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  • #2,321
  • Nov 8, 2019 11:19pm Nov 8, 2019 11:19pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Personally I've decided to believe he's a legit. He often trades in real-time with live chat sessions. It's impossible to manipulate performance in this way because everybody watches the same chart and same price. Anyway, his trading style is very simple and interesting. It looks he never bother to do top down analysis (multi timeframe analysis) and he always sticks to one minute chart. I've never seen he changes the timeframe in his videos. It may make sense as he's a scalper. He mainly uses VWAP plus normal...
I saw he changed TF to 5M in today's video....... Ok, so he occasionally watches 5M too.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,322
  • Edited 6:29am Nov 9, 2019 6:09am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting heispark
{quote} It's not coincidence he focuses on Natural Gas. Price action is much easier to read........ You should try it yourself to see if it's true..... I think I will become a big fan of Natural Gas....... {image}
Quoting heispark
I think Bookmap can be more suitable to me than Jigsaw. I like this video. It's also interesting to hear the reason why this presenter prefers stocks against futures these days. https://youtu.be/YBI79bztF_M
Quoting heispark
{image} I personally believe liquidity in forex market is highly exaggerated and it's also prone to manipulation.......
Stock indices are also highly manipulated market just like Forex. Forex is even not under such regulation. There is no way for you to survive in this rat race in the long run.

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...rnd=markets-vp

High-Frequency Trading Firm Pays $67.4 Million in Record Spoofing Penalty
By Matt Robinson
November 8, 2019, 3:13 AM GMT+9 Updated on November 9, 2019, 12:17 AM GMT+9

Tower Research Capital agreed to pay $67.4 million to settle allegations that three former traders at the firm engaged in spoofing, the largest penalty ever for such conduct, according to statements from the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The ex-traders on thousands of occasions placed orders to buy or sell futures contracts -- including E-Mini S&P 500, E-Mini NASDAQ 100 and E-Mini Dow -- with the intent to cancel those orders before they were executed, the agencies said Thursday. The conduct lasted from at least March 2012 through December 2013. The New York-based firm entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department.
“Tower is deeply disappointed by the conduct of the three former employees named in this case, each of whom left the firm nearly six years ago,” company spokesman Rich Myers said in an emailed statement. “Since this matter came to light, Tower has cooperated with the government’s investigation and substantially improved its compliance and control functions.”
The former traders are Kamaldeep Gandhi, 37, and Krishna Mohan, 34, both of New York, and Bruce Mao, 40, a Chinese citizen, according to the Justice Department’s statement. Gandhi and Mohan both pleaded guilty to commodities fraud and spoofing in November 2018, according to the Thursday statement, which didn’t have details on Mao’s legal status. Gandhi and Mohan are scheduled to be sentenced next year.
‘Bogus Orders’
“Traders at Tower Research Capital LLC fraudulently placed thousands of bogus orders they never intended to execute—to deceive other market participants and move the market for their own benefit,” Brian Benczkowski, the assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s criminal division, said in the statement.
In settling the CFTC case, Tower didn’t admit or deny the agency’s allegations. The CFTC credited Tower for making of number of changes since learning of the traders’ misconduct, including reorganizing its supervisory structure and compliance program. The firm also has made “significant investments in sophisticated trade surveillance tools,” the CFTC said in its order.
The U.S. has been cracking down on spoofing, a tactic in which traders place orders without intending to execute them to try to move prices in their favor. Spoofing can be done manually by traders or through computer algorithms. It involves flooding the market with orders that are later canceled when prices move in the direction the spoofer wants. While there’s nothing wrong with canceling orders, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act made it illegal to place orders with no intention of executing them.
Tower is one of Wall Street’s oldest high-frequency trading firms, which use computers to buy and sell securities at speeds faster than the blink of an eye. It was founded more than two decades ago by Chairman Mark Gorton, a former Credit Suisse Group AG proprietary trader. Gorton, 53, stepped down as chief executive officer in August.
Tower has seen its market share shrink, with firms such as Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial Inc. investing lots of money in technology and gobbling up huge chunks of equity trading, Larry Tabb, founder of research firm Tabb Group, said in August.

