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  • #261
  • May 6, 2011 1:21am May 6, 2011 1:21am
Quoting nubcake
which is another way of saying something similar to what i said about 2 years ago (give or take)....
agreed!
  • #262
  • May 6, 2011 10:55am May 6, 2011 10:55am
Quoting Platypus
Hey Doug whats up!?! Last time I heard from you you seemed to be on the same illusion boat...no...?

Well anyways hope you learned your lesson, all traders have to mature sooner or later and accept reality.

I would advise those genius out there ( and they seem all to flock here at FF) to go trade for a hedge fund. If you make 10% per month, again 10% per month you can trade for GS have a six figure salary and a bonus on the end of 4TH quarter that can very well be on the double digits ending with a M.

But hold on........people...
  • #263
  • Edited 11:27am May 7, 2011 5:59am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting Platypus
Hey Doug whats up!?! Last time I heard from you you seemed to be on the same illusion boat...no...?

Well anyways hope you learned your lesson, all traders have to mature sooner or later and accept reality.

I would advise those genius out there ( and they seem all to flock here at FF) to go trade for a hedge fund. If you make 10% per month, again 10% per month you can trade for GS have a six figure salary and a bonus on the end of 4TH quarter that can very well be on the double digits ending with a M.

But hold on........people...
If You don't like it then why are You here?
To share Your 20 years of experience in bank funds?
Recognize somebody's well-meaning. Newbies (like myself) are learing by heart from that traders .
RichieEU
  • #264
  • May 7, 2011 9:12am May 7, 2011 9:12am
Quoting Platypus
Hey Doug whats up!?! Last time I heard from you you seemed to be on the same illusion boat...no...?

Well anyways hope you learned your lesson, all traders have to mature sooner or later and accept reality.

I would advise those genius out there ( and they seem all to flock here at FF) to go trade for a hedge fund. If you make 10% per month, again 10% per month you can trade for GS have a six figure salary and a bonus on the end of 4TH quarter that can very well be on the double digits ending with a M.

But hold on........people...
oh dear
  • #265
  • May 7, 2011 2:53pm May 7, 2011 2:53pm
Since april 11, he has sparked 263 replies all about the same question asked in the first post. May 7 and it still has you in here going at each other. Now, that is some return.
  • #266
  • May 7, 2011 4:33pm May 7, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting RibLips
Since april 11, he has sparked 263 replies all about the same question asked in the first post. May 7 and it still has you in here going at each other. Now, that is some return.
Yes, cause these are thought provoking discussions. I don't think that ongoing discussions are a bad thing.
  • #267
  • May 9, 2011 3:37am May 9, 2011 3:37am
Quoting The Captain
If I may direct your attention to this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=121761

There are many traders making far more than 5-10% a month, in fact many make more than that in a week, sometimes a day, myself included....
It's because managing a hedge fund gives you large performance fees. The top hedge fund managers make three to four billions a year, that's their take home pay. Trading your own money isn't gonna get you billions of dollars a year, unless you already have billions of dollars to start with. So basically the main reason why a profitable trader would trade for someone else is because of the extra income.
  • #268
  • May 9, 2011 3:51am May 9, 2011 3:51am
Quoting Pipsqueak
It's because managing a hedge fund gives you large performance fees. The top hedge fund managers make three to four billions a year, that's their take home pay. Trading your own money isn't gonna get you billions of dollars a year, unless you already have billions of dollars to start with. So basically the main reason why a profitable trader would trade for someone else is because of the extra income.
Would you seriously need an income of billions of dollars a year? If you build your account to $500,000 and make 10% a week thats an income of $50,000 a week which equates to $1,800,000 a year if you only work for 36 weeks of the year. So again, you would want to work for someone else....why?
  • #269
  • May 9, 2011 3:53am May 9, 2011 3:53am
Quoting ohammond
Would you seriously need an income of billions of dollars a year? If you build your account to $500,000 and make 10% a week thats an income of $50,000 a week which equates to $1,800,000 a year if you only work for 36 weeks of the year. So again, you would want to work for someone else....why?
Of course nobody would need that. But it would be nice. That's the kind of thing that divides the "have's" from the "have more's". The billionaires can just have a life-style which the millionaires cannot have.
Billionaires live in a different world, they have yachts, own several companies, a lot of luxury cars and buildings. And the best, they can positively influence many other people's lives, if they choose to. Well, and if becoming a billionaire means working for clients, then why not.
  • #270
  • May 9, 2011 4:10am May 9, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Custos
Of course nobody would need that. But it would be nice. That's the kind of thing that divides the "have's" from the "have more's". The billionaires can just have a life-style which the millionaires cannot have.
Billionaires live in a different world, they have yachts, own several companies, a lot of luxury cars and buildings. And the best, they can positively influence many other people's lives, if they choose to. Well, and if becoming a billionaire means working for clients, then why not.
I'm speaking only for myself here of course, but I started trading to get some freedom in my life from the day to day pressures of work, and live comfortably doing it. I am not particularly interested in getting rich, I am interested in freedom, and being able to help those I love and care about both of which can be done without the pressure of trying to stay at the top in a highly pressurised environment, but yes some would want that.
  • #271
  • May 9, 2011 4:16am May 9, 2011 4:16am
Just an example here, wormboy posted his trade station a few months back I remember seeing it, it had over $300,000 in the live account because someone had questioned him over it. He is one of the most conservative traders I have seen here and last week posted this which I've just noticed: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12025

