US: Flash PMI signals faster economic growth in November, but price pressures also intensify | Crypto Craft

  • US: Flash PMI signals faster economic growth in November, but price pressures also intensify

    From pmi.spglobal.com

    US business activity growth accelerated for a second successive month in November, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen so far this year. Confidence in the year ahead outlook also improved markedly, notably reflecting reduced worries over the political environment and hopes for increased policy support to business. The improvement was led by the service sector, accompanied by a robust rise in manufacturing output. However, the factory sector also reported a marked slowing in order book growth alongside an unprecedented buildup of unsold stock. The pace of job ... (full story)

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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 6:54am
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Quoting Trader#40DC
bull or bear brooooo ?
Well, strong economic news (not that this is that strong) means the world is not ending. It also means the FED has less reason to cut, because the economy is strong. So, you have to ask yourself which is more important to the markets: the FED cutting because the economy is weak? Or, the FED not cutting because the economy is strong?

.....and if you can figure out what the FED will do, why the FED is doing it, and what the market reaction will be to that decision ahead of the occurrence, then you win the game (the further ahead of the event the better).....because I can tell you right now that not a single person in this WORLD knows the answer to that (seeing as we are so far away from the event itself)



Keep a close eye on /VX (or the VIX) today. If /vx rolls over and falls below 19, then the market has a chance to rally. If it stays bid (which seems to be the case) and remains in the 21-22 range, then we are in for a choppy day that likely turns red.....so sell your options now and start cheering for a vol collapse so you can pick up profit on the contraction regardless of market direction....Or just get long futures with me and wind up tucked in the fetal position crying when this thing drops hard core.
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Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 11:52am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} {quote} Fool: The David Bowie of trading! I'd say VC is less of a bear and more of a curmudgeony old coot shaking his fist at the markets and saying "you're acting all weird...cut your darn hair and tuck in your shirt!!!" Then he pulls out his belt and says "fine, you don't want to listen? I told you so...." as the markets do what they always do and "correct" behavior by falling. Then we start again after said correction and he's on the long side again saying "there, isn't that better with a haircut and...
That’s a spookily good description.
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Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 11:59am
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Quoting Trader#AFE7
There is no “bears” in control lol, when we are are in a 3 year bull market and other than a few days in April that were based on false information we have never violated those three year uptrend lines. Looking at a 5 minute chart and talking about “bears”, um ok, I guess. But a bull market is a bull market. Show me, anyone anywhere, the down trend lines in the last three years on the SPX chart. I posted here my target of 6600 when we went over 6k and was relentless attacked for that target. All the bears here have been wrong about everything everyday....

Bears in control “ November “.

I wish sometimes ( just once Mr 35T ) you’d leave that ego of yours at the door . Kick your shoes off , relax and learn that arrogance is not a nice trait . I’m sure in the real world outside of these forums you’re actually a good lad , humble, considerate .

I get on with ghost great , also TF and many others on here. I’m sure we can all have different views and positions , however one thing that we all agree on is courtesy to others .
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Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 1:32pm
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Sat on 6600 support .

Opex day complete. Monday open totally open for either side , I’m expecting more impulse moves in the first two opening sessions . Asia , then London should set the tone for a further shakeout or set the scene for a green/red weekly candle . Expecting volatility for the first two days before the trend should be in place .

Volatility ahead and decent ranges intraday
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 8:37am
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Quoting Trader#88DC
{quote} Yes, no one is selling stocks. They are just moving money from stock to stock. Therefore the SPX will never close below 6500 again. Never, ever, you heard it here first lol.
I appreciate the call....and would love to believe it. BUT, is this the same caller as "markets will gap up and go higher" (3% ago), "they will never allow 2 red weekly candles", now on 4 in a row (3 if you discount the gap up for the week starting 10/27), etc?

Don't get me wrong, I am on the same side as you. I wouldn't have thought we'd ever see a 1200+ point reversal yesterday on no news. The markets had it priced at less than a 1% shot...but it happened. And it hurt. To the tune of 7 figures.

All I'm saying is let's be careful throwing around terms like "never" or "always" when talking about markets.*

Unless the /vx tanks and gets back to 15-17 over the next few days, coinciding with a rip-your-face-off market rally, we're still in serious bearish territory. I'm long as can be, but another day like yesterday with the /nq moving down to 23000 and I will be capitulating with the best of them.