A good posting about this topic. You understand why you should avoid stock indices:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...enalty.337633/
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"This is my opinion, but these indexes and a lot of equities do not trade like markets anymore. There are human elements to a market that make something a market. When it's high speed robots trading against other high speed robots, not only is edge for the regular guy going away faster, but its no longer tracking the value of the thing. Why do you think value investing sticks to deeply undervalued stocks? Simply because with less analyst and news coverage there is significant edge in trading something the HFTs and big banks aren't looking at.
Take for example oil futures. There is a market there. Sure there is likely HFT arbitrage, but it's significantly less. There's not enough ability for the HFTs to manipulate it because there are other actors with just as much capital. Hedge desks from giant oil companies for example.
But when you look at the ES, YM, NQ, etc it's just noise. There's very little tradeable there because the indexes aren't tracking the market at large. Speculators serve an important purpose, but HFTs are not speculating. They're bouncing trades back in forth between each other, front running, and manipulating markets. Not in the "corner the silver market" manipulation. But in a "technologically lock everyone out of profit" sense. Sure, I probably pissed off people who think they've figured out the S&P but the probability of them keeping profits in those "markets" is so astronomically low as a retail they're just dunning kruger-ing themselves into believing they can predict the future. Edge is in where no one is looking. The index futures are basically horse races."
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,323
  • Edited 9:44am Nov 10, 2019 6:25am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image} https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...6#post12605976
Oh, ye~ How come I even didn't know my broker supports 1/4 size mini contract of NG....
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What I will do tomorrow is starting buying /QG. It is nearly risk free 100% winning oppotunity which comes back every 3-5 years.....
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FUTURES FOR ROOKIES
E-mini Natural Gas Futures
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...res-04-29-2016
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,324
  • Nov 10, 2019 6:54am Nov 10, 2019 6:54am
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,325
  • Nov 10, 2019 6:56pm Nov 10, 2019 6:56pm
Quoting heispark
/NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures) data feed comparison: CFD (IC Markets) vs. Futures (CQG & TD Ameritrade) 1M chart {image}{image} You don't want to trade CFD. It's a fake product.
CFD vs. Futures
Gap filled in Futures, while still not in CFD......
IC Market / Rithmic / Thinkorswim
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,326
  • Nov 11, 2019 8:17am Nov 11, 2019 8:17am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Oh, ye~ How come I even didn't know my broker supports 1/4 size mini contract of NG.... {image} What I will do tomorrow is starting buying /QG. It is nearly risk free 100% winning oppotunity which comes back every 3-5 years..... https://youtu.be/QYqRoPKhHwE FUTURES FOR ROOKIES E-mini Natural Gas Futures https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...res-04-29-2016
Maybe not...... ?
Basically, Futures is not designed for longer term investment.........

Rollover Risk
http://what-when-how.com/finance/rollover-risk-finance/

Traders will often maintain a long-term position in a futures market by holding a contract until near to its maturity, closing out the position and establishing a new position of similar size in a contract with a longer maturity. This is known as rolling a position forward. In following such a strategy the trader faces certain risks which would not arise if he had maintained a position in a single long-dated futures contract.
In particular the strategy is affected by the difference between the price at which the old contract is terminated and the new contract is entered into. The price difference between futures contracts on the same underlying asset but with different maturities is known as a calendar spread. The spread is predictable if the futures contracts are trading at their theoretical fair value. However, futures contracts often trade at a premium or discount to fair value, and this gives rise to rollover risk.
Suppose, for example, that the trader wants to be long on a futures contract. If the futures contract which he holds is trading at a discount to fair value and the contract which he wants to roll into is trading at a premium, then the trader will make a loss on rolling over. He is selling cheap and buying dear. Clearly, the position could well be the other way round, in which case the trader would make a rollover gain.
In principle, the trader could avoid rollover risk by entering into a futures contract whose maturity extends at least as far as the horizon over which the trader wants to maintain the position. In practice, there are a number of reasons why the trader may not wish to do this. First, there may not exist any traded futures contracts with a sufficiently long maturity. Second, the longer-dated contracts which are traded may be illiquid. In most futures markets much of the liquidity is in the contracts closest to maturity. The bid-ask spread tends to be narrower, and it is generally possible to deal in larger size in short-dated contracts. Third, rollover risk represents an opportunity as we ll as a danger. If the trader can forecast the behavior of the calendar spread, the strategy o f rolling from contract to contract may have a lower expected cost than a strategy of maintaining a position in a single long-dated contract.



What is a Rollover Adjustment?
https://www.plus500.com/FAQ/Financia...overAdjustment

Whenever a futures contract reaches its expiry date, and an automatic rollover is defined for the instrument, all open positions and orders are automatically rolled-over to the next futures contract. In order to nullify the impact on the valuation of the open position, given the change in the underlying instrument’s rate (price) for the new contract period, a compensating adjustment is made to the account. Stop Orders and Limit Orders are also adjusted, to reflect the rate (price) of the instrument in the new contract.

