A new emerging commodity / currency : Bitcoins (BTC)

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Overall, there are no fundamental changes in our the outlook versus Friday. The bulls are in the attack, but the bears hold the lid on the market around 0.30-0.35$.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in rally mode. I have added a new longterm chart that shows the perfect uptrend line (now around 0.26 $ and rising ) and also the 0.30 - 0.35$ resistance.
Strong upside targets are the previous high, 0.50 $, dollar parity at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...-close-log.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
The inverted head and shoulders pattern described on Friday is still intact, awaiting the breakout to the upside. MACD has broken out upwards already. Still, there remains strong selling volume in the order book. Today's opening of bitcoingateway.com may help to create positive money flows.

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Wednesday, Nov 24th.
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Your S3052
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...922-hourly.png

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
As many of you have realized, the market is relatively unchanged over the past days, so I only did minor tweaks in the re-post of Wednesday's update. I am sure price action will get exciting again. Often, this happens when most people do not expect it, so stay alert.
Overall, there are no fundamental changes in our the outlook. The bulls are in the attack, but the bears hold the lid on the market around 0.30-0.35$.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in rally mode. The longterm chart that shows the perfect uptrend line (now around 0.265 $ and rising ) and also the 0.30 - 0.35$ resistance.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...se-300x204.png
Strong upside targets are the previous high, 0.50 $, dollar parity at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area.
Support lies in the 0.265 area (trendline), 0.25 and o.20-0.22 afterwards.

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
No change: The inverted head and shoulders pattern is still intact, awaiting the breakout to the upside, which is still the most likely scenario. Based on my daily analysis of the order book, ASK volume is declining, indicating that buyers "slowly eat up the cake above them".

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Wednesday, Nov 24th.
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Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
After a couple of quite days, the market got ignited today and we saw stronger trading activity.
Overall, there are no fundamental changes in our outlook. The bulls are in the attack, but the bears hold the lid on the market around 0.30-0.35$. But the lid is getting some holes now.


Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in rally mode. The longterm chart that shows the perfect uptrend line (now around 0.268$ and rising ) and also the 0.30 - 0.35$ resistance (see chart in Wednesday's update).
Strong upside targets are the previous high (0.50 $), DOLLAR PARITY at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area.
Support lies in the 0.268 area (trendline), 0.25 and o.20-0.22 afterwards. As long as this holds, the daily and weekly trends are UP.

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
Looking at the 5 day chart, today registered high buying volume, scratching the 0.29 $ zone for the first time in days. The high buying intrest is a positive sign of accumulation.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ay-300x137.png

Looking at the daily chart, this is confirmed: You see that today's volume is highest in 8 days. Without going into too many fundamentals, the last days of broad bitcoin coverage, the opening of new services and the broadening of exchanges and gateways are a sign that more buying interest is probable, finally taking out the resistance "lid" in the next days.
Bitcoin trading stays exciting and probably will enter a new, even more exciting phase soon.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x137.png

Tonight's special is the order book analysis. As you can see in below simplified chart (I have daily extracts of order books in my files but kept is to two data points for simplicity), the USD volume on the sell side has decreased from over 50,000 $ on Nov 19 to only 24,000 $ today, a cut in half. Of course, with the opening of dark pools on MtGox, there may be some hidden volumes now, but the trend is evident. Now it takes only about 24,000 $ to move the market to 0.40 $/BTC.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...26-300x187.png


http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Monday, Nov 29th.
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Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
After the significant (almost 30%) decline from 0.29 to 0.205 $, prices have stabilized in a narrow corridor. Today, I want to review the overall outlook and additionally reply to some comments from my readers.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are still in rally mode if we look at conventional "higher high, lowe low" methodologies. However, one of the two possible trendlines have been broken (upper red line using candlesticks and log close). There is still another possibility of drawing the trendline (see lower red line in chart, as per some of your comments): Under this interpretation, as long as prices hold the 0.20-0.21 support, further rally is plausible. The alternate scenario is that prices could fall further into the 0.11-0.14 area.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x137.png

Strong upside targets remain the previous high (0.50 $), DOLLAR PARITY at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area.
Support lies in the 0.20-0.21 $ area and then 0.11-0.14 $.

