Trump pushes for 15%-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods - FT

Quoting HonzaD

Disliked

{quote} Let's talk about products that have the alternative of importing them from another country. If Trump imposes tariffs on all imports, nothing actually happens, only the American consumer pays a higher price. If such a product could be supplied by an American manufacturer - tell me, where is such a manufacturer today? What is its name, where is it located? When the consumer buys imported products instead. Or how long will it take before such an entity is created? These are examples where the tariff will be passed on to the consumer and it...

Ignored

Along the right lines in that we can't foretell where and to what degree the effects of tariffs will bear out. What we can't tell is how much of a moat each company has in terms of monopoly and fat margins or competetition and slim margins, such that eeach company in the logistical chain has a very different view.

If a company has fat margins it might be able to take some hit to retain market share but a monopoly with fat margins has the muscle to just pass on the costs. A company with slim margins has to pass on the cost unless in a competitive market such that the business has to make different decisions, such as laying off staff, no longer investing or just going bust.

Economies are amoebic and if you decide to take a hefty tax charge (and a tariff is effectively an additonal sales tax), then the effects will seep out into a number of other areas. Phased out over a long time, it'll take a long time to seep out and because of that I suspect the effect will NOT be transitory as some seem to think.

35T

Jul 18, 2025 11:46am

Quoting ffghost

Disliked

Only 15-20%? Well, I think we know where this settles then... And it will be below either of those #s.

Ignored

Isn't that always the way? Ask for huge numbers, settle on something reasonable. Every day that we get closer to actually implementing any of these tariffs the numbers go down. Those saying that 30% tariffs on everything would be terrible might be right, but the final numbers won't be anywhere close to that.

Stocks and bonds didn't react at all to this announcement.

The Fool

Jul 18, 2025 2:03pm

Quoting ffghost

Disliked

{quote} You are correct in the magnitude of the moves decreasing....

Ignored

Plus it's Summer. The trading bots are all at their bot mansions in the Hamptons and Saint-Tropez. There hasn't been a significant down move for SPX since April opex.

FourxTwoxs

Jul 18, 2025 12:23pm

So, somehow Trump is the most cunning and clever negotiator by tweeting out tatriff figures minute by minute, instead of negotiations being done officially behind closed doors and announced when they are finalized?

ffghost

Jul 18, 2025 11:53am

Quoting 35T

Disliked

{quote} Isn't that always the way? Ask for huge numbers, settle on something reasonable. Every day that we get closer to actually implementing any of these tariffs the numbers go down. Those saying that 30% tariffs on everything would be terrible might be right, but the final numbers won't be anywhere close to that. Stocks and bonds didn't react at all to this announcement.

Ignored

Agree on strategy and also on "didn't react at all". Well, I guess, to be fair, equities did dip a bit specific to the news, allowing for a quick scalp across the board....but I am not waiving any victory flags for picking up 40 pts/contract in /nq.

ffghost

Jul 18, 2025 1:53pm

Quoting 35T

Disliked

{quote} We used to get multiple hundred point SPX moves on these announcements, then 100, next 50 points, today less than 10. Bit more now but it is hard to say if equities down today has anything to do with this or just a normal profit taking day from all time highs. As long as 6200 holds there is literally no "down" in this market, up or chop sideways.

Ignored

You are correct in the magnitude of the moves decreasing. It helps that these announcements are happening when the VIX is in the 16 handle vs the 30 handle, of course....otherwise, the moves should be inherently larger.

That said, if ever the administration wanted to make a big, "market impacting" decision, you just articulated Bessent's first public answer to why the market tanked on that decision. "I don't think the market is doing anything unexpected. We were at all time highs and it is taking a bit of a breather. This has NOTHING to do with our decision....." ....now where have I heard something like that before????

Jul 18, 2025 12:19pm

Quoting PatienceFx

Disliked

he is helping BRICS countries directly by turning everyone against usa , his own companies are suffering due to higher input costs

Ignored

this is either some genius 20D chess move and we're all idiots, or... the obvious. Just let them make their own bed i say.

Jul 19, 2025 3:11am

Quoting Schweet

Disliked

Tariffs are a complete reset on world trade. The weak countries that have been leeching off the USA economy will suffer. The USA corporations will source new suppliers when tariffed countries get too expensive. The American consumer will have to endure a short period of inflation, but it will level out. The crazy thing will be when other countries start realizing Trumps tariffs are working for America and start imposing their own tariffs.

