A new emerging commodity / currency : Bitcoins (BTC)

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

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Today is an abbreviated analysis as I am working on a hot bitcoin related project as well..
Overall, the rally is fully intact.
Prices consolidate in a bullish flag on a very high level. The low volume over the past days is actually a bullish sign.
This makes the breakout above 0.30 $ the most likely scenario.
Tonight I am posting a chart from bitcoinmarket as this is very interesting (thanks again to bitcoincharts.com for the great charting tool): You see that we are very close to a new all time high, as prices did not fluctuate as much as on MtGox on this very low volume, insignificant peak at 0.50 $. (Still, MtGox remains the biggest exchange in terms of volume and showing the most variety of fund additions.)
We are only 0.04 $ away from a new all time high there.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...-daily-BCM.png


Have a great BITday.
Next update Friday, Jan 7th.
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=167

Please donate some BTCs to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9
Today is very simple for me. See below what I have forecasted on Jan 5th: "Overall, the rally is fully intact.
Prices consolidate in a bullish flag on a very high level. The low volume over the past days is actually a bullish sign.
This makes the breakout above 0.30 $ the most likely scenario."
This exactly happened in the past 24hours.


Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact. We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $ (stronger resistance) and then 0.50 $ (all time high) and Parity 1.00 $. Upside almost seems unlimited if markets continue to be that strong and further funds will be inflowing. I will update on price targets when we get beyond the 0.50 $ high. We are currently in a third of a third wave up which typically surprise on the upside, and in turn it is dangerous to bet on the downside.
MACD indicators and 13day exponential moving average confirm the rally.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0107-daily.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. See how evident the 0.30$ resistance was. Prices were rejected multiple times over the past 10 days and today broke out up to 0.32$ in high volume (12,286 $).
Prices will likely move towards 0.35 $now that 0.30 $ is taken out. Expect this 0.35$ resistance to be minor.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...107-hourly.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext regular update Monday, Jan 10th.
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

In a nutshell, we continue to be in a strong bitcoin rally. The key message today is "IT ONLY TAKES $ 11k to PARITY", of course with the caveat that this is based on the visible order book at MtGox only, assuming that it stays like that and that there are no big dark pools.
In any case, we have seen declines of selling orders below 0.40 $ from 100,000 bitcoins 3 weeks ago down to only 25,000.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact. We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $. The all time high at 0.50 $ (only at MtGox) does not pose a significant resistance as explained in one of the last updates. Key next target is Parity 1.00 $. But even this resistance is only psychological. Technically, we may see rallies up to 1.3-1.5 in the near term (resembling the upper side of a parallel trendchannel, as highlighted in one of the previous analysis).
Both, MACD indicator and 13 day moving average point upwards. Bollinger band channel is also rising.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0110-daily.png

Further evidence of the rally is that BTC have already made a new all time high of 0.40 $/BTC at bitcoinmarket.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0110-daily.png


https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. No change vs. last update, the volume trend remains healthy. Significant volume almost exclusively happend on the upside which is bullish.
Short term resistance is 0.30 $, next target 0.35 $. Once this level is takken out, the rally is likely to accelerate (see order book). Surprises continue to be more likely on the upside.



https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...2%20hourly.pngNext update Wednesday, Jan 12th.
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Of note, I literally have 25mins tonight left, but I wanted to stick to my promise, especially also given what happened today on BTC/USD.

Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

In a nutshell, the forecast is well on track and we continue to be in a strong bitcoin rally. Today we saw another huge accumulation day, with almost 10,000 USD buying volume to the upside, making another high at just under 0.36 $.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact. This is what I said on Monday: "We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $"... and today it happened. The all time high at 0.50 $ (only at MtGox) can be reached fast and does not pose a significant resistance. Key next target is Parity 1.00 $. But even this resistance is only psychological. Technically, we may see rallies up to 1.3-1.5 in the near term (resembling the upper side of a parallel trendchannel, as highlighted in one of the previous analysis).


https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. No change vs. last update, the volume trend remains healthy. Significant volume almost exclusively happend on the upside which is bullish.
Now that 0.36 $ has been reached, the rally is likely to accelerate (see order book). Surprises continue to be more likely on the upside.
When looking at the hourly chart,you clearly see the huge buying volume on the upside. The small corrections to the downside are always only mini-volumes, potentially driven by some traders who are trying to keep prices down as they may not be invested enough.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...112-hourly.png

https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...2%20hourly.pngNext update Friday, Jan 14th.
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

We continue to be in a strong bitcoin rally, as explained in past analyses. As you can see, the analyses remain very consistent, so don't be disappointed if I use similar expressions all over again (I am a technical market analyst, no poet). Today we saw yet another strong accumulation day, with 10,543 USD volume mostly on the upside. At the time this is pubslished, BTC / USD are making a new all time closing high at 0.40 $.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact.Key next big target is Parity 1.00 $. But even this resistance is only psychological. Technically, we may see rallies up to 1.3-1.5 in the near term (resembling the upper side of a parallel trendchannel, as highlighted in one of the previous analysis).
Another bullish sign is the MACD indicator which shows a "hook up", indicating an accelerating rally. The approach to 1 $ will not go in a straight line as daytraders play the markets, cashing in a couple of percent if they are good. This is not bad per default as it brings liquidity into the market.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...aily-close.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

The bullish outlook from the weekly and daily charts is confirmed in the short term view as well. No change vs. last update, the volume trend remains healthy. Significant volume almost exclusively happens on the upside which is bullish.
Wednesday I said: "Now that 0.36 $ has been reached, the rally is likely to accelerate (see order book). Surprises continue to be more likely on the upside." We reached 0.44 $ intraday high today.

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Monday, Jan 17th.
Your S3052

By the way, if someone is interested to trade bitcoins, the easiest way to buy trade big amounts 1,000 USD up to 100,000 USD and potentially more) is on:

www.mtgox.com
www.bitcoin-central.net


i.e. via simple and cheap wire transfer.

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update covering the past days (I could not give a detailed analysis before due to family issues).

Please donate to keep it alive.
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We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. However, we are currently in a correction phase, at least in the short term.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.28-0.29 $ is not broken to the downside.
Overall , there are are two alternate options.
1) The first one is a continued rally towards high targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $.
2) The second one is that we may see the biggest correction in the past 3-6 months.
The key trigger point is the 0.28-0.29 level. A sustained break below will activate the downside scenario.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...aily-copy1.png



https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Short term we are in a correction towards the red trendline in the above displayed longterm chart to 0.28-0.29 $. If enough buyers step in at this level, the longterm rally may be kept alive.
If not, a deep correction to much lower levels (0.17, 0.10 $) are in the cards.

https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...2%20hourly.pngNext update Monday, Jan 24th.
Your S3052

********Alert*********

the market has spoken and decided that the rally goes on and is accelerating

Prices respected the trendline and have broken out to the upside

Further upside surprises likely

Parity (1.$/bitcoin) by end January still possible (more than 100% upside)

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Please donate to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9
We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. The correction is likely to be over and BTC/USD are at new highs.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.28-0.29 $ is not broken to the downside. Overall , there are are two alternate options.
1) The first one is a continued rally towards high targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $. One could make the case for a break out of a triangle (see two red lines) whch would imply a rise toward 0.7-0.8 swiftly.
2) The second one is that we may see the biggest correction in the past 3-6 months.
Option 1) has won for the time being and the rally is gaining traction.
2. Short term update
Short term we are consolidating at the high level around 0.39-0.42. A break above 0.42 will lead to prices moving towards 0.45, then 0.5, before possibly accelerating again.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...close-copy.pngNext update Wednesday, Jan 26th.
Your S3052

