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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #12,781
  • Nov 2, 2011 9:42pm Nov 2, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting XTrade
Bemac!
---------------------------
C'mon, repost, the "eaten post."
Farg... I have a really tough time renaging on requests asked by friends.
OK. 30:8 Money Management.

History:
I was a Private Fund Trader.
Had ~ 3.5 Mill at my disposal.
Developed a {"No WIPE OUT"} method that could prevent me from having to stand up in front of the investors {pretty hard hitting Business w/men} and say...
It's gone. Sorry. Good luck in your future.

The 30:8 Rule:
No more than 30% of Account exposed to Margin. Inclusive of ALL Open Trades.
No more than 8% OF THE TOTAL 30% exposed to One Market.
I consider FX as One Market.
Run the Numbers. (Mine are Old {10-15 years or so} but ) I still like them & apparently, so do some others.

We see Posts reccommending a 2% Risk Max.
Try this.
Multiply 30% x 8% = 2.4%
Hmm. I think I like these guys...

More to follow.
Risk is a Scary Scenario.

B
  • #12,782
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:08pm Nov 2, 2011 10:08pm
Very wise counsel, Sir Bemac, my cargo would be far greater had I followed this earlier
  • #12,783
  • Nov 2, 2011 11:54pm Nov 2, 2011 11:54pm
Just above the main top channel line. The overspill line is in red and may be a bit off due to it being drawn on the weekly,

The yellow dashed is the median or center line. Basically a good no trade zone,
and is completely off on the daily. Don't know why MT4 can't handle the lines correctly between the two.

There is the bottom channel line in blue and there is another over spill or dip line
somewhere below.

In any case price is stuck right atop the top channel line and is up against some stiff resistance noted in blue.

Likely, there may be a test, in the upcoming sessions, but the same way when gold sells off and respects no S/R, this rez area will likely be broken via high volume breakout.

Not worried about any head and shoulders. US is not fiscally well just like places in the EU zone. There are problems everywhere.

People are losing money in investments, while some count the dollars on holding gold. Your choice.

Still gunning for 2k and above.

For tonight, perhaps a pullback to support around a small interim level like 1715. Or sideways motion. In the event of a pullback look for potential breakouts to come, depending on PA and headlines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau nov 2nd.GIF Size: 51 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #12,784
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:57am Nov 3, 2011 4:57am
Quoting Bemac
Farg... I have a really tough time renaging on requests asked by friends.
OK. 30:8 Money Management.

History:
I was a Private Fund Trader.
Had ~ 3.5 Mill at my disposal.
Developed a {"No WIPE OUT"} method that could prevent me from having to stand up in front of the investors {pretty hard hitting Business w/men} and say...
It's gone. Sorry. Good luck in your future.

The 30:8 Rule:
No more than 30% of Account exposed to Margin. Inclusive of ALL Open Trades.
No more than 8% OF THE TOTAL 30% exposed to One Market.
I consider FX as One...
I feel like this would be helpful to start a thread with this post. I am terrified of margin trading, as potential losses are infinite, but with the 30:8 rule I might start.

I feel like I have read everywhere but here that the large gold mining companies (Barrick and Newmont) are in a good position to go long on. Gold is going to stay above 1650 for the foreseeable future and their fundamentals are very strong.

http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/ma...-miners-104246
  • #12,785
  • Nov 3, 2011 6:28am Nov 3, 2011 6:28am
Quoting XTrade
Just above the main top channel line. The overspill line is in red and may be a bit off due to it being drawn on the weekly,

The yellow dashed is the median or center line. Basically a good no trade zone,
and is completely off on the daily. Don't know why MT4 can't handle the lines correctly between the two.

There is the bottom channel line in blue and there is another over spill or dip line
somewhere below.

In any case price is stuck right atop the top channel line and is up against some stiff resistance noted in blue.

Likely,...

O NOOOOOOOOOOOO...., I have shorts at 1727????
  • #12,786
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:00am Nov 3, 2011 7:00am
Quoting XTrade
Just above the main top channel line. The overspill line is in red and may be a bit off due to it being drawn on the weekly,

The yellow dashed is the median or center line. Basically a good no trade zone,
and is completely off on the daily. Don't know why MT4 can't handle the lines correctly between the two.

There is the bottom channel line in blue and there is another over spill or dip line
somewhere below.

In any case price is stuck right atop the top channel line and is up against some stiff resistance noted in blue.

Likely, there may...
agreed....heavy resistance around 1760....will prob bounce down off of 1760....maybe even back towards 1700....then up again....but if it breraks thru the 1760....I think we should see a strong move upwards. stilll have my 2 buys open from previous trade...they are positive now....they are riding with a 600 pip ($6) trailing stop.....once they hit 1200pips($12) in profit....then will switch the trailing stop to 1200....and look for a good take profit point. otherwise will just let them ride.
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #12,787
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:03am Nov 3, 2011 7:03am
Quoting pipslonging
O NOOOOOOOOOOOO...., I have shorts at 1727????
Ehhh...you may be ok.....don't panic yet. I know...easy for me to say

See what the 730am cst news brings...you also got more news 830 and 9am.....by 10-11am cst....you should have a good idea if it is shooting to the moon....or it is going to range down to 1700.
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #12,788
  • Edited 7:29am Nov 3, 2011 7:10am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting pipslonging
O NOOOOOOOOOOOO...., I have shorts at 1727????
looking at the daily chart....it llooks like it will go back down at some point to the 1700 area....on the bottom line of the channel....so you should be ok to ride out the negative....provided of course you have enough equity in your account to ride the loss out.

also gold is still moving in the same directions as the us stock markets....I would expect a shoot to the moon and a break on gold if the us markets start dropping.

