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Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

  • #481
  • Feb 12, 2022 1:27pm Feb 12, 2022 1:27pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} You are doing really well. Impressed Keep up the good work bro
Thank you very much! Green days my friend!

UPD:

Today crypto +8.27%

+0.40% XRPUSDT Long
+1.59% XRPUSDT Short
+0.26% XRPUSDT Short
+0.10% XRPUSDT Long
+0.12% XRPUSDT Long
+0.07% XRPUSDT Short
+0.07% XRPUSDT Short
+0.64% XRPUSDT Long
+0.20% XRPUSDT Long
+0.13% XRPUSDT Short
+4.49% XRPUSDT Short
Observer effect
  • #482
  • Feb 12, 2022 9:51pm Feb 12, 2022 9:51pm
Quoting ryuryu
Stats: Yesterday forex +10.82%, all trades on XAU Crypto: +1.51%, all trades on XRP Today: Crypto: +2.62% I started to create a crypto bot, it will listen to webhooks from tradingview and automatically open the trades on delta signals and enter the trade using limit orders. Also it will place exit limit orders too and will have the ability to average if needed and so on. I'm tired to trade manually on crypto, because it is too fast to try to enter and exit with manual trades. But bot can do it much faster. For example today I made 2.26% profit from...
Hi, Ryan
So, your strategy is basically an extreme scalping which is common to order flow based traders. Then, how about judgmental parts of your strategy you described earlier? Can your bot handle 'context'?
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Also, I am concerned about spread and slippage in your scalping trades. Even if you trade forex (not to mention crytos), if you use high leverage they could affect your PnL eventually. Even if you use limit orders, partial fills can happen. Aren't you concerned about it?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #483
  • Feb 12, 2022 11:34pm Feb 12, 2022 11:34pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Hi, Ryan So, your strategy is basically an extreme scalping which is common to order flow based traders. Then, how about judgmental parts of your strategy you described earlier? Can your bot handle 'context'? {image}Also, I am concerned about spread and slippage in your scalping trades. Even if you trade forex (not to mention crytos), if you use high leverage they could affect your PnL eventually. Even if you use limit orders, partial fills can happen. Aren't you concerned about it?
Newer saw partial fills on forex. In my opinion forex is fully virtual game. No difference in the cost of limit and market orders and the absence of information about real transactions (no real volume data) indicates to us that it does not matter at all what the trader does. It is not a market when buyer meet seller, it is casino. There are always positive expectation for casino because of fees, swaps, slippage, fat fingers, revenge trades, connection issues etc.

Slippage is the problem. Few times a week I have loss trades but they were winners.

I'm using little cheat, if I have big DD: since I'm trading forex and crypto at the same time, I can cover my losses from another account. Let's say if I earned 10% of forex, I can easy move all 10 to crypto to cover the loss. And vice versa. I have a dashboard and I see in real time what total profit I have today, this week, this month, since start etc. And I can make a decision what to do. There is only one problem here that I can transfer fast from crypto to forex, but from forex to crypto takes 3-5 days.

If talking about crypto there are few advantages. There are no fees if you are trading with limit orders, but you get rebates instead. There are positive funding every 8 hours for shorts. So the "swaps" are not negative both like in forex, but for shorts they are even positive. There are no gaps and no spread. There are no sessions, weekends, bank holidays and so on. So the expectation is much higher because of that. That's why I love crypto. The last but not least - it is very volatile. You can easy have your 1% with 1x leverage trade. You will never get it on forex. It will be 0.1%, so you have to risk higher taking much more trades to gain the same profit.

