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  • #1,721
  • Mar 10, 2023 2:30am Mar 10, 2023 2:30am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Ryan, you have repeated your criticism of traditional technical analysis for years now. Your history post dates back to many years when you brought this matter up on Andy's discussion thread. You have also posted pictures to explain clearly the point that you try to make. All this I write can be checked against Ryan's post history. Despite your continuous efforts of good intent, highlighting specific technical trading matter, its been time and time again brushed off, and turned into forum politics by the same people. Dismissing the specific...
you are using charts and price action yourself though? as far as i understood it, ryu is saying its all waste and dont work, maybe i understood wrong..
Also why is it waste of time to help others and give information? what else is this forum for mate?
  • #1,722
  • Mar 10, 2023 2:48am Mar 10, 2023 2:48am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} No. Support and resistance are NOT the points on the historical charts. You can say AFTER that it hopefully WAS. But in a moment (live) you can't say it. I have explained it many times. Hide the candles or the right and answer yourself a question what is the difference. Also remember that ANY impact can change the direction on the market. I saw it million times when your 10$ trade can trigger stop loss cascade/ Unfortunately if you say what you say that mean you don't understand how market works and your head is full of forex fairy tales....
Well,
nice bro, ive been trading volume and order flow too but havent made it work.. maybe i didnt understood it in depth.
if u want to trade forex, index, etc, and not scalp, but daytrade for a few hours per position, what should you focus on? Or is it impossible, because order flow is for a few minutes and then changes, and charts "dont work"?
  • #1,723
  • Mar 10, 2023 3:35am Mar 10, 2023 3:35am
Don't you think there are might other data(information) other than volume?

I mean for FX
  • #1,724
  • Edited 5:07am Mar 10, 2023 4:37am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting dinpappa
{quote} Well, nice bro, ive been trading volume and order flow too but havent made it work.. maybe i didnt understood it in depth. if u want to trade forex, index, etc, and not scalp, but daytrade for a few hours per position, what should you focus on? Or is it impossible, because order flow is for a few minutes and then changes, and charts "dont work"?
I'll not trade forex because of min lot size. It is 0.01. So my min position size is 100$, and if I trade with 100$ I have a liquidation price at 0.5%.
So to trade on forex I need to have at least 100000$. I think this is not possible for 99% traders here. And if you have less then you have 100% chance to lose all. You have negative expectation always.
If we are talking about crypto, then min lot size on inverse is 1$, and on perpetual futures, for doge for example, it is 0.08$. See the difference?
So I'm as a trader can't affort myself to risk that much.

Regarding to the charts. All you have on forex is open, close, high and low data. If you can say something about what happening on the market using that data they you are a wizard. Because then you are able to see what is not seen. Let's say if you can talk to dead and see the invisible this is only your problem, not ours. I don't believe in that.

Anyway I don't want to discuss fairy tales, magic and dreams here. There are a lot of threads around with that shit. Here we discuss volume trading.
Observer effect
  • #1,725
  • Mar 10, 2023 8:18am Mar 10, 2023 8:18am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I'll not trade forex because of min lot size. It is 0.01. So my min position size is 100$, and if I trade with 100$ I have a liquidation price at 0.5%. So to trade on forex I need to have at least 100000$. I think this is not possible for 99% traders here. And if you have less then you have 100% chance to lose all. You have negative expectation always. If we are talking about crypto, then min lot size on inverse is 1$, and on perpetual futures, for doge for example, it is 0.08$. See the difference? So I'm as a trader can't affort myself...
Okay, but what kind of orderflow tools are good according to you?
Also, my understanding of order flow (volume) is that, it is only predictable for the next seconds, minutes, so basically trading a position for 50+ pips does not work because charts are useless? Or have i misunderstood?

Also, you mean that u want to trade less than 0.01 lots? I dont really understand why you dont trade forex because of lot size.. I have traded 0.01 lots on a 100 dollar account and it works just fine
  • #1,726
  • Mar 10, 2023 10:10am Mar 10, 2023 10:10am
Quoting dinpappa
{quote} Okay, but what kind of orderflow tools are good according to you?
I'm using websockets data to collect live trades.