I thought TODAY could be the capitulation day, but without that vol collapse and a huge equity spike in the /nq, I'm not sold. The /rty is trying to get it done though and the SPXEW is also up 1.5%. The problem is that they are both still only at about 1/2 retraced from yesterday's moves while the VIX is well above yesterday's levels at this point in the move.


*not that any of your or my commentary in these tiny forums really matters in the grand scheme of things, but maybe our advice helps someone new to the trading world who is otherwise overwhelmed with 'certainty' regarding the market direction.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 11:28am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Bears have been in control the whole of November , every one of these pop ups has been actively sold off , yesterday a 200 point S&P retracement in 4 hours, and further down today . I’d be very careful getting carried away here , there’s a lot of trading and volatility to come before November ends . I wouldn’t be surprised to see the November low taken out before the Fed liquidity arrives December 1st . It appears a lot of traders are locking in their profits for this year .
Amen brother.

The Thanksgiving holiday next week is going to keep things a little wild...especially if the VIX stays high. Volume dries up and smaller actors can be very impactful.

To be honest, I'm VERY surprised that volatility has not fallen off a cliff with this rally. That SHOULD tell us something, riiiiight?

NVDA keeps cranking through resistances. /nq needs to break above 24600 with conviction to make a run to the prior highs. If we hit the down TL at 25200 by today's close, I'll send you a bottle of your favorite whiskey VC....may even hand-deliver it!
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 12:02pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} That’s a spookily good description.
Repressed childhood memories maybe? The subconscious is a crazy thing :-P


*PS: I like how we both used fictitious words
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 12:13pm
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Quoting Trader#62BD
Now if you want a correction or crash just look at some ai stocks and bitcoin, there was serious repricing there. But the SPX? Nope. Draw a channel from today back to when we first hit new highs near the end of June. That channel is the one of the tightest up channels I’ve ever seen. We are not being allowed to move. Compare that channel to any past time. It’s extremely narrow and the market just keeps going up in that narrow channel. When that channel breaks and we close under 6500, then sure let’s bring on bear talk. As I posted I was eager and...
First, charting doesn't work like that. You can't cherry pick dates and say "look at the tight channel".

But, let's for an instant assume you could (weekly /es attached). Isn't that exactly what a bull market phase resembles though. Right up until the top in the last few days of October....then it starts to roll over.

Breaking that channel should be a big indication of moving OUT of the prior zone of comfort. I mean, zoom out on the chart and look at some other time frames. The bullish phases have looked exactly as tight. Then, when broken, the magnitude of continuation outside said channel is the factor determining the duration/severity of the retracement?
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The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 11:54am
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If we can break the 11/20 NDX wick high by next Wed, I'll be a happy camper.
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 7:42am
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Quoting Trader#3EA2
Honestly I don’t understand why the ES isn’t falling, bitcoin tuned down and Nvidia dropped a lot, yet ES just flopping around the same level, no correlation right now. Hate to say it but I’m rooting for 6350.
the common critique of the SnP now is that 80% of its gains in the last 3 years are in the top handful of AI stocks. If that's true, or even mostly true, and the recession in the real economy is real, then we could be at the start of a 2-3 month slide to < 4,000.

Nah.....
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 9:28am
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RUT is the de facto canary in the coal mine for rate cut/hike sentiment. RUT up 3% today.

I only ever trade RUT anymore re: m/l binary opps on rate cut news. Even then, its pretty squirrely - it'll tight range for weeks and then pop of these 3-4% daily moves....
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 11:29am
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VC a bear, ffghost a bull, and I always swing both ways. Today though, I grabbed long positions in NDX, SPX, QQQ, and NVDA. Currently printing $$$ but I need follow thru up to Tgiving eve. Black Friday week is pretty reliably bullish, so let's go....
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 12:31pm
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Quoting ffghost
Here's the Covid recovery. Arguably as tight/tighter, and what we are all fearing circled (to mirror the prior chart) {image}
there are real threats to the AI bubble, but I don't think we're there yet. It could take months or years. As I have said many times....