I forgot to say that I'm not a scalper, my trading activity depends on market conditions. For example I'm trading Asian session using simple reverse candle + delta approach. It works just great. But on NY session only fast scalps. On crypto I trade mostly with 1H TF, because I need to build my position and exit using only limit orders. So it is just impossible to trade manually on lower TFs, just too fast. I made a bot for bybit, using python, so now I'm trading on 1m TF, because it enter the market automatically, and it place exit orders immediately at +0.15% distance (depends on pair ADR as usual, but in average). It allow me to earn 0.15% + (2 * 0.05%) = 0.25%.
Observer effect
  • #484
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:50am Feb 13, 2022 2:50am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Newer saw partial fills on forex. In my opinion forex is fully virtual game. No difference in the cost of limit and market orders and the absence of information about real transactions (no real volume data) indicates to us that it does not matter at all what the trader does. It is not a market when buyer meet seller, it is casino. There are always positive expectation for casino because of fees, swaps, slippage, fat fingers, revenge trades, connection issues etc. Slippage is the problem. Few times a week I have loss trades but they were...
Thank you for the details. My understanding is you still need some manual interventions while you use your bot for automation.
Regarding the crytos, they are fragmented markets as far as I know. There are various exchanges trading various cryto assets. They are even not connected each other to share trading data. That being said, how do you trust volume data in crypto trading? Just like forex, the liquidity you are watching is actually your broker's liquidity. I think U.S. government may ban cryto trading like CFD in the near future.

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https://learn.bybit.com/trading/fore...rypto-trading/
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #485
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:12am Feb 13, 2022 3:12am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Thank you for the details. My understanding is you still need some manual interventions while you use your bot for automation. Regarding the crytos, they are fragmented markets as far as I know. There are various exchanges trading various cryto assets. They are even not connected each other to share trading data. That being said, how do you trust volume data in crypto trading? Just like forex, the liquidity you are watching is actually your broker's liquidity. I think U.S. government may ban cryto trading like CFD in the near future. {image}{image}{image}...
You are absolutely right. There are no click-and-run bots around. You have to check the status, stop it, start again, change settings etc. It just much faster and do math very fast for you. For example it is impossible to place a trade on high volume manually (I'm talking about limit orders). But bot can do it for you. So it is just a helper.

I don't trust any exchange. I take the data and analyze. I can say that binance has fake orderbook. Bitfinex has real orderbook. Bybit has real. Bitmex has real. And so on. But cinance has no limit order rebates and bitfinex too. Bitmex reduced limit order rebates and increased the fees for market order. So today bybit is the best choice.

As for "they will ban soon" - I'm trading crypto since 2017, so it is 4 years already. And all this time I have advantage: limit order rebates, positive funding for shorts, no spread and high liquidity. Will it last longer? Who knows. May be tomorrow we will all die because of new virus or war. Or they will ban crypto everywhere. Who cares. Take you profits today. Invest in property and education. That is the way.

I don't have a lot of space in my head to fill in with all the garbage news. I'd better thing about girls then to read bullshit from non-professional story-writers.
Observer effect
  • #486
  • Feb 13, 2022 4:33am Feb 13, 2022 4:33am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I forgot to say that I'm not a scalper, my trading activity depends on market conditions. For example I'm trading Asian session using simple reverse candle + delta approach. It works just great. But on NY session only fast scalps. On crypto I trade mostly with 1H TF, because I need to build my position and exit using only limit orders. So it is just impossible to trade manually on lower TFs, just too fast. I made a bot for bybit, using python, so now I'm trading on 1m TF, because it enter the market automatically,...
Sorry for another question but I am not sure how delta volume can help you when you build positions based on 1H TF because as far as I know delta volume tells you a story valid only for very short period time (that's why most order flow based traders are extreme scalpers)........ Can delta volume tell you about big picture?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #487
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:20am Feb 13, 2022 6:20am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Sorry for another question but I am not sure how delta volume can help you when you build positions based on 1H TF because as far as I know delta volume tells you a story valid only for very short period time (that's why most order flow based traders are extreme scalpers)........ Can delta volume tell you about big picture?
It works the same way. I think it is because there are no weekends and holidays on crypto, so the data is not corrupted.
But on forex it is not. On forex 1h-4h is totally corrupted. The data is awful (both volume and OHCL). Impossible to use it.