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
The hourly chart shows the congestion area between 0.205-0.226 $. If prices break above, upside to the former breakdown level of 0.27 $ is likely.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x204.pngA break down below 0.20 would deteriorate the technical picture heavily and open the door for fast declines.
http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Friday, Dec 3rd.
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As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Overall, bitcoins have found support around 0.17-0.21. After a false breakdown below 0.2 most likely scenario now is UP towards 0.28- 0.35 $.
Only if this big support of 0.17-0.20 is breached again, the sell off may resume towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD have reclaimed the longterm trendline (still around 0.23 $). This is a very bullish signal.
Support lies in the 0.17-0.20 $ and then 0.11-0.14 $ area.
As evidenced in the daily chart below, prices are now trapped between two converging trendlines and a break out is imminent. Most likley to the upside.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x237.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Looking at the hourly chart, prices are currently forming a bullish flag as a consolidation pattern from the rise that started at 0.17. Most probable scenario is a breakout to the upside.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x204.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Friday, Dec 10th.
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Your S3052

Hi Everyone,
did you take a look recently at bitcoins?
I'd like to offer my experience to explain more if needed
cheers

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. (before, one explaination: blue arrows indicate the most favorite price direction. grey arrows the lower likely scenario. But be aware that there is always a certain probability for the lower likely scenario and you trade at your own risk)
Overall, our forecast from Dec 8 is on track. Bitcoins have found support around 0.17-0.21. After a false breakdown below 0.2 most likely scenario now is UP towards 0.28- 0.35 $.
Sentiment is also supporting the chance for an upside break and a rally. In these cases, we have often seen that the breakout surprises many traders and then strong buying starts as many people do not want to miss the train.

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, the sell off may resume towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD is close to the longterm trendline which is running around 0.23 $, but it has not yet broken out of it to the upside.
Support lies in the 0.17-0.20 $ and then 0.11-0.14 $ area.
As evidenced in the daily chart below, prices are now trapped between a cluster of strong support (big horizontal resistance of 0.17-0.20) and the trendline (green). Still our favorite scenario is that a break out to the upside is imminent (similar to other breakouts in summer and Oct 10, when prices rallied heavily)
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x237.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Looking at the hourly chart, prices are still in a bullish flag. The consolodation has continued a bit longer than we expected, but the pattern still confirms the outlook. Most probable scenario is a breakout to the upside, because:
1. Prices have formed a "rounding bottom" around 0.17-0.20 $ as indicated by the purple line.
2. Volume is declining together with prices which is a bullish indicator.
3. Prices are again close to the upper trendline.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x237.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Monday, Dec 13th.
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Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. Donate a couple of coins to keep it alive (I moved this address to the top :-).
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9
Overall, no major changes on the outlook vs. last analysis (modifications in blue color). The trend is UP again since the Dec 7 low. Next targets are 0.28 $ and 0.30-0.35$.
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, the sell off may resume towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD is close to the longterm trendline which is running around 0.22-0.23 $.
Support lies in the 0.17-0.20 $ and then 0.11-0.14 $ area.
As evidenced in the daily chart below, prices are now trapped between a cluster of strong support (red trendline, big horizontal support of 0.17-0.20) and the trendline (green).
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...ly-300x237.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Still our favorite scenario is that a break out to the upside is imminent (similar to other breakouts in summer and Oct 10, when prices rallied heavily). In fact, one could argue that the breakout has just happened as prices trade slightly above the trendline. We will see over the next few days if this trend continues. We need to see confirmation via higher volumes.
Next major target is then 0.28 $, followed by 0.30$ and 0.35$ , before the ATH can be attacked (0.50 $).

1. MACD is showing bullish divergences
2. Volume trend was not confirming the last downturn. Instead, we see positive signs of accumulation.
3. RSI is pointing higher.




http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Wednesday, Dec 15th.

Your S3052

For those who are new, I pasted again the info on how to trade bitcoins and get more information:

Here is a snapshot on trading bitcoins:

Bitcoingateway: https://www.bitcoingateway.com/ where you can buy bitcoins vis US credit cards (Mastercard, Visa). Great personal and secure service.

MtGox http://mtgox.com: This is the biggest exchange with highest turnover. Only minimal transaction fees at 0.65%.