- they don't have the elec power they need to power all the data farms that are being planned and built and it's not going to be possible to build generating and transmission capacity in the short time frame wherein it's needed;
- There will be continuing competition from the Chinese (and others) for chips that are more powerful and/or energy efficient that Nvidia's current top offering;
- several of the AI companies are funding huge capex with private debt - there are some obvious chances for risks in the associated private lenders to bleed into public debt markets

These are several reasons chip sales could slide or collapse, AI companies risk default on capex debt, etc. Not possible to predict when (or if) shit hits the fan, but it looks more and more likely, and markets may continue to sell off the AI names because of that. Or not...
Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 10:39am
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Free is market forces , price discovery . Of course we have overshoot both sides of the equation , due to the leveraged derivatives in play , unscrupulous players and the herd effect .

As much as a Fed official is entitled to give their “ own opinion “ ( it’s not outside of their remit ) it can be considered “ verbal intervention “ if we’re playing semantics re: manipulation .

What I find interesting is the absolute fear of markets free falling and the expectations built into the equation .

Goodness knows what happens if a Black Swan were to happen .
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Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 11:22am
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Bears have been in control the whole of November , every one of these pop ups has been actively sold off , yesterday a 200 point S&P retracement in 4 hours, and further down today .

I’d be very careful getting carried away here , there’s a lot of trading and volatility to come before November ends .

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the November low taken out before the Fed liquidity arrives December 1st . It appears a lot of traders are locking in their profits for this year .
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Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 11:35am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Amen brother. The Thanksgiving holiday next week is going to keep things a little wild...especially if the VIX stays high. Volume dries up and smaller actors can be very impactful. To be honest, I'm VERY surprised that volatility has not fallen off a cliff with this rally. That SHOULD tell us something, riiiiight? NVDA keeps cranking through resistances. /nq needs to break above 24600 with conviction to make a run to the prior highs. If we hit the down TL at 25200 by today's close, I'll send you a bottle of your favorite whiskey VC....may...
I’ve bookmarked this page ghost my friend . I do like my whisky . I hope it turns out good for you as I’ve got a few on from lower down but not married to the position.
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Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 11:40am
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Quoting The Fool
VC a bear, ffghost a bull, and I always swing both ways. Today though, I grabbed long positions in NDX, SPX, QQQ, and NVDA. Currently printing $$$ but I need follow thru up to Tgiving eve. Black Friday week is pretty reliably bullish, so let's go....
I’m fairness TF , I swing both ways ( in a trading context, nothing else lol )

I switch constantly in different timeframes, hedging with different instruments and assess the chart at the end of day looking for S/R levels . This volatility rarely comes around before settling into a more established pattern . We have however broke some important markers so I’m more cautious atm. .
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 7:04am
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.....and the market shrugs off in-line consumer sentiment/inflation expectation numbers.

/VX climbs to new cash market highs....equities take notice and drop (/nq off 1% from session highs)

.....moving to the corner to commence soft weeping....someone come get me if the bulls step in to reverse the downside movement...


P.S. NVDA is steal down here at $179. Go buy some.....like $500B worth. Tell a friend.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 7:30am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}Buyers will be back, don't worry. I doubt it would go below $160.

$160 = 23000 for /nq so I really hope you are right with the buyers back and wrong $16 too low on the number.....but this morning's action certainly supports your thesis
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 7:32am
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Quoting Trader#264E
{quote} I’m 164 bid for 100 shares, does that help?
Maybe move that up to an offer at $186 and see if you can pull the price back up to you? I mean those 100 shares are enticing enough, they might just do it!
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 7:35am
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Quoting yoltrader
From the PDF report itself: "Service sector costs rose at the fastest rate since January 2023. In contrast, manufacturing input price inflation cooled to the lowest since February but remained well above the average seen over the past three years." Another hint at that inflationary pressure is still around. No rate cut in December IMO.
38% chance yesterday, 75% chance today. These odds flip a lot.



Isn't it amazing how the market participants can all have varying theories?

At this point, it almost feels like no Dec rate cut would be "good" for the markets as cut odds are getting baked back in and the yet the VIX is flying higher...a Dec cut is starting to feel like it would be for the wrong reasons (emergency vs. maintenance).

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 7:55am
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Quoting Trader#3EA2
Honestly I don’t understand why the ES isn’t falling, bitcoin tuned down and Nvidia dropped a lot, yet ES just flopping around the same level, no correlation right now. Hate to say it but I’m rooting for 6350.
S&P isn't falling because the equal weighted index is UP over 1%. This means money is being rotated into the non tech names (hence the small caps also being up over 1% at the moment).

Check SPXEW and RUT.