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Please donate to keep it alive. Donations have gone down significantly , so I am thinking about modifying my approach (it takes me about 5 hours per week in total and I am not sure if it is worth the effort). Please indicate me if you want me to continue or not. I am still passionate about it, but I need some help. Thank you.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9
We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. The -25% correction from mid January is over and BTC/USD are unambigously in a healthy uptrend.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.28-0.29 $ is not broken to the downside.
The bitcoin rally has now the following big targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $. The break out of the triangle (as shown in last update) indicates a rise toward 0.7-0.8.
Key trend following indicators, i.e MACD are confirming this view.
Bollinger price bands are also stretched upwards after the break out from 0.4 $.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0126-daily.png

2. Short term update
No change vs. last update: We are consolidating just above 0.4 $. A break above 0.42 will lead to prices moving towards 0.45, then 0.5, before possibly accelerating again.
Volume is also picking up which is a healthy sign , especially as it remains above 0.4$.
Next update Friday, Jan 28th.
Your S3052

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Please donate to keep it alive. Thank you for thedonations, it helps me a lot.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9
The forecast is well on track: We continue to be in a bitcoin rally. The -25% correction from mid January is over and BTC/USD are unambigously in a healthy uptrend.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The longterm rally is intact, as long as 0.30-0.32 $ is not broken to the downside (I lifted the support level based on the recent rally and acknowledging that 0.3 is the strong barrier).
The bitcoin rally has the following big targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $. The break out of the triangle (as shown in last update) indicates a rise toward 0.7-0.8.
Key trend following indicators, i.e MACD continue to confirm this view.
Bollinger price bands are also stretched upwards after the break out from 0.4 $ and show a nice uptrend.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0128-daily.png

2. Short term update
No change vs. last update: We are consolidating just above 0.4 $. A break above 0.42 will lead to prices moving towards 0.45, then 0.51 (strong sell order at mtgox), before possibly accelerating again.
Volume is very healthy supporting proces to stay above 0.4$.
Next update Monday, Jan 31th.
Your S3052

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Please donate to keep it alive:
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9
The rally is accelerating, coupled with strong buying volume.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The bitcoin rally has more legs. Today, a new all time intraday high on MtGox has been reached (today 0.52 $, up +200% from just a one and a half months ago). Closing all time high has already been made a week ago which signaled the upmove.
Now we see the following big targets: Parity 1.00 $, 1.3-1.5 $. (Of note, in the meanwhile, prices already moved to 0.95$)

For perspective, while the move towards 1 $ seem to be huge, if you think about the overall min-size of the bitcoin market, much higher targets are plausible and should not surprise anyone. Condition for that is further money inflow. Just for example, if a couple of $ million flow into the market, we may see 10 $ or 100$ per bitcoin fast.
Key trend following indicators, i.e MACD continue to confirm this view. The "upward hook" from today (see chart below) signals a further acceleration of the rally.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0131-daily.png

2. Short term update
Not a lot of words needed, the charts speak for themselves. Clear uptrend .Prices may pause to give buyers a last chance to buy around the 0.5 level before moving higher.
Support levels are 0.47 $, 0.45 $, but As long as o.4 $ holds, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...131-hourly.png

Next update Friday, 4th. (I am out travelling the next days. Next update will be Friday. In case sth materially changes I will try to put a short message into the blog and forum).
Your S3052

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Please donate to keep it alive: (I need some BTC to make this worthwhile for me longterm)

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9


The rally is continuing with strong momentum. Surprises continue to be likley on the upside.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The forecast is totally on track. Parity has been reached more or less (i.e. 1$ on Feb 1 on bitcoincentral, 0.95$ on mtgox), much faster as many have expected (I have been probably one of the few who has said that we may already reach it by end Jan '11 (sorry, I was wrong by 1 day, please forgive me).
Key indicators like the MACD also confirm the accelerating nature of the bitcoin market (see first chart).
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...204-daily1.png

