Top economist David Rosenberg predicts US inflation will plummet below 3% next year - and warns the Fed's rate hikes are courting disaster | Crypto Craft

  • Top economist David Rosenberg predicts US inflation will plummet below 3% next year - and warns the Fed's rate hikes are courting disaster

    From markets.businessinsider.com

    The Federal Reserve seems intent on choking the US economy into submission, despite mounting evidence that the inflation threat is fading, David Rosenberg said in a pair of appearances this week. The Rosenberg Research founder noted the Fed is rapidly hiking interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, even though stocks are in a bear market and the macroeconomic outlook is deeply unclear. At the same time, the yield curve is inverted — a reliable sign of an upcoming recession. "We have an economic storm brewing," he told BNN Bloomberg on Tuesday. "2023 is going to be a very, very rough year." ... (full story)

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Banditten
Oct 13, 2022 7:25am
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Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Its fashion to bash the Fed. Firstly when Inflation went up and Fed said it was transitory, they said Fed was behind the curve and now they are blaming the Fed for creating the recession. Fed guys are also humans!
FED was wrong. It is OK to be wrong. I tell this to my kids every single day. But its not OK not to be able to admit and realize you are wrong. FED was wrong with the transitory narrative. But they didnt admit it and they didnt respond properly to it.
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gespiri
Oct 13, 2022 7:15am
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Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Its fashion to bash the Fed. Firstly when Inflation went up and Fed said it was transitory, they said Fed was behind the curve and now they are blaming the Fed for creating the recession. Fed guys are also humans!
They're humans who have their own agenda.....and most of that agenda is not for the rest of us.
Simply put: these guys know exactly what they're doing for their owners while fooling the rest of us.
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gespiri
Oct 13, 2022 7:01am
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Can he predict the weather next week too?
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Banditten
Oct 13, 2022 7:53am
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Quoting Guest
{quote} They did admit they were wrong on inflation being transitory and didn't start tightening soon enough (even if they won't admit it's a money supply problem), and they continue to respond appropriately by raising rates aggressively.
I dont buy into that. In my book they did not accept they were wrong. FED was the last wo(men) on earth to acknowledge that the transitory narrative was wrong. And the damage caused. Oh well (: We will see ppl lose jobs, homes and wealth at an enormous scale. Through the 0 interest policy for years FED and the likes have lured average Joe into speculation in search for just a little interest on their hard earned money. And average Joe thought it was a safe thing. Cause what can go wrong? well, now the 100 average Joe invested is worth 60, he is losing his job and maybe even his home. That was another failure by FED.
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Banditten
Oct 13, 2022 11:25am
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Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Higher Unempl claims is bad for economy. It means more Unempl people filed for claims. Means more people lost their jobs. This was highest claims in last 6 weeks, but still within range of 260-200. A move above 260 would be real bad for US economy.
But in this weird world of trading bad news is good news
Reply
CARP.BLUFFS
Oct 13, 2022 10:32pm
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Jeremy Siegel: If the Fed waits for core inflation to hit 2%, it'll drive economy into depression

https://youtu.be/m9FYOvHqBO8
Reply
swagtrading
Oct 13, 2022 7:33am
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Quoting Banditten
{quote} FED was wrong. It is OK to be wrong. I tell this to my kids every single day. But its not OK not to be able to admit and realize you are wrong. FED was wrong with the transitory narrative. But they didnt admit it and they didnt respond properly to it.
Your post is bang on. Its far better to admit your mistake than to deny it and continue like nothing happened. Yeah for sure they were wrong as was ECB, which to date still dont admit clearly on Inflation. Fed kinda admitted they were wrong when the stopped using the word transitory.

Clear admission will come in when Powell writes a book a few years after he is no longer the Fed chair. haha
Reply
zola
Oct 13, 2022 11:20am
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How many economists does it take to change a light bulb? Seven, plus/minus ten.
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Mingary
Oct 13, 2022 7:51am
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Belly slapping roll on the ground hilarious
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swagtrading
Oct 13, 2022 7:12am
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Quoting gespiri
Can he predict the weather next week too?
Its fashion to bash the Fed. Firstly when Inflation went up and Fed said it was transitory, they said Fed was behind the curve and now they are blaming the Fed for creating the recession.