Ignored

Once inflation goes up, it NEVER goes down, nothing will ever "level off".
The economic literacy (hell literacy in general) of Americans is appalling.

ocd

Jul 18, 2025 3:25pm

Quoting Konigharald

Disliked

Well not good for German economy

Ignored

Does it really matter?

"The Bundesbank expects real GDP to grow by 0.3% in 2024, followed by 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026." Their issues are not related to the US or Trump.

Jul 18, 2025 1:02pm

Quoting Trader#E14A

Disliked

In the end price elasticity will always be a thing, you the customer decides how much you are willing to pay, and the seller will need to readjust.

Ignored

You have already bought it and the seller has their money. They don't need to change anything.

In the meantime the importer or shipper or someone else in the USA you are forcing to pay the tariff will go broke.

Jul 18, 2025 3:09pm

Quoting HonzaD

Disliked

{quote} The problem would arise if the total tariff amount were so high that the consumer would already reject such a product because of high price. Here, everyone in the trade chain would then discount according to their capabilities. Manufacturer, importer, transporter, end seller...

Ignored

The overseas manufacturer or the overseas seller has nothing to do with the tariff. Once they have been paid and post off the product, that's it.

If the person in the USA did not buy the overseas product because the tariff was so high then there is no tariff issue. Strawman.

If the consumer refuses to pay the tariff, then someone/everyone in the chain in the USA will simply have to add the cost of the tariff onto its service, so the consumer pays anyway.

The shipper/importer/retailers aren't a charity, they have a business to run.

Retailers like Walmart operate on about a 3% profit margin. Perhaps much less.

Maybe you would like them to lay off workers or annoy their owners by not making a profit, in order to "absorb" the tariff that is meant for the consumer. That's just Socialist thinking. And yes, that's an oxymoron.

Jul 21, 2025 2:03am

Quoting HonzaD

Disliked

{quote} You're a terrible theorist. "The overseas manufacturer or the overseas seller has nothing to do with the tariff. Once they have been paid and post off the product, that's it." But how much were they paid...??? The full price as before, on which then suddenly comes the duty and the customer happily pays the whole thing? Will no one have pressure to influence the price as a result of the duties, so that trade does not stop because of the high price for the customer?

Ignored

The overseas seller/manufacturer/exporter are paid pre-tariff price.

The customer pays the bundled price. The tariff goes to USA Treasury.

If the folk in the USA chose to not buy the imported good, then yes, trade will stop, by definition.

In case that conclusion isn't obvious, it is one of the objectives of tariffs, to stop people in the USA buying so many imports.

There's really no need to call me a terrible theorist. President Trump might be, though.

Jul 21, 2025 2:11am

Quoting HonzaD

Disliked

{quote} But Walmart is just 1 of 4 links in the entire chain. If their margin is only 3%, then you must add the margin of the person who produced/grown the product, transport - export, transport - distribution in the given country and then there is Walmart as the end seller. If the total of all margin was only 3%, tell me exactly who is working at a loss or with a margin of 0%. In my opinion, no one, and that is why I am talking about the fact that if the tariffs are around 15% and the total margin of the entire chain is around 20% in total, then...

Ignored

Profit margin. Nobody operates at a loss (for long, anyway).

I don't get your point, should you have one. Businesses protect their profit margin.

To "absorb" the tariff would require them to eat into the profit margin, and they cannot do that for more than how long before they all go broke.

There are some businesses who will have to absorb it should the tariff be a component in their production, because they cannot increase their prices. They are price takers. Farmers, for example. They will go broke.

The Fool

Jul 18, 2025 1:55pm

I bet it hurts to wear them dress shoes all day when your feet are swolt up like watermelons.

Jul 18, 2025 12:35pm

Jul 18, 2025 11:26am

Only 15-20%? Well, I think we know where this settles then...

And it will be below either of those #s.

Jul 18, 2025 12:18pm

A reciprocal rate of over 10% at least, it's at least a pure 10% tax on americans. Just like he did with China.
At this point i wonder if everyone in the US shut down their brains.

Jul 19, 2025 6:04am — Edited

Abouelzelouf

Jul 18, 2025 12:07pm

He negotiate like I do in the bazar!

Jotunnonus5

Jul 18, 2025 11:24am

Genial!

Trader#833D

Jul 18, 2025 11:27am

Good for Dollar, bye Euro and Gbp, bearish.

