Fed likely to cut rates again in October, and 3 other things we learned from Powell's press conference

An audible, weary sigh, followed by the slow adjustment of a pair of imaginary glasses.
Right. Another Fed statement to decode. Another episode of this monetary policy soap opera where every utterance is forward guidance and every sideways glance is scanned for hints of hawkishness. Here's the breakdown, delivered with the appropriate level of exhilaration.

On the Timing of Cuts: A Real Gamble, Apparently.
The Committee, in its infinite wisdom, took the path of least resistance: a paltry 25 bps. Predicting another cut in October is a take so bold it's almost banal. With only one jobs report before the October FOMC, it's like predicting the sun will rise, but only after checking the UV index futures. December? Oh, that's a "close call." Translation: we'll have two more months of data to over-analyze into complete meaninglessness. The chasm between the Fed's dot plot and market pricing isn't a signal of chaos; it's just the market betting on Powell's eventual replacement. Perfectly rational.

On Tariff Inflation: The Grand Illusion.
The official narrative is that tariff inflation is a "one-off." A transitory spike. Why worry about persistent supply shocks when you can simply "look past" them? The fact that wage growth remains anemic despite a tight labor market—thanks, anti-immigration stance—is being used as justification. Perfect. One wonders what it would actually take for them to "change their tune." Hyperinflation? Probably still transitory.

On the Internal Drama: Circling the Wagons, Really.
A single dissent. One. After all the media hype, we were promised a rebellion and instead we got forced, awkward consensus. The analysts' interpretation is delightful: FOMC members "circled the wagons" to show support for Powell and Fed independence. Translation: they temporarily shelved their internal squabbles to avoid looking like a complete circus in the face of administration hostility. The real battle wasn't over yesterday's cut, but about getting other members to pencil in three cuts for 2025. Monetary policy as a long-term strategy game. Thrilling.

On the Market's Misreading: A Surprise? Zero.
The market misunderstood the phrase "risk-management cut." Shocker. Instead of reading it as a signal the Fed is prepared to act preemptively (i.e., dovish), they read it as a "meeting-by-meeting" approach (i.e., hesitant). Guha is correct: a risk-management cut is inherently accommodative. It means the bar for action is lower. But the market wanted a blood oath commitment to a full easing cycle and threw a fit when it didn't get it. Next time, Powell should just use a PowerPoint of nothing but emojis.

In summary, the Fed delivered the exact promised drama: a minimal cut, divided projections, and a narrative carefully constructed to keep all options open while desperately trying not to spook anyone. The usual, predictable, brilliant farce of monetary policy.

Are we done? Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to get back to monitoring swap spreads. They're more exciting.

I wish I knew the reason and the logic behind this assumption because Powell was pretty hawkish with his statement. I admit I didn't read the article, but the headline is so bold that I just had to post my reaction to it. Anyways we do not know what will really happen next. What we know is that the biggest reason for interest rate cut for now remains Trump's pressure on the FED.

Questa vita brutto

Thank you for the positive feedback on my attempt to find humor in the algorithmic absurdity we now call "news."

You've precisely identified the core issue: the grand narrative is now penned by the shareholders of panic and manufactured consent. Mainstream outlets, those proud subsidiaries of the Military-Industrial-Media complex, don't report the news—they auction it to the highest bidder, then spin the results into a 24/7 loop of outrage-lite and distraction.

Satire—the last refuge of the intellectually honest—and a brutally uncompromising, reality-based worldview are no longer just options; they are our only necessary defense mechanisms against the curated insanity. It's the only way to process the fact that the "free press" often reads like a press release written by a lobbyist who's had a lobotomy.

So, we must laugh. Not because it's funny, but because the alternative is to believe the headlines. And that way lies madness.

Grazie. Now, back to monitoring the only charts that truly tell the truth: price action and volume. They can't be bought... yet.

Worthy of a for the humour element .

Yes yes yes I am mad Totally mad about making money.
Anyways follow me. One year has approximately 260 trading days. Three years would make 780 trading days. Making 1% daily on FOREX trading is absolutely not difficult and not impossible.
This is how you calculate that:
1000 x (1.01^(780)) = 2 347 856$ where 1000 is your initial deposit, 1.01 is the 1% daily increasing of your balance. This is powered by 780 which is the number of trading days during one year.
Very simple. Try it.

had to subscribe to you for more great content in the future .

Wow man nice writing!!!.....

Are you mad? Be practical and think realistically.

Perhaps something like that might help Trump, actually, understand, just, a little, bit?

Tariffs = :uncertain: :unknown: :downtrend: :dumb:
Rich = :gold:
Poor = lowed: :dead:
Employment = :empty:
People = ;(

Trump cut the interest rate today, FED has decided nothing LoL

Powell is a very careful person in doing things. He mentioned further rate cuts will be based on employment rate and tariffs impact on inflation and economic overall.

Don't do it