Trading the ETH merge

I think the PoS transition will bring chaos to the economic system that underlies ETH. Something like an imbalance that grows over a few months and forces participants bail.

I've been thinking about how to trade this, and I may have found my answer: Long ETC. It's sitting around $38 right now. The thesis is that users will bail on ETH, and ETC will be the natural place to go. In my estimation, that's a potential upside around $1,000 per coin. So a $38K bet today could return $1M. The downside isn't too scary either... at worst you lose a few bucks on an unlucky ETC move.

I'm going for it boys.

ETC isn't easy to trade via fiat, so I'm using my 1M DOGE. I'm converting 1M DOGE into BTC, then BTC into ETC.

I got 1,677 ETC out of the deal. I think I lost ~$1,500 in the conversion. Not bad I guess.
I might press this bet tomorrow. I have 997 XMR I could use for this trade.

I'm going full Druckenmiller on this trade. Converting all my XMR into ETC tonight.

When I change my bid at Kraken it's reflected here immediately. VERY cool.
I'm pushing them 15 cents over the market btw.

Ended up with 5.7K ETC. Not sure what I paid in fiat, but DOGE was at 6 cents and XMR was around $145 when I sold them.


This trade is a longshot, but I don't see much downside risk. I bought the position with crypto so I have no exposure to general crypto volatility. The biggest risk is that XMR or DOGE blows up while I'm in ETC. I'm not sweating that because what would be the catalyst for such a move? The only thing I'm sweating is that I wasted my time with the tedious work required to safely and efficiently acquire the ETC.

The chaos is off to a good start...
I'm a lot more confident that this will snowball than I am that refugees will choose ETC.

This trade isn't working out very well. It's hard to tell if ETH is having economic problems with all the broader-market turmoil, but I'm not hearing the kind of complaints I expected to hear. Not giving up yet.

How about Elon buying Twitter?

What has happened to the staked ether after the merge? They say it will be locked for 6 to 12 months. Can anyone please tell me anything about this?