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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #301
  • Edited 12:10pm Dec 18, 2007 11:50am | Edited 12:10pm
I took a trade short on gbp/jpy at 227.93 as price hit a dbl bottom on 30 min chart, also looking for the trendline break from the top of 229.12, so far the trade is in profit 20 pips. draw down was minor. price dropped to 227.73 lowest so far.

Price broke thru trendline, stopped at a bottom at 227.73 retreated back above trendline and dbl bottom , price now at 228.03

The downtrend line crosses at the dbl bottom at 227.73 a break of both should produce some pips. Price is dropping to 227.83

Time is 1pm tues est.
  • #302
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:55am Dec 18, 2007 11:55am
Quoting FXNorm
I took a trade on gbp/jpy at 227.93 as price hit a dbl bottom on 30 min chart, also looking for the trendline break from the top of 229.12, so far the trade is in profit 20 pips. draw down was minor. price dropped to 227.73 lowest so far

Darn! I'm in the same trade except in at 228.00, down 11 right now.
  • #303
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:04pm Dec 18, 2007 12:04pm
Agree. Or I'd like to see John W make live calls. I don't think we can judge his system by others making calls, since it seems to be quite discretionary. But if John makes the calls or posts his statements, maybe he can make more of us believers.

I still say 97%, even with a moderately bad risk/reward, is impossible in the long run. It's only feasible with something that kills its profitability, like a 3 pip target and 100 pip stop. But I'm willing to be proven wrong.


Quoting JFX81
Norm

Would LOVE to see people post proof of their live account results. Yet something tells me that those who lose doing this won't...
  • #304
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:18pm Dec 18, 2007 12:18pm
Everyone needs to make their own trades on demo. The system can't get any simpler. Why do we need proof?

I'm not trying to "prove" anything, just showing examples for a few newbie's even tho the examples are not perfect, its the basic idea.

All you guys want the holy grail and proof sheeeesh!
  • #305
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:22pm Dec 18, 2007 12:22pm
Iced - You may want to close the trade and wait for the break of 227.73 price has no momentum at the moment. Price needs to break s/r with MOMENTUM very important.
  • #306
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:22pm Dec 18, 2007 12:22pm
Let's recap:

1. Someone makes the following claim: "I have had 6 losses in the 240 trades taken since I started using my method. Unquestionably, it is the Holy Grail (and they say it doesn't exist - HA!)."

2. Others ask for proof (account statements, a large sample of live trades, etc.)

And this is unreasonable?



Quoting FXNorm
Everyone needs to make their own trades on demo. The system can't get any simpler. Why do we need proof?

I'm not trying to "prove" anything, just showing examples for a few newbie's even tho the examples are not perfect, its the basic idea.

All you guys want the holy grail and proof sheeeesh!
  • #307
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:27pm Dec 18, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting FXNorm
Iced - You may want to close the trade and wait for the break of 227.73 price has no momentum at the moment.

FXNorm:

Yeah, I closed out at 227.77 as it appeared to be bogging down.

I for one appreciate the trades you have been calling here - it assist in my learning.

Thanks
  • #308
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:28pm Dec 18, 2007 12:28pm
Quoting 24HourTrader
It doesn't matter if you are risking more than your reward on each trade if you have a high enough win rate. Especially with one as high as >90%. The odds of 2 consecutive losses with a >90% win rate are very low, and 3 in a row should almost ever happen, to say nothing of 10 in a row LOL.
Thanks 24hourtrader, do you trade this way ?
  • #309
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:32pm Dec 18, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting SunTrader
A 40% win rate strategy with the right R/R can win consistently. And a 90% win rate strategy with a poor R/R, unless executed perfectly each time, can be a loser.

+ + +

A 97% successful system over a long period is called

Don't know, because I have never heard of one.

Other than a pit trader scalping with miniscule commission costs and instantaneous execution. And almost every trader "that moves upstairs" into a trading firm forgets any thought of continuing to scalp. They know it is not practical.
I totally agree here, I want something that will be successful in the long run. not just for a short few months.

I plan to learn this thing and make a career of it. A retirement even some day.
  • #310
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:43pm Dec 18, 2007 12:43pm
Iced - Watch for a break of the downtrend line AND the dbl bottom at 227.73

Don't get excited folks, just an example of confluence where a trendline and double bottom meet.
The trade normally would be taken in the opposite direction on any other currency in an uptrend EXCEPT gbp/jpy
  • #311
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:54pm Dec 18, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting FXNorm
JFX, no thanks, I can't handle any system that can produce 12 losses in a row and still be a winner...I'll pass
Then that is probably the most unreal comment I have ever heard not just on this forum, but anywhere.

I can't believe it, someone who would turn down a WINNING SYSTEM.

Simply baffling.

