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  • #5,761
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:18pm Mar 7, 2023 4:18pm
Quoting bluesteele
I see no one posting anything about Intent as BW laid out... He specifically said it's based off the 4hr candle... That's where it all begins.... Where's the 4hr charts showing the intent of any 4 hr candles...and the subsequent 50+pip move... Are we talking candles at a specific time? A specific type of candle?? A pattern of candles at timing ? Where's the details ??
The way I have understood this H4 intent candle, is that any H4 candle that clears 33% of the ADR of that day is an entry in that direction for 50 pips,

provided that currency pair has ADR 100 - 120 pips minimum.

So GJ pair ADR is approx 120 pips, we let 40 pips "ride" in one direction before considering the Intent to be verified., and the remaining 50% ADR should be 50 - 60 pips in our favour, the last 15% ADR is left on the table.

The rule as I understood it was H4 close over 33% level. If that is the case, today GU entry was on the 4th H4 candle close, so entry was 16:00 GMT @ 1.19803 and TP 83% @ 1.19326 (47.7 pips) close enough to 50 pips. ADR 20 was 110 approx today

If the rule was a touch of the 33% ADR line then a Buy trade would have triggered resulting in a loss on the first trade. Then profit on the Sell side.

GJ result Close 33% - Entry after 16:00 H4 close, passed Entry & Target - No trade triggered

GJ result Touch 33% - the Sell triggered 17:00 target achieved 18:15

This strategy may be more suitable for Long term swing trades and targets, Intraday trading at best you can achieve IMO 50/50

My main concern is that most day traders with targets of 10 - 40 pips would not be prepared to sit all day waiting for an entry.

If it occured in the first two H4 candles - fair enough, but not always the case.

Early stage of evaluation, only a few days, so inconclusive - Jurys out on this one.

But thanks to BW for putting it out there,

Apologies for any typos / errors.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,762
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:22pm Mar 7, 2023 4:22pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The way I have understood this H4 intent candle, is that any H4 candle that clears 33% of the ADR of that day is an entry in that direction for 50 pips, provided that currency pair has ADR 100 - 120 pips minimum. So GJ pair ADR is approx 120 pips, we let 40 pips "ride" in one direction before considering the Intent to be verified., and the remaining 50% ADR should be 50 - 60 pips in our favour, the last 15% ADR is left on the table. The rule as I understood it was H4 close over 33% level. If that is the case, today GU entry was on the 4th...
Excellent explanation Shabs Thank you ... So in all reality a simple mechanical method is what BW is calling intent..

Cheers !
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #5,763
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:29pm Mar 7, 2023 4:29pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}The way I have understood this H4 intent candle, is that any H4 candle that clears 33% of the ADR of that day is an entry in that direction for 50 pips, provided that currency pair has ADR 100 - 120 pips minimum. Early stage of evaluation, only a few days, so inconclusive - Jurys out on this one.
But thanks to BW for putting it out there, Apologies for any typos / errors.

Okay, yes that rings a bell Shabs.

(Did BW mention the 3rd, 4hr candle at one point)

It certainly wasn't direct PA Intent that BW was talking about so you have refreshed us, cheers.

I also remember BW also uploaded his own ADR indi that is different to the std ADRs. Can I ask is BWs ADR indi the one that you're using to measure the 33% ?
  • #5,764
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:32pm Mar 7, 2023 4:32pm
Quoting bluesteele
would you so kindly show me the charts if I have somehow missed them ... All the best Blue
I've been contributing to the intent discussion by talking about my intent to target approach. I've tried to be crystal clear about what I'm doing: 4H targets, PA around those targets, bank signal of intent, bank follow through to next 4H or intermediate targets. Repeat.

I think BW and I agree on the concept of market intent. I also think his trade implementation differs from mine, where his involves a 4H candle and a capture of 50 pips from the ATR. I've been willing to share and participate with whomever is interested in joining the discussion, and there were a few posters here that seemed interested in what we were talking about.

Blue, I know you and BW have a history here, and I'm sure even he'd agree that sometimes he can be a handful. But he ALWAYS has interesting, perhaps even compelling, things to discuss, even if and when he's unwilling to follow through or achieve clarity. If that is his MO, then don't expect more from him. Everyone can contribute in their own way, when their allowed.

