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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #361
  • Dec 19, 2007 10:45am Dec 19, 2007 10:45am
If you folks run out of things to read, check out skunny's thread on indicator free trading.
Not really sure how its indicator free if he uses fib levels, but anyways its
interesting reading. If you fig out what he talkin about please let me know.
I quit reading when he said "there's no such thing as a false breakout".
Anyways, I'm off to find a gunner or two about to make a raid lol
  • #362
  • Edited 11:14am Dec 19, 2007 10:56am | Edited 11:14am
ICED - Gotta be careful playing G/J. The guys over there are crazy, both sides throw too much money at s/r levels. Price action can get very comical
at times. The battles are interesting to watch when they get to it. I doubt gunners would fool around there when there's much better places to hunt.
I'm sure thats why John mentioned to stay away from G/j because price movement is not predictable.
  • #363
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:15am Dec 19, 2007 11:15am
Quoting FXNorm
ICED - Gotta be careful playing G/J. The guys over there are crazy, both sides throw too much money at s/r levels. Price action can get very comical
at times. The battles are interesting to watch when they get to it. I doubt gunners would fool around there when there's much better places to hunt.
I'm sure thats why John mentioned to stay away from G/j because price movement is not predictable.

Yep, I've been watching gbp/jpy for a couple months with my indicator system and it does have some wild swings but if you're on the right side it's nice!

I just couldn't resist the early morning set-up! I set the buy stop and then a tp @20 pips then nodded off. Woke up to check it just as it was passing 100 pips! If I had been awake I wouldve trailed the stop.
  • #364
  • Edited 11:56am Dec 19, 2007 11:41am | Edited 11:56am
Check out the break below 1.4373 today on eur/usd on 30 min chart, first hit was 9 hr ago, last hit was 2 hrs ago. Nice 50 pip no stress drop. Stop hunters? maybe, maybe not. Missed the price action.
  • #365
  • Edited 2:02pm Dec 19, 2007 1:51pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting FXNorm
Iced - I was in snooze land when "they" raided the longs, price dropped 160 pips in 1 hr
If you can watch the break you can keep your stop close instead of closing out at +20. Problem is the momentum may be to fast to react.
Just gotta fig this all out in the coming days. Least its simple.

Hey Blue! Liked your post over at skunny's, you have quite a talent.

Blue - What we need is an ea or something that will alert to several hits
on a s/r level BEFORE the price breaks. Then all we need to watch are trendline breaks and maybe 50% fib levels.
Watching 28 pairs and all these levels should produce lots of break points.
Your wish is my command. (way ahead of ya, man)

It's all tested and working.

Instructions:

Put it in "indicators" folder.
Restart platform or find it and compile
Drag onto chart
There's a "above" price and a "below" price.
If left at "0", there will be no alert
If you put a price in, that sets the alert and a line will be drawn at that price
If the ask goes above the "above" price, alert sounds
ditto bid below the "below" price
It is a pest, I designed it to wake me, it keeps going until you delete it
Right click on the chart, select "indicators", click on the name, and delete

This doesn't find S/R, it is just a simple breakout alert. I don't like entering with a stop on other methods, on this method it's OK. I guess this may not be helpful for JohnW's method.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Price Alert 1.1.mq4   2 KB | 934 downloads
  • #366
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:26pm Dec 19, 2007 4:26pm
I posted about trading with indicators for a record not for the argumentation.

Both methods PA and indicators can work well and both can fail at times.

Don't compete on terms of experience but don't understand why experience gives edge over dry analysis. Do you or market change the rules after placing
trade? If not, theory is as good as practice.
The weakness of indicators that many complain about is to do with wrong filtering. Improve on filtering to get it right.

re JohnW method - don't believe that it gives an extraordinary edge. There will be statistical loses coming his way. One weakness is - thinking that trend direction from daily has influence on direction of a breakout on 30 min frame.
Another weakness is - the assuming that all breakouts including false will be worth at least 20p forever in ratio of 240:6 .

My posts are not for arguing with anybody.
I like exchanging ideas.
screen action instead of price action
  • #367
  • Dec 19, 2007 5:49pm Dec 19, 2007 5:49pm
Quoting blueruby
USD/JPY

Trend and bias are down.

