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  • #301
  • Jan 1, 2022 10:19am Jan 1, 2022 10:19am
Quoting ryuryu
Happy New Year to all! I'm back and ready to provide some useful stuff for you guys and girls! Stay tuned! First, I want to tell you one thing. It is much much much easier to trade unknown crypto coins then forex. The thing is that there are no demo traders on crypto market, and there are no retired "I know everything" old assholes like on forex. There are no EAs, few indicators and a lot of degen gamblers with real money. And the volatility and volume are much higher. Example: yesterday, 31.12, I made 5.01% easy with 3 trades: Long SXPUSDT +0.96%...
Hi ryuryu
several people told me is easier to trade crypto than forex. I will investigate it.
Ok, you are using standard indicators and it's fine but the question is how you are using them?
MAs perform budly when market is ranging, so how do you manage such situation?
I used stochastic in the past but didn't get any particular edge from them and dropped it.
cheers
  • #302
  • Jan 1, 2022 10:48am Jan 1, 2022 10:48am
First we need to understand that we need an axe to chop the wood and a spoon to eat the soup. Of course we can try to chop the wood using a spoon and to eat the soup using an axe but it is not the way.

Let's find instruments and try to use them correctly.
1. Moving average
What moving average is? It is average open/close/high or low price for X candles back. Why it is good? Because 3 moving average are showing the direction. If they are in correct order, if the price is at correct distance then everything good. So we will use moving average to filter the trades. If the price is higher the correct ordered moving averages then we are taking only longs, if it is lower then only shorts.
2. Stochastic. In short, it is "is the current price higher/lower then average price of X candles back". In fact it is much complicated but we can keep in mind that simple explanation.
There are many places in the internet where we can find that Stoch is showing oversold and overbought areas. This is not true, because it has no traded volume data. Also we must understand that Stoch is oscillator and it has 0-100 range only, so it can show "top" or "bottom" forever (in some conditions).

That's why we will use both: MA to filter Stoch.
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Let's check this example.
1. MA order = long
2. Price is higher all 3 EMA
3. Price is lower 6 EMA low
4. Stoch is out of the range

Also you can check Stoch later and see that there were a lot offake short signals. But since MAs are in long order we just skip them. If you are pro you can use these signals for long too. But there are so many coins on the market so there is no need to overtrade.

Today I made onlky 2 trades:
Long CHRUSDT +1.69%
Long ATOMUSDT +2.89%
it is +4.57% in total. I think it is just great.

I forgot to say that Stoch is just GREAT to find exit points. It is perfect, best! The guy who created Stoch formula is genius!
Observer effect
  • #303
  • Jan 1, 2022 11:34am Jan 1, 2022 11:34am
Is it correct this setup or just an unfortunate case?
probably it's necessary to take the SL and move on. Isn't it?
using EURUSD just as an example as I do not have crypto on this broker.
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  • #304
  • Jan 1, 2022 12:36pm Jan 1, 2022 12:36pm
Quoting Merka
Is it correct this setup or just an unfortunate case? probably it's necessary to take the SL and move on. Isn't it? using EURUSD just as an example as I do not have crypto on this broker. {image}
May be I forgot to say but this approach is for crypto only. Because crypto has no sessions and it works 24/7 it is a little bit different. On forex I'm trading using imbalances only. As I understand due to sessions and other restrictions higher TFs on forex are much complicated. May be I'm wrong but I don't trade forex higher than 1m. But on crypto I never go lower than 1h.

But you example is good, it is valid entry. Also there are a lot of good entries for long too.

