Powell: Inflation expectations in near term have risen

POWELL: IMPLICATIONS OF MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS UNCERTAIN Fed's Powell: Consumer spending is resliient. *POWELL: NEAR-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE UP IN RECENT WEEKS *POWELL: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE LAST SUMMER POWELL: ESTIMATE FEB PCE INFLATION 2.8%, CORE PCE AT 3.0%

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 17–18, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot” revised up to 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/5qflQVsz6A FED PROJECTIONS SHOW SEVEN POLICYMAKERS SAW NO RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE SEES RATES HIGHER IN 2027 FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT END OF 2026 VERSUS 4.4% IN DECEMBER PROJECTIONS

*POWELL: IF WE DON'T SEE INFLATION PROGRESS, WON'T SEE RATE CUT Fed's Powell: Most longer-term expectations are consistent with the 2% goal. FED'S POWELL: PROGRESS ON GOODS INFLATION IS KEY FOCUS; CRUCIAL TO SEE REDUCTION THIS YEAR POWELL: 'WE JUST DON'T KNOW' WHAT EFFECTS OF ENERGY RISE WILL BE FED'S POWELL: WON'T TAKE LOOKING THROUGH INFLATION LIGHTLY; ENERGY PASS-THROUGH QUESTION ONLY ARISES AFTER GOODS INFLATION BOX IS CHECKED; CONTEXT OF FIVE YEARS ABOVE TARGET MATTERS

FED'S POWELL: PAST RATE CUTS SHOULD HELP STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET. ... POWELL: INFLATION OVERSHOOT IS MAINLY FROM GOODS AND TARIFFS ... Fed's Powell: A long period of higher gas prices would weigh on consumption, but I don't know if that will happen. FED'S POWELL: IF EVER GOING TO SKIP AN SEP, THIS WOULD BE A GOOD ONE ... *POWELL: OIL SHOCK WILL PUT SOME DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON EMPLOYMENT

Fed's Powell: We're very strongly committed to keeping inflation expectations anchored at 2%. *POWELL: FED IS IN DIFFICULT SITUATION, NEEDS TO BALANCE RISKS POWELL: WHERE POLICY IS NOW IS THE RIGHT PLACE TO BE Fed's Powell: We don't want too restrictive a policy because of downside labor market risks. Fed's Powell: It is frustrating that non-housing services inflation hasn't come down.