The /nq is taking a beating because of the tech weighting being higher than the S&P.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 8:26am
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Quoting The Fool
well ghost I spent a few bucks on NVDA $200 call calendars Nov 26/28...for $300 I "control" 500 shares....for a few days. Will break even @ $190. We should get a rally into Black Friday...
That'a boy...see how the market responded? Up from $173 to $177.5 on your bullishness.

Now if only 5 million other people would do the same....

Better yet, why not have a few hundred thousand /vx contracts shorted. Drive it down to 18 or 17 in 5 minutes. That'd cause the algos to pump trillions back into the system. For $100 billion investment, the yield would be 1000x.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 9:38am — Edited
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Quoting The Fool
anyway, will the frickin market just pick a fracken direction & fruggin trend for a few days? sheesh.....
I dropped 10% of my /rty contracts on this move up. Probably far too early, but this is a big move, to be sure. Still, it's an "inside" candle (insane to think about a 3% up day being "inside") and, thus, not enough for bulls to declare a "win".

As for picking a direction, blame that on the VIX. It is knocking on the lower levels of support from earlier today/yesterday afternoon, so if it breaks, the /nq an /es should follow suit and continue tot he upside. A break above 24400 on the /nq (likely 24450 to be safe) should propel things to the 24600 level as a next target. That's nearly 2% up on the day at that point though, so it'll take a significant slide in the /vx to accomplish the move. I'm hopeful, but, as we've seen recently, a false breakout can put us back at lows in a hurry. ****PLEASE DON'T DO THAT TODAY MARKETS****

EDIT: oh, great, a 55 pt pullback after a breakout attempt on the /nq as I was wrapping up typing that last sentence....

EDIT # 2: if anyone had any doubts, it is clear that the markets don't give 2 $hits about my requests.....220 pts off the aforementioned failed breakout attempt despite the /vx teasing us to the downside for a whole 20 minutes. So much for that 2% /nq update reversal to 24600.....gonna take a whole lotta lovin in the afternoon to get there now.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 10:26am
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Quoting Trader#6299
CNBC admitting active market manipulation by the Fed. That is not anything new I guess. But why short if the Fed put is backed by unlimited money printing ability? I honestly wonder what markets would look like if they were actually free? https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/one-...r-so-much.html
Define "free".

Sure. FED tries to steer the economy by using its "tools". The White House tries to steer the economy by using its "tools" (where is my "it's a good time to buy stocks" truth social post today darnit...we need a boost!?!).

We can call it what we want with respect to manipulation...or we can simply acknowledge that every press release from a company is a "manipulation" by that company to effect a desired outcome, etc. Beyond that, it's simply an extrapolation to grander scales with respect to the FED/White House communications.

Question: if NVDA puts out a tweet that says a new chipset is coming or a new contract was awarded and the price moves up 5%, does that have a broader impact than a speech by a FED official about his thoughts on interest rates? I would argue, yes. Based on market cap, it certainly could.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 10:51am
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Quoting Vancarbon
These are the best trading markets for months . There’s a buy and sell button , remember everyone .
My sell button broken years ago.....I have been trying to get it fixed, but for whatever reason I just can't solve it.....need another 50 pts in the /nq after that nice stop hunt that transpired above the 24400 level....come on NVDA sell to China...
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 10:55am
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Quoting The Fool
NVDA shares make a great stocking stuffer!
Just caught a nice pop there, but dropping a little of that (giving it back too fast).

If China can now really buy chips though, that wasn't included in any NVDA forecasts, so this thing is very much underpriced.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...chips-to-china

Limited time offer: For every 10,000 shares of NVDA you buy (and hold through Dec 1), I will personally print you a gift stock certificate to give to your loved ones this holiday season....

I can't get past the pay wall, but it seems like even the IDEA of being able to sell to China is enough to pop this thing.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 11:09am
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Quoting Trader#3A8D
Also, from that Bloomberg article you can see why I previously posted that between Trump, the Fed, and the Treasury, they will do whatever it takes to force the market higher because that is good for them. I hate it as a free market person, but my 401k loves it.
I'm no economist, but I would venture a guess that the idea being floated has a lot more to do with the trade deal (dangling a carrot) than boosting NVDA's short term stock prices.....though it certainly helps the latter as well (and the white house doesn't hate that either).

