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ECB preview: A high burden of proof
The ECB believes that policy rates are “in a good position.” This does not rule out further rate cuts, but the bar for additional easing is very high. It requires a material deterioration of the outlook. We don’t expect this, and we believe that the ECB has reached the end of the current cutting cycle. That said, uncertainty about trade policies remains a key risk to our forecast. Pending the ongoing EU-US trade negotiations, there is no reason for the ECB to move on rates. For that same reason, we expect little new guidance from President Lagarde this month as policymakers await the outcome of trade talks, and ... (full story)
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