Even in an extended longer term chart, CAD looks most interesting at the moment...... I am selling CAD. {image}
). At lower time frame, I am waiting CAD rebounds before I start selling again.....
Nat Gas Jan22-Dec21 spread: For 20 years of historical data, Jan-Dec spread has had a positive trend (Jan price is higher than Dec). I want to wait until the spread becomes narrower before I'd bet on spread widening. My risk is pre-calculated. I am not gonna bet on spread narrowing. It's riskier especially because this winter can be colder if weather forecast is correct. {image}{image}
{quote} Actually, this butterfly was just a proxy of Mar-April, so-called 'widow maker' spread. I wish I knew it before. I lost in two consecutive widow maker spread tradings: {quote} Amaranth Advisor lost $6B trading widow maker spread back in year 2006. Its legend is still alive. You should not touch widow maker. Period. {image}{image}
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Market is a very dangerous place to live.......... They took my money and gone......
https://youtu.be/QJ8lMPhxe7U {image}
{quote} It's 5 hours before regular market open but nat gas futures ADR already has reached 97.6%...... This means relatively easy and lucrative trading opportunities are done for the day already.
{quote} Nat Gas market in the U.S. is quite isolated market even though LNG and pipeline export is getting expanding. That being said, CME /NG futures is hardly be affected by foreign nat gas markets. This is different from crude oil.
{quote} Perhaps, the trend would be changing..... However, if energy price is soaring too much, I think U.S. gov would ban energy export again..... {image} Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Driving Up Natural Gas Prices Worldwide https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...Worldwide.html
{quote} U.S gas price is affected by foreign prices for the time being. However, fundamentally it looks it's somewhat overshooting. If this winter is not as cold as expected, U.S. price can collapse hard..... {image}{image}{image} https://seekingalpha.com/article/445...icit-shrinking
U.S Nat Gas export volume looks impressive now...... It's not neglectable anymore. {image} Source: seekingalpha.com
{image} Cold winter forecast drove up nat gas price for months and now warm winter forecast drives down nat gas price. Nat gas market heavily relies on the weather forecast but weather forecast is a gambling at best even with modern technologies......
{quote} {quote} {quote} Stock indices are also highly manipulated market just like Forex. Forex is even not under such regulation. There is no way for you to survive in this rat race in the long run. https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...rnd=markets-vp High-Frequency Trading Firm Pays $67.4 Million in Record Spoofing Penalty By Matt Robinson November 8, 2019, 3:13 AM GMT+9 Updated on November 9, 2019, 12:17 AM GMT+9 Tower Research Capital agreed to pay $67.4 million to settle allegations that three former traders at the firm engaged in spoofing, the largest penalty ever for such conduct, according to statements from the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The ex-traders on thousands of occasions placed orders to buy or sell futures contracts -- including E-Mini S&P 500, E-Mini NASDAQ 100 and E-Mini Dow -- with the intent to cancel those orders before they were executed, the agencies said Thursday. The conduct lasted from at least March 2012 through December 2013. The New York-based firm entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department. “Tower is deeply disappointed by the conduct of the three former employees named in this case, each of whom left the firm nearly six years ago,” company spokesman Rich Myers said in an emailed statement. “Since this matter came to light, Tower has cooperated with the government’s investigation and substantially improved its compliance and control functions.” The former traders are Kamaldeep Gandhi, 37, and Krishna Mohan, 34, both of New York, and Bruce Mao, 40, a Chinese citizen, according to the Justice Department’s statement. Gandhi and Mohan both pleaded guilty to commodities fraud and spoofing in November 2018, according to the Thursday statement, which didn’t have details on Mao’s legal status. Gandhi and Mohan are scheduled to be sentenced next year. ‘Bogus Orders’ “Traders at Tower Research Capital LLC fraudulently placed thousands of bogus orders they never intended to execute—to deceive other market participants and move the market for their own benefit,” Brian Benczkowski, the assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s criminal division, said in the statement. In settling the CFTC case, Tower didn’t admit or deny the agency’s allegations. The CFTC credited Tower for making of number of changes since learning of the traders’ misconduct, including reorganizing its supervisory structure and compliance program. The firm also has made “significant investments in sophisticated trade surveillance tools,” the CFTC said in its order. The U.S. has been cracking down on spoofing, a tactic in which traders place orders without intending to execute them to try to move prices