Whatever the case, you wouldn't hear me complaining if the markets were at all time highs tomorrow. I'd be 80% out of the markets after an 8% up day for fear of a retracement, but I'd be happy to do so. Otherwise, let's just be slow and steady about breaking through these bearish points of resistance.

....Don't be confused though: saying "we are going back to ATHs soon" is a VERY hopeful statement. The "bears are in control" zone has A LOT of room to work before being done. It takes longer to climb out of those areas, but fingers crossed.

****Keep an eye on /vx though. Yes, it has come in a lot, but it is still quite high.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 11:42am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Bears

Quoting The Fool
VC a bear, ffghost a bull, and I always swing both ways. Today though, I grabbed long positions in NDX, SPX, QQQ, and NVDA. Currently printing $$$ but I need follow thru up to Tgiving eve. Black Friday week is pretty reliably bullish, so let's go....
Fool: The David Bowie of trading!


I'd say VC is less of a bear and more of a curmudgeony old coot shaking his fist at the markets and saying "you're acting all weird...cut your darn hair and tuck in your shirt!!!" Then he pulls out his belt and says "fine, you don't want to listen? I told you so...." as the markets do what they always do and "correct" behavior by falling. Then we start again after said correction and he's on the long side again saying "there, isn't that better with a haircut and nice, tucked in shirt?" as he rides it upward....then the cycle repeats itself.

The problem these days is that AI grabs his belt and starts beating HIM with it in an unexpected fashion......then it's a tug of war tumbling down the hill in the backyard (can't do it in the front or the neighbors get worried) until the bottom is reached and the walk back up commences.

.....and then, eventually, exhaustion sets in and you just stop fighting the markets, put on those long /nq positions, and go for a nice long walk (ah, that'll be the day)



But I digress: I'm glad your NVDA options (and other longs) are working in your favor Fool.....I need another 1600 /nq points of upside (without the gut-wrenching sell offs) and I can take the holidays "off" and relax (if there is such a thing).


For all you out there wondering what the heck all of THAT was, I'm just being playful.

....and for all of you wondering where the market is presently, keep in mind that until we break above yesterday's highs (and back above the 50 day MAs), this is still very much a DCB candidate....but know that I will be crying right there along with you if it fails into the close/beyond.
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 11:58am
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Quoting Trader#AFE7
There is no “bears” in control lol, when we are are in a 3 year bull market and other than a few days in April that were based on false information we have never violated those three year uptrend lines. Looking at a 5 minute chart and talking about “bears”, um ok, I guess. But a bull market is a bull market. Show me, anyone anywhere, the down trend lines in the last three years on the SPX chart. I posted here my target of 6600 when we went over 6k and was relentless attacked for that target. All the bears here have been wrong about everything everyday....
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Long term, yep. Bull market. But then when can we say bears are ever in control? Only after the markets have dropped 20% and until they bottom at which time you'd say "look, we've come 5% off the lows in 4 days, bulls are in control" (even though it is still down 30% from highs)?

IMO, or at least in my context, bears are in control right now because every attempted rally has been sold since 10/30. No, it's not saying we are in a bear market. However, there is a series of lower highs and lower lows forming on the daily chart. Yes, there was a bounce today. That was no doubt expected by bears and bulls alike. If it holds, and we break and hold above prior highs) aka 6792 for the /es, then we can start to say bulls are regaining control. However, even then, if the bearish TL still holds, there is a case to be made for who's holding the cards.

Don't get me wrong, everyone is allowed to read charts how they want to (and on what time frame), but you can't look at yesterdays brutal sell off and tell me for an instant that bulls were in charge (having first bid up the markets in the AM only to have an A top and the rug ripped out from underneath). Today's price action has been much more 2-sided (with pullbacks being bought, but existing none the less) for the /es and /nq. That said, for now, it looks like the bears took their foot off the gas (afternoon TBD), and I have been breathing a sigh of relief (though I'm not really liking the 150 drop in the /nq since 1:30 CST)

Here's hoping everyone has a great weekend and that some news comes out which helps us open flat (so no gap need be filled) and rally 2% to, oh, let's say 25% on Monday!
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 12:05pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I’ve bookmarked this page ghost my friend . I do like my whisky . I hope it turns out good for you as I’ve got a few on from lower down but not married to the position.
As the magic 8 ball says: "outlook not so good"
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The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 7:20am
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Quoting ffghost
..... P.S. NVDA is steal down here at $179. Go buy some.....like $500B worth. Tell a friend.
Buyers will be back, don't worry. I doubt it would go below $160.
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 8:02am
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well ghost I spent a few bucks on NVDA $200 call calendars Nov 26/28...for $300 I "control" 500 shares....for a few days. Will break even @ $190. We should get a rally into Black Friday...
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 9:29am
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anyway, will the frickin market just pick a fracken direction & fruggin trend for a few days? sheesh.....
The Fool
Nov 21, 2025 10:54am
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NVDA shares make a great stocking stuffer!
Vancarbon
Nov 21, 2025 10:41am
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These are the best trading markets for months .