Point is, he earned a lot of money last week and is going to spend it, not compound to see if he can do the same thing again, and thats my target also
  • #272
  • May 9, 2011 6:03am May 9, 2011 6:03am
Oh come on guys, traders should not be thinking in terms of how much percent return they make per certain period. Instead they should be focusing on trading without any deviation from trading plan.

Once they’re consistent in executing flawlessly, then all they need to do is analyze the expectancy of their method, size of losers, the distribution of losers versus winners, etc. They have to think in terms of “return to risk” MULTIPLES, and not in pips or percentage returns.

Once they have these statistics, then monthly or annual percentage returns become a function of their position sizing algorithm. Also compounding is a factor, but not as critical as the position sizing.

Those traders who trade with bigger size don’t need to inflate their egos by proving to themselves or others what returns they make. Those traders are more concerned with limiting risk and smooth equity curve and having relaxing experience while trading instead of being stressed.

Trading should be about improving our lifestyle, and not about creating stress. Focusing on returns means that the trader is focusing on the outcome, and it creates greed and fear. The focus has to be on the process of trading and not on the incentives.
  • #273
  • May 9, 2011 6:12am May 9, 2011 6:12am
Quoting Herd_master
Oh come on guys, traders should not be thinking in terms of how much percent return they make per certain period. Instead they should be focusing on trading without any deviation from trading plan.

Once they’re consistent in executing flawlessly, then all they need to do is analyze the expectancy of their method, size of losers, the distribution of losers versus winners, etc. They have to think in terms of “return to risk” MULTIPLES, and not in pips or percentage returns.
good post.
One point I disagree with is the sentence I marked in bold. It should be the other way around. First you need to know your expectancy and then execute the edge flawlessly.

If you have a crappy method in the first place, then executing that crappy method flawlessly won't get you anywhere.
  • #274
  • May 9, 2011 7:33am May 9, 2011 7:33am
I understand where you’re coming from. Obviously the trading method has to have positive expectancy in the first place.

However where I was coming from, is that what has to be kept in mind is that the biggest risk factor in trading is the trader himself. Following the plan with discipline and avoiding trading errors is a huge edge, and this is where the “expectancy” of a backtested or demoed method will better than once trading live.

Unfortunately we’re all humans and even the pros make errors from time to time. Therefore what my previous sentence meant, is basically that ….unless the trader is consistent with his trade executions, then the method’s expectancy that has been either backtested or demo traded is only of an academic interest. The reason being is that even if you have a very high positive expectancy in a first place, the trader’s execution errors will be reflected in the expectancy and lower it once the fear and greed kicks in. Therefore the trading errors has to be accounted for, and incorporated into risk management, and this is why some traders can trade with only 1% risk per trade, while others can safely go to 3% for example (apart from scalping). ......and... one trader trading the same one method and putting on identical trades will have vastly different percentage returns purely by adjusting the position sizing algorithm. However those who are prone to trading errors must risk little or they'll start having large drawdowns.

Nevertheless, I know that we’re both on the same train of thought.
  • #275
  • May 9, 2011 9:20am May 9, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Herd_master
I understand where you’re coming from. Obviously the trading method has to have positive expectancy in the first place. ...
In my point of view everyone is different.
Everyone has different expectation from forex.
One trader wants to just increase his monthly income, another wants to make a living from it and another wants to make %%% profit.

It is quite like personal trader strategy, agression and limited risk...
RichieEU
  • #276
  • May 12, 2011 6:54am May 12, 2011 6:54am
Quoting hanover
As I see it, the key lies in whether it's possible to scalp profitably on the shortest TFs, where spread has relatively greater effect, and there is arguably more noise. If - and this is the crux of the matter - a scalper can attain a similar (net) profit factor to a position trader, then, everything else (e.g. risk per trade) being equal, the former's daily ROE will be ballpark comparable to the latter's monthly ROE.
Quoting The Captain
If I may direct your attention to this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=121761

There are many traders making far more than 5-10% a month, in fact many make more than that in a week, sometimes a day, myself included.
Yes, the key to high ROI is definitely in short timeframe trading. Ugly, messy, noisy. But I don't think short TFs are generally less predictable than higher TFs.