The value of your position continues to reflect the impact of market movement based on your original opening level, size and spread. If the new contract is trading at a higher price, Buy positions will receive a negative adjustment, and Sell positions will receive a positive adjustment. Conversely, if the new contract is trading at a lower price, Buy positions will receive a positive adjustment, and Sell positions will receive a negative adjustment.
Example of rollover adjustment calculation:
You hold a Buy position of 100 contracts of Oil futures.
Oil futures rates at the time of rollover:
Existing contract Buy rate = $61.30
Existing contract Sell rate = $ 61.25
New contract Buy rate = $62.50
New contract Sell rate = $ 62.45

Adjustments calculation:
Sell Rate Difference = [New contract sell rate] - [Existing contract sell rate] = $62.45 - $61.25 = $1.20
Buy Position Adjustment = - ([Amount of contracts] * [Sell rate difference]) = - (100 * $1.20) = - $120
Summary: You will continue to hold the same position of 100 contracts of Oil futures. An adjustment of -$120 will be added/subtracted. Your equity remains the same.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,327
  • Nov 11, 2019 9:47am Nov 11, 2019 9:47am
/NG. Unusually high pending order's waiting. It looks it came from a single trader. What's his intention....?
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,328
  • Nov 11, 2019 10:21am Nov 11, 2019 10:21am
Quoting heispark
/NG. Unusually high pending order's waiting. It looks it came from a single trader. What's his intention....? {image}
Ok, no one dares to challenge that strong buyer...... at least for now....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,329
  • Nov 11, 2019 10:30am Nov 11, 2019 10:30am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Ok, no one dares to challenge that strong buyer...... at least for now.... {image}
Retesting..... who gonna win?
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,330
  • Nov 11, 2019 10:46am Nov 11, 2019 10:46am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Retesting..... who gonna win? {image}
Actually, when viewed in higher level view, there are a bunch of big buyers waiting.... They can be genuine orders or just spoofers.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,331
  • Nov 11, 2019 9:30pm Nov 11, 2019 9:30pm
How to Start Day Trading Natural Gas
https://www.thebalance.com/how-to-st...al-gas-1031367

The price of natural gas fluctuates from moment to moment, as it is publicly traded on an exchange. The price of natural gas is determined by global supply and demand for the physical commodity, as well as the expectations and supply and demand from traders. Day traders don't assess the "real" value of natural gas. Instead, day traders profit from daily price fluctuations in the commodity, attempting to make money whether it rises, falls or its value stays nearly the same.

Futures Markets
Day trading natural gas is speculating on its short-term price movements. Physical natural gas isn't handled or taken possession of, rather all the trading transactions take place electronically and only profits or losses are reflected in the trading account.

There are a number of ways to day trade natural gas. One way is through a futures contract. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell something--like natural gas, gold, or wheat--at a future date. Day traders close out all contracts (trades) each day and make a profit or loss on each trade based on the difference between the price they bought the contract and the price they sold it.

Natural gas futures trade through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group). There are several types of natural gas, and contracts, which can be traded. The most heavily traded contract, preferred by day traders, is the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG). Each contract represents 10,000 million British thermal units (mmBtu).

On the futures exchange, the price of natural gas (NG) fluctuates in $0.001 increments. This increment is called a "tick"--it's the smallest movement a futures contract can make. If you buy or sell a futures contract, how many ticks the price moves away from your entry price determines your profit or loss. To calculate your profit or loss (your trading platform shows you, but it's good to understand how it works) you'll first need to know the tick value of the contract you're trading.

For a Natural Gas contract (NG) the tick value is $10. This is because the contract represents 10,000 mmBtu, and 10,000 mmBtu multiplied by the $0.001 tick size results in $10. That means for each contract, a one tick movement will result in a profit or loss of $10. If it moves 5 ticks, you win or lose $50. If it moves 5 ticks and you're holding 3 contracts, your profit or loss is $150.

Trading Accounts and Margin
The amount you need in your account to day trade a natural gas (NG) futures contract depends on your futures broker. NinjaTrader for example, requires you have $1000 in your account to open a day trading position for one natural gas (NG) contract. You also need enough in the account to accommodate for potential losses (need much more than $1000).
These figures assume you're day trading and closing out positions before the market closes each day. If you hold positions overnight, you are subject to Initial Margin and Maintenance Margin requirements, which will require you have more money in your account.

