Powell: No widespread support for 50 bps cut today; No need to move quickly, waiting was right call | Crypto Craft
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ntrpy
Sep 17, 2025 1:48pm
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FOMC Statement Summary
○ Fed cut rates by 25bps to range of 4.00 - 4.25%, as expected.
○ One dissent from Stephen Miran, voted for 50bps cut; major dovish surprise
○ Signals immediate split within committee towards more aggressive easing.
○ Median dot for '25 fell to 3.625%, confirming base case of three total cuts for this year.
○ Statement language dovish; removed word "solid" to describe labour market, replaced w/ "Job gains have slowed."
○ Crucially, added phrase "downside risks to employment have risen."

1. Statement & Miran Dissent
○ Shift from "solid" job growth to "job gains have slowed" and explicit mention that "downside risks to employment have risen" is Fed validating core thesis.
○ Clear signal that reaction function has pivoted to prioritise employment mandate.
○ Miran dissent, already in favour of larger cuts, is powerful signal & key surprise.
○ Dovish wing of the committee already becoming impatient.
○ Immediately shifts market's perception of Fed's "centre".
○ If 50bps cut is already on table, makes future cuts seem far more likely.
○ Negates "hawkish cut" narrative in S/T.

2. Dot Plot
○ '25 Median @ 3.625% aka dovish base case scenario. Confirms market's pricing for total of 75bps cuts this year.
○ Median dots for 2026 (3.4%) and 2027 (3.1%) also shifted lower, confirming lower for longer trajectory.
○ Median forecast for '25 unemployment rate held at 4.5%; not forecasting spike in unemployment despite weak jobs data last week.
○ Pre-emptive rate cuts for easing cycle, supportive for risk assets, protects employment rate L/T.

3. Balance Sheet
○ Implementation note shows no change to pace of QT.
○ Continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury and agency MBS at same pace.
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NotAtrader
Sep 17, 2025 3:22pm
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Quoting Tony112
Yea. {image} {image}
Trumpty Dumpty sat on the wall(street).
Trumpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the FED's nurses and all the FED's men.
Couldn't put Trumpty together again.
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Tony112
Sep 17, 2025 1:49pm
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Yea.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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shawkat2025
Sep 17, 2025 3:42pm
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Good Job Mr. Powel, Miran hehe
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ashgoth
Sep 17, 2025 1:58pm
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Suck your balls Trump
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Trader#E3EE
Sep 17, 2025 1:59pm
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Quoting ntrpy
....
You are a gem ntrpy. Thank you.

Surprised to see only one 50bps'er.

Trump will be pulling out the "You're Fired"... I'd say.

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Trader#E3EE
Sep 17, 2025 2:05pm
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I also think this will ease markets somewhat, even if only momentarily. In that the fed won't be bullied. They all kept it real, except one of course. Even that was acceptable and in-line. Not outrageous like all the Chooky Little's are, always, screaming.

Don't beat your head to anyone else's drum other than that of your own making.

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Trader#3ADB
Sep 17, 2025 2:39pm
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Quoting ntrpy
FOMC Statement Summary ○ Fed cut rates by 25bps to range of 4.00 - 4.25%, as expected. ○ One dissent from Stephen Miran, voted for 50bps cut; major dovish surprise ○ Signals immediate split within committee towards more aggressive easing. ○ Median dot for '25 fell to 3.625%, confirming base case of three total cuts for this year. ○ Statement language dovish; removed word "solid" to describe labour market, replaced w/ "Job gains have slowed." ○ Crucially, added phrase "downside risks to...
you had a chance to watch the Q&A?
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Trader#7881
Sep 17, 2025 1:44pm
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rip bull run
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Trader#80D9
Sep 17, 2025 1:49pm
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eurusd buys all day long
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Trader#4008
Sep 17, 2025 1:54pm
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Quote
Our Job Is To Make Sure It Is A One-Time Rise In Inflation

That's funny
Reply

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