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Trading the ETH merge

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Sep 12, 2022 12:08am Sep 12, 2022 12:08am
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
I think the PoS transition will bring chaos to the economic system that underlies ETH. Something like an imbalance that grows over a few months and forces participants bail.

I've been thinking about how to trade this, and I may have found my answer: Long ETC. It's sitting around $38 right now. The thesis is that users will bail on ETH, and ETC will be the natural place to go. In my estimation, that's a potential upside around $1,000 per coin. So a $38K bet today could return $1M. The downside isn't too scary either... at worst you lose a few bucks on an unlucky ETC move.
  • Post #2
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  • Edited 2:41pm Sep 13, 2022 9:46am | Edited 2:41pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
I'm going for it boys.

ETC isn't easy to trade via fiat, so I'm using my 1M DOGE. I'm converting 1M DOGE into BTC, then BTC into ETC.
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4
  • Post #3
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  • Sep 13, 2022 2:39pm Sep 13, 2022 2:39pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
I got 1,677 ETC out of the deal. I think I lost ~$1,500 in the conversion. Not bad I guess.
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I might press this bet tomorrow. I have 997 XMR I could use for this trade.
 
3
  • Post #4
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  • Edited 12:51am Sep 15, 2022 12:32am | Edited 12:51am
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
I'm going full Druckenmiller on this trade. Converting all my XMR into ETC tonight.
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2
  • Post #5
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  • Sep 15, 2022 12:47am Sep 15, 2022 12:47am
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
When I change my bid at Kraken it's reflected here immediately. VERY cool.
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I'm pushing them 15 cents over the market btw.
 
3
  • Post #6
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  • Sep 22, 2022 2:03pm Sep 22, 2022 2:03pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
Ended up with 5.7K ETC. Not sure what I paid in fiat, but DOGE was at 6 cents and XMR was around $145 when I sold them.
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This trade is a longshot, but I don't see much downside risk. I bought the position with crypto so I have no exposure to general crypto volatility. The biggest risk is that XMR or DOGE blows up while I'm in ETC. I'm not sweating that because what would be the catalyst for such a move? The only thing I'm sweating is that I wasted my time with the tedious work required to safely and efficiently acquire the ETC.
 
2
  • Post #7
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  • Sep 22, 2022 3:41pm Sep 22, 2022 3:41pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
The chaos is off to a good start...
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I'm a lot more confident that this will snowball than I am that refugees will choose ETC.
 
1
  • Post #8
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  • Nov 11, 2022 8:31pm Nov 11, 2022 8:31pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,702 Posts
This trade isn't working out very well. It's hard to tell if ETH is having economic problems with all the broader-market turmoil, but I'm not hearing the kind of complaints I expected to hear. Not giving up yet.
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Quoting Goat
Disliked
because what would be the catalyst for such a move?
Ignored
How about Elon buying Twitter?
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Last Post: Nov 15, 2022 3:04am Nov 15, 2022 3:04am
  •  Fernanda21
  • | Joined Oct 2022 | Status: Junior Member | 4 Posts
What has happened to the staked ether after the merge? They say it will be locked for 6 to 12 months. Can anyone please tell me anything about this?
 
 
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