113.12 looks pretty good. Has been hit quite a few times, and has been breached a few times recently. There was a good trade on the 17th; the breach today (12/18) was good for 10, but not 20.
Good for 20. Wish I'd set it. Maybe I will right now, it's coming for a second helping.

Actually, I kinda like the entry right now for a range trade.

But, I'm already short the G/J and don't want to increase risk on that right now.
  • #368
  • Edited 6:54pm Dec 19, 2007 6:42pm | Edited 6:54pm
Hey Blue, Good luck with your trade.

I'm watching usd/jpy 113.50 round number and multiple hit top. My entry point would be 113.55, I'm hoping for some good price action if it gets there. Check it out, may take a while. (30 minute chart)
  • #369
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:07am Dec 20, 2007 10:07am
Looks like this thread is about dead!

In case someone stops by.....

I am still confused on bias vs trend. Please look at the chart, since the MA's indicate an uptrend (50 above 100) but price is turning down now, does this indicate that there is an uptrend with downward bias?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart 2.jpg Size: 211 KB
  • #370
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:37am Dec 20, 2007 10:37am
This method can be played in downtrends just as well. USD/CAD was played and it was in a downtrend over the last 6 months when the 240
wins were recorded.

Playing multiple hit top and bottom breakouts randomly (2-3 every day) wouldn't produce a 97% win rate in itself...there's something missing.

Taking only the best 2-3 plays every day and watching P/A at the breakout point would require an incredible amount of screen time waiting for the price to cross the breakout point. If that was done at all, its not mentioned how the P/A is applied.

Until the method of how the P/A is applied, achieving a 97% win rate will be difficult at best. Not many have done it.
  • #371
  • Edited 11:24am Dec 20, 2007 11:01am | Edited 11:24am
Hi ICED - You're right, without the key P/A this thread will die.

The 50 and 100 ma's should be pointing up. If one is starting to flatten out, the bias may have changed, it depends on how long the price moves sideways. The 50 ma will flatten out in a sideways ranging market. Ranging (sideways) markets will not produce a 97% hit rate.

Ideally, both ma's need to be reasonably parallel to eachother and sloping (pointing) up in an uptrend or down in a down trend. If in doubt, look for a perfect trending chart and apply the ma's to it, you'll get the idea.

There will be plenty of currency pairs that will have up or down sloping Ma's, and the breakouts can be played profitably even without the P/A.
  • #372
  • Dec 20, 2007 11:12am Dec 20, 2007 11:12am
Quoting FXNorm
Hi ICED - You're right, without the key P/A this thread will die.

The 50 and 100 ma's should be pointing up. If one is starting to flatten out, the bias may have changed, it depends on how long the price goes sideways. The 50 ma will flatten out in a sideways ranging market. Ranging (sideways) markets will not produce a 97% hit rate.

There will be plenty of currency pairs that will have up sloping Ma's, and the breakouts can be played profitably even without the P/A.

Hey FXNorm:

So far I like working with this "system", I've had 3 out of 4 good trades and these have been put on while I'm sleeping!! (maybe thats why its been working for me??)

Yeh, I wish JohnW would stop by every couple days just to answer a question or two but I understand why he doesn't. He gave us a method that he developed, no charge, no strings attached and still there are those that come in and try to rip it apart. Everyone should just take it for what it is, if it works for them great, if not move on to something of their choice.
  • #373
  • Dec 20, 2007 11:42am Dec 20, 2007 11:42am
FXNorm-

I appreciate the PM and will check it out.

Thanks
  • #374
  • Dec 20, 2007 4:44pm Dec 20, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting hanover
If (and I stress, IF) markets are completely random, i.e. a la Burton Malkiel, then nobody has a positive expectancy system. It follows that all wins are fortuitous; to think otherwise is to be "fooled by randomness". Any attempt at long-term profitable trading would be a pointless exercise.
But are you really sure about this? Could this be demonstrated with some sort of rigorous math? Indeed randomness can be identified, statistical tools that can say if a series of data is random or not exist and this means that randomness has some specific features. Is it really true that these specific features of randomness are made in such a way that one cannot use them to profit from a context in which this randomness is involved but, at the same time, is not the only face of the game?