ETFs and Stock Market NG Plays
Another way to day trade natural gas is through a fund which trades on a stock exchange, like the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). Or, if seeking a more volatile option (moves three times as much each day), the 3X Long Natural Gas ETN. If you have a stock trading account you can trade the price movements in natural gas.
The 3X Inverse Natual Gas ETN (DGAZ) is another popular natural gas ETF. Since it is an inverse fund, it moves in the opposite direction of the natural gas price, on a daily basis.
The intraday price movements of these products are reflective of daily (not long-term) percentage price changes in natural gas.
The products trade like stocks. The minimum price movement is $0.01, therefore you make or lose $0.01 for each share you own each time the price changes by a penny. Stocks and ETFs are typically traded in 100 share blocks (called lots) so if the price moves a penny and you're holding 100 shares, you make or lose $1. If the price moves $1, from $5 to $6, you make or lose $100 on your 100 share position. If you are holding 500 shares, you make or lose $500 on that same price move.
The amount you need in your account to day trade a natural gas ETF depends on the price of the ETF, your leverage, and position size.
To become a day trader of stocks or ETFs in the U.S., you need to have a $25,000 minimum trading account balance. Depending on how much income you want to generate and your leverage, you may wish to have more than $25,000 available to you.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,332
  • Nov 11, 2019 9:31pm Nov 11, 2019 9:31pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Why Leveraged ETFs Are Not a Long-Term Bet https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...al-gas.337650/
UGAZ Decay Quantified: A Sure Path To Lose Money
https://www.askfinny.com/bite/UGAZ-h...cay-quantified

Today, the shares of VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ) fell more than 12%, causing a lot of panic selling. The perennial debate among investors in 3X ETN securities is to whether to hold those securities or sell them and recognize the loss when such steep declines occur.

The purpose of this Finstead Bite is to help you realize how much money you're losing by investing long-term in securities with pronounced decays, such as UGAZ. We will quantify the decay for UGAZ.

First, let's cover the basics. UGAZ is an exchange-traded note based on the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Excess Return Index. It is intended for sophisticated investors to manage daily trading risks. UGAZ is significantly riskier than securities with long-term investment objectives and is predominantly used by day traders.

What many investors don't understand is that UGAZ price is only indirectly tied to the price of natural gas. UGAZ attempts to be a direct derivative (+3X) of the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Excess Return Index, but often doesn't accomplish this mission, particularly in the longer term.

This S&P GSCI Natural Gas Excess Return Index is composed entirely of natural gas futures contracts and is derived by reference to the price levels of the futures contracts on natural gas, along with the discount or premium obtained by rolling hypothetical positions in such contracts forward as they approach delivery.

Now, let's look at the UGAZ price for two dates where the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Excess Return Index roughly had the same value, 10.3. The Index achieved this value on March 4, 2016, and December 5, 2017. UGAZ end-of-day price on the former date was 17.92, and it was 7.54 on the latter day.


Date NatGas ER Index UGAZ price ($)
03/04/2016 10.3 17.92
12/05/2017 10.3 7.54


Between those two dates, UGAZ price declined -58%, while the Index stayed flat.

If you annualize the impact of decay, the loss you can expect to see by investing in UGAZ is -39% per annum. That means, for every $10,000 invested in UGAZ at the beginning of the year, you should expect to see $6,100 at the end of the year assuming no change to the Natural Gas Excess Return Index.

The takeaway is simple: do not invest in UGAZ long term, because the consequences may be catastrophic.

UGAZ long-term return confirms this point. Over the last year, UGAZ returned -74.21% (see the chart below).

---------------------------------------


The Advantages and Disadvantages of Leveraged ETFs
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/adva...tfs-2016-06-07