35T

Jul 18, 2025 11:59am

Quoting ffghost

Disliked

{quote} Agree on strategy and also on "didn't react at all". Well, I guess, to be fair, equities did dip a bit specific to the news, allowing for a quick scalp across the board....but I am not waiving any victory flags for picking up 40 pts/contract in /nq.

Ignored

We used to get multiple hundred point SPX moves on these announcements, then 100, next 50 points, today less than 10.

Bit more now but it is hard to say if equities down today has anything to do with this or just a normal profit taking day from all time highs. As long as 6200 holds there is literally no "down" in this market, up or chop sideways.

Jul 18, 2025 12:24pm

USD - it is difficult to assess the impact on the dollar when there is the threat of Powell's dismissal. But in my opinion, within the EU, everyone expected the introduction of tariffs, they were just discussing how much they would be in the end. Now the question is whether the market did not expect higher tariffs and whether the euro will not start to strengthen. Personally, I think that for a number of important products, the margin can be at the level of 20%. So if the tariffs were below this level, there would be a fair amount of room for trade from Europe not to stop and for it to bring only very slight inflation to the US. For example, a 15% tariff seems to me to be a win-win for both sides. On the other hand, a tariff of, say, 30% would lead to a halt in trade from Europe and a counter-reaction from Europe.

Jul 18, 2025 2:37pm

Quoting Schultz

Disliked

{quote} You have already bought it and the seller has their money. They don't need to change anything. In the meantime the importer or shipper or someone else in the USA you are forcing to pay the tariff will go broke.

Ignored

Let's talk about products that have the alternative of importing them from another country. If Trump imposes tariffs on all imports, nothing actually happens, only the American consumer pays a higher price. If such a product could be supplied by an American manufacturer - tell me, where is such a manufacturer today? What is its name, where is it located? When the consumer buys imported products instead. Or how long will it take before such an entity is created? These are examples where the tariff will be passed on to the consumer and it will not limit anyone in the entire trade chain. The problem would arise if the total tariff amount were so high that the consumer would already reject such a product because of high price. Here, everyone in the trade chain would then discount according to their capabilities. Manufacturer, importer, transporter, end seller. But in my opinion, this is not the situation in the case of 15 - 20% tariff. The market can easily absorb this, each of those 4 entities will take a small cut from their margin or partially (slightly) transfer it to the consumer.

Schweet

Jul 19, 2025 2:57am

Tariffs are a complete reset on world trade. The weak countries that have been leeching off the USA economy will suffer. The USA corporations will source new suppliers when tariffed countries get too expensive. The American consumer will have to endure a short period of inflation, but it will level out. The crazy thing will be when other countries start realizing Trumps tariffs are working for America and start imposing their own tariffs.

Schweet

Jul 19, 2025 3:55am — Edited

Just a little snippet for the pencil necked libturds.
Yes, inflation in the US has been dropping. While it recently ticked up slightly, the overall trend is one of decreasing inflation. The annual inflation rate rose to 2.7% in June 2025, which is the highest it's been since February, but still below the 9% peak seen in June 2022, according to CEPR and Trading Economics. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose slightly but remained below forecasts.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Overall Trend:
The US inflation rate has been declining from its peak of 9% in June 2022, reaching 2.4% in March 2025 and then rising to 2.7% in June 2025, according to CEPR and Trading Economics.
Recent Increase:
The annual inflation rate rose for the second consecutive month in June, climbing to 2.7% after being at 2.4% in May.
Core Inflation:
While core inflation also increased slightly, it remained below forecasts, indicating that the rise in the overall inflation rate was primarily driven by other factors.
Factors Contributing to Rise:
The increase in June was partially due to rising prices for food, transportation services, and used cars and trucks.
Factors Contributing to Decline:
Despite the recent rise, energy costs have continued to decrease, with gasoline and fuel oil prices declining, though natural gas prices remain elevated.

Jul 20, 2025 12:03pm

Quoting Schultz

Disliked

{quote} The overseas manufacturer or the overseas seller has nothing to do with the tariff. Once they have been paid and post off the product, that's it. If the person in the USA did not buy the overseas product because the tariff was so high then there is no tariff issue. Strawman. If the consumer refuses to pay the tariff, then someone/everyone in the chain in the USA will simply have to add the cost of the tariff onto its service, so the consumer pays anyway. The shipper/importer/retailers aren't a charity, they have a business to run. Retailers...