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Observer effect
  • #488
  • Feb 13, 2022 9:37am Feb 13, 2022 9:37am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} It works the same way. I think it is because there are no weekends and holidays on crypto, so the data is not corrupted. But on forex it is not. On forex 1h-4h is totally corrupted. The data is awful (both volume and OHCL). Impossible to use it. {image} {image}
Good to know you use delta volume also on 1H chart. I will try it using nat gas chart tomorrow to see if it works. By the way, you and Rick have somewhat different view on the usage of delta volume according to his comment recently. My understanding is Rick uses delta volume only on lower TFs......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #489
  • Feb 13, 2022 10:07am Feb 13, 2022 10:07am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Good to know you use delta volume also on 1H chart. I will try it using nat gas chart tomorrow to see if it works. By the way, you and Rick have somewhat different view on the usage of delta volume according to his comment recently. My understanding is Rick uses delta volume only on lower TFs...... {image}
Rick is talking about forex and he is absolutely right. On forex nothing works good on 1H-4H tfs. I explained it many times why.
Every indicator uses data to calculate the values. 1H tf is 8 hours of Asian Session (no real volume), 2 hours of day start (total bullshit) and about 5 hours after NYO - total mess. So we have 80% of data corrupted. Add to this bak holidays, weekends and so on. That's why it is impossible to use 1h TF on forex to get meaningful data.
But small TFs are good. Because for example 1m TF on XAU with 240 average is -4 hours back. So if you are trading NYO, you have pretty good data from London session and you don't have all that garbage from Friday night, Monday open and Asian session. I think novadays real forex is deeper than 1m. 1m is max we can trade. Even 2m is too slow. 240 ema is 8 hours back where 3 hours will be with incomplete and meaningful data. BTW the same on stocks. Or use lower tfs, or smth like daily. Or better weekly charts.
Imagine you have indicators: volume, moving average, stoch (rsi). And all of them showing data with errors, smoothing and multiplying corrupted data sets. Endless process of fake data averaging.

So I'd suggest try your GAS on lower TFs. On just try crypto. For crypto there is no need to buy volume data since it is free. Use bitfinex or bybit data feeds. They are great. Pairs to check: XRP, MATIC, NEAR, BTC, ETH. Enough to try volume delta approach.
Observer effect
  • #490
  • Feb 14, 2022 6:03am Feb 14, 2022 6:03am
Quoting ryuryu
Good news everyone! I have created a bot that search for market imbalances. It look like this: {image} As you see huge negative delta (3 in a row) changed to huge positive. What happened at that time on the market: {image} Of course we need context. Where is the price. What are stoch/RSI values. What is the local and main trend. Also you must understand that this is 1m scalping signals. They are for professional scalpers only (too fast, but good to test the discord and bot features) I will add EURUSD, GBPUSD and major crypto coins and...
Hi Ryuryu, how can I contact you to obtain the discord link for the bot?
Thanks!
  • #491
  • Feb 14, 2022 9:13am Feb 14, 2022 9:13am
Stats:

Sunday +1.7%
+0.54% XRPUSDT Long
-2.11% XRPUSDT Long
+0.22% XRPUSDT Long
+0.45% XRPUSDT Long
+0.27% XRPUSDT Long
+0.93% XRPUSDT Long
+0.32% XRPUSDT Short
+0.14% XRPUSDT Long
+0.97% XRPUSDT Short

Today +2.97% only and no forex trades. Been busy with my python bot
+0.11% XRPUSDT Short
+0.32% XRPUSDT Short
+0.29% XRPUSDT Long
+0.28% XRPUSDT Long
+0.17% XRPUSDT Long
+0.40% XRPUSDT Long
+0.26% XRPUSDT Long
+0.12% XRPUSDT Short
+0.36% XRPUSDT Long
+0.25% XRPUSDT Long
+0.16% XRPUSDT Long
+0.12% XRPUSDT Long
+0.09% XRPUSDT Long


Quoting JoelMFX
{quote} Hi Ryuryu, how can I contact you to obtain the discord link for the bot? Thanks!
There is no room in my discord channel now. I'll post here when it will be possible to join us! Thanks!
Observer effect
  • #492
  • Edited 10:38am Feb 18, 2022 9:10am | Edited 10:38am
Sorry guys and girls for delay. I was "busy" a little.
But now I'm back! Welcome to the show!

