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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #561
  • Jan 3, 2022 3:03pm Jan 3, 2022 3:03pm
Assets managers increasing longs, while MM going heavy short


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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #562
  • Jan 3, 2022 3:05pm Jan 3, 2022 3:05pm
Big 10 years long always preceded a drop in equities

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #563
  • Jan 5, 2022 5:46am Jan 5, 2022 5:46am
Get ready for risk off event accross the globe

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #564
  • Jan 5, 2022 7:19am Jan 5, 2022 7:19am
Quoting kuroro001
Get ready for risk off event accross the globe {image}
JPY prices have been falling since start of Dec and accelerated from 20th Dec onwards.

There has been a slight retracement today, but who knows, it could decide to keep pushing higher although I'd love to see them all retrace at least 50% of the move though predictions can never be so sweet.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #565
  • Jan 5, 2022 7:56am Jan 5, 2022 7:56am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} JPY prices have been falling since start of Dec and accelerated from 20th Dec onwards. There has been a slight retracement today, but who knows, it could decide to keep pushing higher although I'd love to see them all retrace at least 50% of the move though predictions can never be so sweet.
Short side of the dumb money is going crazy
Once they close....a jpy rally like crazy

It represent almost 50% of the open interest...huge shorts waiting to be closed
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #566
  • Jan 5, 2022 8:25pm Jan 5, 2022 8:25pm
Quoting kuroro001
New COT report tomorrow, but its important to see what's happening on the USD Hedge funds are clearly getting rid of their USD, it doesn't mean downtrend is coming ..... ....but you should do like they do: Selling USD rallies {image}

Interesting comparison. Hedge funds also moving funds into Oil sector, they predict further rise in Oil (WTI).
Can we trust their move? What can you see on your side?

So I looked in to this website where COT is available also, takes time to digest all the reports available.

Thanks, J
  • #567
  • Jan 6, 2022 5:12am Jan 6, 2022 5:12am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Interesting comparison. Hedge funds also moving funds into Oil sector, they predict further rise in Oil (WTI). Can we trust their move? What can you see on your side? So I looked in to this website where COT is available also, takes time to digest all the reports available. Thanks, J
Hello Jolita

A few things about Oil. Its not something you can trust 100% regarding the COT report, but here is my stake

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Chart above represents the producers. Net long or net short
1 / First mistake : Whenever they are massively short, you could expect more downside....But instead they clear their short, and price rises nicely (highlighted with red arrows)
2 / The "right" thing to do for producers would be to accumulate long contracts when it dips right ? that's what they did highlighted by the blue rectangle
3 / Check what they are doing right now : They accumulate longs on top ? I wouldn't trust this move at all. Its clearly stupid to me, more long accumulation than the past few years.

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Now for the hegde fund part : They are not accumulating on the way up
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #568
  • Edited 6:34pm Jan 7, 2022 3:03pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hello Jolita A few things about Oil. Its not something you can trust 100% regarding the COT report, but here is my stake {image}Chart above represents the producers. Net long or net short 1 / First mistake : Whenever they are massively short, you could expect more downside....But instead they clear their short, and price rises nicely (highlighted with red arrows) 2 / The "right" thing to do for producers would be to accumulate long contracts when it dips right ? that's what they did highlighted by the blue rectangle 3 / Check what they are...

Hi Kuroro,

Thank you for taking time to look into. Sorry for delay in my reply.
Interesting COT data you got there and no surprise data is confusing. Oil prices rose by 50%, producers are buying their own contracts which are no longer profitable, in fact they are taking huge losses due to a difference in price purchased and where the price is now.
When you think to buy a new contract at todays price is very risky, no one knows, price might drop back to 63, risk is large.
A few producers started to make decisions and has stopped purchasing these future contracts.
Overall sentiment for Oil was long this week, yet price moved both directions. USA is trying to reduce the price, Russia and UAE desperate to increase. Very mixed sentiment, not straight forward. Hedge Funds started buying Oil. All a bit mixed up.

Oil price is rising one hour, falling the next, there is political uncertainty, weather conditions, pandemic issues.
I was long bias, but changed too short.

