US Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025 | Crypto Craft

  • US Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025

    From bea.gov

    Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable ... (full story)

Added at 7:38am

  • Core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, more than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

    From cnbc.com

    Prices that consumers pay rose slightly in May, while the annual inflation rate moved further away from the Federal Reserve’s target, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation reading, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective levels of 0.1% and 2.3%. Excluding food and energy, core PCE posted respective readings of 0.2% and 2.7%, compared to estimates for 0.1% and 2.6%. Fed policymakers consider core to be a better ... (full story)

Comment Options
EventsTrader
Jun 27, 2025 7:47am
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Core PCE came in a little hot. PCE 2.3% y/y; core 2.7%. Both nearing the lower bound of the Fed’s 2%–3% comfort zone. Core PCE has proven to be a little sticky though.

Story of this release is the drop in government social benefits and its impact on income and spending. A trend likely to continue.

Last month saw a notable pullback in income, especially government transfers, pushing consumers into drawdown territory. Goods spending bore the brunt of retrenchment (autos, fuel), while essentials-led services (housing, health) held up. Price pressures remain subdued but sticky in core components.

Core PCE (ex-food & energy) rose 0.2%, matching April’s pace but down from March’s 0.3%. Services prices climbed about 0.2–0.3%, with shelter (rent & owners’ equivalent rent) and health-care services accounting for the bulk of the rise.

Biggest spending gains:
- Housing & utilities $13.7B
- Health care $11.3B
- Other nondurable goods $8.6B
- Clothing & footwear $5.3B


Personal income: –0.4% and disposable personal income: –0.6%, the largest DPI drop since early 2021, driven by lower government social benefits.

Personal saving rate eased to 4.5% of disposable personal income (from 4.9%), as real disposable income fell faster (–0.7%) than outlays (–0.3%).

Largest spending declines:
- Motor vehicles & parts: –$49.3B
- Gasoline & other energy goods: –$19.8B
- Food services & accommodations: –$10.6B
- Financial services & insurance: –$5.7B
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Vancarbon
Jun 27, 2025 7:33am
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Reduced GDP , inflation slight increase , personal income decreased , reduced consumer spending.

A slowing economy and inflationary pressures
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DuranDuran
Jun 27, 2025 8:29am
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Socialist Security payments are down .5% (due to removing dead people from the payroll). Income from wages and salaries are up .4%. So the private sector is growing, public spending is falling. Sounds like a win to me
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Vancarbon
Jun 27, 2025 9:07am — Edited
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Quoting MisterWho
{quote} Your first argument in your first comment was GDP, which is not part of today's data, I didn't mention GDP in my responses but I could have. And that closing line about a slowing economy and inflationary pressures feels a bit disconnected from the actual reaction we saw today. Nothing more. {quote} When you cut spending, lower taxes and regulations, and boost domestic production, the economy grows. And for some reason, that seems to bother a lot of people these days.
Yes , I was multitasking and mistook the Canadian GDP. , forgetting it was released yesterday .

When you cut spending, lower taxes and regulations, and boost domestic production, the economy grows. And for some reason, that seems to bother a lot of people these days.

I have no issues with that .

When you add 2.5 trillion to an already unsustainable fiscal deficit, yes I have a problem with that .

Also look at the Medicaid cuts in the bill .
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MisterWho
Jun 27, 2025 8:53am
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} You mentioned the GDP and didn’t address that . My post was a summary of today’s data - no more, no less. You’re reading into it way too much .


Your first argument in your first comment was GDP, which is not part of today's data, I didn't mention GDP in my responses but I could have. And that closing line about a slowing economy and inflationary pressures feels a bit disconnected from the actual reaction we saw today. Nothing more.