There’s a buy and sell button , remember everyone .
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ffghost
Nov 21, 2025 12:18pm
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Here's the Covid recovery. Arguably as tight/tighter, and what we are all fearing circled (to mirror the prior chart)
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BaliBoyz80
Nov 21, 2025 6:53am
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will gold touch 4k price ?
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jhon117
Nov 21, 2025 6:53am
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Quoting Trader#40DC
bull or bear brooooo ?
bull
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yoltrader
Nov 21, 2025 7:03am
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From the PDF report itself: "Service sector costs rose at the fastest
rate since January 2023. In contrast, manufacturing input
price inflation cooled to the lowest since February but
remained well above the average seen over the past three
years."

Another hint at that inflationary pressure is still around. No rate cut in December IMO.
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yoltrader
Nov 21, 2025 8:44am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} 38% chance yesterday, 75% chance today. These odds flip a lot. Isn't it amazing how the market participants can all have varying theories? At this point, it almost feels like no Dec rate cut would be "good" for the markets as cut odds are getting baked back in and the yet the VIX is flying higher...a Dec cut is starting to feel like it would be for the wrong reasons (emergency vs. maintenance). https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
Thats because William said that he sees room for an interest rate cut in December. My projection/guess is that the odds will start falling again, the closer we get to the FED meeting.
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Haja7
Nov 21, 2025 6:55am
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GOLD TREND ?
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Trader#B713
Nov 21, 2025 6:58am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Well, strong economic news (not that this is that strong) means the world is not ending. It also means the FED has less reason to cut, because the economy is strong. So, you have to ask yourself which is more important to the markets: the FED cutting because the economy is weak? Or, the FED not cutting because the economy is strong? .....and if you can figure out what the FED will do, why the FED is doing it, and what the market reaction will be to that decision ahead of the occurrence, then you win the game (the further ahead of the event...
Rate cut in December went from 33% a couple days ago to 73% now. Not sure this data means anything at all with the vertical move up in % chance.
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Trader#2DDD
Nov 21, 2025 7:00am
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From the PDF itself: "Service sector costs rose at the fastest rate since January 2023 In contrast, manufacturing input price inflation cooled to the lowest since February but remained well above the average seen over the past three years."

For me thats another reason for the FED not to cut
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ongawwd
Nov 21, 2025 7:01am
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long nzd usd
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Trader#264E
Nov 21, 2025 7:15am
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Quoting ffghost
.....and the market shrugs off in-line consumer sentiment/inflation expectation numbers. /VX climbs to new cash market highs....equities take notice and drop (/nq off 1% from session highs) .....moving to the corner to commence soft weeping....someone come get me if the bulls step in to reverse the downside movement... P.S. NVDA is steal down here at $179. Go buy some.....like $500B worth. Tell a friend.
I’m 164 bid for 100 shares, does that help?
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Huziikhanx
Nov 21, 2025 7:22am
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Gold movement?
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Trader#3EA2
Nov 21, 2025 7:36am
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Honestly I don’t understand why the ES isn’t falling, bitcoin tuned down and Nvidia dropped a lot, yet ES just flopping around the same level, no correlation right now. Hate to say it but I’m rooting for 6350.
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Trader#3FC5
Nov 21, 2025 7:46am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}the common critique of the SnP now is that 80% of its gains in the last 3 years are in the top handful of AI stocks. If that's true, or even mostly true, and the recession in the real economy is real, then we could be at the start of a 2-3 month slide to < 4,000. Nah.....
Nvidia down 3%, PLTR down 3.5%, ORCL down 7% today.
SPX up on the day.

