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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #521
  • Oct 4, 2020 6:13am Oct 4, 2020 6:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Its fun you are talking about sugar & coffee, as this week end i was looking at the spread strategy between these two commodities But first about coffee : Money managers, the short side have started to increase shorts at the bottom. Shorts are still very very low....but an increase here and now is never a good sign. What i look at, are the swap dealers. They were very short, and retreated most of their positions after this drop. Overall, trend is down, market participants are not looking at a significant rise.....but they are getting prepared....
Yes, I also think that coffee is going to drop a little more, or much more due to a decrease in demand, on sugar I see a great moment of sale now
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
  • #522
  • Oct 5, 2020 7:41am Oct 5, 2020 7:41am
Quoting afevir
{quote} Yes, I also think that coffee is going to drop a little more, or much more due to a decrease in demand, on sugar I see a great moment of sale now
Monthly coffee could drop big to 75/85 dollars though.

I like to buy coffee when its below 100 dollars, it makes it cheap (as its 40% undervalued). So i'm dreaming of a price below 80 dollars (Poor producers won't dream about it though)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #523
  • Edited 8:21am Oct 5, 2020 8:04am | Edited 8:21am
may be heading to April 2019 lows
yes poor producers won't dream about it though
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
  • #524
  • Oct 5, 2020 8:15am Oct 5, 2020 8:15am
I'm waiting for the Nasdaq to drop a bit, if it does and the sugar remains as it is, I will go to the sweet tooth
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
  • #525
  • Oct 5, 2020 1:11pm Oct 5, 2020 1:11pm
Quoting afevir
I'm waiting for the Nasdaq to drop a bit, if it does and the sugar remains as it is, I will go to the sweet tooth
Sugar, cotton, all grains, i'm waiting for all of them to fall
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #526
  • Oct 30, 2020 12:46pm Oct 30, 2020 12:46pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Sugar, cotton, all grains, i'm waiting for all of them to fall
Hi Kuroro001

How was your week? I hope you are well in strange times. You do not update any your ideas, thinking. I miss them. Could you write here, update specially Sugar ?

Than you

SIncerely
Kef
  • #527
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:03am Oct 31, 2020 5:03am
Quoting Kef
{quote} Hi Kuroro001 How was your week? I hope you are well in strange times. You do not update any your ideas, thinking. I miss them. Could you write here, update specially Sugar ? Than you SIncerely Kef
Hello

Yes i have been busy with a few stuffs
i'll post a few charts today, sugar, some grains, etc...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #528
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:14am Oct 31, 2020 5:14am
Sugar : Ultra topish

Sugar is very topish as per positionning. All is extreme here

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Producers are increasing their short, they are very short hedged, more than before the covid dip
Something bigger ahead?

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Money managers are all in, they aren't pricing any dip, which mean they'll have to get out quickly and strongly once it starts dropping

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Here is a chart of the long side of the producers in regards to the long side of the money managers. Chart speak for itself.
Producers are stronger than the money managers on the short side.
Smart money is bigger than the dumb money here
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #529
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:17am Oct 31, 2020 5:17am
Quoting kuroro001
Sugar : Ultra topish Sugar is very topish as per positionning. All is extreme here {image}Producers are increasing their short, they are very short hedged, more than before the covid dip Something bigger ahead? {image}Money managers are all in, they aren't pricing any dip, which mean they'll have to get out quickly and strongly once it starts dropping {image}Here is a chart of the long side of the producers in regards to the long side of the money managers. Chart speak for itself. Producers are stronger than the money managers on the short side....
hey mate, how do u analyze pairs that are not against usd with cot? same way?
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #530
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:20am Oct 31, 2020 5:20am
Corn : On the verge of a steep fall ?

Double dip recession being priced for the corn ?

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Producers are very short hedged. More short over the past 5 years, it is something to consider if you keep buying this market

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Money managers are all in long. You don't want to follow them here and there

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By having a look at the short side of the money managers, they have vanished

EDIT : Soybean and Wheat are the same (Soybean stronger short)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #531
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:32am Oct 31, 2020 5:32am
Update of my long gas/short crude oil strategy

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #532
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:42am Oct 31, 2020 5:42am
Natural gas to continue higher ?

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Producers are increasing their net shorts, its far from its old peak, but something to consider

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Swap dealers shorts is what i look at, its a risky bet to keep buying gas. Ideally above 4 dollars is good to sell. But i may look for some shorts in the coming week, as swap dealers are increasing them

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The short side of the money managers are very far from being gone
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #533
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:43am Oct 31, 2020 5:43am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} hey mate, how do u analyze pairs that are not against usd with cot? same way?
I cross the datas between them

Lets say you want to see GBPJPY
Then for each line, you do GBP long dealers - JPY long dealers = GBPJPY long dealers
etc....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #534
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:47am Oct 31, 2020 5:47am
Coffee long short sugar spread strategy

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #535
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:56am Oct 31, 2020 5:56am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I cross the datas between them Lets say you want to see GBPJPY Then for each line, you do GBP long dealers - JPY long dealers = GBPJPY long dealers etc....
thx
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #536
  • Oct 31, 2020 8:37am Oct 31, 2020 8:37am
Copper : Another opportunity to sell

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3 charts that speak for themselves, i have already explained them before
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #537
  • Nov 1, 2020 12:28pm Nov 1, 2020 12:28pm
Quoting kuroro001
Copper : Another opportunity to sell {image} {image} {image} 3 charts that speak for themselves, i have already explained them before
Hi Kuroro001

Thank you for sharing ideas. This place is where I found the most valuable information in practice.

SIncerely
Kef
  • #538
  • Edited 12:45am Nov 9, 2020 12:02am | Edited 12:45am
Dears

Please find the screens

Sugar - Here we see that the sentiment of producers and m. money are really extremely so we have big gap between them. The sentiments are in turnings and in my opinion the market strives to equilibrium. In the case of it I think we should expect big falls soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sugar.png Size: 33 KB

Coffee- Here I have noticed one thing. The peak of sentiment m. money is earlier so the price seems to be followed late. In my opinion we have changed the trend in midterm on chart already.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: coffee.png Size: 29 KB

I am eager to read your ideas. Please share here.

Thank you

Sincerely
Kef
  • #539
  • Nov 15, 2020 4:56am Nov 15, 2020 4:56am
Dears

Do we have the latest data available? As I noticed we have Futures only the report till 03/11/ 2020. The same situation with the report fInancial futures.

Thank you

SIncerely
Kef
  • #540
  • Nov 16, 2020 5:09pm Nov 16, 2020 5:09pm
Quoting kuroro001
Bitcoin rise done ? Both charts speak for themselves. {image} Short assets managers are gone....and they are wrong at turning points {image} Small traders seem to be right. The short side is getting stronger and stronger Short in the process ?
Would be nice to see any updates on bitcoin. Any thoughts on this?
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