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Regarding stop loss I'm not using it for the first trade. I'll add more or reverse the trade depending on the market condition and only after second trade I'll place the SL.
I'm trading 1h because if the position go underwater I switch to 4h to find the place to add more. Then 6h and 12h.
Observer effect
  • #305
  • Jan 1, 2022 11:54pm Jan 1, 2022 11:54pm
Let me explain my thoughts about forex vs crypto timeframes.
As you know crypto works 24/7 and there are no weekends, bank holidays and sessions. So there are no interruptions. So we can use for example 1h TF and EMA60. It is just 60 hours back.
On forex 60 hours back is... in fact it is few weeks. Because one session is about 3-5 hours only. Start of the day is total bs, Asian session is useless too. London is ok, but with limitations, NY is good but may be first 1-2 hours only.
Thats why on forex it make sense to use higher TFs, like daily. That will smooth the data. Or use lower TFs like 1m, because then you can have a room to calculate your data using indicators. 1h-4h for daily trading is not good on forex I think. Because the indicators can't find enough data to show you correct caclulations.
Observer effect
  • #306
  • Jan 9, 2022 6:44pm Jan 9, 2022 6:44pm
Here are my thoughts.
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  • #307
  • Jan 10, 2022 7:30am Jan 10, 2022 7:30am
Today trades:

+2.69% ZECUSDT
+3.35% NEARUSDT
-0.47% ALGOUSDT
+1.32% ALGOUSDT
+0.43% ALGOUSDT
+0.14% ALGOUSDT
+0.29% UNIUSDT
+0.59% UNIUSDT
+0.66% ONEUSDT
+0.60% LUNAUSDT
+0.05% LUNAUSDT

Total +10%

Let me explain very important thing about crypto trading.
As you know I'm a big fan of RickM's volume/delta approach. I found it very interesting. That fact that forex brokers hide the volume data tell me that that data is extremely important. That's why we are trading forex using CME futures data to get volume/delta data.

But on crypto there are still some exchanges with fair volume data.
So there is no need to buy any external data to trade crypto. Just take native data and go!
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Observer effect
  • #308
  • Jan 10, 2022 12:05pm Jan 10, 2022 12:05pm
Great stuff! Just brilliant. I wish I had your energy and drive. Kudos!
  • #309
  • Jan 10, 2022 1:27pm Jan 10, 2022 1:27pm
I spend my time studying your posts ... I want to learn to trade in a similar way ...
It is all very interesting.
I perceive what the main problem is than understanding as gaining the ability to react quickly, a kind of automatism. Let's call it a skill.
This is the hardest part of the whole game ...
But what do I have to lose?

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  • #310
  • Jan 10, 2022 11:00pm Jan 10, 2022 11:00pm
A lot of people asking me about the details.

Okay first let's talk about exchanges available and their data. Next about indicators.

Exchanges.
On forex I'm using ICMarkets it has 5.5$ fee per 100k trade. If you want to have not standard 7$ but 5.5$ too please PM me I'll send them email and they will reduce your fees too.

On crypto I'm using bybit. A lot of people use binance, but it has no rebates for limit orders. Binance fee is 150$ per 100k. So if you compare forex 5.5$ vs crypto 150$ there is pretty big difference, especially if you want to scalp.
That's why personally I see no sense trading on binance. Bybit has limit order rebates and instead of spending 150$ per 100k you will earn 50$ (+0.0025% rebate per trade vs -0.075% fee). Also binance has very strange volume data. It looks like bullshit useless tick data on forex. But bybit data is very good. It seems like they are using true real trading volume.
If you want to have a welcome bonus and reduces fees on bybit also pm me I'll send you my referral link.

Indicators.
I have created several custom indicators to help me to trade. But in fact they are some kind of a mix of well-known. I'm using tradingview platform to check charts.
For example

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This is just 3 stochastic and 1 RSI on one chart with some color logic. As I said many times stochastic is just perfect not even to find the entry but for exit purposes. For exits it is just perfect (in fact it is perfect for entries too).

There is a little issue with indicators on tradingview. If you have free plan you can add only 3 indicators. So 3 x Stoch and 1 RSI is impossible to add. That's why I have created that 4in1.

... to be continued
Observer effect
  • #311
  • Jan 11, 2022 9:09am Jan 11, 2022 9:09am
Okay let's proceed.

How to mix Stoch (or RSI) with volume data to get Stoch filtered?

Let's check the chart.