Quoting DuranDuran
Socialist Security payments are down .5% (due to removing dead people from the payroll). Income from wages and salaries are up .4%. So the private sector is growing, public spending is falling. Sounds like a win to me {image}
When you cut spending, lower taxes and regulations, and boost domestic production, the economy grows. And for some reason, that seems to bother a lot of people these days.
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MisterWho
Jun 27, 2025 9:27am
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Yes , I was multitasking and mistook the Canadian GDP. , forgetting it was released yesterday . When you cut spending, lower taxes and regulations, and boost domestic production, the economy grows. And for some reason, that seems to bother a lot of people these days. I have no issues with that . When you add 2.5 trillion to an already unsustainable fiscal deficit, yes I have a problem with that . Also look at the Medicaid cuts in the bill .
No worries, too many threads going on at once, I guess.
I know you don't have an issue with it, that part was actually a reply to DuranDuran.
I'm sure you'll agree that plenty of people do, though... I don't waste those kinds of messages on lucid folks
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BillyIdol
Jun 27, 2025 7:33am
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STAGFLATION
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The Fool
Jun 27, 2025 9:38am
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Quoting ocd
All the negativity and yet minutes ago the S&P just hit an all time high. Had Biden or Obama taken the exact same steps, you would have roared with approval. Just admit you're allowing your political opinion to ridiculously influence your decision making.
Sure. It goes both ways, though. SnP hit 70 new ath's in 2023, 57 in 2024. All the while, the GOP-aligned press constantly bemoaned the Biden economy. The fact is, stocks will do what they do: they will find a way to go up, regardless. Stairs up, elevator down - this means stocks go up until there is some kind of momentary (or rarely, longer than momentary) exogenous event or news that shocks them into a sudden down move. All this means for the savvy investor is BTFD.

I expect stocks to rally hard in early July as Congress approves Trump's BBB and ushers in a new wave of tax breaks and deregulation. There will be news about tariffs, but much of that is already baked in. After a rough start thru much of the 1st half, you can probably expect the second half to deliver xx new ath's.
Vancarbon
Jun 27, 2025 7:50am
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Quoting MisterWho
{quote} Are we cherry-picking data here? Ignoring the Durable Goods Orders (which just came in strong) gives you a skewed view. Be careful
This is the report I think you’re referring to MisterWho .

Beyond Aircraft-Related Pop, US Durable Orders Steady in May
The 16.4% pop in durable goods orders in May is the biggest headline increase since 2014 when a bumper crop of aircraft orders boosted the headline number in a dramatic way.

From wellsfargo.bluematrix.com

It was skewed by one off factors . I think what I posted is balanced .
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Vancarbon
Jun 27, 2025 8:23am
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Quoting MisterWho
{quote} Hmmm balanced, I've seen you more balanced but also way less balanced, let's discuss that: Consumer spending may have pulled back slightly, but it was coming off strong levels. Personal income fluctuates month to month (positive last months) so without context or prior revisions, the picture is incomplete. You can't call an analysis balanced when it's based on just four negative data points—at least not if you want to be taken seriously. Now, what do the markets tell you? Do you see doubt, fear, or trust? Do you think the markets agree with...
You mentioned the GDP and didn’t address that .

My post was a summary of today’s data - no more, no less. You’re reading into it way too much .
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ocd
Jun 27, 2025 9:23am
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All the negativity and yet minutes ago the S&P just hit an all time high. Had Biden or Obama taken the exact same steps, you would have roared with approval. Just admit you're allowing your political opinion to ridiculously influence your decision making.
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MisterWho
Jun 27, 2025 7:44am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Reduced GDP , inflation slight increase , personal income decreased , reduced consumer spending. A slowing economy and inflationary pressures
Are we cherry-picking data here? Ignoring the Durable Goods Orders (which just came in strong) gives you a skewed view. Be careful
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MisterWho
Jun 27, 2025 8:19am
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} This is the report I think you’re referring to MisterWho . Beyond Aircraft-Related Pop, US Durable Orders Steady in May The 16.4% pop in durable goods orders in May is the biggest headline increase since 2014 when a bumper crop of aircraft orders boosted the headline number in a dramatic way. From wellsfargo.bluematrix.com It was skewed by one off factors . I think what I posted is balanced .
Hmmm balanced, I've seen you more balanced but also way less balanced, let's discuss that:

Consumer spending may have pulled back slightly, but it was coming off strong levels.
Personal income fluctuates month to month (positive last months) so without context or prior revisions, the picture is incomplete.
You can't call an analysis balanced when it's based on just four negative data points—at least not if you want to be taken seriously.