With lotteries this is easy to answer because randomness is the ONLY element involved in the game, but trading is different, price movements could even be random, but there is still when you enter, which direction, MM, and so on that are not random. How can one really deduce, in a rigorous way, not just as a gut feeling, that the markets being completely random (supposing it could be demonstrated) is a sufficient condition to say that a consistent winning trading system could not be created?

On the other side, supposing we can demonstrate that markets are not random, would it be enough to say, in a rigorous and demonstrable way, that indeed this implies that a consistent winning trading system could surely be created? Nonlinear dynamical systems are HARD to tame, so even if you can demonstrate that markets are deterministic this would not automatically imply that there could ever be a way to "reverse engineering" the underlying process.

Also the definition of randomness itself can be misleading and phenomenons that in the past were believed to be totally ruled by randomness are today approached in different ways (with chaos theory, for example). So even if those same phenomenons still today (from a probability distribution point of view) maintains the same characteristics of the past (of course), we now are starting to believe that they are deterministic.

In the end this talking about the randomness or not of the markets, when applied to trading, seems to me not very much helpful in the advancement of trading techniques themselves, in the sense that one discovery or the other (random or not) would not rule out any possibility.
.Ubeee.
  • #375
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:36pm Dec 20, 2007 7:36pm
Not sure why you would not create an ea for this.
modified turtle could work?
Maybe a long would be

// ema + 50 > 100 and slope of 40 degrees~ maybe 20 > 50 > 100 ???


A lot would depend on how many times would be required before we guaranteed a solid resistance point on the 30?
thoughts on whether its worth seeing or do you want to add anything to it?
  • #376
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:47pm Dec 20, 2007 7:47pm
Quoting ICED
Looks like this thread is about dead!

In case someone stops by.....

I am still confused on bias vs trend. Please look at the chart, since the MA's indicate an uptrend (50 above 100) but price is turning down now, does this indicate that there is an uptrend with downward bias?

Thanks

It's subjective.
If I look at the last few weeks, I see a down trend.
If I look all the way back to the beginning of the chart, I see an uptrend.
  • #377
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:53pm Dec 20, 2007 7:53pm
Yes, looking back I see a lot of subjectivity also.
Probably not worth programming. I am kind of a get in the middle of a trend sandwich and eat whats left type of trader. This is breakout trading. Like anything else, when you get to the top or the bottom the market tends to turn evil
  • #378
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:25pm Dec 20, 2007 8:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
Ignorance is bliss.

Price is a leading indicator.

Everything else lags.

MA's
CCI
RSI
MACD
Stoch
Etc
Etc
Etc

Good start for a first post. Its all uphill from there.

i am not sure yet...so i'll just ask you which "leading" indicators do you use?
  • #379
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:28pm Dec 20, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting blueruby
Your wish is my command. (way ahead of ya, man)

It's all tested and working.

Instructions:

Put it in "indicators" folder.
Restart platform or find it and compile
Drag onto chart
There's a "above" price and a "below" price.
If left at "0", there will be no alert
If you put a price in, that sets the alert and a line will be drawn at that price
If the ask goes above the "above" price, alert sounds
ditto bid below the "below" price
It is a pest, I designed it to wake me, it keeps going until you delete it
Right click on the chart, select "indicators", click on the name, and delete

This doesn't find S/R, it is just a simple breakout alert. I don't like entering with a stop on other methods, on this method it's OK. I guess this may not be helpful for JohnW's method.

thanks a lot... great....any other neat tools?
  • #380
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:34pm Dec 20, 2007 8:34pm
Doesn't sound too evil to me. Either the price breaks out and runs for a 100 or so pips or it drops back in and you get stopped out for 30 pips.
According to John, you can bank 20 pips 97% of the time. Then according to me you can wait for the pullback, continuation and pick up another 100 - 200 pips a good % of the time. Happens all of the time, look at several of the gbp pairs yesterday the one's i seen were all perfect pattern breakouts. The trick is to combine middle feeding with end feeding. Pretty simple stuff, the hardest part is waiting for the setups.
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