Attached Image

Here we have "overbought" stochastic. In fact as I said many times stochastic can't show oversold or overbought because there are volume data presented in its formula. Also it is oscillator, so since it has a range 0-100 only that "overbought" can last forever.

But here we have very good Volume Delta indicator. It tell us that there were more sells than buys. And only when stoch was at the bottom AND the delta for buys were bigger we can safely enter the long.

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Observer effect
  • #312
  • Jan 11, 2022 11:41am Jan 11, 2022 11:41am
Today was a good day +11.73%

1.62% FTMUSDT
0.47% BNBUSDT
0.29% NEARUSDT
0.45% XRPUSDT
0.22% KAVAUSDT
0.90% NEARUSDT
0.36% NEARUSDT
0.70% NEARUSDT
0.69% NEARUSDT
0.30% NEARUSDT
0.40% NEARUSDT
0.26% NEARUSDT
0.23% NEARUSDT
0.13% NEARUSDT
0.17% NEARUSDT
0.30% NEARUSDT
0.08% NEARUSDT
0.13% NEARUSDT
0.03% NEARUSDT
-0.06% NEARUSDT
0.46% NEARUSDT
0.26% NEARUSDT
0.07% NEARUSDT
0.78% NEARUSDT
0.12% NEARUSDT
0.07% NEARUSDT
0.05% NEARUSDT
0.19% NEARUSDT
0.11% NEARUSDT
0.09% NEARUSDT
1.27% NEARUSDT

Most profit was made on NEAR coin. I don't know what the world it is
I never read news or gossips or twitter. I want to know nothing about any asset I trade. Because all the information just mess the things.
All I need is:
1. Moving average and the dynamic envelope calculated from asset ADR
2. Stoch to see the entry and especially the exit points
3. Volume to get DELTA
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Observer effect
  • #313
  • Jan 11, 2022 12:51pm Jan 11, 2022 12:51pm
Ryuryu... I call it "mowing the lawn" ...
Today only two scalps on gold... 0,6% ... well, got out to early ...

Attached Image
  • #314
  • Edited 4:58pm Jan 11, 2022 3:57pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting ryuryu
Okay let's proceed. How to mix Stoch (or RSI) with volume data to get Stoch filtered? Let's check the chart. {image} Here we have "overbought" stochastic. In fact as I said many times stochastic can't show oversold or overbought because there are volume data presented in its formula. Also it is oscillator, so since it has a range 0-100 only that "overbought" can last forever. But here we have very good Volume Delta indicator. It tell us that there were more sells than buys. And only when stoch was at the bottom AND the delta for buys were bigger...
Do you still use this delta volume also on your trades on Forex or you have a paid volume service?
How do you use the stochastic for exit?

coincidently we have a very similar way of trading.
The only difference is that I never used volume before because it's useless on forex without a paid service.

Cheers
  • #316
  • Edited 10:40pm Jan 11, 2022 10:26pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting BlackNapkins
Ryuryu... I call it "mowing the lawn" ... Today only two scalps on gold... 0,6% ... well, got out to early ... {image}
Great job! Feel free to share screenshots of your charts. Gold is very good to trade. In fact on forex I'm trading gold mostly because it has very good volatility.

Quoting Merka
{quote} Do you still use this delta volume also on your trades on Forex or you have a paid volume service?
On forex I'm using paid service for MT5 platform and for tradinvgview. On tradingview it cost 4$/mo to get CME futures data in real time, for mt5 it is about 25$ / 4 month something like that.

Quoting Merka
How do you use the stochastic for exit?
This logic: On first opposite stoch found. Since you enter, for example, on "yellow" (when 3 stoch and 1 RSI are "underwater") then you can exit on first found "blue". It will be or top, or start on the big uptrend. But because I'm not a magician and for me it is impossible to predict the future it is better to close the position in profit then to wait for miracle.