Now, what do the markets tell you? Do you see doubt, fear, or trust?
Do you think the markets agree with your post?
Right now the answer is clear, tomorrow, who knows.
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Trader#978D
Jun 27, 2025 8:45am
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You know the number one, and I do literally mean #1, sign that someone is a losing, failed trader who needs to quit? Thinking that you are smarter than the market. Commenting on a piece of news in an attempt to say how terrible things are while the actual market hit an actual all time high. Seriously, are people here really this stupid?

Look at the bad news, look at the bad news, stocks will crash because I have an opinion of this “bad” news.

Then we hit an all time high lol, idiots.
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Trader#436F
Jun 27, 2025 9:51am
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Quoting Trader#978D
You know the number one, and I do literally mean #1, sign that someone is a losing, failed trader who needs to quit? Thinking that you are smarter than the market. Commenting on a piece of news in an attempt to say how terrible things are while the actual market hit an actual all time high. Seriously, are people here really this stupid? Look at the bad news, look at the bad news, stocks will crash because I have an opinion of this “bad” news. Then we hit an all time high lol, idiots.
They don't understand liquidity and that it's institutions moving price to sweep these areas of high liquidity. Institutions with their billions in capital move the market - period! It's not retail traders with their small bank accounts and it's not news or data. It's liquidity sweeps! Their draws on liquidity are already priced into each news/data release regardless if the news/data is good or bad.

Monthly/Weekly/Daily Hs/Ls have areas with the most liquidity - in that order! Other areas for intraday are Asia and London Hs/Ls and RTH Open/Close gaps. Ignore the haters on here venting and focus on price and areas with large amounts of liquidity because institutions WILL SWEEP THEM! Think like a bank, not like a retail trader!
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CycleGF
Jun 27, 2025 7:33am
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Personal income and spending both down big way ...not good ...DXY will crash
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CycleGF
Jun 27, 2025 7:47am
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GDP down, Personal income down, personal spending down, pretty much US economy is Down, so the Fed must reduce the Rate ...
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CycleGF
Jun 27, 2025 7:54am
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Plus the Germans and Italians are asking for their Gold , which the US doesn't have .... It's not a good situation to be in.
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DanyFeature
Jun 27, 2025 7:39am
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Goldy up after sell off I guess
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DanyFeature
Jun 27, 2025 7:51am
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Not to forget GDP was very bad
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Kuchdara
Jun 27, 2025 7:34am
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September cut
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SFT90
Jun 27, 2025 7:36am
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Lmao
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Anon12345678
Jun 27, 2025 7:38am
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Good for dollar
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Trader#762A
Jun 27, 2025 9:46am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}Sure. It goes both ways, though. SnP hit 70 new ath's in 2023, 57 in 2024. All the while, the GOP-aligned press constantly bemoaned the Biden economy. The fact is, stocks will do what they do: they will find a way to go up, regardless. Stairs up, elevator down - this means stocks go up until there is some kind of momentary (or rarely, longer than momentary) exogenous event or news that shocks them into a sudden down move. All this means for the savvy investor is BTFD. I expect stocks to rally hard in early July as Congress approves Trump's...
You are right. Snp500 corrected, now it is bullish. Stock market is up bullish. Investors will find anyway to keep the market up. Good for us too as we can do what institution traders do and make money.
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TradingPlanz
Jun 28, 2025 4:41pm
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I think it’s important to remember no matter what the news lines say we are above old highs that were retested three different times. Retracement to follow….
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Trader#1548
Jun 27, 2025 7:37am
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I think they are building the storyline (Smoke) for $ index and then they will pull the rug in the ending of the year (2025).
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Trader#D7F1
Jun 27, 2025 7:45am
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Less spending, slow economic growth
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Trader#24C0
Jun 27, 2025 7:46am
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:o
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Trader#15C7
Jun 27, 2025 7:46am
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Waiting for orange man to tweet about something he doesn't like to rattle the markets
This is all because of Trump. Not factoring in the BBB
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Trader#15C7
Jun 27, 2025 7:53am
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Funny that no news is good news because trust in the USA has been completely eroded
Trump is a bull in a China shop
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Trader#5893
Jun 27, 2025 7:55am
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good
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Trader#762A
Jun 27, 2025 9:27am
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Usd falling. Sell usd.
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