Thanks for the view, I find it interesting. Speak soon

Hedge Funds Turn Bullish On Oil As Omicron Fears Fade | OilPrice.com
  • #569
  • Jan 7, 2022 3:04pm Jan 7, 2022 3:04pm
VIX (#spx #ndx)
VIX short hedge funds are below the treshold of worries of 5%

You should get worried too

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #570
  • Jan 8, 2022 7:07am Jan 8, 2022 7:07am
#Mexican peso

I would suggest to start clearing your MXN longs because it doesn't look beautiful for the future

First chart below represents the Assets managers, the short side. As you can see they are retreating off their big short as price rise. Big and quick retreat

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Chart below represents the short side of the hedge funds. I don't tend to rely a lot of it as HF have a lot of different strategies. But their main strategy is to short the MXN for now, stay tuned
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Last chart represents the long side of the dealers. They went from 20% to 0,5% long. What does it mean ? Longs are gone, follow the smart money
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #571
  • Jan 8, 2022 9:40am Jan 8, 2022 9:40am
Hi Kuroro,

Forgot to ask what time frame / period you've selected on COT report for Oil? Thanks
  • #572
  • Jan 9, 2022 1:47am Jan 9, 2022 1:47am
Quoting Jolita
Hi Kuroro, Forgot to ask what time frame / period you've selected on COT report for Oil? Thanks
Hi Jolita,

COT is released once a week. The tool is most properly for time frame Weekly, for sentiment research to look for WHAT buy/sell. Lower time frame Daily/H4 depending WHERE you buy/sell.

Still I am learning it how to read COT report but I really am grateful to Kuroro001 because thanks to this subject I am not lossy finally.

I am faithful to the topic on this site.

Thank you

Sincerely
Kef
  • #573
  • Edited 3:34am Jan 9, 2022 2:36am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting kuroro001
#Mexican peso I would suggest to start clearing your MXN longs because it doesn't look beautiful for the future First chart below represents the Assets managers, the short side. As you can see they are retreating off their big short as price rise. Big and quick retreat {image} Chart below represents the short side of the hedge funds. I don't tend to rely a lot of it as HF have a lot of different strategies. But their main strategy is to short the MXN for now, stay tuned {image} Last chart represents the long side of the dealers. They went from 20%...
Corn is a strange crop
Jan Feb Harvesting Season - Planting starts March April - trend starts forming this is completely normal.
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  • #574
  • Jan 9, 2022 7:41am Jan 9, 2022 7:41am
Quoting Kef
{quote} Hi Jolita, COT is released once a week. The tool is most properly for time frame Weekly, for sentiment research to look for WHAT buy/sell. Lower time frame Daily/H4 depending WHERE you buy/sell. Still I am learning it how to read COT report but I really am grateful to Kuroro001 because thanks to this subject I am not lossy finally. I am faithful to the topic on this site. Thank you Sincerely Kef

Hi Kef, thank you for the info.

I am new to this COT reporting, but it is great analysis, that helps to get an advanced knowledge of positions held.

Which site is best to use?

I've looked into these-
CFTC.com
TheIce.com
  • #575
  • Jan 9, 2022 8:19am Jan 9, 2022 8:19am
Quoting q_import
{quote} Corn is a strange crop Jan Feb Harvesting Season - Planting starts March April - trend starts forming this is completely normal. {image}
In other word you mean Corn is correlated to the mexican peso ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #576
  • Jan 9, 2022 8:20am Jan 9, 2022 8:20am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi Kef, thank you for the info. I am new to this COT reporting, but it is great analysis, that helps to get an advanced knowledge of positions held. Which site is best to use? I've looked into these- CFTC.com TheIce.com
Yes cftc.gov is to get raw datas

Else, you can try cotunchained.com or barcharts.Com
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #577
  • Edited 10:00am Jan 9, 2022 9:48am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting kuroro001
Get ready for risk off event accross the globe {image}
Not yet....SMART MONEY are increasing their SHORT POSITIONS on JPY
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  • #578
  • Jan 9, 2022 9:50am Jan 9, 2022 9:50am
Last week positioning changing
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  • #579
  • Jan 9, 2022 11:31am Jan 9, 2022 11:31am
Quoting helioss
{quote} Not yet....SMART MONEY are increasing their SHORT POSITIONS on JPY {image}
To me Smart money is clearly loading some good longs
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Even Hedge funds are starting to buy the current bottom...
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #580
  • Jan 9, 2022 1:11pm Jan 9, 2022 1:11pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} To me Smart money is clearly loading some good longs {image} Even Hedge funds are starting to buy the current bottom... {image}
they are still on deflation ..
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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