Yesterday it was +1.29% only
+0.13% XRPUSDT Short
+0.24% XRPUSDT Long
+0.35% XRPUSDT Short
+0.20% XRPUSDT Long
+0.10% XRPUSDT Long
+0.26% XRPUSDT Long

Today +3.88%

+0.26% XRPUSDT Long
+0.39% XRPUSDT Short
+0.38% XRPUSDT Short
+0.38% XRPUSDT Short
+0.38% XRPUSDT Long
+0.39% XRPUSDT Long
+0.38% XRPUSDT Short
+0.52% XRPUSDT Long
+0.34% XRPUSDT Long
+0.39% XRPUSDT Short

Example of trade (they are all like this):

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I have noticed to I become a little bit lazy and stop taking trades against the trend. Because I don't like to average, and it is much safer to trade with trend.
Observer effect
  • #493
  • Edited 5:37pm Feb 18, 2022 3:08pm | Edited 5:37pm
That's an argument Ryan and myself often have when trading the markets using delta, " should we trade against the markets "

My opinion is we should never trade against the the delta when it flips, who cares what the market direction is at that point.
Just follow the herd whilst never following the big players, then trading becomes so simple and quickly profitable.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #494
  • Feb 19, 2022 1:32am Feb 19, 2022 1:32am
Quoting RickM
That's an argument Ryan and myself often have when trading the markets using delta, " should we trade against the markets " My opinion is we should never trade against the the delta when it flips, who cares what the market direction is at that point. Just follow the herd whilst never following the big players, then trading becomes so simple and quickly profitable.
In fact it doesn't matter you absolutely right.

I just hate that feeling when I failed to exit the trade fast (because of greed, or it bounce from my TP) and I need to make extra movements to fix it I'm lazy arse you know
Observer effect
  • #495
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:13am Feb 21, 2022 4:13am
Let's talk about math a little. It is bank holiday in USA today, so we have some free time for that.

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What you see here? There are 3 lines up and 3 lines down.

How we can draw it? For example we can say that
First line is +0.25%, second is +0.5%, third is +0.75%
And negative the same way.

Good? At first look yes, but...
Imagine you are trading Gold. There are no +0.75%. It is toooo far away. Or you are trading BTC. 0.75% is good.

Of course you can adjust the settings for every pair. But how you do this? Using feelings? Eyes?
This is Sparta! No prediction, no feelings, no guess! Only math.

So how to make it auto adjust for every pair and be correct? Easy. First let's get for example average candle size for X bars back. And then use 3 multipliers to draw the lines.

And now for XRPUSDT first is +0.24%
for XAU it is +0.07%
for GBPUSD it is +0.02%
BTC is +0.11%

Now we have cool indicator that will work on every pair you like with no manual adjusting, easy to use and no magic under the hood
Observer effect
  • #496
  • Feb 21, 2022 1:45pm Feb 21, 2022 1:45pm
Today was extremely great trading day for me.

+12.67% in USD and +21.12% in BTC

How to make it? There is some "issue" on crypto market that can be exploited. Since there are several type of assets (BTC, USDT) and markets (Inverse Perpetual, USDT Perpetual, Inverse Futures and Spot) so you can have some magic around. Later I'll post here how it works. But you need to be well equipped for that. Remember: no drawing tools, no predictions, no guessing, no praying, no dreaming. Only math! Only hardcore!

Stay tuned
Observer effect
  • #497
  • Feb 22, 2022 3:31am Feb 22, 2022 3:31am
Let's proceed talking about math and approach in trading.