Example:
Attached Image
Observer effect
  • #317
  • Jan 12, 2022 1:33am Jan 12, 2022 1:33am
Ryuryu,
Yes, I will show my trades for sure, but first I have to get practice and confidence. Although I have studied order flow - volume profile - footprint from various sources before, I do not feel that I can apply everything that is in my head to live. Your friend RickM got me interested in this topic while ago. I need a lot of time to acquire knowledge and be able to apply it. It was this thread that made me find the most suitable form of applying it all. AT least I think so. I am an introvert and social media (that's what FF is for me, 95% of noise - 5% of valuable information, or even less) are not very friendly environment. But I read everything you write ...
Best regards, thank you for the great thread.
  • #318
  • Jan 12, 2022 4:04am Jan 12, 2022 4:04am
Quoting BlackNapkins
Ryuryu, Yes, I will show my trades for sure, but first I have to get practice and confidence. Although I have studied order flow - volume profile - footprint from various sources before, I do not feel that I can apply everything that is in my head to live. Your friend RickM got me interested in this topic while ago. I need a lot of time to acquire knowledge and be able to apply it. It was this thread that made me find the most suitable form of applying it all. AT least I think so. I am an introvert and social media (that's what FF is for me, 95%...
I would say that 99.99% on FF is not about trading but about magic and gambling. All that fancy "if 2 candles in a row are red then next will be red too" or "I feel the oversold area" are very funny but there is nothing to learn or copy at all. In my opinion only RickM is sharing really great stuff. His approach has no luck involved, pure math.

Now let's go back to the logic of trading.

First we need to determine the trend. Trend is not our friend like most people say but piss against the wind is not good at all.
How to determine the trend? Pretty easy. You can use several moving averages for that. Personally I'm using 3 - they are 60, 120 and 240. You can use 20 or 100 or 2. It doesn't matter much.

Next we need to check the location. Let's say we need some GPS signal. We know that we are climbing the rock, or rolling down from the hill, but we must also understand current position. This is hardest part because here we must use math and real time calculations. Also we must have some start point where will start our calculations from. I'm using EURUSD pair because I think that everything is related to the dollar. May be I'm wrong and everything in the world related to the Turkish lira, so that's why that data is a variable.
Why it is hard? Because the distance is different for each pair we trade and we have to create some kind of multiplier and it must suite all the pairs. And recalculate in real time if we are switching the timeframes and changing instruments.

Third easy part is where to exit. Stochastic or RSI (or any oscillator) will run that job with great success. Why? Because it is easy. Because it is simple. And it works like a sharm. Always.

Next, not easy part, is volume. MUST HAVE. We must have a volume data to make trading decisions. Without volume data it is like running with closed eyes at night through the forex praying not to hit any tree and not to smash your head. We have to pay for external data, to hire a coder or to create the instruments to work with volume. Since trading is business those spending are just the costs. I'm using a lot of custom indicators, dashboards, robots and other stuff. For example I have a robot that will only "try to close the position using limit orders". You will never be so fast like it. You will never see the orderbook like it. But it can do your job for you very fast and accurate.
Observer effect
  • #319
  • Jan 12, 2022 6:28am Jan 12, 2022 6:28am
Thanks, ryuryu for info on crypto. I kept away from it bc of the huge cfd spreads; will start investigating bybit tradingview combo. I rarely use pending, so I guess no rebates.
  • #320
  • Jan 12, 2022 7:00am Jan 12, 2022 7:00am
Quoting deukae
Thanks, ryuryu for info on crypto. I kept away from it bc of the huge cfd spreads; will start investigating bybit tradingview combo. I rarely use pending, so I guess no rebates.
Yeah you absolutely right. It is impossible to trade crypto on forex due to very big spreads and margin requirements.
On crypto exchanges there are no spread at all. But the commissions are 27 times bigger (5.5$ vs 150$).
The good thing that there are some exchanges where you can have rebates for using limit orders. But the trading becomes different.
That's why I'm using stochastic as exit point because in most cases the speed of market starts to slow down and you can exit using limit order. Also you have to remember that stop loss orders are market orders by its nature. They are always market. So you will pay your fee if your SL will be triggered.
Observer effect
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