Now, many ask what the next targets are..?
I did some trendline analysis based on log scale, which is more realistic given the exponential rise over the past months.
as you see in the second chart below, upper trendline resistance lies in the 1.5$ to 1.7$ range, which is significant more upside (almost another 100%).
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...trendlines.png

2. Short term update
After the 3-wave corrective "bull flag" that developed from the 0.95$ high, prices broke out today to the upside on high volume (22,000 USD).
As long as price do not break the 0.4-0.45 $ area, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally. Short term support is now the 0.70-0.65$ zone.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...204-hourly.png




Next update Monday, 7th.
Your S3052

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Please donate to keep it alive: (I need some BTC to make this worthwhile for me longterm)

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Sometimes no change is a good thing. While I am always happy to analyze and find out something completely different, this often does not make sense when it comes to technical market analysis. Instead, my forecast is fully on track:The rally is continuing with strong momentum. Surprises continue to be likely on the upside.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
After dollar parity has been reached more or less (i.e. 1$ on Feb 1 on bitcoincentral, 0.95$ on mtgox), the market is now consolidating on a very high level which is bullish.
Both, volume patterns and the key trend indicator MACD are confirming the accelerating nature of the bitcoin market (see chart below).


http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0207-daily.png

Based on logscale trendline analysis (see Monday's log scale chart), next big targets are in the 1.5$ to 1.7$ range, which is significant more upside (almost another 100%).
As long as price do not break the 0.4-0.45 $ area, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally.





2. Short term update
Prices are consolidating around 0.83-0.90 $ and the "doji" candlesticks (see longterm chart above) indicate that there is still buying power, which is preventing prices to fall at the moment.
Short term support is now the 0.80-0.83 area where some people may be able to buy bitcoins before the rally continues higher (there was huge buying volume around 0.8 last week which acts as support now). If this level is breached, the 0.70-0.65$ zone should prove formidable.


http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...207-hourly.png




Next update: Friday, 11th (I will be travelling as of tomorrow. I will try to post an update in between, but I rather prepare all of you that it might not work, and then positively surprise vs. under-delivering).


Your S3052

Really exotic currency pair.

What do you think about JPY/BTC?

BTC is indeed a novel currency and is currently appreciating towards ALL other currencies, and even vs. precious metals in rapi pace.

See below the chart of BTC vs. the USD. It tripled within the last 2-3 weeks and there is more upside. Long-term, the pace of appreciation will probably slow down as the markets get bigger and more mature, but still it is fundamentally stronger than other fiat currencies.

The BTC/JPY is not really traded in significant volumes, that is why I am still posting the BTC/USD charts only.

I am sure if Japanese traders start trading BTC/JPY this market will also perform similarly yo BTC/USD (obviously keeping the USD/JPY relationship per this forex market).

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgo...gSzm1g10zm2g25
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/char...&1297353379953

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. (Un)fortunately my flight in Madrid is delayed so I am using the opportunity to write this article).
Please donate to keep it alive: (I need some BTC to make this worthwhile for me longterm):

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

In a nutshell, the rally is very strong and is likely to again accelerate. After a brief consolidation around 1.00$ (+-0.10$), the Bitcoin Bulls ("BitBulls") are back.


Analysis
1. Long term outlook
Strong volume is backing the rally. The market recorded the highest ever volume day in currency on Feb 9 and also the entire week is at all time high volumes (see chart below).
Next target is 1.5$ (upper channel logarithmic trendline), then followed by 2$, 5$, 10$ (these are only psychological stopping points). But any of these levels could be evaporated by fund inflows - as the bitcoin market is still tiny compared to all other financial markets.


http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0211-daily.png




As long as price do not break the 0.4 area, there is no doubt about the bitcoin rally.


2. Short term update
Short term support is now the 1$ mark, and then the 0.80-0.83 area.



Next update: Monday, 14th.

Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Please donate to keep it alive (some BTC s per edition are needed to make this worthwhile):

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

As indicated on Friday, the bitcoin rally is very strong and the market is comfortably in the hands of the "BitBulls".