Leveraged ETFs, it seems, are back in fashion. Following the stock market crash in 2008/9 “leverage” was a dirty word. In too many instances, while markets were booming, small investors were encouraged by advisors to invest in funds designed to give 2 or 3 times the return on a particular index or product. What was not properly explained in many cases was that these products were designed for traders rather than long term investors and, along with the high returns, carried a high degree of risk.
When the market collapsed, a lot of people got burned and lawsuits abounded. By the time I started my short stint as an advisor at a Wall Street firm, we were forbidden from using leveraged ETFs in customers’ accounts. Over the last few years though, as ETF use in general has expanded, leveraged products have made a comeback.
According to a Bloomberg article from October of last year, about 4 times as many leveraged ETFs were launched in that year as compared to 2014. Is that a good thing for investors, or a sign of the coming Apocalypse?
There is no doubt that leveraged funds have their place. With my current focus on energy products I use them frequently, particularly UWTI, DWTI, UGAZ, and DGAZ the three times leveraged bull and bear WTI and natural gas ETFs.
However, I have decades of experience in dealing rooms, so risk assessment and control is second nature to me. For the average investor, they offer a great opportunity in certain circumstances, but it is important to know how they work and the risks involved.
First and foremost, a statement of the obvious; if leveraged ETFs offer the prospect of two or three times the return on an index or commodity, they also result in two or three times the losses if the market goes against you. As obvious as that may sound it was a lack of full understanding of that that led to so many problems during the recession.
If you use these products it is important that you have something in place to control that risk. I would never buy one without placing a firm, GTC stop loss order to limit potential losses. Stop losses are not perfect as they are executed at the next available price if your level is hit but they do stop you from running a position into the ground.
By using stop losses that limit you to a maximum risk of, say, 10 percent of capital invested and having a target price where you will take a profit you also effectively limit the time that you will hold a position in these products, which brings us to another important risk factor: Leveraged ETFs are designed for short term use.
They use futures to achieve leverage and that distorts returns over time. Most futures contracts trade in a state known as “contango” in which contracts with longer settlement dates are more expensive than those with shorter dates. That means that each time approaching expiration necessitates selling an expiring contract and buying the next one out the fund incurs a small loss.
If you add the fees that are charged to cover the expenses and profits of the issuing company to that built in loss, it is fairly obvious that if the underlying market or product doesn’t move you will lose money on these ETFs. Those factors also mean that profits will usually be a little less than the stated two or three times the move in the underlying product, while losses will be slightly more. The longer you hold the ETF the more exaggerated that differential becomes.
Put all of this together and several things should become clear. Leveraged ETFs can be useful in a couple of ways. Products such as SDS, a 3x leveraged Bear S&P 500 ETF, can be used for short term portfolio insurance if you fear a correction in the market, or leveraged commodity ETFs such as those mentioned above, or NUGT and DUST which offer a leveraged play on gold, can be used for short term bets on commodities without having to open a futures account.
That, however, is about it. They are not suitable for long term plays, nor should they be used by anybody who either doesn’t understand, or isn’t comfortable with, the enhanced risk involved. As long as that is fully understood this time around, then the proliferation of leveraged ETFs just means that there are more tools for smart traders and investors, and is not a cause for concern.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,333
  • Nov 11, 2019 9:34pm Nov 11, 2019 9:34pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Maybe not...... ? Basically, Futures is not designed for longer term investment......... Rollover Risk http://what-when-how.com/finance/rollover-risk-finance/ Traders will often maintain a long-term position in a futures market by holding a contract until near to its maturity, closing out the position and establishing a new position of similar size in a contract with a longer maturity. This is known as rolling a position forward. In following such a strategy the trader faces certain risks which would...
Long term chart of /NG and S&P GSCI Natural Gas Excess Return Index (the base index on which most NG ETFs and ETNs are based) are not matching. Extended expiration futures are very illiquid with high premium. I've concluded that there's no cost effective way for long term Natural Gas investment...... Too bad.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,334
  • Nov 12, 2019 6:17am Nov 12, 2019 6:17am
/NG
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,335
  • Nov 12, 2019 8:41am Nov 12, 2019 8:41am
I purchased the most expensive plan of TraingView but it still asks me more money to watch charts with real time feed. That's why I am ditching TradingView. Thinkorswim is free and everything's real-time.
UGAZ
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,336
  • Nov 12, 2019 10:49am Nov 12, 2019 10:49am
Quoting heispark
/NG {image}{image}
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,337
  • Nov 13, 2019 1:18am Nov 13, 2019 1:18am
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index (SPGSNG) and Bloomberg Natural Gas Index (BCOMNG). Freely available from Thinkorswim. These are not available even in the most expensive plan of TradingView.
(pre market)
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,338
  • Nov 14, 2019 12:09pm Nov 14, 2019 12:09pm
/NG. Unusually huge 1012 pending contracts are sitting @ 2.725.... looks like a spoofer depending the gap...
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,339
  • Nov 14, 2019 5:55pm Nov 14, 2019 5:55pm
Quoting heispark
Some people believe Ricky Gutierrez is a scam but I personally think he's a legit. He makes live real time trading videos and shares his live TD Ameritrade trading statement. He made it in his early age while many people are still struggling even after 10 years of learning. He's born as a genius.... I feel jealous... At least, you can find something to learn how to use VWAP effectively from his strategy. I also like his simple strategy using only a couple of indicators. His main...
I was also always curious why he mostly focuses on UGAZ or DGAZ..... Here he answers.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,340
  • Nov 15, 2019 11:55pm Nov 15, 2019 11:55pm
Rediscovering MACD.... I am not very familiar with MACD and only recently added it to my indicators toolbox.
It's amazing to see this pretty old indicator still works in this algo era....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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