Quoting dinpappa
Also, my understanding of order flow (volume) is that, it is only predictable for the next seconds, minutes, so basically trading a position for 50+ pips does not work because charts are useless? Or have i misunderstood?
First of all avoid using words like "predict". There is nothing to predict here. If you have data then you can calculate everything you want. If you don't have data, then yes, you have to predict. Next. What you mean 50 pips? Why not 49? Why you think market care that you want to earn 50 pips? What if it can give you 35? Or 154? Where that number came from?

Quoting dinpappa
Also, you mean that u want to trade less than 0.01 lots? I dont really understand why you dont trade forex because of lot size.. I have traded 0.01 lots on a 100 dollar account and it works just fine
Your problem that you don't know basic math. Or you don't know how to calculate effective leverage you are using. If so, then that mean that you don't have proper risk management implemented. That mean your expectation is negative against the exchange. That mean you will lose it is just a matter of time.
It is impossible to trade 0.01 lot size with 100$ account. That mean you are using 100x leverage for every trade. Even if you have 500 max then your liquidation price will be too close and there is no way you can really manage it.
Observer effect
  • #1,727
  • Mar 10, 2023 10:26am Mar 10, 2023 10:26am
Quoting ryuryu
Don't know if you are interested in that EA? {image}
hi sir ,
read ur post which are super great and looking forward to it . so how can i join u ?
  • #1,728
  • Mar 10, 2023 10:42am Mar 10, 2023 10:42am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I'm using websockets data to collect live trades. {quote} First of all avoid using words like "predict". There is nothing to predict here. If you have data then you can calculate everything you want. If you don't have data, then yes, you have to predict. Next. What you mean 50 pips? Why not 49? Why you think market care that you want to earn 50 pips? What if it can give you 35? Or 154? Where that number came from? {quote} Your problem that you don't know basic math. Or you don't know how to calculate effective leverage you are using. If...
interesting ryu.
Why im talking about 50 pips is because usually, thats a couple of hours of movement, but orderflow/DOM/level2, usually only predicts the following MINUTES of movement, so orderflow is useless for the bigger intraday moves, or? Maybe its useful for that too, idk, thats why i asked.
  • #1,729
  • Edited 12:36pm Mar 10, 2023 12:08pm | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting dinpappa
{quote} interesting ryu. Why im talking about 50 pips is because usually, thats a couple of hours of movement, but orderflow/DOM/level2, usually only predicts the following MINUTES of movement, so orderflow is useless for the bigger intraday moves, or? Maybe its useful for that too, idk, thats why i asked.
Yes I understand what you are talking about my friend. I just said that if you hit the wall in the orderbook, then you will never get your 50 pips. You can get 48. So if you hit it better to exit than wait and pray will it be eaten or not.

I never used delta volume for daily timeframes. In fact I'm trading only on 1m and lower, so I just don't know will it show something or not. Try it, may be there is the edge too. BTW I can try to test it. I can create a dashboard with, for example 1H tf delta. Then we can check if 3-in-a-row works as good as on lower TFs.

BTW, I think I can start prop firm challenge with my new MT5 forex bot. I think it will survive with 1:30 leverage. So next week we will see if prop firm is not a scam haha
Observer effect
  • #1,730
  • Mar 10, 2023 1:02pm Mar 10, 2023 1:02pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Yes I understand what you are talking about my friend. I just said that if you hit the wall in the orderbook, then you will never get your 50 pips. You can get 48. So if you hit it better to exit than wait and pray will it be eaten or not. I never used delta volume for daily timeframes. In fact I'm trading only on 1m and lower, so I just don't know will it show something or not. Try it, may be there is the edge too. BTW I can try to test it. I can create a dashboard with, for example 1H tf delta. Then we can check if 3-in-a-row works as...
oh thats what u meant, i gotcha now brother
I used to scalp stocks with level2 and timeandsales, which worked OK, but now that i trade forex mostly, i prefer trading the 15/30 min timeframe, and honestly, becoming profitable trading forex is much harder.. for me atleast, and its probably because there is no volume data as far as i know.
How would you use volume data on forex pairs, like eurnzd, etc? What website also?
  • #1,731
  • Mar 10, 2023 5:03pm Mar 10, 2023 5:03pm
Quoting ryuryu
BTW I can try to test it. I can create a dashboard with, for example 1H tf delta. Then we can check if 3-in-a-row works as good as on lower TFs.
Hi Ryan, this is what I have been pestering RickM about. If you got the time, try it and let us know how it goes. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #1,732
  • Mar 11, 2023 4:20am Mar 11, 2023 4:20am
Quoting dinpappa
{quote} oh thats what u meant, i gotcha now brother I used to scalp stocks with level2 and timeandsales, which worked OK, but now that i trade forex mostly, i prefer trading the 15/30 min timeframe, and honestly, becoming profitable trading forex is much harder.. for me atleast, and its probably because there is no volume data as far as i know. How would you use volume data on forex pairs, like eurnzd, etc? What website also?
When you are talking about timeframe it also make no big sense for me. For example why we should start new calculations every 900 seconds? Why not every 100000$ filled for example?
Have you ever think about it? Try to create candles that will start to form after 100k$ buys and sells will fill it. And you will see that all that "candles" are purest finest bullshit. They represent nothing. It is like watches. Yes, they show time. The candles shows open high close and low. That is all. No more data. Nothing more. You can't look at the clocks and say "oh, tomorrow will be rainy". Because clocks don't provide that data. Same shit with candles. It is fake and lie that you can "predict" the price movement using candlestick data. Charts shows the past. And only high, low, open and close values for selected timeframe.
Observer effect
  • #1,733
  • Edited 1:05pm Mar 11, 2023 12:39pm | Edited 1:05pm
+55.46% today
How are you?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 17 KB