That's like being able to reverse the odds on a casino and turning it down. Amazing.
  • #312
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:08pm Dec 18, 2007 1:08pm
You sit here for hours and hour and take 12 losses in a row, then come back and tell me how wonderful your (maybe) winning system is.

I doubt many on here have winning systems according to all the stats i hear. I think they're all talk.
  • #313
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:20pm Dec 18, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting FXNorm
You sit here for hours and hour and take 12 losses in a row, then come back and tell me how wonderful your (maybe) winning system is.

I doubt many on here have winning systems according to all the stats i hear. I think they're all talk.
First of all, I don't understand if there is a reading comprehension problem going on here or not because I never said I had a "system." In fact, I am a discretionary trader.

Secondly, you said you wouldn't trade a system that could produce a string of losses in a row but is still profitable.

I don't care if a system has 25 losing setups in a row as long as the P/L is profitable in the end.

If someone presented you with such as system why on Earth wouldn't you trade it?

And on the side of proof, who cares if people demo profitable trades? Demo execution and live execution (not even mentioning emotions) are vastly different.

Funny, even though you incorrectly assumed I had a specific system, you also went on to imply a "yeah right" attitude about it. Yet you haven't even asked JohnW, who claims 96% accuracy, to prove a thing.

What am I missing here?
  • #314
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:26pm Dec 18, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting JFX81
Then that is probably the most unreal comment I have ever heard not just on this forum, but anywhere.

I can't believe it, someone who would turn down a WINNING SYSTEM.

Simply baffling.

That's like being able to reverse the odds on a casino and turning it down. Amazing.
John, mathematically your argument is irrefutable, IMHO. Any method offering significant positive expectancy has got to be 100% acceptable.

But I guess it's understandable that some traders find a low win rate too difficult to stomach, emotionally, i.e. requires a higher degree of confidence in the method, in order to maintain discipline.

Also, higher win rate means greater consistency of income, which can be important if trading is one's primary source of income. For example, a system with a 40% win rate has a > 50% probability of 8 successive losses within any 50 trade sequence (see table here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=188593). For a trader who's averaging only 2 trades each week, 8 successive losses means no income to pay the bills for a whole month. Of course, eventually the wins will occur to compensate, but it's a case of keeping the creditors at bay in the meantime.

David
  • #315
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:33pm Dec 18, 2007 1:33pm
I don't believe in win expectancy ratios.

For example, 2007 for the Nicotina High Low Systems made a few thousand pips. In 2006 it lost a few thousand pips.

Same goes for tkimble's Daily System.

Because markets are random, and no two years are alike, it is impossible to gauge a ratio.
  • #316
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:33pm Dec 18, 2007 1:33pm
David

I agree with what you are talking about yet I found it pretty funny for anyone to outright state they wouldn't trade a method that they knew to be winning. If anyone truly knew a method was a winning one year in and year out, guaranteed, then they would pool as much money as possible together and take over the world in short order!

  • #317
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:35pm Dec 18, 2007 1:35pm
ICED - Do you have the 50 and 100 ma's on your chart? I assume you're using meta trader.
  • #318
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:39pm Dec 18, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting FXNorm
ICED - Do you have the 50 and 100 ma's on your chart? I assume you're using meta trader.
FXNorm:

Yes, I have 50 & 100 on the daily chart and I am using mt4.

Thanks
  • #319
  • Edited 2:29pm Dec 18, 2007 2:06pm | Edited 2:29pm
ICED - Always keep in mind that the market is RIGGED and that big money
will constantly gun for stops. (MHO) Thats the idea that JohW proposed as to the heart of this method...the more area's of confluence, fib's, (especially 50%) round numbers, dbl or more tops, trendlines with many hits etc will attract big money gunners. Always look closely for those area's and watch the price carefully as it approaches breakout. Studying the price action will reveal when you have a correct breakout, it takes a little time. I think that's what John meant when he said he can only show the method live.
  • #320
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:31pm Dec 18, 2007 2:31pm
Quoting FXNorm
ICED - Always keep in mind that the market is RIGGED and that big money
will constantly gun for stops. (MHO) Thats the idea that JohW proposed as to the heart of this method...the more area's of confluence, fib's, (especially 50%) round numbers, dbl or more tops, trendlines with many hits etc will attract big money gunners. Always look closely for those area's and watch the price carefully as it approaches breakout. Studing the price action will reveal when you have a correct breakout, it takes a little time. I think that's what John meant when he said he can only show the method live.
FXNorm-

Thanks for the info I appreciate it. Everything I have done up to now has been indicator based so I am finding it difficult to make the transition to PA based trading, as indicated in the above gbp/jpy trade. You saw the level at 227.93 whereas I saw 228.00. True its only a 7 pip delta but when your looking for a 20 pip move that is significant.

Thanks again
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