver. Both Silver and Gold have had lackluster participation ever since their respective tops so once again barring anything dramatic in EuroZone besides ho hum Greece defaulting, which will happen at some point, I just don't see higher prices developing.

I also don't expect a big drop to $1000 or something crazier but I do believe the direction for the foreseeable future is that way.
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