I have new strategy for you guys. But to manage it first you must pass the exam.

The questions are:
1. What is the difference between market and limit orders?
2. What stop orders are?
3. That is orderbook?
4. What orderflow contains?
5. How to calculate the effective leverage?
6. If you have 123 lot size short position at price 200, and now price is 250, how many lots you need to sell more to get average price 223?

I'll give that strategy (can be applied to forex or crypto or whatever) to one who will pass the exam.



Also guys, I think I have made a mistake. I was trading only 50x leverage coins and never look at 25x and 12.5 too. But, since I'm not trading more than 0.5x leverage (half of 1x), then max leverage of the coin is not important. So next days I want to change the code and check all the assets we have depending on the volume and distance. I think that can give us more profits.

----------------------------
And last but not the least.
I think I'm doing a lot for the Forex Factory community.
If FF owners think it is not so, then it is ok to move my thread to commercial section. I don't care.
But as I see in every bullshit thread there are million of shit scam links but only I can't post link even for my totally free github bots and scripts.
I find it unfair.

So, as I said, I don't care if admins will ban me or move my thread to the commercial section. If so, then I'll move to another forum.

Here is the links:

1. My website where you can find live data for crypto, what to trade and even free API: https://aadresearch.xyz
2. My discord trading room where we share ideas and discuss trades: https://discord.gg/g28g7TdM (the invite will expire in 7 days)
3. My github with free bots, scripts: https://github.com/ryu878

Stay tuned, let's see who will win in this battle: greedy scammers with fancy lines and forex fairy tales, who always complain on me, or your best friend Ryan
Observer effect
  • #1,734
  • Mar 12, 2023 3:45pm Mar 12, 2023 3:45pm
* A market order is an order to buy or sell at the current market price. A limit order is an order to buy or sell at a specific price.
* A stop order is an order type used in trading to limit a loss or lock in a profit.
* An order book is a list of buy and sell orders that are currently available in the market.
* Order flow refers to the real-time buying and selling activity that takes place in the market.
* Effective leverage = Total value of open positions / over all account value
* 29 lots
  • #1,735
  • Mar 12, 2023 11:46pm Mar 12, 2023 11:46pm
Quoting madhfriendz
* A market order is an order to buy or sell at the current market price. A limit order is an order to buy or sell at a specific price. * A stop order is an order type used in trading to limit a loss or lock in a profit. * An order book is a list of buy and sell orders that are currently available in the market. * Order flow refers to the real-time buying and selling activity that takes place in the market. * Effective leverage = Total value of open positions / over all account value * 29 lots
True, but we should think about in a different way if we want to make some decent money.

* Market order is the Aggressor
* Limit orders is the prey
* Stop Order is free money if you can find it.
* Order book is where the prey hide
* Leverage is essential for traders with small minds.