in their favor. Spoofing can be done manually by traders or through computer algorithms. It involves flooding the market with orders that are later canceled when prices move in the direction the spoofer wants. While there’s nothing wrong with canceling orders, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act made it illegal to place orders with no intention of executing them. Tower is one of Wall Street’s oldest high-frequency trading firms, which use computers to buy and sell securities at speeds faster than the blink of an eye. It was founded more than two decades ago by Chairman Mark Gorton, a former Credit Suisse Group AG proprietary trader. Gorton, 53, stepped down as chief executive officer in August. Tower has seen its market share shrink, with firms such as Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial Inc. investing lots of money in technology and gobbling up huge chunks of equity trading, Larry Tabb, founder of research firm Tabb Group, said in August. A good posting about this topic. You understand why you should avoid stock indices: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...enalty.337633/ {image} "This is my opinion, but these indexes and a lot of equities do not trade like markets anymore. There are human elements to a market that make something a market. When it's high speed robots trading against other high speed robots, not only is edge for the regular guy going away faster, but its no longer tracking the value of the thing. Why do you think value investing sticks to deeply undervalued stocks? Simply because with less analyst and news coverage there is significant edge in trading something the HFTs and big banks aren't looking at. Take for example oil futures. There is a market there. Sure there is likely HFT arbitrage, but it's significantly less. There's not enough ability for the HFTs to manipulate it because there are other actors with just as much capital. Hedge desks from giant oil companies for example. But when you look at the ES, YM, NQ, etc it's just noise. There's very little tradeable there because the indexes aren't tracking the market at large. Speculators serve an important purpose, but HFTs are not speculating. They're bouncing trades back in forth between each other, front running, and manipulating markets. Not in the "corner the silver market" manipulation. But in a "technologically lock everyone out of profit" sense. Sure, I probably pissed off people who think they've figured out the S&P but the probability of them keeping profits in those "markets" is so astronomically low as a retail they're just dunning kruger-ing themselves into believing they can predict the future. Edge is in where no one is looking. The index futures are basically horse races."
{quote} {image}I call it a typical 'chaser removing maneuver'. Market makers love to fuck up average Joe and Jane who believe themselves are traders......'Prediction' or 'expectation' in this business doesn't work in the long run. 'Reaction' is the only way to survive.
{quote} {quote} Obviously, the target was 2020 high. Very often market pulls back and removes weak players before it continues its play. Don't be mad. That's how this game works.{image} {image} https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...barrier-745507 {image} https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...e-202106240538
{quote} Another pivot factory joke. I have NEVER seen positive return live TEs posted by pivot factory people. As I said, there is a obvious reason why people don't post live TE.
{quote} {quote} This is a picture from yesterday nat gas market. Another example of a typical 'chaser removing maneuver'. Selling continuation was expected and big players indeed had an intention to do that. As expected, all the average Joe and Jane jumped in selling. However, market hates these chasers. So it had to remove them before it continued to do its duty. They know exactly where average Joe and Jane put their stop losses.
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{quote} I took profit too early (as usual
My latest war room. I reduced the number of monitors. Mostly only two monitors are active during the day. Now hardly use Windows PC, only use it to occasionally watch Neflix movies with wider monitor attached. My day starts when Tokyo opens. I turn on Bloomberg TV and MotiveWave first, then read Fxempire.com Nat Gas daily analysis. Lastly, I check Twitter news and Elitetrader.com and Forexfactory. As a Nat Gas spread trader, I spend very minimum time for trading which I like the most. I spend my day playing PS4 games, watching Netflix and taking...
{quote} My updated war room setup. Added one more ultra wide monitor. I like this monitor. It's easier to watch 3 time frames altogether. Somewhat messy at the moment though......
{quote} Nice setup and I hope it will make your trading more efficient. As for me I trade with 3 brokers; a few currency pairs with one broker, NG with another broker and WTI with my last broker but I can't see myself looking at many screens at the same time. The only thing I need for trading is an excellent internet connection. Good luck trading and have a nice weekend with your family. {image}