So much for ai being part of the SPX.
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Trader#88DC
Nov 21, 2025 7:59am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} S&P isn't falling because the equal weighted index is UP over 1%. This means money is being rotated into the non tech names (hence the small caps also being up over 1% at the moment). Check SPXEW and RUT. The /nq is taking a beating because of the tech weighting being higher than the S&P.
Yes, no one is selling stocks. They are just moving money from stock to stock. Therefore the SPX will never close below 6500 again. Never, ever, you heard it here first lol.
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Trader#C327
Nov 21, 2025 9:23am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} I appreciate the call....and would love to believe it. BUT, is this the same caller as "markets will gap up and go higher" (3% ago), "they will never allow 2 red weekly candles", now on 4 in a row (3 if you discount the gap up for the week starting 10/27), etc? Don't get me wrong, I am on the same side as you. I wouldn't have thought we'd ever see a 1200+ point reversal yesterday on no news. The markets had it priced at less than a 1% shot...but it happened. And it hurt. To the tune of 7 figures. All I'm saying is let's...
120 point SPX win for dip buyers today, I think that says everything that needs to be said. You can’t lose if you buy dips. We were literally on a knife’s edge for a big drop. The market is unstoppable. I’ve been saying for quite awhile that 6500 to 6550 is the support. It was tested multiple times and is unbreakable. Trump, the Fed, the treasury, will all do whatever it takes. Like I said before many times, the market can theoretically go down but I can’t think of anything that will break this market. Maybe when the SPX approaches 7500 or 8000.

But as always, a close below 6500 flips it, I just can’t see it happening. I was completely ready for it today, then the Fed went out of its way to save the market, call it manipulation if you wish but the facts are undeniable. Bitcoin and ES were falling hard, about to break critical support then magically the Fed came in at the exact time to save it.
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Trader#6299
Nov 21, 2025 9:46am
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CNBC admitting active market manipulation by the Fed. That is not anything new I guess. But why short if the Fed put is backed by unlimited money printing ability? I honestly wonder what markets would look like if they were actually free?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/one-...r-so-much.html
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Trader#3A8D
Nov 21, 2025 10:57am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Define "free". Sure. FED tries to steer the economy by using its "tools". The White House tries to steer the economy by using its "tools" (where is my "it's a good time to buy stocks" truth social post today darnit...we need a boost!?!). We can call it what we want with respect to manipulation...or we can simply acknowledge that every press release from a company is a "manipulation" by that company to effect a desired outcome, etc. Beyond that, it's simply an extrapolation to grander scales...
As you can see, I was right again, it’s only 100% now lol, that the markets can’t go down. They are not free because the Fed is intentionally intervening to keep equities up. The Fed should only involve themselves when there is a breakdown in markets. But that is not what they do. Thus the term Fed put was invented. How can you have free markets when a quasi government agency with no oversight and unlimited currency printing ability constantly intervenes in the market?

They will guarantee we enter yet another bubble and that bubble will ultimately burst. Why? Because that’s what they have done every time for decades. They have eliminated a lot of risk and fear with their Put so markets are incapable of correctly pricing risk.

Until then, just do what I do, buy the dip with a trailing stop and you literally can’t lose.
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Trader#3A8D
Nov 21, 2025 11:01am
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Also, from that Bloomberg article you can see why I previously posted that between Trump, the Fed, and the Treasury, they will do whatever it takes to force the market higher because that is good for them. I hate it as a free market person, but my 401k loves it.
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Trader#A52F
Nov 21, 2025 11:20am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} I'm no economist, but I would venture a guess that the idea being floated has a lot more to do with the trade deal (dangling a carrot) than boosting NVDA's short term stock prices.....though it certainly helps the latter as well (and the white house doesn't hate that either). Whatever the case, you wouldn't hear me complaining if the markets were at all time highs tomorrow. I'd be 80% out of the markets after an 8% up day for fear of a retracement, but I'd be happy to do so. Otherwise, let's just be slow and steady about breaking through...
I’ll disagree a bit, there are no bears. Just a buyers strike and bots of billionaires playing with the market. If there were bears we would break up trend lines, which we don’t, we would have two down weeks in a row, which we don’t, and we would break obvious support, which we don’t. Draw uptrend lines on your weekly chart going back years. April was an anomaly for literally a few days, then we were right back to being in our multi year uptrend line.

Spend some time with the SPX weekly chart this weekend and you will see what I mean. There are no bears and have not been in years. Just bouncing around in a obvious uptrend channel for three years. We touched the bottom of the channel intraday and look at what happened when we did.
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Trader#AFE7
Nov 21, 2025 11:49am
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There is no “bears” in control lol, when we are are in a 3 year bull market and other than a few days in April that were based on false information we have never violated those three year uptrend lines.