If 80% of traders lose, that means 80% of traders are on the wrong side of the market. Be brave and reckless by doing what seems wrong, go against your gut feelings (because your gut hates the shit you throw down your throat anyway) and trade like a girl (no insult intended) - trade against popular opinion 😎
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,736
  • Mar 13, 2023 7:41am Mar 13, 2023 7:41am
I started this response last night and now this morning I've gone and injured myself. I need to tend to myself, so I'm posting this as an incomplete response for the moment...

Quoting ryuryu
1. What is the difference between market and limit orders?
Market orders TAKE liquidity, whereas limit orders PROVIDE liquidity. Both are needed for a market to exist.

Market orders move the market, so long as they can sufficiently 'eat' through the tasty walls of limit orders that are present at the neighbouring bid or ask prices. This depends of course on the size of the market order being placed in relation to the available liquidity.

Seeing as this is ForexFactory and how much our glorious thread starter loooooves the forex market, I'm going to use this market in the example. Imagine there is a currency pair called Ryu/Ric and it's current price is 1.000. 'Richard A. Migo' thinks the true value of Ryu/Ric is 1.500 and that the market will go up, so he wishes to buy. 'Ryan Compaņero' on the other hand (who favours sells) thinks 1.000 is the accurate price. Nobody can do anything right now because there is no incentive for Ryan to trade. After some deliberation Ryan decides he is willing to sell to Richard at the (limit) Ask price of 1.050. Thus a spread is born. If he is right then he will pick up 50 pips on the trade (so long as he can then offload his position at 1.000) and if Richard is right then he'll potentially gain 450 pips if he can liquidate it at his goal price of 1.500. Assuming that both these guys wish to trade 1 full lot and also assuming we're in the middle of a zombie apocalypse whereby they're the only two traders in the world, the orderbook would look like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: O1.png Size: 6 KB


But just say Ryan has 50 lots in total that he's willing to trade and allocates it all to limit price 1.050. If Richard happens to be a stinking rich Antipodean who is able to trade up to 75 lots in total, then in theory, using a market order, he could gobble up all Ryan's limits at 1.050 and push price up (like Buzz Lightyear) to infinity and beyond.

Naturally, in the real world there are more than two traders active in the market at any one time, so imagine a really handsome, witty, extremely well endowed and yet surprisingly modest third guy that all the ladies desired... let's call him 'Betchad Leiktoonoh'. Betchad is also willing to sell 50 lots at the ask price of 1.350. The order book would initially look like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: O2.png Size: 4 KB


Then after Richard's 75 lot market order, the book would change to looking like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: O3.png Size: 3 KB


Current value/price/spread would shift in relation to the consumed limit orders and/or the addition of NEW limit orders on both sides of the book.

Available liquidity and ease of price movement are inversely correlated. In other words, the more limit orders that are sitting at a price level, the harder it will be for price to break through them to the next level.

Quoting ryuryu
2. What stop orders are?
Stop orders are marketed as a hybrid of market and limit orders. They are initially placed as a limit order, but in actuality they are executed exactly the same as a market order when hit. Stop runs/cascades are one of the primary reasons for large and sudden directional moves in the market.

Quoting ryuryu
3. That is orderbook?
Also known as Depth of Market or DOM, see the amazingly drawn pictures in answer number one for a visual reference, above. It should be noted that there is no orderbook in OTC forex, so currency futures orderbook needs to be used as a proxy.

Quoting ryuryu
4. What orderflow contains?
Volume and Delta are the primary orderflow indicators. These are based on actual market orders being entered.

Volume = Buy orders + Sell orders. E.g. 12 buys and 9 sells = 21 volume.
Delta = Buy orders - sell orders. E.g. 12 buys and 13 sells = -1 delta.

As stated at the beginning, this was only a draft. But I did not want someone jumping in and gaining the prize before I at least showed that I was here and interested. If I don't die in the interim () then I'll come back and finish what I started...
  • #1,737
  • Mar 13, 2023 8:12am Mar 13, 2023 8:12am
Quoting Betchad
I started this response last night and now this morning I've gone and injured myself. I need to tend to myself, so I'm posting this as an incomplete response for the moment... {quote} Market orders TAKE liquidity, whereas limit orders PROVIDE liquidity. Both are needed for a market to exist. Market orders move the market, so long as they can sufficiently 'eat' through the tasty walls of limit orders that are present at the neighbouring bid or ask prices. This depends of course on the size of the market order being placed in relation to the available...
Thats a good post Betchad