Look, you guys decide how you want this thread to work. For what it's worth, the thread is at its best when you're talking about actual trading rather than trades, and when you aren't pounding the shit out of one another (been there and done with that).

Good luck guys! And remember, there is no master algo!
  • #5,765
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:41pm Mar 7, 2023 4:41pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Okay, yes that rings a bell Shabs. (Did BW mention the 3rd, 4hr candle at one point) It certainly wasn't direct PA Intent that BW was talking about so you have refreshed us, cheers. I also remember BW also uploaded his own ADR indi that is different to the std ADRs. Can I ask is BWs ADR indi the one that you're using to measure the 33% ?
No it's one I found on the old internet search, here it is if you want to try it.

Its an Ex4 file, So You have to set the fib levels manually, I have set them at : 0.25, 0.33, 0.83, 1.27, 1.62 Count Days set to 1 (current day only).

Days to average 20 ( works out ADR 20 automatically & prints at 100% level) then true, true, true.

You can adjust line colours & line type & font type & size but not line thicknesses.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Daily Average Fibo Historical v1.1.ex4   12 KB | 265 downloads
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,766
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:44pm Mar 7, 2023 4:44pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} No it's one I found on the old internet search, here it is if you want to try it. Its an Ex4 file, So You have to set the fib levels manually, I have set them at : 0.25, 0.33, 0.83, 1.27, 1.62 Count Days set to 1 (current day only). Days to average 20 ( works out ADR 20 automatically & prints at 100% level) then true, true, true. You can adjust line colours & line type & font type & size but not line thicknesses. {file}

Cheers Shabs
Yes I did download yours to have a look when you posted it the other day (v1.1 exe) and I have it now on a lonseome 1hr chart lol all on its own.
I will adjust the parameter to 33% from the 38~. Thanks again.
  • #5,767
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:48pm Mar 7, 2023 4:48pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I've been contributing to the intent discussion by talking about my intent to target approach. I've tried to be crystal clear about what I'm doing: 4H targets, PA around those targets, bank signal of intent, bank follow through to next 4H or intermediate targets. Repeat. I think BW and I agree on the concept of market intent. I also think his trade implementation differs from mine, where his involves a 4H candle and a capture of 50 pips from the ATR. I've been willing to share and participate with whomever is interested in joining the discussion,...
Thank you for your input GE... I appreciate your candor... And I always appreciate your posts as you have a different outlook and explanation of things as you see them... Which I guess we all do as we all see things a little different...

Anyways tho I don't think I have ever expressed my gratitude to you for your informative posts and sharing...

It is appreciated ...

I know I come across harsh at times I guess that's what I am used to ... I grew up in a family business that frank and direct conversations were a daily happening... But at the end of the day we are all family and sometimes we just agree on disagreeing.

So again thank you

Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #5,768
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:49pm Mar 7, 2023 4:49pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers Shabs Yes I did download yours to have a look when you posted it the other day (v1.1 exe) and I have it now on a lonseome 1hr chart lol all on its own. I will adjust the parameter to 33% from the 38~. Thanks again.
Did I post it before ?

Memory going, at least indicator saves all that drawing lines manually.

What did Einstein say : "Trading should be Simple not Simpler."

Off to Bed now.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,769
  • Mar 7, 2023 5:19pm Mar 7, 2023 5:19pm
Hi again All,

Was on holiday and boy did i enjoy my trip to Anfield. Watched Liverpool v Everton. Amazing atmosphere. It was number 1 on my bucket list. Been a Liverpool fan for ages and to finally get to Anfield was dream come true for me. Liverpool itself is a very nice and working class city. Didn't spend too many days there but i found people to be very friendly and helpful. Its not too busy like London. Lost touch of my trading and as usual have to brush through my rules and get into the rhythm. I am going back to my posts to see how i placed trades and start all over again. I had some good ones but damn it looks alien now. Time and RN are two main inputs. Good to see that Timetells, Bluesteele and others are still here helping out.