Bitcoinmarket https://www.bitcoinmarket.com/ : This allows liberty reserve USD, Paypal USD and Pecunix GAU. The owner takes new traders / investors who are known as honest folks from a longterm history on the bitcoin forum http://www.bitcoin.org/smf/index.php .

Btcex https://btcex.com/?language=en :This works for Russian Rubles RUB. And it has started to accept also WMZ, WMR, WME and now also JPY.
The positive is that this exchange accepts bank wire (but in RUB).

A great OTC platform: http://bitcoin-otc.com

Bitcoinexchange https://www.bitcoinexchange.com/ : This is an exchange that allows EUR funds. Also here, bank wire is working greatly and it also allows sms or phone call payment.

There are also some bitcoin / cash exchangers https://www.bitcoin4cash.com/
and
http://bitcoin2cash.com/.

Bitcoin charts are really great here: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/

Bitcoin Analysis is available here, on the technical analysis forum and on http://mtgox.com/blog/

As promised, here is tonight’s Technical BTC Update. Donate a couple of coins to keep it alive.
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The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Next targets are 0.28-0.29 $ (+20% from today’s price) and 0.30-0.35$.
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, the sell off may resume towards 0.1 – 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
The big news tonight is that BTC/USD has reclaimed the longterm trendline, which is running around 0.23 $ and slowly rising.


http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...215-daily3.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

The second news today is that (as predicted in last update), prices broke out of the downward sloping trendline as evidenced in above chart (black circle).
As indicated above, next target is 0.28-0.29 $, followed by 0.30$ and 0.35$ , before the ATH can be attacked (0.50 $). Longterm upper channel trendline is currently at around 1.40 $/BTC (I will show in one of the next updates a longer term view inlcuding some comments on price targets).

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext update Friday, Dec 17th.

Your S3052

Here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
First, let me apologize for the delay of the full update since I had to travel unexpectedly.
Second, thanks to all of you who are donating. It really keeps me motivated since I am doing this on top of my 24/7 main job and a big family..
Keep donating to keep it alive.
1LWgEH6SBFXUr1zYs7QSra9rpL8ktv9mP9

Our forecast remains overall on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Next targets are 0.28-0.29 $ (+20% from today's price) and 0.30-0.35$.
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
As mentioned before, BTC/USD has reclaimed the longterm trendline, which is running around 0.235 $ and slowly rising.
Today I am adding another refresher from the Elliott Wave analysis I did over the weekend (for theory and explainations see also elliottwave.com): After a clear 5-wave impulsive wave (which we can label intermediate wave I) to the Nov 9 high, we have completed a clear 3-wave (a-b-c) correction to the Dec 7 low (intermendiate wave II). And now, we have started the next bigger wave up (intermediate wave III). Third waves are typically the strongest waves and can lead to big price action.
If this is really a thrid wave, the price target is at least the upper trendline from the parallel trendchannel that can be drawn in the logarithmic chart. Currently, this line crosses at around 1.0-1.4 $.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...daily-copy.png

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...-daily-log.png

https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
Over the past few days, prices move along the trendline. Price action is supported by strong volume on the upside and low volume on the downside, which is bullish.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...18-hourly1.png

Next short term target is 0.28-0.29 $, followed by 0.30$ and 0.35$ , before the ATH can be attacked (0.50 $).


https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...2%20hourly.pngNext update Monday, Dec 19th.
Your S3052

I believe in bitcoins or whatever they are called. They are like Gold or fiat currencies. They only have a value because a bunch of people give them value via their minds. As long as people trust this currency and as long as this trust grows, the currency will grow in value.

Having said that, Gold is pretty much useless. It's only so valuable because we give it a value. What's Gold? A shiny rare metal that has very few limited uses. Silver and copper are probably way more useful.

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Thanks to all of you who are donating. It really keeps me motivated since I am doing this on top of my 24/7 main job.

Keep donating to keep it alive.
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Since I just shared the last update yesterday, I keep this short: Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have today broken out further to the upside (high 0.275) and are now moving towards the targets of 0.30-0.35$.
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
no change vs. yesterday. trend is clearly UP

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...1220-daily.png

https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...term%20log.png

2. Short term update
Over the past few days, prices move along the trendline and have today made further progress to the upside. Price action is supported by strong volume on the upside and low volume on the downside, which is bullish.