Personally, for me... trading is all about s/r/pivot zones, supply&demand (the same thing), PA reaction and current market sentiment. A method based on (for instance) patterns/candle formations, major s/r and fibs working fine on daily or 4hr chart can't be transferred as-is (with accordingly tightened stops) to 5min TF and perform there as well as it does in higher TFs. It's the behavior of momentum what makes trading short TFs so difficult, apart from transaction costs. But on the other hand, momentum is the most important factor that makes it possible to trade them effectively. And trading in general is all about risk. To succeed on a short timeframe and enjoy the benefit of more frequent trading the trader has to work with tight stops in a way effective enough not to be whipped out in the long run.

And that's the nearly impossible quest many are struggling with. To succeed, price must be perceived in motion and the most attention has to be paid to how the price actually moves. Without some kind of "tape reading" the ticks, it's VERY hard to find a method based on repeatable static (pattern-based) criteria with pre-determined risk (via stop loss) and positive expectancy. But this "tape reading" tends to be highly subjective, and above all - it's prone to trader's psychology and overall comfort. It definitely can be mastered. It must rely on objective framework (a roadmap) and strict MM rules.

It's the way I chose to go. Still feelin' like a newb. We're in rookie section so I appeal to all rookies: you might try it, but practice, practice and practice. If you tend to hope and pray when in trade and don't limit your risk before you enter, you probably won't make it. It can take years! Currently practicing on a cent account.

Today's GU trade: 2% risk, initial SL 14 pips. Half closed for 32 pips => 2.2% gain. Risk paid out already. Rest running free.
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:-anything
  • #277
  • May 22, 2011 5:34am May 22, 2011 5:34am
Someome here mentioned its not possible to make more the 5% p.a on a constant basis .

Well its true and wrong , the point is just that with small investment you can make use of a much higher leverage as if you would trading with millions , so till a certain point you can definetly make more then 5% even in a week on a constant basis , but the percentage rate will decline as your money grows
  • #278
  • Jun 9, 2011 1:32am Jun 9, 2011 1:32am
I think it's funny that this thread is about posting realized returns, and all everyone is doing is arguing about returns. I am assuming that most of you don't have a return worth posting.


I aim for 2-3% per week.

we usually trade during the GU-NY session overlap, or when major volatility is present.

We are 100% algorithmic in nature so we have about 3,000 lines of code invested.

Some weeks are better than others 5+% some are losers, but so far in the two months me and my team have been running our algorithms 2-3% seems realistic and attainable.

I would also like to state that we back-test our algorithms for all securities after they have been adjusted for volatility, since our algorithms are solely volatility based.

BUT it has taken us 2 years to do it : 4 college students, 2 math majors, 2 programming majors, 1 from Stanford, and about 2200 hour of my time invested in my "market" education

My point in saying this is hopefully adding a positive contribution to a thread of what we consider "aggressive" and this is very aggressive, most professional money managers would give their left nut for 25% a year.

Be realistic, but remember, unless you know what you are doing as far as extreme trade management and capital allocation, per currency pair, if your returns are jumping around a lot and your equity curve is not smooth, don't expect to stay in the game long. One of the only full-time, big-time forex traders I know gave me interesting advice a long time ago. He said that the object of the game, is to stay in as long as you can. for your account to bleed as slowly as possible. At first I thought he was freakin insane, it made no sense to me whatsoever.

It wasn't until I got my algorithms to consistently break-even over hundreds of trades a day , that I started to catch a few inefficiencies in our money and trade management that pushed us into profitability. My biggest gold nugget of information which ironically is one of the first things I read in this forum 2.5 years ago, MONEY MANAGEMENT AND TRADE MANAGEMENT on a micro level is the key to success.

A few intelligent and devoted friends, encouraging professors, and math classes always help though!
= )


10,000 hours is what it takes to be a master right?

Imagine 10,000 hours of your time and then ask if this is for you.
  • #279
  • Jun 12, 2011 9:30am Jun 12, 2011 9:30am
These guys are the best of the best currently. Although they dont have long records to prove consistency, anywhere from 15% to 40% in a single year is earning them million dollar bonuses. You gun traders should definetly give J.P Morgan a call
http://energytraders.yuku.com/topic/486#.TfTEaFsbEYQ
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #280
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:21am Jun 12, 2011 10:21am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
These guys are the best of the best currently. Although they dont have long records to prove consistency, anywhere from 15% to 40% in a single year is earning them million dollar bonuses. You gun traders should definetly give J.P Morgan a call
http://energytraders.yuku.com/topic/486#.TfTEaFsbEYQ
No, these are the best of the best under 30 years of age and only a couple I can see trade currencies. You can carry on comparing yourself to these types of people's returns and be happy that you're doing a reasonable return, or you can try comparing yourself to these instead: http://www.genevaforexevent.com/ The reason I am linking to this is because these are contests for live accounts with Dukascopy, not demo like a lot of them have.
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