That must of taken a while to write, edit.
I'll read it again when I finish trading tonight - one crazy night indeed.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,738
  • Mar 13, 2023 11:16am Mar 13, 2023 11:16am
[quote=Betchad;14358493}

You have gained a subscriber from this post! Selfishly looking forward to the rest of your response but not at the expense of a speedy recovery, take care.
  • #1,739
  • Mar 13, 2023 12:44pm Mar 13, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting RickM
go against your gut feelings (because your gut hates the shit you throw down your throat anyway)
Hahaha! +1
  • #1,740
  • Mar 17, 2023 5:57pm Mar 17, 2023 5:57pm
Excuse the delay getting back to the forum with the second part of my reply. While I made somewhat of a joke of it in my previous post, I've been in really quite severe pain for most of the week and sitting down to write has not been a priority. I'm still not back to normal (it's open to debate as to whether I ever have been), so I hope you've not been too anxious for this follow-up. I feel it's probably going to disappoint, underwhelm and/or annoy those subscribed to the thread and RyuRyu in particular.

If you recall, I answered question number 1 quite extensively, then due to my head injury I gave much shorter and to the point answers for numbers 2 through 4. That left us with 5 & 6 still to be tackled and I'm going to take them in reverse order now. Why? Because number 6 is a pure mathematical problem, whereas number 5 is - in my opinion - far more subjective.

Quoting ryuryu
6. If you have 123 lot size short position at price 200, and now price is 250, how many lots you need to sell more to get average price 223?
Let the required Lots to be sold = X.

So: 123*200 + 250*X = 223(123+X)

=> 24600+250X = 27429+223X

=> 250X-223X = 27429–24600

=> X = 2829/27 = 104.78

So, depending on whether you're partial to rounding up or down, the answer is either 104 or 105 lots.

Quoting ryuryu
5. How to calculate the effective leverage?
To me this question is the equivalent of asking, "how long is a piece of string?" RyuRyu may have a specific formula for what he personally uses in his volume based trading, but if we're being pedantic then by the use of the word 'effective', we have moved away from the realm of pure maths and science and into the world of ART and SKILL instead. 'Effective', by definition, means 'that which works' and that which works will differ from person to person. I'm willing to concede that there may be a supreme method of calculating leverage usage, but I've yet to see it and am happy for my new Spanish friend to share his knowledge... alongside the winning system that he promised.

According to the received wisdom espoused by all the books and gurus out there, using as little leverage as possible is the way to go, as using too high an amount is basically a ticking time bomb and sooner or later it will explode and take your account with it. Well, you'd better strap yourself down here because I'm going to commit the cardinal sin of telling you that for my entire highly lucrative trading career I've looked for brokers that offer the highest leverage possible, because my news trading strategy has afforded me an extraordinarily high win rate with almost zero drawdown. Being in such a privileged position, tell me why I WOULDN'T USE the GIFT presented to me by the brokers?

Wait! Don't jump in yet, because I anticipate the main objection that is likely to be raised...

Please don't assume that those of us who are experienced traders are leveraging ALL of our money in our brokerage accounts on each and every trade. This just isn't the case and if any trader worth his mettle isn't using the leverage solely as a free credit facility and keeping the rest of his trading funds in cash, then he hasn't thought through the benefits of compound interest. Further, I wouldn't dare risk all of my trading funds in most Forex brokerages anyway - especially in today's effed up world - which is another reason why I use the leverage provided and keep the rest in cash. Capital preservation is the number one key in any career. It just takes different forms as to how it is implemented.

If you have an extremely profitable strategy, combined with extensive probability statistics of how much the market is likely to move if X, Y or Z scenarios occurs, then dare I say it, leverage really doesn't factor that much into the calculation at all, except to know that you will have more than enough to cover any potential catastrophic mistake or unexpected occurrence.

I know, I know, I know... I was doing so well until this last answer, right? Now I've gone and p*ssed you off! lol

Anyway, nobody else (with the exception of the fairly laconic madhfriendz) has dared take you up on your challenge. As you remind me of a younger version of myself I decided to pick up the gauntlet. Even if you find fault with my reasoning, I still hope some of what I've said is useful to the community at large.

Adios!
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