Ignored

But Walmart is just 1 of 4 links in the entire chain. If their margin is only 3%, then you must add the margin of the person who produced/grown the product, transport - export, transport - distribution in the given country and then there is Walmart as the end seller. If the total of all margin was only 3%, tell me exactly who is working at a loss or with a margin of 0%. In my opinion, no one, and that is why I am talking about the fact that if the tariffs are around 15% and the total margin of the entire chain is around 20% in total, then the business will not stop.

Jul 20, 2025 12:14pm

Quoting Schultz

Disliked

{quote} The overseas manufacturer or the overseas seller has nothing to do with the tariff. Once they have been paid and post off the product, that's it. If the person in the USA did not buy the overseas product because the tariff was so high then there is no tariff issue. Strawman. If the consumer refuses to pay the tariff, then someone/everyone in the chain in the USA will simply have to add the cost of the tariff onto its service, so the consumer pays anyway. The shipper/importer/retailers aren't a charity, they have a business to run. Retailers...

Ignored

You're a terrible theorist. "The overseas manufacturer or the overseas seller has nothing to do with the tariff. Once they have been paid and post off the product, that's it." But how much were they paid...??? The full price as before, on which then suddenly comes the duty and the customer happily pays the whole thing? Will no one have pressure to influence the price as a result of the duties, so that trade does not stop because of the high price for the customer?

Konigharald

Jul 18, 2025 11:29am

Well not good for German economy

goldmk

Jul 18, 2025 11:30am

He woke up again and changed the tariff.

MethodX

Jul 18, 2025 11:33am

Higher higher this is nothing bro higher!!
Guess eur and chf are now after gbp the pairs to start shorting vs majors...juicy

WisanTrades

Jul 18, 2025 11:37am

addicted to tariffs, another day, another tariff, non-stop

Mushtaq1314

Jul 18, 2025 11:46am

trump card

Trader#F97A

Jul 18, 2025 12:14pm

Tariffs set at a gazillion %
Tariffs now at 10%
Tariffs start tomorrow
Tariffs start in 90 days
Sack Powell
Im not sacking Powell

And he wonders why he's called TACO..
Best thing about going senile?? You have no clue you are......

Bayoutigers8

Jul 18, 2025 12:15pm

Good, they have tariffs on us, make em pay

Stopcry

Jul 18, 2025 12:20pm

STOP TALK trump

Trader#E14A

Jul 18, 2025 12:38pm

When you order something from these countries, refuse to pay the tariff when you get the bill, they will collect it from the shipper and shipper along with the seller will have to deal with it, not you as the customer. They will either eat it or raise the price; you then shop for a better deal or don't buy the item. In the end price elasticity will always be a thing, you the customer decides how much you are willing to pay, and the seller will need to readjust.

Trader#134C

Jul 18, 2025 11:27am

usd bullish?

Trader#BCBF

Jul 18, 2025 11:27am

EUR then also pumps 😂

Trader#134C

Jul 18, 2025 11:29am

eurusd to 1.16000 till the end of the day maybe?

Trader#DFAB

Jul 18, 2025 11:30am

He has no idea. His team has no idea. Therefore NO ONE has any idea where we are all headed.

Trader#3215

Jul 18, 2025 11:32am

Will gold go up?

Trader#7A3E

Jul 18, 2025 11:35am

You are not the king of the world this backfire BIG time

Trader#9166

Jul 18, 2025 11:35am

Not Good

Trader#E14A

Jul 18, 2025 11:37am

make it hurt, thats not enough, it needs to be more than 50%

Trader#F737

Jul 18, 2025 11:45am

straight to my tp

Trader#E3AE

Jul 18, 2025 11:45am

Give him a few minutes to close his position then he will deny all of it.

Trader#E428

Jul 18, 2025 11:46am

If teriff impose on EU that mean no friendship between EU and USA. EU should make relationship with Russia.

Trader#81DA

Jul 18, 2025 11:49am

wow

Trader#B082

Jul 18, 2025 11:54am

Another QUACK!

Trader#2BE0

Jul 18, 2025 12:01pm

Trump is playing with market, USA people please send him to court, and judge him

Trader#1FA9

Jul 18, 2025 12:29pm

Thank you Trump love you madarchod

Trader#6011

Jul 18, 2025 12:52pm

I will set Tariff of 50% on EU and all 27 EU members are going to pay ! am I genius ? Yes, of course

Trader#141E

Jul 19, 2025 1:47am