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...220-hourly.png

Next short term target is 0.30$ - 0.35$ , before the ATH can be attacked (0.50 $).


https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...2%20hourly.pngNext update Wednesday, Dec 22nd.
Your S3052

Agree 100% with you on both
1) bitcoins will be trusted more and more so likely prices will explode
2) gold can't be used for much, silver and copper have more use. at the same time, all these are dependent on the economy and speculation

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
Keep donating to keep it alive.
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Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have today broken out further to the upside and are moving towards the targets of 0.30-0.35$. This will not be a straight line, with some consolidations on the way (like over the past hours).

Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
no change. trend is clearly UP


https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Let's focus on the 5d chart which shows a key support at 0.24 $.
Upper short term resistance is now 0.262-0.275. Once this level is cleared, prices will likley move towards 0.22 and then 0.30-0.35.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...222-hourly.png



https://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20...2%20hourly.pngNext update Friday, Dec 24th. Let's see what christmas gift you get from me in the Dec 24 uodate and what I get from you guys :-) I am excited :-)
Your S3052

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. (for personal reasons I will not be able to analyse the market closely until Jan 1st, 2011. I will try to alert in case somethinh major happens, but I cannot guarantee.
Keep donating to keep it alive.
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Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices are moving towards the targets of 0.30-0.35$. This will not be a straight line, with some consolidations on the way.
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
We are in rally mode. As evidenced by the below chart, prices are above the key trendline (red) and have also broken out of a downsloping trendline (green). Prices are on their way towards 0.30-0.35 and then 0.50 $ (all time high). Further upside to 1.00 $ parity is probably, especially if further funds are inflowing.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...1227-daily.png


http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Upper short term resistance of 0.25-0.26 has just been cleared. The dark pool ASK at 0.25 has been evaporated. Prices will likley move towards 0.30-0.35.
http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext regular update Sunday, Jan 1st.
Your S3052

we reached 0.30 $ just a few days ago.

This is +20% in just 5 days.

And: BTC/USD is up +176% since Dec 7.

To see the price development, go to bitcoincharts.com

Well this sure is an interesting experiment. I'll be watching it with interest. To be honest it's hard to see how a completely faith-backed currency can grow and become economically useful in the current environment, but you're performing a worthwhile experiment and I hope you are successful.

Bitcoins are really not that different in concept from regular fed-issued paper money. Both are generated without cost by computers. Neither are backed by anything of tangible value. Regular paper money is basically backed by violence and the threat of force (legal tender laws), while I guess you could say that bitcoins are backed by voluntarism. When you get right down to it, though, the threat of force is actually pretty tangible. It has certainly been effective so far.

It will be interesting to see how much market share a volunteerism-backed currency like bitcoin can achieve. In my book, any market share it takes away from violence-based money will be a step forward.

Thanks GoldStandard for the very though-through comment.

I will publish the next update in a moment and yes.. it will be exciting to see how this "experiment" progresses.

thanks!

Welcome in an exciting year for Bitcoins. I wish you a great, happy and healthy year 2011.
Tonight I want to particularly thank tcatm for the great charting website, which enabled a true stepchange in BTC market analysis and I am sure you all use and tell your friends who are interested to follow BTCs.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/

Now to tonight's Technical BTC Update, the first in 2011.
Please donate some BTCs to keep it alive.
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Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have strongly moved higher on rising volume and hit 0.30 $ (up more than 600% over the past 5 months).
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $ (stronger resistance) and then 0.50 $ (all time high, very weak resistance as trading volume at the peak was negligable, see Nov 7 peak chart, 2nd chart in this post). Upside almost seems unlimited if markets continue to be that strong and further funds will be inflowing. I will update on price targets when we get beyond the 0.50 $ high. We are currently in a third of a third wave up which typically surprise on the upside, and in turn it is dangerous to bet on the downside.
http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...0102-daily.png

http://mtgox.com/blog/wp-content/upl...-Nov7-peak.png

http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...term%20log.png

2. Short term update

Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. Upper short term resistance of 0.25-0.26 has just been cleared. The dark pool ASK at 0.25 has been evaporated. Prices will likely move towards 0.35 once psychological resistance at 0.30 $ is taken out. Expect this resistance to be minor.
http://mtgox.com/Documents%20and%20S...2%20hourly.pngNext regular update Wednesday, Jan 5th.
Your S3052