Fed guys are also humans!
Reply
swagtrading
Oct 13, 2022 9:53am
Permalink
Quoting Guest
{quote} I'm pretty sure Powell has publicly admitted they were wrong about the transitory part, but maybe not. Regardless, I agree with you on the rest, they kept zero rate/QE policy for WAY too long, part of the blame also goes to the profligate congress deficit spending (financed largely by the FED) which literally created trillions of new money out of thin air. Just look at a chart of M2 broad money supply in the last 3 years, it's disturbing.
They for sure admitted they were wrong back in Nov 2021:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/powell-fed-wrong-inflation-not-transitory
Reply
swagtrading
Oct 13, 2022 10:17am
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Quoting Banditten
Unemployment claims went up above last month and expectations. Maybe a first indication that things are turning in the right direction? Still good numbers I guess.
Higher Unempl claims is bad for economy. It means more Unempl people filed for claims. Means more people lost their jobs. This was highest claims in last 6 weeks, but still within range of 260-200. A move above 260 would be real bad for US economy.
Reply
Banditten
Oct 13, 2022 10:05am
Permalink
Quoting swagtrading
{quote} They for sure admitted they were wrong back in Nov 2021: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/powell-fed-wrong-inflation-not-transitory
No, actually JP didnt admit he was wrong. What he says is that you, me and everybody else than FED has a different understanding of the term "transitory" and that is why he should probably stop using it. But anyway, lets not go down that route ((:
Reply
nbfx
Oct 14, 2022 4:44am
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Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
Jeremy Siegel: If the Fed waits for core inflation to hit 2%, it'll drive economy into depression https://youtu.be/m9FYOvHqBO8
Central banks are always behind the curve, the current incumbents are no different to their predecessors.

And since the IMF have been at it - it's a rare thing that they ever have anything even remotely useful to add....
Reply
harrybhullar
Oct 13, 2022 8:06am
Permalink
Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Its fashion to bash the Fed. Firstly when Inflation went up and Fed said it was transitory, they said Fed was behind the curve and now they are blaming the Fed for creating the recession. Fed guys are also humans!
Feb is not policy maker. They are punching bags to defend policy makers who are only interested in votes.
Reply
Trader#8944
Oct 13, 2022 7:35am
Permalink
Quoting Banditten
{quote} FED was wrong. It is OK to be wrong. I tell this to my kids every single day. But its not OK not to be able to admit and realize you are wrong. FED was wrong with the transitory narrative. But they didnt admit it and they didnt respond properly to it.
They did admit they were wrong on inflation being transitory and didn't start tightening soon enough (even if they won't admit it's a money supply problem), and they continue to respond appropriately by raising rates aggressively.
Reply
Banditten
Oct 13, 2022 10:06am
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Impressive comeback from DJI today. Just closing the opening GAP now. Lets see if there is anything left in the tank.
Reply
Banditten
Oct 13, 2022 10:13am
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Unemployment claims went up above last month and expectations. Maybe a first indication that things are turning in the right direction? Still good numbers I guess.
Reply
gazrok
Oct 13, 2022 7:25am
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Short the market, and buy after the dump. These guys have been at it for decades...follow the money.
Reply
sudathkg
Oct 13, 2022 7:06am
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Reply
Trader#8944
Oct 13, 2022 9:15am
Permalink
Quoting Banditten
{quote} I dont buy into that. In my book they did not accept they were wrong. FED was the last wo(men) on earth to acknowledge that the transitory narrative was wrong. And the damage caused. Oh well (: We will see ppl lose jobs, homes and wealth at an enormous scale. Through the 0 interest policy for years FED and the likes have lured average Joe into speculation in search for just a little interest on their hard earned money. And average Joe thought it was a safe thing. Cause what can go wrong? well, now the 100 average Joe invested is worth 60,...
I'm pretty sure Powell has publicly admitted they were wrong about the transitory part, but maybe not. Regardless, I agree with you on the rest, they kept zero rate/QE policy for WAY too long, part of the blame also goes to the profligate congress deficit spending (financed largely by the FED) which literally created trillions of new money out of thin air. Just look at a chart of M2 broad money supply in the last 3 years, it's disturbing.
Reply
Trader#E9E2
Oct 14, 2022 9:45am
Permalink
This guy is full of it! In my 4+ decades of adult life I've never seen shelf prices drop.in response to reported decreasing inflation. Oh maybe 2-3 cents fluctuations here and there but to effect. This last round a can of spinach went from 89 cents to 2 dollars and there it will.stay until the next fuel increase.
Reply
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