Trade Well All
  • #5,770
  • Mar 7, 2023 5:45pm Mar 7, 2023 5:45pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Okay, yes that rings a bell Shabs. (Did BW mention the 3rd, 4hr candle at one point) It certainly wasn't direct PA Intent that BW was talking about so you have refreshed us, cheers. I also remember BW also uploaded his own ADR indi that is different to the std ADRs. Can I ask is BWs ADR indi the one that you're using to measure the 33% ?
Yes, he mentioned to look for the intent (repeating candle pattern) from the 3rd 4H candle of the day.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade analysis (6).jpg Size: 190 KB
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,771
  • Mar 7, 2023 6:22pm Mar 7, 2023 6:22pm
Talking about Intent...does this look right? Anyone with some input.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 18 KB
  • #5,772
  • Mar 7, 2023 7:10pm Mar 7, 2023 7:10pm
Quoting whitesta
Talking about Intent...does this look right? Anyone with some input. {image}
With the HINDSIGHT, the intent is quite obvious.

However, on a serious note, please look at the same chart in 15m. It was screaming to be shorted.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade analysis (7).jpg Size: 97 KB
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,773
  • Mar 7, 2023 7:17pm Mar 7, 2023 7:17pm
[quote=GEfx;14351325]{quote} I've been contIributing to the intent discussion by talking about my intent to target approach. I've tried to be crystal clear about what I'm doing: 4H targets, PA around those targets, bank signal of intent, bank follow through to next 4H or intermediate targets. Repeat.


Couldn't agree more, it is what I call mapping the (just my own term) higher time frame chart for ideal entries/exits potential,,,,before ever thinking of taking a shot...that little move up before plunging south was simply a no brainer inho...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 Mapping Significant Levels.png Size: 10 KB
  • #5,774
  • Edited 7:47pm Mar 7, 2023 7:19pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting GEfx
BW's discussion about intent to targets has been largely dismissed by some of you. I thought I'd take a moment to belabor the points BW has tried to make here, by showing how I used intent to target on the G$ today. I posted a chart earlier on the G$ PA the past few days, showing some of the high points of intent to target trading, but here is another example for anyone still interested. Among the things that impress me about professional traders is their ability to manage risk, which in large part, has them in trades long before non-professional...
Hi GEfx, as usual your post give the best explanation about market intent.

You know as I know if the trader has no idea about intent he's trading blindly. I wrote clearly about this topic 6months ago.

How do a typical trader trade if he has no idea about market intent?

1. Follow cooked up market narratives.
2. Follow indicators - indicator trader
3. Follow candlestick pattern
4. Follow price action, whatever that means, and expect 5m pa to account for a 240pips intraday move
5. SCALP
6. React to supposed momentum
7. Follow supposed supply demand zone and orderblock ideas culled from a chart that has no volume data
8. Plot supposed support resistance levels
9. And so on....

This, to ME, is blind trading.

This blindness caused psychology and weak mindset issues. YOU need you vs you shrink, I don't, get lost gypsy shrink!

I am sticking my neck out, call a spade a spade.

Read GEfx post above. That's how a knowledgeable person about market intent trades. Read specifically his thinking process which must require clear and defined market intent for the day. As he gets more and more committed into the market intent as the day progresses while properly managing his risk with his risk exposure increasing over time. This is the clear sign of a trader with WIDE OPEN Eyes that see!

Look at the GU chart. It dropped from a high of 1.20651 to a low of 1.18211 that's 240pips.

Read my history post, I wrote if market dropped 240pips in front of you and you have no idea this happened or this significant event flew past you without ringing alarm bells along the way, as if nothing happened just another trading day, you are trading stone blind.

I wrote clearly, what tool, market concepts, that you have in your toolbox that help you navigate and keep your fingers on market intent every trading day?

Zero, nada, zilch.

That's why it went past you in an "uneventful" day.

This is your starting point if you chose to make it YOUR starting point, trading a real market where banks make decision about this Forex market with proper reasons that's connected with the real economy, not a video game.

Why settle to be among the hundred of thousands of gypsy traders? Read your own posts again.