Looking at a 5 minute chart and talking about “bears”, um ok, I guess. But a bull market is a bull market. Show me, anyone anywhere, the down trend lines in the last three years on the SPX chart.

I posted here my target of 6600 when we went over 6k and was relentless attacked for that target. All the bears here have been wrong about everything everyday. Markets have always traded in channels. Going from the top of an up channel to the bottom of the up channel is not a crash, it’s not a correction, it’s not bears. It’s just the normal market movements. The three year uptrend is perfectly in place.

It’s funny to me how some like to live in their own selective memory and ignore what the chart shows.
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Trader#62BD
Nov 21, 2025 12:02pm
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Now if you want a correction or crash just look at some ai stocks and bitcoin, there was serious repricing there. But the SPX? Nope. Draw a channel from today back to when we first hit new highs near the end of June. That channel is the one of the tightest up channels I’ve ever seen. We are not being allowed to move.

Compare that channel to any past time. It’s extremely narrow and the market just keeps going up in that narrow channel. When that channel breaks and we close under 6500, then sure let’s bring on bear talk. As I posted I was eager and waiting for 6500 to break. Then magically the Fed and White House stepped in, what a shock lol.
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Trader#62BD
Nov 21, 2025 12:04pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Bears in control “ November “. I wish sometimes ( just once Mr 35T ) you’d leave that ego of yours at the door . Kick your shoes off , relax and learn that arrogance is not a nice trait . I’m sure in the real world outside of these forums you’re actually a good lad , humble, considerate . I get on with ghost great , also TF and many others on here. I’m sure we can all have different views and positions , however one thing that we all agree on is courtesy to others .
I honestly like everyone here except you. I can read between the lines of what you post, you are simply a bad human being in my opinion who is incapable of admitting when you are wrong. Again just look at months and months of us arguing countless points. One of us was wrong.
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Trader#69C9
Nov 21, 2025 1:41pm
Permalink
Quoting ffghost
{quote} First, charting doesn't work like that. You can't cherry pick dates and say "look at the tight channel". But, let's for an instant assume you could (weekly /es attached). Isn't that exactly what a bull market phase resembles though. Right up until the top in the last few days of October....then it starts to roll over. Breaking that channel should be a big indication of moving OUT of the prior zone of comfort. I mean, zoom out on the chart and look at some other time frames. The bullish phases have looked exactly as tight. Then,...
Well, I’m the only one here who correctly called the reaction to the debt downgrade, the Iran bombing, Gaza, called the top in gold, the bond market, the stock market for 7 months. So I’m thinking I know how charts work.

I posted to you to not be leveraged long overnight without protection when we were higher. So I’ll say once again no one with money uses ES charts, no one. How do million dollar traders get paid? I mean traders making a million or more a year? They get paid on closing prices of cash, not highs and lows of futures. Multi billion dollar funds judge themselves based on SPX closing prices, all mutual funds calculate NAV on cash closing prices.

But obviously I’m not welcome here, so good luck to you, and goodbye, I hope you do well.
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Dendra-Fix
Nov 23, 2025 4:17am
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Yet Gold still on the rise and looks to hit the 4k mark...

What are your thoughts, tho?
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Trader#40DC
Nov 21, 2025 6:48am
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bull or bear brooooo ?
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Trader#2B20
Nov 21, 2025 6:51am
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And yet gold still rises
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Trader#E943
Nov 21, 2025 6:51am
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bullish i guess!
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Trader#AB94
Nov 21, 2025 6:56am
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Is scalping on the Dow Jones okay?
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Trader#E14A
Nov 21, 2025 6:59am
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Bias: UP / supported

Reason: Stronger growth + re-accelerating price pressures → slower Fed cuts.
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Trader#35F5
Nov 21, 2025 7:48am
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What’s funny is that when ai stocks turn around the SPX will go up a lot, so I guess it can’t lose no matter what lol.
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Trader#6D1A
Nov 21, 2025 8:12am
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Everywhere buy usd win
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Trader#0843
Nov 21, 2025 8:16am
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I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. The strongest bull market of all time is exactly that. It’s a nice feeling to know the SPX can never go down again. My 401k will be happy.
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