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
After making a new all time high at 1.10 $ together with high volumes, the market has consolidated over the weekend.
This does not change the outlook given last week: "Next target is 1.5$ (upper channel logarithmic trendline), then followed by 2$, 5$, 10$ (these are only psychological stopping points). But any of these levels could be evaporated by fund inflows - as the bitcoin market is still tiny compared to all other financial markets." These price targets should not be confused with time targets. I will try to give some outlook on time targets as well soon. However, be aware that price targets are better to forecast than time targets.

Strong bitcoin publicity over the past days can in all likelyhood attract more and bigger investors who can propel the market much higher, given the small size of the market relative to almost all other financial markets. Depending on money flows and investor & market psychology, some price targets can be reached VERY fast or slow...

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0214-daily.png

As long as price do not break the 0.4 area, the bitcoin rally is intact.





2. Short term update
Since the Feb 10 high, prices paint a texbook-type ascending triangle just under 1.10 $.
Typically, this leads to a break out to the upside.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...14-hourly1.png

Short term support remains at 1$, and then the 0.80-0.83 area.


Next update: Wednesday, 16th.
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive and keep this worthwhile for me:

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

The rally has been pausing after the huge rally and most probably will break out of the congestion area soon.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
After making a new all time high at 1.10 $ together with high volumes, the market has consolidated over the past 7 trading days in a narrow range (1.08-1.03 $). Volume in the consolidation is lower, which is BULLISH.

Next significant target is 1.5$ (upper channel logarithmic trendline), then followed by 2$, 5$, 10$ . any of these levels could be evaporated by fund inflows - as the bitcoin market is still tiny compared to all other financial markets.

There is daily more evidence on rising bitcoin awareness (see Gavin's great IGNITE speech). This can attract more and bigger investors who can propel the market much higher, given the small size of the market relative to almost all other financial markets.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0216-daily.png

As long as price do not break the 0.4 area, the bitcoin rally is intact.

2. Short term update
Since the Feb 10 high, prices consolidate between 1.08-1.03 $. The contracting Bollinger Bands (grey zone in chart below) indicate the a breakout is getting more likely with every trading day. The consolidation pattern can still be counted as a triangle, but the pattern of consolidations can take the shape of 11 different forms (see elliottwave.com). Is is almost impossible to predict if we are in a triangle, a-b-c zigzag correction, flat or any variation of these. But it does not matter. As long as prices do not break down below 1 $ significantly (which is huge support now), the most likely next direction is UP (a break of 1.052 is the first sign, a break above 1.10 $ would be a confirmation).

Some people may ask: why 1.052? This is the upper end of the Bollinger Band and yesterday there was a big dark sell order at that level. Hence, for people who want to buy bitcoins below 1.10 $ it may be a good opportunity if prices break higher soon. Further, the slow stochastics have already turned up.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...216-hourly.png

Next update: Friday, 18th.
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Please donate to keep it alive and keep this worthwhile for me:

1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Bitcoin have started a correction today after breaking below the decisive 1$ mark as highlighted previously.

Analysis

1. Long term outlook

The originally bullish consolidation pattern has turned into a breakdown below 1$.
Some key indicators have turned bearish so we may see more days/weeks of correction/consolidation (MACD crossed downwards, and EMA 13 has been broken to the downside)

Still, as long as prices do not break the 0.4 area, the bitcoin rally is intact.


2. Short term update

After the breakdown below 1$, prices have stopped at the 0.8$ mark which has been previously an area of strong buying volume.
This 0.8$ are is now support, and the 1$ mark the resistance.
If 0.8$ does not hold, the next area of support is in the 0.5$ - 0.55$ zone (lower bollinger band).
If prices break out above 1$ the rally can continue to 1.1$ (all time high( and then higher towards 1.5$, 2$, etc.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/char...&1298068663468



Next update: Monday, 21st.


Your S3052