I don't want to comment in other thread, just post it here as example.
One guy posted some "new" system.

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Looking so fresh. No one never combined indicators like that.

But let's examine what we have here. Oh, we have 2 oscillators at the same time - RSI and CCI.
If you check formulas for RSI and CCI you will see that their logic are about the same. Having them both on one chart is the same like to have watches one with Arabic and one Roman numerals. They show SAME time.

Next we have MA and ichimoku. Wow. Wow. Wow. Not so fast! Ichimoku has moving average data inside? Yeah. So here we have moving average twice. Again.

And last. Support and Resistance. Oh dear. More than 20 million years people created language, letters, words, sentences. But on forex support mean not support, resistance mean not resistance. What is it? It is higher and lower price at X distance back. It is NOT support. It is NOT resistance. There are no data to analyze it. It is just highest/lowest close values of X candles back.

So what we have:
1. Oscillators twice
2. Average price indicator twice
3. Support/resistance that are not support/resistance but just high and low close price

All you have here are OHCL - open, high, close, low. ONLY! There are no more data. You can mix it as you like. You can multiply it, divide, check the weather in Denmark, check the Moon cycle. Do what you want - but you have only these data. And in fact in 99.99% cases only close values.

That how forex works. Lack of data and cheating in the description.

People ask how to succeed in trading. First you have to forget all the bullshit you read and understand that stochastic can't show oversold areas, support and resistance are neither support nor resistance. After you realize that simple statement we can proceed a few steps forward.
Observer effect
  • #498
  • Feb 22, 2022 3:02pm Feb 22, 2022 3:02pm
Today I was busy with my python bot. Half a day I was figuring out how to round numbers in python haha
If XRP price is something like 0.6954, there are 4 digits after dot then BTC price is like 40000.15
There are only 2 digits after dot and the step is .05 and it can't be 40000.13, it must be or 40000.10 or 40000.15

But I did it! stackoverflow rule!

Attached Image

So today were no forex trades and no USDT trades. Only BTC trades, but they were damn good! Because now I can enter the trade fast as Eagly's fly in Peacemaker show . And also set my TP like a bullet!

+1.28% Long
+0.51% Short
+0.50% Short
+0.50% Short
+0.50% Short
+4.47% Short
+4.28% Short

Total +12.56% BTC grow
Observer effect
  • #499
  • Feb 24, 2022 1:23am Feb 24, 2022 1:23am
Yesterday was:

BTC +23.23%
USDT -0.14%

How the loss happened? First trade was averaged 3 times, so since the leverage was too high I have decided to buy some BTC from my USDT equity. They weren't needed, that was made for security reasons. To support the trade and get out. And then all was sold back.
So literally that loss was not from trading, but from money management. Some issue with decimals.
Observer effect
  • #500
  • Feb 24, 2022 3:18am Feb 24, 2022 3:18am
Yesterday I created one interesting indicator.

As you all know I'm using Stochastic as entry confirmation and for exit purpose (for exit it is just perfect).

But I don't like that it is oscillator and it can show >80 for example for a long time. In fact due to its formula in some circumstances it can show that forever.

I don't like OHCL data, especially on forex. Because it is corrupted. So I have decided to create the indicator based on average candle size. It must check not if current candle close > than average of X candles back (because it is too easy to forge), but check the distance.

For that purpose, to let it work on every asset with no manual adjustment, I have decided to start my calculations from average candle size and then use some multiplier to draw the lines.

Also I have added arrows and here we go:

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And that is how it looks like on chart screen:

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It is better than Stochastic or RSI. The logic is the same, but here we have not a static values, but dynamic. So the calculations are much more accurate.

This post is not about how smart I am or about my coding skills, it is just to show you all that it IS possible to create the system. There is no need to draw lines on the charts and think that price hit it because you draw it. Just don't stop. Research, invest, trade!
Observer effect
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