US Core CPI m/m

Economic data is interesting for economists, but for traders, it’s only interesting insofar as it impacts markets. For that, we have to consider the “transmission mechanism” between the data and market movements: central bank policy. The Fed, as always, is focused on both maintaining full employment (based on Friday’s NFP report, the Fed seems to be doing a decent job here) and inflation, which has stubbornly stalled in the 3% range after a steep decline in 2022 and 2023. With the labor market remaining strong and inflation still ...

Happy Friday the 13th. The USD keeps on ripping. Stocks keep on ripping. Crypto keeps on ripping. Everybody is getting rich! We continue to ride the soft landing wave as the Bigfoot recession (often spotted, never real!) will have to wait another year. You can now add “sticky inflation” to the list of things that might cut us down to size in Q1 2025. CPI came out this week, and the inflation story in the US is not great as the “sticky inflation” scenario gains more credence with every report. Headline, Core, Wages, Supercore, and ...

US core CPI inflation landed on the screws, was likely weaker than reported if not for ongoing distortions to seasonal adjustment factors, but all summed up reinforces expectations for a quarter point cut from the Fed one week from today. Headline and core CPI inflation was 0.31% m/m in November, matching Scotia’s estimate and the median consensus estimate while higher than the minority of forecasters expected. It has landed at this rate for four months in a row (chart 1). chart Before turning to details we need to consider the ...

Fresh inflation figures are likely to make the Federal Reserve more cautious about the pace of interest-rate cuts — but not quite yet. Investors still widely expect the US central bank to cut borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point next week after a new report showed inflation rose in November in line with expectations. But persistent price pressures have also underscored concerns that progress toward the US central bank’s 2% target may be stalling. Those concerns could prompt officials to rein in the number of rate cuts they ...

Bitcoin returned to $100,000 after the Dec. 11 Wall Street open as on-point US macroeconomic data fueled a rebound. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC price gains of nearly 4% on the day. Initially struggling after the daily close, BTC/USD managed to tag the six-figure mark — traders appeared to forget the prior letdown over tech giant Microsoft’s Bitcoin treasury rejection. Commenting on the latest market movements, popular trader Skew revealed a “passive buyer” lifting price. “Wide orderbook here ...

US core CPI in November has come in at 0.3% month-on-month, as expected, and headline has done likewise. The year-on-year headline rate ticks up to 2.7% from 2.6% while the annual core rate has remained at 3.3%. The details show housing looking a little more benign with owners' equivalent rent and primary rents coming in at a pleasing 0.2% MoM, apparel posting a similar increase and education and communication prices falling 0.4% MoM. The upside pressure largely came from vehicle prices with new vehicles rising 0.6% MoM and used ...

November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether an inflation resurgence is a risk to the US economy as the Federal Reserve debates its final interest rate decision of the year after cutting rates by 75 basis points so far in 2024. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.7%, a slight uptick from October's 2.6% annual gain in prices. Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.3% over the prior month, also ahead of the 0.2% monthly increase ...