I apologise for writing so straightforward. It's just me. And as a researcher, I don't waste time with nonsense. Cheers

Ps Caveat - I am just sharing my knowledge culled from proper research. Imo, this community has to conduct a serious conversation about market intent. Make a major shift of paradigm. Away from typical retail mindset.

Humble yourself, learn from GEfx, a market intent/fundamentals trader. The decision is YOURS.
Know what you trade
  • #5,775
  • Mar 7, 2023 7:51pm Mar 7, 2023 7:51pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Imo, this community has to conduct a serious conversation about market intent. Make a major shift of paradigm. Away from typical retail mindset.
Then let's get to it!
  • #5,776
  • Mar 7, 2023 8:08pm Mar 7, 2023 8:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi GEfx, as usual your post give the best explanation about market intent.

Hi BW,

Welcome back.
Pls a chart, if possible.

A picture will tell a thousand words.


Myself, I can see clearly the Market Mechanics that foretell current Intent on GEfx chart.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14351179


And on Swede chart here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14351403


And fxpider chart here
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14351402



These are easy for me to read the market mechanics and the implied current market intent.

Any historical chart you have maybe, “showing” the trigger candle AND trade candle please.
(no predictions, I mean, just a past chart, any chart)

Is it always the 3rd x 4hr candle yes (and all/any afterwards) ???
(as if so my own day scalping is well and truly done & pocketed by then ).
  • #5,777
  • Edited 8:54pm Mar 7, 2023 8:09pm | Edited 8:54pm
Todays market, GU.

After such a significant 240pips move, with a strong statement with market staying at the bottom, DON"T EVER think to reverse this move !

Notice the volatility dropped to the lowest level Asia market.

WAIT for some sign of live in the market, when it SLOWLY wakes up again Frankfurt open.

Cast away in the trash bin this great idea wanting to reverse this move.
Typical retail trading mindset.

Look at your chart right now, mark price levels as potential targets of pullback.

Do nothing, watch for HOW todays market pullback to this price level.

Read the new release for potential time where market will start TALKING with statements again later today.

We are waiting for opportunity where this market may move to lower prices. For TODAY.

Price has reached a significant area where there might be further falls in coming days, OR
IF NOT, market might rebound. Watch closely the market intent as it reveal itself progressively. Cheers

Ps, I wrote this post from my phone, so can't give more detail info.
Know what you trade
  • #5,778
  • Mar 7, 2023 8:12pm Mar 7, 2023 8:12pm
BW,

Nah I'm good. I actually called what could move this market yesterday and this morning it happened. Was that some mystical thing I did? Nope. In the current rate environment it was a no brainer. How far they move the market is based on what their INTENT is. Because it sure as hell is not buyers and sellers.

Now if you want this paradigm shift perhaps you could be more open. I have just done about 8 months of my own long and hard research and I would venture that some of my conclusions coincide with you, but many do not.

And to claim that all our ways of trading just leaves us blind is a bit arrogant don't you think.

No matter, it is always a good thought experiment.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,779
  • Edited 9:15pm Mar 7, 2023 8:17pm | Edited 9:15pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW, Welcome back. Pls a chart, if possible. A picture will tell a thousand words.
I had to switch on the computer. My simple chart, that's the bare minimum to keep tab of market intent.

Read these posts that I repeated several times.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14347568
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14349203

These 2 posts explains for the drop yesterday market.
I wrote in clear, simple English. Read it.
Do anybody read anything around here?

Look with your EYES, SEE where price is right now.
Notice how off-spec price is right now?
This is an opportune time to see how market move back in sync, watch it unfold.

Cheers.

Ps, I have other commitments, I won't be around for a while.

Keep this conversation going. A conversation that make sense, that help you improve be less blind, help you be a grounded knowledgeable trader. You are just getting started.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU1.PNG Size: 19 KB
Know what you trade
  • #5,780
  • Mar 7, 2023 8:21pm Mar 7, 2023 8:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I had to switch on the computer. My simple chart, that's the bare minimum to keep tab of market intent. Cheers. {image}

Cheers Jason, thank you, much appreciated

Pls which is trigger candle and which is trade candle.

Might be better on a 4hr chart to see this candle and then I can count how many 4hr candles so far during the day ?
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