I would take profit though on your sell trade at 1713....that was one of the fib resistance levels.
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #12,789
  • Nov 3, 2011 12:30pm Nov 3, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting pipslonging
O NOOOOOOOOOOOO...., I have shorts at 1727????
Hi and welcome, I hope you are covered,
but relax, the 1760 - 70 ish area is hard to breach.
Looking for a nice sell right now, altough this type of pattern is hard to bring down. so i need double confirmation, target is 1750 - 40.
ultimate target would be 1740 - 1730 zone but that could be too much


S.
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #12,790
  • Nov 3, 2011 1:41pm Nov 3, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting Shaggy_rock
Hi and welcome, I hope you are covered,
but relax, the 1760 - 70 ish area is hard to breach.
Looking for a nice sell right now, altough this type of pattern is hard to bring down. so i need double confirmation, target is 1750 - 40.
ultimate target would be 1740 - 1730 zone but that could be too much


S.
1700 still on the table.
But its gold.We can have 1800 and we can have 1600 next day
  • #12,791
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:05pm Nov 3, 2011 7:05pm
This post will link you to the previous chart I posted.

Here is the new one for today. Volume looks steady and strong. Dips seem to be snatched up at any chance so far.

Let's see if we can GUN through the blue line before the weekend.....

Edit - Notice for increased support the 200 DAY SMA is basically the same as the LTL of the channel in light blue.
SMA = dark blue.

Quoting XTrade
Just above the main top channel line. The overspill line is in red and may be a bit off due to it being drawn on the weekly,
blah blah blah blah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAU _ Nov 3rd.GIF Size: 51 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #12,792
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:12pm Nov 3, 2011 7:12pm
Fellas,

I wouldn't be short minded right now personally. (still long at 1600 area.)

Look at the three YELLOW ARROWS on my chart and the reaction AND the volume.

---------------

Again, you may catch an off day down 20 or 10 bucks, but the money will likely lie in the longs until the new high is created.

Then the rollercoaster will likely start again.

Be careful.

X
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #12,793
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:16pm Nov 3, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting XTrade

Let's see if we can GUN through the blue line before the weekend.....
...I think there is a high probability that it will because I expect the data coming out of the US tonight (non-farm payrolls etc) to be good, but more reliable info is that the release of this data makes me too cautious (chicken) to enter at this stage, so you can count on profits that I will miss out on!! Good luck
  • #12,794
  • Nov 3, 2011 9:31pm Nov 3, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting CathS
...I think there is a high probability that it will because I expect the data coming out of the US tonight (non-farm payrolls etc) to be good, but more reliable info is that the release of this data makes me too cautious (chicken) to enter at this stage, so you can count on profits that I will miss out on!! Good luck
Better safe than sorry...good demeanor to have cath
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #12,795
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:15pm Nov 3, 2011 11:15pm
Cath, the saying is "when in doubt stay out" good self control.

However, if you see a dip and you feel comfortable on it jump in.
Just remember this is a marathon, not a sprint.

Start small also if you need to, nothing wrong with winning small positions,
winning is winning. Trade micros, you can still make money,
ie: a 10 USD move = 10 bucks, so a 100 USD move = 100 bucks,
now the nice part is gold swings 20 bucks in a day easy,
thus, I'm sure on a .01 (one micro) trade a 50 USD stop with proper entry won't blow your account, then if we trend for 300 cash out, and you are 300 bucks richer, with a lot less stress...

Nothing like 300 is going to happen overnight either, so be patient.
Good trading to you


Quoting CathS
...I think there is a high probability that it will because I expect the data coming out of the US tonight (non-farm payrolls etc) to be good, but more reliable info is that the release of this data makes me too cautious (chicken) to enter at this stage, so you can count on profits that I will miss out on!! Good luck
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #12,796
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:23pm Nov 3, 2011 11:23pm
Thanks heaps X, if only I had you in my ear when I started, although I guess if I hadn't blown so much on big trades I wouldn't have learnt anything......???

Patience is not something I am good at but this advice reinforces the need for it to be successful long term as a trader - a small profit is better than none, and if I am only trading small amounts I will only lose a small amount if it goes wrong, in stark contrast to my efforts in the past!!

cheers Cath
  • #12,797
  • Nov 4, 2011 7:22am Nov 4, 2011 7:22am
There are bearish butterflies on H4 and daily....so technically I expect it to go down.
however if 730am cst usd news is negative for usd it should go up....but since euro is in disarray and there is demand for usd....bad news for usd may make gold go up...never know these days.

anyway I am itching for a trade (bad idea) so I am going to be a little risky....and wait for a retrace after the news and enter a small buy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau daily.gif Size: 41 KB
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #12,798
  • Nov 4, 2011 8:08am Nov 4, 2011 8:08am
Quoting dogbreath
There are bearish butterflies on H4 and daily....so technically I expect it to go down.
however if 730am cst usd news is negative for usd it should go up....but since euro is in disarray and there is demand for usd....bad news for usd may make gold go up...never know these days.

anyway I am itching for a trade (bad idea) so I am going to be a little risky....and wait for a retrace after the news and enter a small buy.
You want to buy? You just said it's full of bearish butterflies?
Well for me i just got behind my screen, didn't get much out of this exept my second sell target taken at 50

For now i only see down trended channels, price is still in it, but i don't know looks kinda fishy.

Here's a pic , this is how i trade..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldt.jpg Size: 203 KB
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #12,799
  • Edited 8:28am Nov 4, 2011 8:15am | Edited 8:28am
I don't know about those bears, maybe a bear trap!...check out the upside-down head and shoulders pattern that has formed... maybe need $50 to finish it off from 1750 to 1800. Also, we need a 3rd leg up to finish the waves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,800
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:01am Nov 4, 2011 9:01am
Careful folks, EUR is falling off a cliff...
Anything can happen.
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